BTC → Bitcoin Sell-off at $45,800! Time to Short? Let's Answer.
Bitcoin made it to the measured move target at $45,800 which was followed by a massive 11% sell-off in the course of an hour. This is the second major sell-off at these levels in under a month. Is this the opportune time to short?
How do we trade this? 🤔
We have several data points in favor of a short. We've completed a Measured Move, three legs up in a bull trend, two massive sell-offs (8% and 11%) in under a month at the major resistance level of $46,000 and an RSI under its Moving Average. I also have my Bitcoin Lifetime Analysis which describes in far more detail, why we need a massive pullback before we see new all-time highs:
We need to wait for a 4HR candle to close below its 200EMA or a Daily candle to close below its 30EMA. You could argue its reasonable to short now, but we lack confirmation, so the probability of profit is lower at this stage. I prefer more probability in my trades.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: $42,600
🟥 Stop Loss: $46,900
✅ Take Profit: $38,300
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Measured Move Complete!
2. Two Sell-offs near the $45,000 area
3. Three Legs Up in a Bull Channel
4. RSI at 52.00 and below Moving Average, Bias to Short.
5. Wait for Final Sell signal, Short 1:1 Risk/Reward.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
There is over a 60% chance of a measured move after the breakout of a major resistance, normally, a trading range. That means the distance from the trading range resistance, to the top of the breakout, will happen again above the top of the breakout.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
How do we trade this? 🤔
We have several data points in favor of a short. We've completed a Measured Move, three legs up in a bull trend, two massive sell-offs (8% and 11%) in under a month at the major resistance level of $46,000 and an RSI under its Moving Average. I also have my Bitcoin Lifetime Analysis which describes in far more detail, why we need a massive pullback before we see new all-time highs:
We need to wait for a 4HR candle to close below its 200EMA or a Daily candle to close below its 30EMA. You could argue its reasonable to short now, but we lack confirmation, so the probability of profit is lower at this stage. I prefer more probability in my trades.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: $42,600
🟥 Stop Loss: $46,900
✅ Take Profit: $38,300
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Measured Move Complete!
2. Two Sell-offs near the $45,000 area
3. Three Legs Up in a Bull Channel
4. RSI at 52.00 and below Moving Average, Bias to Short.
5. Wait for Final Sell signal, Short 1:1 Risk/Reward.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
There is over a 60% chance of a measured move after the breakout of a major resistance, normally, a trading range. That means the distance from the trading range resistance, to the top of the breakout, will happen again above the top of the breakout.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
-Joe Dean
Trader Engineering Course
**Available Now at TraderEngineering.com**
Trader Engineering Course
**Available Now at TraderEngineering.com**
Publikasi terkait
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.