Good Friday morning, traders. We made it through the week and now, with the weekend upon us, absolutely anything is possible in this market. At this point, we still have the $7900 target from the IHS and price continues to hover around $7400/$7500. The TFs don't get overbought until the 4H, which means that there's room for price to break and run a bit. Speaking of the 4H, it has remained overbought for four days now. We know a pullback is needed, the question is when will we see it?
Price continues to sit just under the daily cloud and appears to be printing a bullish pennant. During last night's TA video, I discussed the possibility of price making a very large move up from this area based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that pennant. If it starts around $6200, then that sets up a target of around $8900/$9000. I just don't see price having that much juice behind it at the moment after the previous movement up. However, if the overhead supply zone fails to contain price, then as I have continued to mention, there are a ton of shorts that would likely rush to cover as that zone is significant and its breach should see price ultimately targeting $10K+. This would also put price above the large descending wedge's resistance line as well as the daily cloud (the latter not having been seen since January 2018). So, a narrative could be carved that would support such a move.
If, instead, we just take the flagpole from the previous start of the most recent large movement up which is the $6700/$6800 area, then price should target $8400/$8500. This is the area where I have previously said I could see price reaching during Wave 5 because it lines up pretty well with the daily pivot from two periods ago which sits at $8470. Personally, I prefer this movement as it allows price to then correct back toward the supply zone it pushed through to get there, which should become a demand zone, as well as the top of the daily cloud and the descending resistance line which should become support. In other words, that move would turn the current area of confluence of resistance into a confluence of support. It would also better fit what should be happening in terms of a Wyckoff accumulation period as I outlined a while ago.
The final possibility on a move up lies in the pennant, itself. If the pattern is nothing more than a symmetrical triangle (due to the fact that it doesn't actually start with the flagpole), then price should be targeting the height of the triangle upon breakout. In this case, that should see price only targeting the $7800/$7900 area which would complete the subwave 5 of the Wave 3 as I outlined the other day.
Failure of price to breach the recent high of $7600 on July 18th should result in a retracement (Wave 4), possibly as far as the $7100 area. This of course would be a positive step as price recoups and prepares for that aforementioned push through the strong confluence of resistance. The longer this drags out at the current level, however, the less inclined I am to believe we will have that particular retracement prior to the push through. Alts have continued to slowly bleed while BTC dominance has increased during this time as well. This often portends a legitimate bull run. I have been mentioning for a few months now that I wanted to see BTC dominance breach 46% as doing so would give us a higher low and higher high since January 2018 which would denote a bullish trend in that dominance. Currently, it is sitting at 45.2%.
Price continues to sit just under the daily cloud and appears to be printing a bullish pennant. During last night's TA video, I discussed the possibility of price making a very large move up from this area based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that pennant. If it starts around $6200, then that sets up a target of around $8900/$9000. I just don't see price having that much juice behind it at the moment after the previous movement up. However, if the overhead supply zone fails to contain price, then as I have continued to mention, there are a ton of shorts that would likely rush to cover as that zone is significant and its breach should see price ultimately targeting $10K+. This would also put price above the large descending wedge's resistance line as well as the daily cloud (the latter not having been seen since January 2018). So, a narrative could be carved that would support such a move.
If, instead, we just take the flagpole from the previous start of the most recent large movement up which is the $6700/$6800 area, then price should target $8400/$8500. This is the area where I have previously said I could see price reaching during Wave 5 because it lines up pretty well with the daily pivot from two periods ago which sits at $8470. Personally, I prefer this movement as it allows price to then correct back toward the supply zone it pushed through to get there, which should become a demand zone, as well as the top of the daily cloud and the descending resistance line which should become support. In other words, that move would turn the current area of confluence of resistance into a confluence of support. It would also better fit what should be happening in terms of a Wyckoff accumulation period as I outlined a while ago.
The final possibility on a move up lies in the pennant, itself. If the pattern is nothing more than a symmetrical triangle (due to the fact that it doesn't actually start with the flagpole), then price should be targeting the height of the triangle upon breakout. In this case, that should see price only targeting the $7800/$7900 area which would complete the subwave 5 of the Wave 3 as I outlined the other day.
Failure of price to breach the recent high of $7600 on July 18th should result in a retracement (Wave 4), possibly as far as the $7100 area. This of course would be a positive step as price recoups and prepares for that aforementioned push through the strong confluence of resistance. The longer this drags out at the current level, however, the less inclined I am to believe we will have that particular retracement prior to the push through. Alts have continued to slowly bleed while BTC dominance has increased during this time as well. This often portends a legitimate bull run. I have been mentioning for a few months now that I wanted to see BTC dominance breach 46% as doing so would give us a higher low and higher high since January 2018 which would denote a bullish trend in that dominance. Currently, it is sitting at 45.2%.
