🔥 Predicting Bitcoin's Price On The 2024 Halving: Dump Ahead?

In this analysis I want to shed some light on an interesting relationship that I found between bear-market bottroms and the price of Bitcoin during the halving. This analysis is speculative and based on 2 previous occurences, so take it with a grain of salt.

The relationship that I found is as follows:

2nd halving: price at halving = 300% off the bottom.
3rd halving: price at halving = 200% off the bottom.
Percentages rounded to hundreds. Omitting first halving because market was not mature.

So my assumption would be that the price on the 4th halving, the next one, would be 100% from the 15.500$ bottom, so around 31.000$

With BTC reversing after the ETF launch, a move towards 31.000$ is not even that far-fetched, since it functioned as a very important resistance of the majority of 2023 and therefore functions as a magnet.

Do you think this is a reasonable analysis? Happy to hear your thoughts!