Fair & Real bitcoin price part 4. The Halving 2020 (Reward 6.25)

Hello there and welcome to my analysis.

First of all it is important to know what is this update about so check the previous TA which explains what is this chart about more closely

Now when you know what are these green and blue lines you might realize there is a blue oval in current TA highlighting the jump for both of these.
Now you might ask why did that happend ?

Well It happend because of the halving
What is it ?

A Bitcoin halving event is when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half.
This event also cuts in half Bitcoin's inflation rate and the rate at which new Bitcoins enter circulation.
Both previous halvings have correlated with intense boom and bust cycles that have ended with higher prices than prior to the event.

Guess why :)
I do expect because of this event jump of BTC towards ATH (20K) till EOY just BTW

I do recommend you to check also my long term analysis which includes halving, fractals data and much more

Current Reward is: 6.25
Reward-Drop ETA date: 11 May 2024 (1445 Days to Block Reward Halving 3.125) at the time of writing (27.5.2020)


More about Halving just below
------------------------------------
,,
Halving

Every 210,000 blocks mined, or about every four years, the reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions is cut in half. This cuts in half the rate at which new Bitcoin is released into circulation. This is Bitcoin's way of using a synthetic form of inflation that halves every four years until all Bitcoin is released and is In circulation.

This system will continue until around 2140. At that point, miners will be rewarded with fees for processing transactions that network users will pay. These fees ensure that miners still have the incentive to mine and keep the network going. The idea is that competition for these fees will cause them to remain low after halvings are finished.

The halving is significant because it marks another step in Bitcoin's dwindling finite supply. There are only 21,000,000 Bitcoins in existence. At the time of writing, there are 18,361,438 Bitcoins already in circulation, leaving just 2,638,562 left to be released via mining rewards.

In 2009, the reward for each block in the chain mined was 50 Bitcoins. After the first halving it was 25, then 12.5, and come May 11th, 2020 It will be 6.25 Bitcoins per block. To put this in another context, imagine if the amount of gold mined out of the earth was cut In half every four years. If gold's value is based on its scarcity, then a "halving" of gold output every four years would theoretically drive its price higher.

These halvings reduce the rate at which new coins are created and thus lower the available supply. This can cause some implications for investors as other assets with low supply, like gold, can have high demand and push prices higher.

In the past, these Bitcoin halvings have correlated with massive surges in Bitcoin's price. The first halving, which occurred in November of 2012, saw an increase from about $11 to nearly $1,150. The second Bitcoin halving occurred in July of 2016. The price at that halving was about $650 and by December 16th, 2017, Bitcoin's price had soared to nearly $20,000. The price then fell over the course of a year from this peak down to around $3,200, a price nearly 400% higher than Its pre-halving price.

The theory of the halving and the chain reaction that it sets off works something like this:

Reward is halved → half the inflation → lower available supply → higher demand → higher price → miners incentive still remains, regardless of smaller rewards, as the value of Bitcoin is increased In the process.

In the event that a halving does not increase demand and price, then miners would have no incentive as the reward for completing transactions would be smaller and the value of Bitcoin would not be high enough. To prevent this, Bitcoin has a process to change the difficulty it takes to get mining rewards. In the event that the reward has been halved and the value of Bitcoin has not increased, the difficulty of mining would be reduced to keep miners incentivized. This means that the quantity of Bitcoin released as a reward is still smaller but the difficulty of processing a transaction is reduced.

This process has proven successful twice. So far, the result of these halvings has been a ballooning in price followed by a large drop. The crashes that have followed these gains, however, have still maintained prices higher than before the halvings. For example, as mentioned above, the 2018 bubble saw Bitcoin rise to around $20,000, only to fall to around $3,200. This is a massive drop but Bitcoin's price before the halving was around $650. While this system has worked so far, the halving is typically surrounded by immense speculation, hype, and volatility, and it is unpredictable as to how the market will react to these events in the future.

,,

(Source: Investopedia)

Chachain

-------------
Disclaimer:
I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.

Komentar:

If you like this chart and if you want to understand deeper my trading strategy style then I do recommend to visit this chart as well which explains some parts of it

Trading ditutup: target tercapai:

Important milestone - Reaching the "minimum"

Trading ditutup: target tercapai:

Here we are just few months later. Lot of miners should start to take profits. Im not saying this is exact top, but expect higher vollatility from now on

Trade aktif:

Well seems it was smart to take profits at 54K as we are pushed down after redistribution on 60K back to 30K zone

would consider buying the dip ;)