Mean Reversion Watchlist [Z score]Hi Traders !
What is the Z score:
The Z score measures a values variability factor from the mean, this value is denoted by z and is interpreted as the number of standard deviations from the mean.
The Z score is often applied to the normal distribution to “standardize” the values; this makes comparison of normally distributed random variables with different units possible.
This popular reversal based indicator makes an assumption that the sample distribution (in this case the sample of price values) is normal, this allows for the interpretation that values with an extremely high or low percentile or “Z” value will likely be reversal zones.
This is because in the population data (the true distribution) which is known, anomaly values are very rare, therefore if price were to take a z score factor of 3 this would mean that price lies 3 standard deviations from the mean in the positive direction and is in the ≈99% percentile of all values. We would take this as a sign of a negative reversal as it is very unlikely to observe a consecutive equal to or more extreme than this percentile or Z value.
The z score normalization equation is given by
In Pine Script the Z score can be computed very easily using the below code.
// Z score custom function
Zscore(source, lookback) =>
sma = ta.sma(source, lookback)
stdev = ta.stdev(source, lookback, true)
zscore = (source - sma) / stdev
zscore
The Indicator:
This indicator plots the Z score for up to 20 different assets ( Note the maximum is 40 however the utility of 40 plots in one indicator is not much, there is a diminishing marginal return of the number of plots ).
Z score threshold levels can also be specified, the interpretation is the same as stated above.
The timeframe can also be fixed, by toggling the “Time frame lock” user input under the “TIME FRAME LOCK” user input group ( Note this indicator does not repain t).
Zscoreindicator
Z Score CANDLE and Exciting candle signal [DJ D]This script paints candles when their zscore reaches above 2 standard deviations in price from the mean. The blue candle represents up candle above 2. Magenta candle below -2. The candles can signal the beginning of a move and also importantly exhaustion.
The script also signals when a candle has volatility above 6. The higher the sensitivity the less frequent it will paint. These are real time paints and signals. You can adjust for higher time frames by adjusting the length of the z score and adjust the sensitivity of the volatility candles.
The yellow candle is a mean candle and can signify consolidation and/or indecision. Drawing a Darvis type box around around mean candles can give you a zone to watch.
These settings are for 1 minute scalping. The volatility sensitivity range between 1- 2 is good for 15, 30, (ie 1.0 or 1.2) and your discretion....
Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSRO) is a cryptocurrency indicator designed for mean reversion analysis and sentiment assessment. It calculates the ratio of CRYPTO:BTCUSD 's market capitalization to the sum of stablecoins' market capitalization and z-scores the result, offering insights into market sentiment and potential turning points.
Methodology:
The SSRO is calculated as follows-
method ssro(float src, array stblsrc, int len) =>
float ssr = src / stblsrc.sum() // Source of the underlying divided by the sum of stablecoin sources
(ssr - ta.sma(ssr, len)) / ta.stdev(ssr, len) // Z-Score Transformed
This ratio is Z-Scored to provide a standardized measure, allowing users to identify periods of market fear or greed based on the allocation of capital between the underlying and Stablecoins ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT , CRYPTOCAP:USDC , CRYPTO:TUSD , CRYPTOCAP:BUSD , CRYPTOCAP:DAI , CRYPTOCAP:USDD , CRYPTOCAP:FRAX ). The z-scored values indicate potential areas of discount (buying opportunities) or premium (selling opportunities) relative to historical patterns.
Customization:
Underlying Asset: SSRO is customizable to different underlying assets, offering a versatile tool for various cryptocurrencies.
Calculation Length: Users can adjust the length of the calculation, tailoring the indicator to short or long-term analysis.
Visualization: SSRO can be displayed as candles, providing a visual representation of premium and discount areas.
Interpretation:
Market Sentiment: Lower SSRO values may indicate market fear, suggesting a preference for stablecoins as a relatively safer haven for capital. Conversely, higher values may suggest market greed, as more capital is allocated to the underlying asset.
Utility and Use Cases:
1. Mean Reversion Analysis: SSRO identifies potential mean reversion opportunities, guiding traders on optimal entry and exit points.
2. Sentiment Analysis: The indicator provides insights into market sentiment, aiding traders in understanding market dynamics.
3. Macro Analysis: The majority of cryptos follow \ correlate to CRYPTO:BTCUSD , Therefore by assessing premium and discount areas of CRYPTO:BTCUSD relative to the chosen underlying asset, users gain insights into potential market tops and bottoms.
4. Divergence Analysis: SSRO divergence from price trends can signal potential reversals, providing traders with additional confirmation for their decisions.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator is a valuable tool for cryptocurrency traders, offering a nuanced perspective on market sentiment and mean reversion opportunities. Its customization options and visual representation make it a versatile and powerful addition to the crypto analyst's toolkit.
Enhanced WaveTrend OscillatorThe Enhanced WaveTrend Oscillator is a modified version of the original WaveTrend. The WaveTrend indicator is a popular technical analysis tool used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in the market and generate trading signals. The enhanced version addresses certain limitations of the original indicator and introduces additional features for improved analysis and comparison across assets.
WaveTrend:
The original WaveTrend indicator calculates two lines based on exponential moving averages and their relationship to the asset's price. The first line measures the distance between the asset's price and its EMA, while the second line smooths the first line over a specific period. The result is divided by 0.015 multiplied by the smoothed difference ('d' for reference). The indicator aims to identify overbought and oversold conditions by analyzing the relationship between the two lines.
In the original formula, the rudimentary estimation factor 0.015 times 'd' fails to accomodate for approximately a quarter of the data, preventing the indicator from reaching the traditional stationary levels of +-100. This limitation renders the indicator quantitatively biased, as it relies on the user's subjective adjustment of the levels. The enhanced version replaces this factor with the standard deviation of the asset's price, resulting in improved estimation accuracy and provides a more dynamic and robust outcome, we thereafter multiply the result by 100 to achieve a more traditional oscillation.
Enhancements and Features:
The enhanced version of the WaveTrend indicator addresses several limitations of the original indicator and introduces additional features-
Dynamic Estimation: The original indicator uses an arbitrary estimation factor, while the enhanced version replaces it with the standard deviation of the asset's price. This modification provides a more dynamic and accurate estimation, adapting to the specific price characteristics of each asset.
Stationary Support and Resistance Levels: The enhanced version provides stationary key support and resistance levels that range from -150 to 150. These levels are determined based on the analysis of the indicator's data and encompass more than 95% of the indicator's values. These levels offer important reference points for traders to identify potential price reversals or significant price movements.
Comparison Across Assets: The enhanced version allows for better comparison and analysis across different assets. By incorporating the standard deviation of the asset's price, the indicator provides a more consistent and comparable interpretation of the market conditions across multiple assets.
Upon closer inspection of the modification in the enhanced version, we can observe that the resulting indicator is a smoothed variation of the Z-Score!
f_ewave(src, chlen, avglen) =>
basis = ta.ema(src, chlen)
dev = ta.stdev(src, chlen)
wave = (src - basis) / dev * 100
ta.ema(wave, avglen)
Z-Score Analysis:
The Z-Score is a statistical measurement that quantifies how far a particular data point deviates from the mean in terms of standard deviations. In the enhanced version, the calculation involves determining the basis (mean) and deviation (standard deviation) of the asset's price to calculate its Z-Score, thereafter applying a smoothing technique to generate the final WaveTrend value.
Utility:
The 𝗘𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗪𝗧 indicator offers traders and investors valuable insights into overbought and oversold conditions in the market. By analyzing the indicator's values and referencing the stationary support and resistance levels, traders can identify potential trend reversals, evaluate market strength, and make better informed analysis.
It is important to note that this indicator should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators to confirm trading signals and validate market dynamics.
Credit:
The 𝗘𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗪𝗧 indicator is a modification of the original WaveTrend Oscillator developed by @LazyBear on TradingView.
Example Charts:
Z-Score Heikin-Ashi TransformedThe Z-Score Heikin-Ashi Transformed (𝘡 𝘏-𝘈) indicator is a powerful technical tool that combines the principles of Z-Score and Heikin Ashi to provide traders with a smoothed representation of price movements and a standardized measure of market volatility.
The 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 indicator applies the Z-Score calculation to price data and then transforms the resulting Z-Scores using the Heikin Ashi technique. Understanding the individual components of Z-Score and Heikin Ashi will provide a foundation for comprehending the methodology and unique features of this indicator.
Z-Score:
Z-Score is a statistical measure that quantifies the distance between a data point and the mean, relative to the standard deviation. It provides a standardized value that allows traders to compare different data points on a common scale. In the context of the 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 indicator, Z-Score is calculated based on price data, enabling the identification of extreme price movements and the assessment of their significance.
Heikin Ashi:
Heikin Ashi is a popular charting technique that aims to filter out market noise and provide a smoother representation of price trends. It involves calculating each candlestick based on the average of the previous candle's open, close, high, and low prices. This approach results in a chart that reduces the impact of short-term price fluctuations and reveals the underlying trend more clearly.
Methodology:
The 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 indicator starts by calculating the Z-Score of the price data, which provides a standardized measure of how far each price point deviates from the mean. Next, the resulting Z-Scores are transformed using the Heikin Ashi technique. Each Z-Score value is modified according to the Heikin Ashi formula, which incorporates the average of the previous Heikin Ashi candle's open and close prices. This transformation smooths out the Z-Score values and reduces the impact of short-term price fluctuations, providing a clearer view of market trends.
This tool enables traders to identify significant price movements and assess their relative strength compared to historical data. Positive transformed Z-Scores indicate that prices are above the average, suggesting potential overbought conditions, while negative transformed Z-Scores indicate prices below the average, suggesting potential oversold conditions. Traders can utilize this information to identify potential reversals, confirm trend strength, and generate trading signals.
Utility:
The indicator offers valuable insights into price volatility and trend analysis. By combining the standardized measure of Z-Score with the smoothing effect of Heikin Ashi, traders can make more informed trading decisions and improve their understanding of market dynamics. 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 can be used in various trading strategies, including identifying overbought or oversold conditions, confirming trend reversals, and establishing entry and exit points.
Note that the 𝘡 𝘏-𝘈 should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators and analysis tools to validate signals and avoid false positives. Additionally, traders are encouraged to conduct thorough backtesting and experimentation with different parameter settings to optimize the effectiveness of the indicator for their specific trading approach.
Key Features:
Optional Reversion Doritos
Adjustable Reversion Threshold
2 Adjustable EMAs
Example Charts:
See Also:
On Balance Volume Heikin-Ashi Transformed
