Bitcoin has entered price discovery, new ATH being just under 64k. With the biggest schelling point ever, 100k per Bitcoin, being only +50% away, the risk to reward at these heights has become a question mark to me. Bitcoin was so grossly underpriced for years, that it's strange to finally realise it could be getting close to it's current "fair price".
Just to provide a reality check, 10k to 60k was 500%. Going from 64k to 100k is roughly 50%. I feel holding Bitcoin at $64k without a clear exit plan and invalidation level is getting risky, at least from swing trading perspective.
I want to see >70k in the next 1-2 weeks, since we already consolidated for 1-2 months. If we start ranging again around 60k, things are starting to get weird. 50MA is at 55k, but I've contemplated moving my stop-loss level even higher, currently considering 60k.
8h close < 60k, I'm hedged. >60k, I'm long.
This type of strategy will eat you alive during a ranging market, but bull markets tend to trend aggressively during the mid to late stages. Also we just saw a month long consolidation, leading to a breakout upwards. For these reasons, I believe using a simple swing trading system in the current market environment is very much justified.
Just to provide a reality check, 10k to 60k was 500%. Going from 64k to 100k is roughly 50%. I feel holding Bitcoin at $64k without a clear exit plan and invalidation level is getting risky, at least from swing trading perspective.
I want to see >70k in the next 1-2 weeks, since we already consolidated for 1-2 months. If we start ranging again around 60k, things are starting to get weird. 50MA is at 55k, but I've contemplated moving my stop-loss level even higher, currently considering 60k.
8h close < 60k, I'm hedged. >60k, I'm long.
This type of strategy will eat you alive during a ranging market, but bull markets tend to trend aggressively during the mid to late stages. Also we just saw a month long consolidation, leading to a breakout upwards. For these reasons, I believe using a simple swing trading system in the current market environment is very much justified.
Komentar:
Another marginally higher high leading to big sell off, this is super concerning. Either this is the mother of all bull traps or the top is in.
Komentar:
I think the best move risk to reward wise is to hedge at a re-test of either 55k or 60k.
Komentar:
A lot of data suggesting this could've been a bull trap:
"- 7b liquidations in 1 hr
- futures in backwardation
- low liquidity on a weekend
- massive arbs between exchanges
- spot bids stacked "
"- 7b liquidations in 1 hr
- futures in backwardation
- low liquidity on a weekend
- massive arbs between exchanges
- spot bids stacked "
I don't think panic selling the free fall now at 52k is the move, I'm looking to get a bounce first before deciding what to do. If we nuke straight to 40ks, then be it.