$BTC - Last Short before Pivot to Bulishness: Near $15,825 *SMT*

27 Sep 2022

*SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is regarding what price action will do - 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines,etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) Halfway points in fair value gaps, order blocks, Breakers, are always a price to aim for. Support and resistance onnly exist to protect profits, as soon as an institution wants more, they'll all use the same Options strategy amd that's then Support and resistance is broken. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.*

Bitcoin - It dropped pretty hard after entering a 4 hour fair value gap. This is called an institutional order flow entry drill (IOFED). It drops down to "Support" To where retailers would probably start buying. However, If you haven't done a monthly time dframe analysis on this chart, you will be lost. There is a monthly fair value gap below current market price. After the current price hit support and came back up it then hit a bearish order block followed by another (IOFED) And this is where I believe the price will definitely take a dive as most retail positions are buying.
Here's the chart depicting such safe support and retail buying in one area


Options on the Bitcoin micro, for an institution to protect their asset would buy a put and buy a call. Therefor if it reaches the put strike price they can excericise the right to buy at that price and they want it lower so they can buy at a discount. So institutions know what retail is doing there for they can sell their assets and short the future/option to hedge against the sell. to get the price to start dropping. Once retail sees that it is dropping further than they want, then they eill start selling with Institutions pushing it down further. Institutions usually knmow the gap theory and will end their option/future at the midway of the monthly fair value gap and start buying up again at an enormous amount because this time it will be in the 15k range. This is about an 80% pullback from the previous low, which is exactly how the chart from 2017/2018 acted. So this should be the last hurrah of a drop. It can fill up the entire Fair value gap below but it doesn't have to. We'll just have to wait and see.
Heres a chart of the monthly and where that fair value gap is.

That gold line is the imbalance that price wants to fill.
2017 80% pullback VS 2022 80% Pullback
1. 2017/18

2. 2022


At first you were probabbly scratching your head or laughing at my idea. But go back and look through my last 5-6 ideas. I've pretty much been spot on the more I am involved in studying smart money. At least getting near an entry zone and hitting a take 1 profit. Thats All I need daily and I can do this for a living.

What do you think? Is 16k ish too low? or do you think lower? Why?

I think we're nearing the end of the pullback journey. based on history and Smart Money Technical Analaysis.

Also the Commitment of traders report has the institutions adding shorts to their positions. See barchart.com chart, so if the institutions believe it's still shorting, why wouldn't we? See below Barchart CoT. It's the indicator at the bottom of the chart, and the red line represents Institutional Positions. As you can see it's lowering which means it's adding more net shorts.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/BAU22/interactive-chart

So good luck and happy trading.

BTCUSD
BTCUSD

28 Sep 2022

Catatan

Price has went up into my second entry. Interestinly enough it has manufactured a liquidity line just below the 15 min bearish order block. Additionally, on the 4 hour, the Williams %R indicator (velocity indicator) shows we're gaining velocity but not yet a huge amount. If I read the price action and velocity, I'm thinking the iron will strike up at the 15 min bearish order block, and the velocity will go up with it and will be over sold. Retail will believe its a breakout and start buying, when they don't realize that it's hit the bearish order block. And then at that point start to retrace back down.
15 min chart

4 hour (look at bottom indicator


Just my interpretation of what's happening. Waiting to see if it's going to jump up to the order block before I add another short onto my position. Because the Commitment of traders report cam out and it shows more shorts on Bitcoin by the Institutions.

28 Sep 2022

Catatan

Boom called it

28 Sep 2022

Catatan

Price has also hit a daily bearish orde block. After the close of the day, there will be a fair value gap left in between yeday's day candle and the start of tomorrows day candle. My only concern is that will it be sooner or later that it will want to fill trhat gap? It did not break structure so it may be sooner. which means I may be ok with my current calL. If later, it may just run up into the 4 hour fair value gap at the top of my stop loss and consolidate before falling back down. Those are the two scenarios you hope for as a bearish short holder right now.

3 Okt 2022

Trade aktif

It may look like theres a lot going on right now, but it's just because I have a lot labeled. Right at market open Price ran up into the 4 hour bearish order block and that was also near the Consequential Encroachment (halfway between) of the 4and 1 hour Fair Value Gap that was created on 9/27. 19512 was consequential enchroachment ant 19437 was the 4 hour bearish order block. (I have both as dashed yellow lines) I was able To land a nice sized short in between the two at 19440 (On one account I've started there and on another account my entry price is 19160. So I'm above where I had originally started giving me more ground to move short and more leverage to play with. now i'm setting it up for one account to take of 35% and the other 50% at the first take profit near 18487 as that should be where two equal lows have formed and it should be crossing that line below before heading to the Monthly Fair Value Gap That is My Target below.

3 Okt 2022

Trade aktif

Once it gets below 18487 then we should see a little bounce up into another bearish order block that it has created or wil create near 18800, If it does do the bounce that I'm expecting, I would add another short here and expect it to trade lower to 18153 ish in which I will probably take another 5-10% from each position from each account off as profit. If it moves up from here, then I'm gonna grit my teeth and hang on to my stop loss.

3 Okt 2022

Catatan

And Lastly after looking at the 1 hour chart, there is a possibility it does hit the 1 hour Bullish Order Block which could then reject it above where it is now and into the 1 hour fair value gap that occurred on the 2nd. That could send price up to the premium before moving back down to where I am expecting it.

3 Okt 2022

Catatan

I hate to be like "See, I told ya" But it did exactly what I said it weould do on my last update, it followed the 1 hour to the Fair Value Gap and to it's premium of the 4 hour FVG. It mitigated the 1 hour FVG and the last two hours high of the body was the premium, the previous 2 hours fit almos exactly inside the 1 hour FVG. So, I threw another short on it at the premium $19,600, Avg entrance is 19490 on one account and and $19,233 on the main.

3 Okt 2022

Catatan

Ok, if you drop down one more time frame you'll see the 15 min FVG had a bullish candle rip and through it but oin the way down it was mitigated, however, there is still a FVG on the way up, so there;s a possibility that it could still go up to fill in the 15 min FVG up to 19860 and the botom is around current price 19630, That would bring about an 80% pullback to the upside, where most pullbacks complete, giving a lot of retail traders hope, and start going long, before shorting again. Be Wary of price near $19860.

4 Okt 2022

Catatan

Technically we're still not out. However, we're on the brink. I did have to hedge against this by taking a long position in Ethereum That saved my about 75% what I am in the red right now for BTC. And more bad news is that there is a daily Fair Value Gap above my stop loss. But I'm still not convinced we're bullish just yet. We haven't broken upside structure. So I did have to extend my STOP LOSS to 22,100. Additionally, I'm Amining fpor one Last entry in case it does get above my stop loss and that entry is at 21050 is where I'm aiming. I might open up another poaition in another account I have just for this entry.

But yeah I'm in the red, I should've analyzed the upside more as that's where it would convince people to go long before shorting. So if it does get up above the nearest High and close on a daily, maybe weekly level, I might turn my sights in another direction. But There's been nothing for me to analyzed that's made me change my original game plan. Just extended my stop loss and added a new entry possibility for another account. Also, Hedging against BTC with an ETH long saved me as well. But that's the types of decisions I like to make. Here's where we're at now and What I expect to play out going into the daily FVG ENTERING AT 21050 short and seeing if that's my last Gasp. Like I said, still have not broken daily structure so I'm still looking to the downside