Another day of boring Bitcoin action! Price still hovers around critical support. The crowd started calling 8k, 7k or even 6k. Who knows! But there is one thing we know for sure, Bitcoin is setting up for a clear pathway to our current ATH - 20k. Are you ready for this?
Retracement is always healthy:
We had completed the fifth wave of the interim fractal cycle as we have been going through 67 days of broad correction. As the price lingers within 5% volatility around 10k mark, this correction looks forward to ranging in a tighter zone between 10k - 10.6k if this critical support holds. However, price action in the last 4 days has shown a higher possibility of reaching lower support. Daily candles no longer show long bottom wicks and are progressing within the critical range. As long positions start getting squeezed, we will see a dramatic sell-off to 8.1k - 8.8k lower support, which is 0.5 retracement of the whole interim fractal cycle.
It is plausible that we have entered the broader second wave. Either the scenarios play out, long-lasting consolidation is expected to happen and only then we can safely enter a fresh long position.
What about 6k?
Possibly! When Bitcoin hit 7.4k on 4th of Dec last year and undertook 2 months of hovering around this critical support, the market dipped to 3.1k. So 6k is still on the table! However, it's not about which level the price will fall, it's portfolio management and discipline. As mentioned before, until Bitcoin consolidates enough in a tight area, we will enter.
Catching bottom requires years of experience, courage and sometimes luck. One common tactic can be used is 30/30/40. That is accumulating 30% of our disbursement on the highly liquid price-falling trading session. The next 30% applies the same tactic and the last 40% goes to clear trend-reversal trading session.
The pathway to ATH is clear:
YES! It is very clear as we have stepped into the broader second wave. Buy the dip, put it away and enjoy the impulsive third wave!
In for a penny, in for a pound:
Anyone can set the pathway but not many can complete the journey. Pathway to one’s heaven is never a “sunshine and rainbows” road. It is full of rocks and stones. Holding an asset long-term is full of ups and downs that only the ones with strong belief and mindset could hold.
Who would’ve known Amazon could hit 2k when it was going through dot-com crisis. In fact, after hitting $105 in late 1999, the company had retraced 93% and gone through 10 years lingering before topping ATH again. For those who held Amazon through sticks and stones, their effort has paid off when Amazon hit 2k not once, BUT TWICE.
Bitcoin is a lot younger than Amazon but has already been through four major market cycles with each one retracing more than 80%. Who knows where Bitcoin could head to, but there’s one thing we know - Curiosity kills the cat and impatience kills the man.
Rule #1: Never lose money:
One of the very basic lessons about investing is to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This is improbable as no-one ever knows the ultimate bottoms and the absolute tops. Either you are a long-term investor or a day-trader, one of the most important rules is to manage your portfolio. One can enjoy 3000% return but loses 95% of their portfolio after, is still profitable but it is not a healthy practice over the long term. Portfolio erosion comes from one or a combination of factors:
1. Ineffective cut-loss discipline,
2. Inventory erosion due to personal business,
3. Inefficient trades due to “market feeling” or emotions.
Bring home the bacon, don’t cash in your chips !
And “Rule #2: Never forget RULE #1!” - Warren Buffet
Retracement is always healthy:
We had completed the fifth wave of the interim fractal cycle as we have been going through 67 days of broad correction. As the price lingers within 5% volatility around 10k mark, this correction looks forward to ranging in a tighter zone between 10k - 10.6k if this critical support holds. However, price action in the last 4 days has shown a higher possibility of reaching lower support. Daily candles no longer show long bottom wicks and are progressing within the critical range. As long positions start getting squeezed, we will see a dramatic sell-off to 8.1k - 8.8k lower support, which is 0.5 retracement of the whole interim fractal cycle.
It is plausible that we have entered the broader second wave. Either the scenarios play out, long-lasting consolidation is expected to happen and only then we can safely enter a fresh long position.
What about 6k?
Possibly! When Bitcoin hit 7.4k on 4th of Dec last year and undertook 2 months of hovering around this critical support, the market dipped to 3.1k. So 6k is still on the table! However, it's not about which level the price will fall, it's portfolio management and discipline. As mentioned before, until Bitcoin consolidates enough in a tight area, we will enter.
Catching bottom requires years of experience, courage and sometimes luck. One common tactic can be used is 30/30/40. That is accumulating 30% of our disbursement on the highly liquid price-falling trading session. The next 30% applies the same tactic and the last 40% goes to clear trend-reversal trading session.
The pathway to ATH is clear:
YES! It is very clear as we have stepped into the broader second wave. Buy the dip, put it away and enjoy the impulsive third wave!
In for a penny, in for a pound:
Anyone can set the pathway but not many can complete the journey. Pathway to one’s heaven is never a “sunshine and rainbows” road. It is full of rocks and stones. Holding an asset long-term is full of ups and downs that only the ones with strong belief and mindset could hold.
Who would’ve known Amazon could hit 2k when it was going through dot-com crisis. In fact, after hitting $105 in late 1999, the company had retraced 93% and gone through 10 years lingering before topping ATH again. For those who held Amazon through sticks and stones, their effort has paid off when Amazon hit 2k not once, BUT TWICE.
Bitcoin is a lot younger than Amazon but has already been through four major market cycles with each one retracing more than 80%. Who knows where Bitcoin could head to, but there’s one thing we know - Curiosity kills the cat and impatience kills the man.
Rule #1: Never lose money:
One of the very basic lessons about investing is to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This is improbable as no-one ever knows the ultimate bottoms and the absolute tops. Either you are a long-term investor or a day-trader, one of the most important rules is to manage your portfolio. One can enjoy 3000% return but loses 95% of their portfolio after, is still profitable but it is not a healthy practice over the long term. Portfolio erosion comes from one or a combination of factors:
1. Ineffective cut-loss discipline,
2. Inventory erosion due to personal business,
3. Inefficient trades due to “market feeling” or emotions.
Bring home the bacon, don’t cash in your chips !
And “Rule #2: Never forget RULE #1!” - Warren Buffet
