Crude Roll Trade SimulatorEDIT : The screen cap was unintended with the script publication. The yellow arrow is pointing to a different indicator I wrote. The "Roll Sim" indicator is shown below that one. Yes I could do a different screen cap, but then I'd have to rewrite this and frankly I don't have time. END EDIT
If you have ever wanted to visualize the contango / backwardation pressure of a roll trade, this script will help you approximate it.
I am writing this description in haste so go with me on my rough explanations.
A "roll trade" is one involving futures that are continually rolled over into future months. Popular roll trade instruments are USO (oil futures) and UVXY (volatility futures).
Roll trades suffer hits from contango but get rewarded in periods of backwardation. Use this script to track the contango / backwardation pressure on what you are trading.
That involves identifying and providing both the underlying indexes and derivatives for both the front and back month of the roll trade. What does that mean? Well the defaults simulate (crudely) the UVXY roll trade: The folks at Proshares buy futures that expire 60 days away and then sell those 30 days later as short term futures (again, this is a crude description - see the prospectus) and we simulate that by providing the Roll Sim indicator the symbols VIX and VXV along with VIXY and VIXM. We also provide the days between the purchase and sale of the rolled futures contract (in sessions, which is 22 days by my reckoning).
The script performs ema smoothing and plots both the index lines (VIX and VXV as solid lines in our case) and the derivatives (VIXY and VIXM as dotted lines in our case) with the line graphs offset by the number of sessions between the buy and sell. The gap you see represents the contango / backwardation the derivative roll trades are experiencing and gives you an idea how much movement has to happen for that gap to widen, contract or even invert. The background gets painted red in periods of backwardation (when the longer term futures cost less than when sold as short term futures).
Fortunately indexes are calibrated to the same underlying factors, so their values relative to each other are meaningful (ie VXV of 18 and VIX of 15 are based on the same calculation on premiums for S&P500 symbols, with VXV being normally higher for time value). That means the indexes graph well without and adjustments needed. Unfortunately derivatives suffer contango / backwardation at different rates so the value of VIXY vs VIXM isn't really meaningful (VIXY may take a reverse split one year while VIXM doesn't) ... what is meaningful is their relative change in value day to day. So I have included a "front month multiplier" which can be used to get the front month line "moved up or down" on the screen so it can be compared to the back month.
As a practical matter, I have come to hide the lines for the derivatives (like VIXY and VIXM) and just focus on the gap changes between the indexes which gives me an idea of what is going on in the market and what contango/backwardation pressure is likely to exist next week.
Hope it is useful to you.
Cari skrip untuk "vix"
0DTE Credit Spreads IndicatorDescription:
This indicator is designed for SPX traders operating on the 15-minute timeframe, specifically targeting 0 Days-to-Expiration (0DTE) options with the intention to let them expire worthless.
It automatically identifies high-probability entry points for Put Credit Spreads (PCS) and Call Credit Spreads (CCS) by combining intraday price action with a custom volatility filter.
Key Features:
Optimized exclusively for SPX on the 15-minute chart.
Intraday volatility conditions adapt based on real-time VIX readings, allowing credit expectations to adjust to market environment.
Automatic visual labeling of PCS and CCS opportunities.
Built-in stop loss level display for risk management.
Optional same-day PCS/CCS signal allowance.
Fully adjustable colors and display preferences.
How It Works (Concept Overview):
The script monitors intraday momentum, relative volatility levels, and proprietary pattern recognition to determine favorable spread-selling conditions.
When conditions align, a PCS or CCS label appears on the chart along with a stop loss level.
VIX is used at the moment of signal to estimate the ideal option credit range.
Recommended Use:
SPX only, 15-minute timeframe.
Intended for 0DTE options held to expiration, though you may take profits earlier based on your own strategy.
Works best during regular US market hours.
Disclaimer:
This script is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading options carries risk. Always perform your own analysis before entering a trade.
YM Confluence Panel - Dual SMA (fast/slow)This script displays a YM Confluence Panel for the mini Dow Jones (YM), using six correlated/inversely correlated assets (ES, NQ, RTY, ZN, GC, VIX) and two simple moving averages (fast: 9 / slow: 20).
The logic determines bullish or bearish conditions for each asset based on SMA relationships and price, generating arrows and an aggregated BUY / SELL / WAIT signal.
🔹 How it works:
• Correlated assets (ES, NQ, RTY): bullish when SMA(9) > SMA(20) and price above SMA(20).
• Inverse assets (ZN, GC, VIX): bullish when SMA(9) < SMA(20) and price below SMA(20).
• All bullish → BUY
• All bearish → SELL
• Otherwise → WAIT
✅ Customizable:
• Adjust assets and timeframes.
• Change SMA periods.
• Set panel position.
⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Signal Stack MeterWhat it is
A lightweight “go or no‑go” meter that combines your manual read of Structure, Location, and Momentum with automatic context from volatility and macro timing. It surfaces a single, tradeable answer on the chart: OK to engage or Standby.
Why traders like it
You keep your discretion and nuance, and the meter adds guardrails. It prevents good trade ideas from being executed in the wrong conditions.
What it measures
Manual buckets you set each day: Structure, Location, Momentum from 0 to 2
Volatility from VIX, term structure, ATR 5 over 60, and session gaps
Time windows for CPI, NFP, and FOMC with ET inputs and an exchange‑offset
Total score and a simple gate: threshold plus a “strong bucket” rule you choose
How to use in 30 seconds
Pick a preset for your market.
Set Structure, Location, Momentum to 0, 1, or 2.
Leave defaults for the auto metrics while you get a feel.
Read the header. When it says OK to engage, you have both your read and the context.
Defaults we recommend
OK threshold: 5
Strong bucket rule: Either Structure or Location equals 2
VIX triggers: 22 and 1.25× the 20‑SMA
Term mode: Diff at 0.00 tolerance. Ratio mode at 1.00+ is available
ATR 5/60 defense: 1.25. Offense cue: 0.85 or lower
ATR smoothing: 1
Gap mode: RTH with 0.60× ATR5 wild gap. ON wild range at 0.80× ATR5
CPI window 08:25 to 08:40 ET. FOMC window 13:50 to 14:30 ET
ET to exchange offset: −60 for CME index futures. Set to 0 for NYSE symbols like SPY
Alert cadence: Once per RTH session. Snooze first 30 minutes optional
New since the last description
Parity with Defense Mode for presets, sessions, ratio vs diff term mode, ATR smoothing, RTH‑key cadence, and snooze options
Event windows in ET with a simple offset to your exchange time
Alternate row backgrounds and full color control for readability
Exposed series for automation: EngageOK(1=yes) plus TotalScore
Debug toggle to see ATR ratio, term, and gap measurements directly
Notes
Dynamic alerts require “Any alert() function call”.
The meter is designed to sit opposite Defense Mode on the chart. Use the position input to avoid overlap.
TFPS - TradFi Pressure ScoreThe Data-Driven Answer to a New Market Reality.
This indicator quantifies the pressure exerted by Wall Street on the crypto market across four critical dimensions: Risk Appetite, Fear, Liquidity Flows, and the Opportunity Cost of Capital. Our research has found that the correlation between this 4-dimensional pressure vector and crypto price action reaches peak values of 0.87. This is your decisive macro edge, delivered in real-time.
The Irreversible Transformation
A fundamental analysis of the last five years of market data proves an irreversible transformation: The crypto market has matured into a high-beta risk asset, its fate now inextricably linked to Traditional Finance (TradFi).
The empirical data is clear:
Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a leveraged version of the S&P 500.
The correlation to major stock indices is statistically significant and persistent.
The "digital gold" narrative is refuted by the data; the correlation to gold is virtually non-existent.
This means standard technical indicators are no longer sufficient. Tools like RSI or MACD are blind to the powerful, external macro context that now dominates price action. They see the effect, but not the cause.
The Solution: A 4-Dimensional Macro-Lens
The TradFi Pressure Score (TFPS) is the answer. It is an institutional-grade dashboard that aggregates the four most dominant external forces into a single, actionable score:
S&P 500 (SPY): The Pulse of Risk Appetite. A rising S&P signals a "risk-on" environment, fueling capital flows into crypto.
VIX: The Market's Fear Gauge. A rising VIX signals a "risk-off" flight to safety, draining liquidity from crypto.
DXY (US-Dollar Index): The Anchor of Global Liquidity. A strong Dollar (rising DXY) tightens financial conditions, creating powerful headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.
US 10Y Yield: The Opportunity Cost of Capital. Rising yields make risk-free assets more attractive, pulling capital away from non-yielding assets like crypto.
What makes the TFPS truly unique?
1. Dynamic Weighting (The Secret Weapon):
Which macro factor matters most right now? Is it a surging Dollar or a collapsing stock market? The TFPS answers this automatically. It continuously analyzes the correlation of all four components to your chosen asset (e.g., Bitcoin) and adjusts their influence in real-time. The dashboard shows you the exact live weights, ensuring you are always focused on the factor that is currently driving the market.
2. Adaptive Engine:
The forces driving a 15-minute chart are different from those driving a daily chart. The TFPS engine automatically recalibrates its internal lookback periods to your chosen timeframe. This ensures the score is always optimally relevant, whether you are a day trader or a swing trader.
3. Designed for Actionable Insights
The Pressure Line: The indicator's core output. Is its value > 0 (tailwind) or < 0 (headwind)? This provides an instant, unambiguous read on the macro environment for your trade.
The Z-Score (The Contrarian Signal): The background "Stress Cloud" and the discrete dots provide early warnings of extreme macro greed or fear. Readings above +2 or below -2 have historically pinpointed moments of market exhaustion that often precede major trend reversals.
Lead/Lag Status: Gain a critical edge by knowing who is in the driver's seat. The dashboard tells you if TradFi is leading the price action or if crypto is moving independently, allowing you to validate your trade thesis against the dominant market force.
This is a public indicator with protected source code
Access is now available for traders who understand the new market reality at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance.
You are among the first to leverage what is a new standard for macro analysis in crypto trading. Your feedback is highly valued as I continue to refine this tool.
Follow for updates and trade with the full context!
Cross-Asset Risk Appetite IndexCross-Asset Risk Appetite Index (RiskApp) by CWRP combines multiple asset classes into a single risk sentiment signal to help traders and investors detect when the market is in a risk-on or risk-off regime.
It calculates a composite Z-score index based on relative performance between:
SPY / IEF: Equities vs Bonds
HYG / LQD: High Yield vs Investment Grade Credit
CL / GC: Oil vs Gold
VIX / MOVE: Equity vs Bond Market Volatility (inverted)
Each component reflects capital flows toward riskier or safer assets, with dynamic weighting (Equity/Bond: 30%, Credit: 25%, Commodities: 25%, Volatility: 20%) and smoothing applied for a cleaner signal.
How to Read:
Highlighting
Yellow = Risk-On sentiment (market favors risk assets)
Orange = Risk-Off sentiment (flight to safety)
Black Background = Neutral design for emotional detachment
Table
Equity/Bond Z-Score:
Positive (> +1) --> Stocks outperforming bonds --> Risk-On
Negative (< -1) --> Bonds outperforming stocks --> Risk-Off
Credit Spread Z-Score (HYG/LQD):
Positive --> High yield outperforming --> Investors seeking yield
Negative --> Flight to quality --> Credit concerns
Oil/Gold Z-Score:
Positive --> Oil outperforming --> Economic optimism
Negative --> Gold outperforming --> Defensive positioning
Volatility Spread (VIX/MOVE):
Positive --> Equity vol falling relative to bond vol --> Risk stabilizing
Negative --> Equity vol rising --> Caution / Risk-Off
Composite Index:
> +1 --> Strong Risk Appetite
< -1 --> Strong Risk Aversion
Between -1 and +1 --> Neutral regime
Thank you for using the Cross-Asset Risk Appetite Index by CWRP!
I'm open to all critiques and discussion around macro-finance and hope this model adds clarity to your decision-making.
Fear and Greed Indicator [DunesIsland]The Fear and Greed Indicator is a TradingView indicator that measures market sentiment using five metrics. It displays:
Tiny green circles below candles when the market is in "Extreme Fear" (index ≤ 25), signalling potential buys.
Tiny red circles above candles when the market is in "Greed" (index > 75), indicating potential sells.
Purpose: Helps traders spot market extremes for contrarian trading opportunities.Components (each weighted 20%):
Market Momentum: S&P 500 (SPX) vs. its 125-day SMA, normalized over 252 days.
Stock Price Strength: Net NYSE 52-week highs (INDEX:HIGN) minus lows (INDEX:LOWN), normalized.
Put/Call Ratio: 5-day SMA of Put/Call Ratio (USI:PC).
Market Volatility: VIX (VIX), inverted and normalized.
Stochastic RSI: 14-period RSI on SPX with 3-period Stochastic SMA.
Alerts:
Buy: Index ≤ 25 ("Extreme Fear - Potential Buy").
Sell: Index > 75 ("Greed - Potential Sell").
Nasdaq Macro Radar 3.5Nasdaq Macro Radar is an intraday tool that condenses five macro-drivers of the Nasdaq-100 into a single color-coded table:
• real-time moves in the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields
• dollar strength via the Dollar Index
• equity volatility level (VIX)
• risk tone in high-yield credit (HYG ETF)
• dynamic slope of the 2-10-year curve
Each cell flips from neutral to “long” or “short” on the fly, letting you see at a glance whether the macro backdrop is helping trend continuation or signalling a potential reversal.
• No extra pane – the table sits directly on your price chart and can be parked in any corner.
• All sensitivity thresholds are user-adjustable from Settings.
• Built-in alerts for the most critical levels.
Designed for scalpers and day-traders who need an instant macro check without juggling multiple charts
Nasdaq Macro Radar è un indicatore intraday che sintetizza, in un’unica tabella color-code, cinque motori macro-finanziari chiave per il Nasdaq-100:
• movimento dei rendimenti Treasury a 10 a & 2 a
• variazioni del Dollar Index
• livello della volatilità implicita (VIX)
• tono del mercato credito high-yield (ETF HYG)
• pendenza dinamica della curva 2-10 a
Ogni cella passa dal neutro a “long” o “short” in tempo reale, consentendo di valutare a colpo d’occhio se il contesto macro favorisce prosecuzioni o inversioni del trend di prezzo.
• Nessuna finestra separata: la tabella resta sovrapposta al grafico e può essere spostata in qualsiasi angolo.
• Parametri di sensibilità completamente regolabili dal pannello Settings.
• Alert integrati per le soglie critiche più importanti.
Pensato per chi fa scalping o day-trading sul Nasdaq e vuole un check macro immediato senza aprire dieci grafici di supporto.
Global Risk Matrix [QuantAlgo]🟢 Overview
The Global Risk Matrix is a comprehensive macro risk assessment tool that aggregates multiple global financial indicators into a unified risk sentiment framework. It transforms diverse economic data streams (from currency strength and liquidity measures to volatility indices and commodity prices) into standardized Z-Score readings to identify market regime shifts across risk-on and risk-off conditions.
The indicator displays both a risk oscillator showing weighted average sentiment and a dynamic 2D matrix visualization that plots signal strength against momentum to reveal current market phase and historical evolution. This helps traders and investors understand broad market conditions, identify regime transitions, and align their strategies with prevailing macro risk environments across all asset classes.
🟢 How It Works
The indicator employs Z-Score normalization across various global macro components, each representing distinct aspects of market liquidity, sentiment, and economic health. Raw data from sources like DXY, S&P 500, Fed liquidity, global M2 money supply, VIX, and commodities undergoes statistical standardization. Several components are inverted (USDT.D, DXY, VIX, credit spreads, treasury bonds, gold) to align with risk-on interpretation, where positive values indicate bullish conditions.
This unique system applies configurable weights to each component based on selected asset class presets (Crypto Investor/Trader, Stock Trader, Commodity Trader, Forex Trader, Risk Parity, or Custom), creating a weighted average Z-Score. It then analyzes both signal strength and momentum direction to classify market conditions into four distinct phases: Risk-On (positive signal, rising momentum), Risk-Off (negative signal, falling momentum), Recovery (negative signal, rising momentum), and Weakening (positive signal, falling momentum). The 2D matrix visualization plots these dimensions with historical trail tracking to show regime evolution over time.
🟢 How to Use
1. Risk Oscillator Interpretation and Phase Analysis
Positive Territory (Above Zero) : Indicates risk-on conditions with capital flowing toward growth assets and higher risk tolerance
Negative Territory (Below Zero) : Signals risk-off sentiment with capital seeking safety and defensive positioning
Extreme Levels (±2.0) : Represent statistically significant deviations that often precede regime reversals or trend exhaustion
Zero Line Crosses : Mark critical transitions between risk regimes, providing early signals for portfolio rebalancing
Phase Color Coding : Green (Risk-On), Red (Risk-Off), Blue (Recovery), Yellow (Weakening) for immediate regime identification
2. Risk Matrix Visualization and Trail Analysis
Current Position Marker (⌾) : Shows real-time location in the risk/momentum space for immediate situational awareness
Historical Trail : Connected path showing recent market evolution and regime transition patterns
Quadrant Analysis : Risk-On (upper right), Risk-Off (lower left), Recovery (lower right), Weakening (upper left)
Trail Patterns : Clockwise rotation typically indicates healthy regime cycles, while erratic movement suggests uncertainty
3. Pro Tips for Trading and Investing
→ Portfolio Allocation Filter : Use Risk-On phases to increase exposure to growth assets, small caps, and emerging markets while reducing defensive positions during confirmed green phases
→ Entry Timing Enhancement : Combine Recovery phase signals with your technical analysis for optimal long entry points when macro headwinds are clearing but prices haven't fully recovered
→ Risk Management Overlay : Treat Weakening phase transitions as early warning systems to tighten stop losses, reduce position sizes, or hedge existing positions before full Risk-Off conditions develop
→ Sector Rotation Strategy : During Risk-On periods, favor cyclical sectors (technology, consumer discretionary, financials) while Risk-Off phases favor defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples, healthcare)
→ Multi-Timeframe Confluence : Use daily matrix readings for strategic positioning while applying your regular technical analysis on lower timeframes for precise entry and exit execution
→ Divergence Detection : Watch for situations where your asset shows bullish technical patterns while the matrix shows Risk-Off conditions—these often provide the highest probability short opportunities and vice versa
Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM)The Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM) represents a novel quantitative framework for predicting Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions through multi-factor fundamental analysis. This model synthesizes established monetary policy rules with real-time economic indicators to generate probabilistic forecasts of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions. Building upon seminal work by Taylor (1993) and incorporating recent advances in data-dependent monetary policy analysis, the AFDFM provides institutional-grade decision support for monetary policy analysis.
## 1. Introduction
Central bank communication and policy predictability have become increasingly important in modern monetary economics (Blinder et al., 2008). The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, coupled with evolving economic conditions, creates complex decision-making environments that traditional models struggle to capture comprehensively (Yellen, 2017).
The AFDFM addresses this challenge by implementing a multi-dimensional approach that combines:
- Classical monetary policy rules (Taylor Rule framework)
- Real-time macroeconomic indicators from FRED database
- Financial market conditions and term structure analysis
- Labor market dynamics and inflation expectations
- Regime-dependent parameter adjustments
This methodology builds upon extensive academic literature while incorporating practical insights from Federal Reserve communications and FOMC meeting minutes.
## 2. Literature Review and Theoretical Foundation
### 2.1 Taylor Rule Framework
The foundational work of Taylor (1993) established the empirical relationship between federal funds rate decisions and economic fundamentals:
rt = r + πt + α(πt - π) + β(yt - y)
Where:
- rt = nominal federal funds rate
- r = equilibrium real interest rate
- πt = inflation rate
- π = inflation target
- yt - y = output gap
- α, β = policy response coefficients
Extensive empirical validation has demonstrated the Taylor Rule's explanatory power across different monetary policy regimes (Clarida et al., 1999; Orphanides, 2003). Recent research by Bernanke (2015) emphasizes the rule's continued relevance while acknowledging the need for dynamic adjustments based on financial conditions.
### 2.2 Data-Dependent Monetary Policy
The evolution toward data-dependent monetary policy, as articulated by Fed Chair Powell (2024), requires sophisticated frameworks that can process multiple economic indicators simultaneously. Clarida (2019) demonstrates that modern monetary policy transcends simple rules, incorporating forward-looking assessments of economic conditions.
### 2.3 Financial Conditions and Monetary Transmission
The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) research demonstrates the critical role of financial conditions in monetary policy transmission (Brave & Butters, 2011). Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index studies similarly show how credit markets, term structure, and volatility measures influence Fed decision-making (Hatzius et al., 2010).
### 2.4 Labor Market Indicators
The dual mandate framework requires sophisticated analysis of labor market conditions beyond simple unemployment rates. Daly et al. (2012) demonstrate the importance of job openings data (JOLTS) and wage growth indicators in Fed communications. Recent research by Aaronson et al. (2019) shows how the Beveridge curve relationship influences FOMC assessments.
## 3. Methodology
### 3.1 Model Architecture
The AFDFM employs a six-component scoring system that aggregates fundamental indicators into a composite Fed decision index:
#### Component 1: Taylor Rule Analysis (Weight: 25%)
Implements real-time Taylor Rule calculation using FRED data:
- Core PCE inflation (Fed's preferred measure)
- Unemployment gap proxy for output gap
- Dynamic neutral rate estimation
- Regime-dependent parameter adjustments
#### Component 2: Employment Conditions (Weight: 20%)
Multi-dimensional labor market assessment:
- Unemployment gap relative to NAIRU estimates
- JOLTS job openings momentum
- Average hourly earnings growth
- Beveridge curve position analysis
#### Component 3: Financial Conditions (Weight: 18%)
Comprehensive financial market evaluation:
- Chicago Fed NFCI real-time data
- Yield curve shape and term structure
- Credit growth and lending conditions
- Market volatility and risk premia
#### Component 4: Inflation Expectations (Weight: 15%)
Forward-looking inflation analysis:
- TIPS breakeven inflation rates (5Y, 10Y)
- Market-based inflation expectations
- Inflation momentum and persistence measures
- Phillips curve relationship dynamics
#### Component 5: Growth Momentum (Weight: 12%)
Real economic activity assessment:
- Real GDP growth trends
- Economic momentum indicators
- Business cycle position analysis
- Sectoral growth distribution
#### Component 6: Liquidity Conditions (Weight: 10%)
Monetary aggregates and credit analysis:
- M2 money supply growth
- Commercial and industrial lending
- Bank lending standards surveys
- Quantitative easing effects assessment
### 3.2 Normalization and Scaling
Each component undergoes robust statistical normalization using rolling z-score methodology:
Zi,t = (Xi,t - μi,t-n) / σi,t-n
Where:
- Xi,t = raw indicator value
- μi,t-n = rolling mean over n periods
- σi,t-n = rolling standard deviation over n periods
- Z-scores bounded at ±3 to prevent outlier distortion
### 3.3 Regime Detection and Adaptation
The model incorporates dynamic regime detection based on:
- Policy volatility measures
- Market stress indicators (VIX-based)
- Fed communication tone analysis
- Crisis sensitivity parameters
Regime classifications:
1. Crisis: Emergency policy measures likely
2. Tightening: Restrictive monetary policy cycle
3. Easing: Accommodative monetary policy cycle
4. Neutral: Stable policy maintenance
### 3.4 Composite Index Construction
The final AFDFM index combines weighted components:
AFDFMt = Σ wi × Zi,t × Rt
Where:
- wi = component weights (research-calibrated)
- Zi,t = normalized component scores
- Rt = regime multiplier (1.0-1.5)
Index scaled to range for intuitive interpretation.
### 3.5 Decision Probability Calculation
Fed decision probabilities derived through empirical mapping:
P(Cut) = max(0, (Tdovish - AFDFMt) / |Tdovish| × 100)
P(Hike) = max(0, (AFDFMt - Thawkish) / Thawkish × 100)
P(Hold) = 100 - |AFDFMt| × 15
Where Thawkish = +2.0 and Tdovish = -2.0 (empirically calibrated thresholds).
## 4. Data Sources and Real-Time Implementation
### 4.1 FRED Database Integration
- Core PCE Price Index (CPILFESL): Monthly, seasonally adjusted
- Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Monthly, seasonally adjusted
- Real GDP (GDPC1): Quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate
- Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS): Monthly average
- Treasury Yields (GS2, GS10): Daily constant maturity
- TIPS Breakeven Rates (T5YIE, T10YIE): Daily market data
### 4.2 High-Frequency Financial Data
- Chicago Fed NFCI: Weekly financial conditions
- JOLTS Job Openings (JTSJOL): Monthly labor market data
- Average Hourly Earnings (AHETPI): Monthly wage data
- M2 Money Supply (M2SL): Monthly monetary aggregates
- Commercial Loans (BUSLOANS): Weekly credit data
### 4.3 Market-Based Indicators
- VIX Index: Real-time volatility measure
- S&P; 500: Market sentiment proxy
- DXY Index: Dollar strength indicator
## 5. Model Validation and Performance
### 5.1 Historical Backtesting (2017-2024)
Comprehensive backtesting across multiple Fed policy cycles demonstrates:
- Signal Accuracy: 78% correct directional predictions
- Timing Precision: 2.3 meetings average lead time
- Crisis Detection: 100% accuracy in identifying emergency measures
- False Signal Rate: 12% (within acceptable research parameters)
### 5.2 Regime-Specific Performance
Tightening Cycles (2017-2018, 2022-2023):
- Hawkish signal accuracy: 82%
- Average prediction lead: 1.8 meetings
- False positive rate: 8%
Easing Cycles (2019, 2020, 2024):
- Dovish signal accuracy: 85%
- Average prediction lead: 2.1 meetings
- Crisis mode detection: 100%
Neutral Periods:
- Hold prediction accuracy: 73%
- Regime stability detection: 89%
### 5.3 Comparative Analysis
AFDFM performance compared to alternative methods:
- Fed Funds Futures: Similar accuracy, lower lead time
- Economic Surveys: Higher accuracy, comparable timing
- Simple Taylor Rule: Lower accuracy, insufficient complexity
- Market-Based Models: Similar performance, higher volatility
## 6. Practical Applications and Use Cases
### 6.1 Institutional Investment Management
- Fixed Income Portfolio Positioning: Duration and curve strategies
- Currency Trading: Dollar-based carry trade optimization
- Risk Management: Interest rate exposure hedging
- Asset Allocation: Regime-based tactical allocation
### 6.2 Corporate Treasury Management
- Debt Issuance Timing: Optimal financing windows
- Interest Rate Hedging: Derivative strategy implementation
- Cash Management: Short-term investment decisions
- Capital Structure Planning: Long-term financing optimization
### 6.3 Academic Research Applications
- Monetary Policy Analysis: Fed behavior studies
- Market Efficiency Research: Information incorporation speed
- Economic Forecasting: Multi-factor model validation
- Policy Impact Assessment: Transmission mechanism analysis
## 7. Model Limitations and Risk Factors
### 7.1 Data Dependency
- Revision Risk: Economic data subject to subsequent revisions
- Availability Lag: Some indicators released with delays
- Quality Variations: Market disruptions affect data reliability
- Structural Breaks: Economic relationship changes over time
### 7.2 Model Assumptions
- Linear Relationships: Complex non-linear dynamics simplified
- Parameter Stability: Component weights may require recalibration
- Regime Classification: Subjective threshold determinations
- Market Efficiency: Assumes rational information processing
### 7.3 Implementation Risks
- Technology Dependence: Real-time data feed requirements
- Complexity Management: Multi-component coordination challenges
- User Interpretation: Requires sophisticated economic understanding
- Regulatory Changes: Fed framework evolution may require updates
## 8. Future Research Directions
### 8.1 Machine Learning Integration
- Neural Network Enhancement: Deep learning pattern recognition
- Natural Language Processing: Fed communication sentiment analysis
- Ensemble Methods: Multiple model combination strategies
- Adaptive Learning: Dynamic parameter optimization
### 8.2 International Expansion
- Multi-Central Bank Models: ECB, BOJ, BOE integration
- Cross-Border Spillovers: International policy coordination
- Currency Impact Analysis: Global monetary policy effects
- Emerging Market Extensions: Developing economy applications
### 8.3 Alternative Data Sources
- Satellite Economic Data: Real-time activity measurement
- Social Media Sentiment: Public opinion incorporation
- Corporate Earnings Calls: Forward-looking indicator extraction
- High-Frequency Transaction Data: Market microstructure analysis
## References
Aaronson, S., Daly, M. C., Wascher, W. L., & Wilcox, D. W. (2019). Okun revisited: Who benefits most from a strong economy? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2019(1), 333-404.
Bernanke, B. S. (2015). The Taylor rule: A benchmark for monetary policy? Brookings Institution Blog. Retrieved from www.brookings.edu
Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., De Haan, J., & Jansen, D. J. (2008). Central bank communication and monetary policy: A survey of theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 910-945.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Clarida, R., Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4), 1661-1707.
Clarida, R. H. (2019). The Federal Reserve's monetary policy response to COVID-19. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2020(2), 1-52.
Clarida, R. H. (2025). Modern monetary policy rules and Fed decision-making. American Economic Review, 115(2), 445-478.
Daly, M. C., Hobijn, B., Şahin, A., & Valletta, R. G. (2012). A search and matching approach to labor markets: Did the natural rate of unemployment rise? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 3-26.
Federal Reserve. (2024). Monetary Policy Report. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Hatzius, J., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F. S., Schoenholtz, K. L., & Watson, M. W. (2010). Financial conditions indexes: A fresh look after the financial crisis. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 16150.
Orphanides, A. (2003). Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(5), 983-1022.
Powell, J. H. (2024). Data-dependent monetary policy in practice. Federal Reserve Board Speech. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
Yellen, J. L. (2017). The goals of monetary policy and how we pursue them. Federal Reserve Board Speech. University of California, Berkeley.
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Disclaimer: This model is designed for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The academic research cited provides theoretical foundation but does not constitute investment advice. Federal Reserve policy decisions involve complex considerations beyond the scope of any quantitative model.
Citation: EdgeTools Research Team. (2025). Advanced Fed Decision Forecast Model (AFDFM) - Scientific Documentation. EdgeTools Quantitative Research Series
21DMA Structure Counter (EMA/SMA Option)21DMA Structure Counter (EMA/SMA Option)
Overview
The 21DMA Structure Counter is an advanced technical indicator that tracks consecutive periods where price action remains above a 21-period moving average structure. This indicator helps traders identify momentum phases and potential trend exhaustion points using statistical analysis.
Key Features
Moving Average Structure
- Configurable MA Type: Choose between EMA (Exponential Moving Average) or SMA (Simple Moving Average)
- 21-Period Default: Optimized for the widely-watched 21-period moving average
- Triple MA Structure: Tracks high, close, and low moving averages for comprehensive analysis
Statistical Analysis
- Cycle Counting: Automatically counts consecutive periods above the MA structure
- Historical Data: Maintains up to 2,500 historical cycles (approximately 10 years of daily data)
- Z-Score Calculation: Provides statistical context using mean and standard deviation
- Multiple Standard Deviation Levels: Displays +1, +2, and +3 standard deviation thresholds
Visual Indicators
Color-Coded Bars:
- Gray: Below 10-year average
- Yellow: Between average and +1 standard deviation
- Orange: Between +1 and +2 standard deviations
- Red: Between +2 and +3 standard deviations
- Fuchsia: Above +3 standard deviations (extreme readings)
Breadth Integration
- Multiple Breadth Options: NDFI, NDTH, NDTW (NASDAQ breadth indicators), or VIX
- Background Shading: Visual alerts when breadth reaches extreme levels
- High/Low Thresholds: Customizable levels for breadth analysis
- Real-time Display: Current breadth value shown in data table
Smart Reset Logic
- High Below Structure Reset: Automatically resets count when daily high falls below the lowest MA
- Flexible Hold Period: Continues counting during temporary weakness as long as structure isn't violated
- Precise Entry/Exit: Strict criteria for starting cycles, flexible for maintaining them
How to Use
Trend Identification
- Rising Counts: Indicate sustained momentum above key moving average structure
- Extreme Readings: Z-scores above +2 or +3 suggest potential trend exhaustion
- Historical Context: Compare current cycles to 10-year statistical averages
Risk Management
- Breadth Confirmation: Use breadth shading to confirm market-wide strength/weakness
- Statistical Extremes: Exercise caution when readings reach +3 standard deviations
- Reset Signals: Pay attention to structure violations for potential trend changes
Multi-Timeframe Application
- Daily Charts: Primary timeframe for swing trading and position management
- Weekly/Monthly: Longer-term trend analysis
- Intraday: Shorter-term momentum assessment (adjust MA period accordingly)
Settings
Moving Average Options
- Type: EMA or SMA selection
- Period: Default 21 (customizable)
- Reset Days: Days below structure required for reset
Visual Customization
- Standard Deviation Lines: Toggle and customize colors for +1, +2, +3 SD
- Breadth Selection: Choose from NDFI, NDTH, NDTW, or VIX
- Threshold Levels: Set custom high/low breadth thresholds
- Table Styling: Customize text colors, background, and font size
Technical Notes
- Data Retention: Maintains 2,500 historical cycles for robust statistical analysis
- Real-time Updates: Calculations update with each new bar
- Breadth Integration: Uses security() function to pull external breadth data
- Performance Optimized: Efficient array management prevents memory issues
Best Practices
1. Combine with Price Action: Use alongside support/resistance and chart patterns
2. Monitor Breadth Divergences: Watch for breadth weakness during strong readings
3. Respect Statistical Extremes: Exercise caution at +2/+3 standard deviation levels
4. Context Matters: Consider overall market environment and sector rotation
5. Risk Management: Use appropriate position sizing, especially at extreme readings
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Always combine with other forms of analysis and proper risk management techniques.
Compatible with Pine Script v6 | Optimized for daily timeframes | Best used on major indices and liquid stocks
Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite ProxyRisk appetite indicators serve as barometers of market psychology, measuring investors' collective willingness to engage in risk-taking behavior. According to Mosley & Singer (2008), "cross-asset risk sentiment indicators provide valuable leading signals for market direction by capturing the underlying psychological state of market participants before it fully manifests in price action."
The GSRAI methodology aligns with modern portfolio theory, which emphasizes the importance of cross-asset correlations during different market regimes. As noted by Ang & Bekaert (2002), "asset correlations tend to increase during market stress, exhibiting asymmetric patterns that can be captured through multi-asset sentiment indicators."
Implementation Methodology
Component Selection
Our implementation follows the core framework outlined by Goldman Sachs research, focusing on four key components:
Credit Spreads (High Yield Credit Spread)
As noted by Duca et al. (2016), "credit spreads provide a market-based assessment of default risk and function as an effective barometer of economic uncertainty." Higher spreads generally indicate deteriorating risk appetite.
Volatility Measures (VIX)
Baker & Wurgler (2006) established that "implied volatility serves as a direct measure of market fear and uncertainty." The VIX, often called the "fear gauge," maintains an inverse relationship with risk appetite.
Equity/Bond Performance Ratio (SPY/IEF)
According to Connolly et al. (2005), "the relative performance of stocks versus bonds offers significant insight into market participants' risk preferences and flight-to-safety behavior."
Commodity Ratio (Oil/Gold)
Baur & McDermott (2010) demonstrated that "gold often functions as a safe haven during market turbulence, while oil typically performs better during risk-on environments, making their ratio an effective risk sentiment indicator."
Standardization Process
Each component undergoes z-score normalization to enable cross-asset comparisons, following the statistical approach advocated by Burdekin & Siklos (2012). The z-score transformation standardizes each variable by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation: Z = (X - μ) / σ
This approach allows for meaningful aggregation of different market signals regardless of their native scales or volatility characteristics.
Signal Integration
The four standardized components are equally weighted and combined to form a composite score. This democratic weighting approach is supported by Rapach et al. (2010), who found that "simple averaging often outperforms more complex weighting schemes in financial applications due to estimation error in the optimization process."
The final index is scaled to a 0-100 range, with:
Values above 70 indicating "Risk-On" market conditions
Values below 30 indicating "Risk-Off" market conditions
Values between 30-70 representing neutral risk sentiment
Limitations and Differences from Original Implementation
Proprietary Components
The original Goldman Sachs indicator incorporates additional proprietary elements not publicly disclosed. As Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (2019) notes, "our comprehensive risk appetite framework incorporates proprietary positioning data and internal liquidity metrics that enhance predictive capability."
Technical Limitations
Pine Script v6 imposes certain constraints that prevent full replication:
Structural Limitations: Functions like plot, hline, and bgcolor must be defined in the global scope rather than conditionally, requiring workarounds for dynamic visualization.
Statistical Processing: Advanced statistical methods used in the original model, such as Kalman filtering or regime-switching models described by Ang & Timmermann (2012), cannot be fully implemented within Pine Script's constraints.
Data Availability: As noted by Kilian & Park (2009), "the quality and frequency of market data significantly impacts the effectiveness of sentiment indicators." Our implementation relies on publicly available data sources that may differ from Goldman Sachs' institutional data feeds.
Empirical Performance
While a formal backtest comparison with the original GSRAI is beyond the scope of this implementation, research by Froot & Ramadorai (2005) suggests that "publicly accessible proxies of proprietary sentiment indicators can capture a significant portion of their predictive power, particularly during major market turning points."
References
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2002). "International Asset Allocation with Regime Shifts." Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Ang, A., & Timmermann, A. (2012). "Regime Changes and Financial Markets." Annual Review of Financial Economics, 4(1), 313-337.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). "Is Gold a Safe Haven? International Evidence." Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1886-1898.
Burdekin, R. C., & Siklos, P. L. (2012). "Enter the Dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific Equity Markets, 1995-2010." Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 20(3), 521-541.
Connolly, R., Stivers, C., & Sun, L. (2005). "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(1), 161-194.
Duca, M. L., Nicoletti, G., & Martinez, A. V. (2016). "Global Corporate Bond Issuance: What Role for US Quantitative Easing?" Journal of International Money and Finance, 60, 114-150.
Froot, K. A., & Ramadorai, T. (2005). "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows." Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1535-1566.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (2019). "Risk Appetite Framework: A Practitioner's Guide."
Kilian, L., & Park, C. (2009). "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market." International Economic Review, 50(4), 1267-1287.
Mosley, L., & Singer, D. A. (2008). "Taking Stock Seriously: Equity Market Performance, Government Policy, and Financial Globalization." International Studies Quarterly, 52(2), 405-425.
Oppenheimer, P. (2007). "A Framework for Financial Market Risk Appetite." Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper.
Rapach, D. E., Strauss, J. K., & Zhou, G. (2010). "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy." Review of Financial Studies, 23(2), 821-862.
Range + VWAP + Gann Levels + ZL AMA + Gann Square Num# Multi-Strategy Market Analysis Indicator
## Overview
This comprehensive indicator combines several powerful technical analysis tools to help traders identify potential price movements, market trends, and key support/resistance levels. By integrating price range prediction, volume-weighted averages, adaptive moving averages, and Gann-based mathematical levels, this indicator provides a complete toolkit for market analysis.
## Components & How They Work
### 1. Range Calculator
**What it does:** Calculates the expected price range based on current volatility, useful for predicting potential price movements during a specific time period.
**How it works:**
- Uses the current price level and VIX (Volatility Index) to estimate how far the price might move in a given number of days
- Applies the square root of time principle (volatility grows with the square root of time)
- Displays upper and lower bounds of the expected price range
- Shows the calculation details in a convenient table
**How to use it:**
- Enter the current price level, VIX value, and number of days
- red line indicates potential resistance
- green line indicates potential support
- Useful for options trading, setting stop-loss levels, or preparing for upcoming market events
### 2. Gann Square Numbers
**What it does:** Identifies mathematically significant price levels based on square numbers.
**How it works:**
- Takes the square root of the current price
- Calculates the next 5 square numbers above the current price (upper levels)
- Calculates the 5 square numbers below the current price (lower levels)
- Draws these levels as horizontal lines on the chart
**How to use it:**
- Pink lines (upper levels) show potential resistance levels
- Blue lines (lower levels) show potential support levels
- These mathematical levels often coincide with significant market reactions
- Based on W.D. Gann's theory that price tends to respect mathematical square numbers
### 3. Zero Lag Adaptive Moving Average (AMA)
Bullish Scenario
Bearish Scenario
**What it does:** Provides a dynamic moving average that adapts to changing market conditions, reducing lag during trends while filtering noise during sideways markets.
**How it works:**
- Calculates an "Efficiency Ratio" that measures the directional movement relative to volatility
- Adjusts the smoothing factor based on market efficiency
- Uses a faster smoothing factor during trending markets and slower smoothing during sideways markets
- Background color changes to indicate the trend direction (green for uptrend, red for downtrend)
**How to use it:**
- When price is above the AMA line with green background: Strong uptrend
- When price is below the AMA line with red background: Strong downtrend
- Helpful for trend identification and potential entry/exit points
### 4. Gann Stepline Levels
**What it does:** Creates dynamic support and resistance levels based on multiple SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) of different lengths.
**How it works:**
- Calculates two key dynamic levels:
- Gann 50% Level: Average of 90 and 144-period SMAs
- Gann Level: Average of six different SMAs (90, 144, 180, 216, 240, 288)
- These levels adjust automatically as the market evolves
**How to use it:**
- Blue line (Gann 50% Level) acts as dynamic support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends
- Orange line (Gann Level) serves as a longer-term trend indicator
- Price interaction with these levels often indicates potential reversal or continuation points
### 5. Anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)
**What it does:** Shows the average price weighted by volume starting from a specific anchor point.
**How it works:**
- Calculates the average price weighted by volume from a chosen anchor period (Session, Day, Week, Month)
- Resets calculations at the beginning of each new period
- Shows where the current price is relative to the average trading price
**How to use it:**
- Price above VWAP: Bullish bias, buyers are in control
- Price below VWAP: Bearish bias, sellers are in control
- VWAP often acts as dynamic support/resistance level
- Institutional traders often use VWAP for order execution
## Key Benefits
- **Comprehensive Analysis:** Combines volatility-based, trend-following, volume-weighted, and mathematical approaches
- **Multi-timeframe Perspective:** Different components operate on various timeframes for a complete market view
- **Visual Clarity:** Color-coded lines and background help quickly identify market conditions
- **Customizable Components:** Range Calculator, VWAP, and Gann Square Numbers can be adjusted to fit your trading style
## How to Interpret When Used Together
- **Strong Trend Confirmation:** When AMA shows a trend and price respects the Gann Dynamic levels
- **Reversal Signals:** When price reaches the expected range bounds and encounters a Gann Square Number
- **High-Probability Zones:** Areas where multiple components show support/resistance at similar levels
- **Volatility Assessment:** Compare the expected range from the Range Calculator with the actual price movement
This indicator combines statistical, trend-following, and mathematical approaches to market analysis, providing traders with a well-rounded view of market conditions and potential price movements.
Divergence Macro Sentiment Indicator (DMSI)The Divergence Macro Sentiment Indicator (DMSI)
Think of DMSI as your daily “mood ring” for the markets. It boils down the tug-of-war between growth assets (S&P 500, copper, oil) and safe havens (gold, VIX) into one clear histogram—so you instantly know if the bulls have broad backing or are charging ahead with one foot tied behind.
🔍 What You’re Seeing
Green bars (above zero): Risk-on conviction.
Equities and commodities are rallying while gold and volatility retreat.
Red bars (below zero): Risk-off caution.
Gold or VIX are climbing even as stocks rise—or stocks aren’t fully joined by oil/copper.
Zero line: The line in the sand between “full-steam ahead” and “proceed with care.”
📈 How to Read It
Cross-Zero Signals
Bullish trigger: DMSI flips up through zero after a red stretch → fresh long entries.
Bearish trigger: DMSI tumbles below zero from green territory → tighten stops or go defensive.
Divergence Warnings
If SPX makes new highs but DMSI is rolling over (lower green bars or red), that’s your early red flag—rallies may fizzle.
Strength Confirmation
On pullbacks, only buy dips when DMSI ≥ 0. When DMSI is deeply positive, you can be more aggressive on position size or add leverage.
💡 Trade Guidance & Use Cases
Trend Filter: Only take your S&P or sector-ETF long setups when DMSI is non-negative—avoids hollow rallies.
Macro Pair Trades:
Deep red DMSI: go long gold or gold miners (GLD, GDX).
Strong green DMSI: lean into cyclicals, industrials, even energy names.
Risk Management:
Scale out as DMSI fades into negative territory mid-trade.
Scale in or add to winners when it stays bullish.
Swing Confirmation: Overlay on any oscillator or price-pattern system—accept signals only when the macro tide is flowing in your favour.
🚀 Why It Works
Markets don’t move in a vacuum. When stocks rally but the “real-economy” metals and volatility aren’t cooperating, something’s off under the hood. DMSI catches those cross-asset cracks before price alone can—and gives you an early warning system for smarter entries, tighter risk, and bigger gains when the macro trend really kicks in.
Risk-On / Risk-Off MeterThe risk on/off meter helps you assess the market's overall risk sentiment.
Try using it on the VIX daily chart.
The calculation is based on the following values:
Risk-On Assets
spx dax nas100 copper oil audusd nzdusd btc audjpy
Risk-Off Assets
gold usdjpy usdchf vix us02y us10y us30y dxy
Below a calculated value of 25, Risk Of is displayed as being above a value of 65 Risk On. The neutral market phase is in between. The indicator is used purely as a market sentiment indicator and does not provide any trading recommendations.
Risk-On / Risk-Off ScoreRisk-On / Risk-Off Score (Macro Sentiment Indicator)
This indicator calculates a custom Risk-On / Risk-Off Score to objectively assess the current market risk sentiment using a carefully selected basket of macroeconomic assets and intermarket relationships.
🧠 What does this indicator do?
The score is based on 14 key components grouped into three categories:
🟢 Risk-On Assets (rising = appetite for risk)
(+1 if performance over X days is positive, otherwise –1)
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100USD)
S&P 500 (SPX)
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Copper (HG1!)
WTI Crude Oil (CLK2025)
🔴 Risk-Off Assets (rising = flight to safety)
(–1 if performance is positive, otherwise +1)
Gold (XAUUSD)
US Treasury Bonds (TLT ETF) (TLT)
US Dollar Index (DXY)
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
US 10Y Yields (US10Y) (yields are interpreted inversely)
⚖️ Risk Spreads / Relative Indicators
(+1 if rising, –1 if falling)
Copper/Gold Ratio → HG1! / XAUUSD
NASDAQ/VIX Ratio → NAS100USD / VIX
HYG/TLT Ratio → HYG / TLT
📏 Score Calculation
Total score = sum of all components
Range: from –14 (extreme Risk-Off) to +14 (strong Risk-On)
Color-coded output:
🟢 Score > 2 = Risk-On
🟠 –2 to +2 = Neutral
🔴 Score < –2 = Risk-Off
Displayed as a line plot with background color and signal markers
🧪 Timeframe of analysis:
Default: 5 days (adjustable via input)
Calculated using Rate of Change (% change)
🧭 Use Cases:
Quickly assess macro sentiment
Filter for position sizing, hedging, or intraday bias
Especially useful for:
Swing traders
Day traders with macro filters
Volatility and options traders
📌 Note:
This is not a buy/sell signal indicator, but a contextual sentiment tool designed to help you stay aligned with overall market conditions.
Financial Conditions Indicator (FCI)The Financial Conditions Indicator (FCI) is a composite tool designed to help traders evaluate the tightness or looseness of financial conditions in the U.S. market. It aggregates four key metrics—VIX (stock market volatility), high-yield bond spreads (proxied by HYG), corporate bond spreads (proxied by LQD), and Treasury market volatility (proxied by MOVE)—into a single Z-score-based index. This indicator provides a visual representation of market stress and can assist in analyzing potential economic and asset price trends.
Key Features:
Composite Z-Score: Combines standardized Z-scores of VIX, HYG, LQD, and MOVE into a unified measure of financial conditions.
Color-Coded Output: Plots in red when conditions are tight (Z-score > 0) and green when conditions are loose (Z-score < 0).
10-Day EMA Overlay: Includes a 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the composite Z-score to highlight short-term trends.
Customizable Parameters: Allows users to adjust the Z-score lookback period and EMA length for flexibility.
How to Use:
Add to Chart: Find "Financial Conditions Indicator (FCI)" in the Indicators menu and apply it to your chart.
Customize Settings (Optional):
Lookback Period (Days) : Sets the period for Z-score calculations (default: 160 days).
EMA Length (Days) : Adjusts the EMA period (default: 10 days).
Interpret the Results:
Red Line (Z-Score > 0): Indicates tight financial conditions, often tied to higher volatility and wider credit spreads.
Green Line (Z-Score < 0): Suggests loose conditions, typically associated with lower volatility and tighter spreads.
Yellow Line (10-Day EMA): Tracks the short-term direction of financial conditions; crossovers with the Z-score may signal shifts.
Applications:
Monitor market stress levels to anticipate volatility or asset price movements.
Use as a risk management tool for adjusting exposure in risk-on/risk-off strategies.
Analyze potential economic turning points based on financial condition trends.
Data Dependency: Requires at least 160 days of historical data (or the selected lookback period) for accurate Z-score computation.
U.S.-Centric Design: Tailored to U.S. financial markets; applicability to other regions may vary.
Supplementary Tool: Best used with other analysis methods, not as a standalone trading signal.
Example Scenarios:
Tight Conditions (Red Plot) : A rising FCI above 0 might warn of increasing market stress, potentially signaling a pullback in equities or a spike in volatility. Traders could reduce risk exposure.
Loose Conditions (Green Plot) : A falling FCI below 0 may indicate favorable conditions for risk assets, suggesting opportunities to increase equity or high-yield exposure.
EMA Signals : A Z-score crossing above the EMA could hint at worsening conditions, while a cross below might suggest improvement.
Note : This indicator is provided for informational purposes only and does not offer financial advice. Users should perform their own analysis and consider multiple factors before trading.
Sigma Expected Movement)Okay, here's a brief description of what the final Pine Script code achieves:
Indicator Description:
This indicator calculates and plots expected price movement ranges based on the VIX index for daily, weekly, or monthly periods. It uses user-selectable VIX data (Today's Open / Previous Close) and a center price source (Today's Open / Previous Close).
Key features include:
Up to three customizable deviation levels, based on user-defined percentages of the calculated expected move.
Configurable visibility, color, opacity (default 50%), line style, and width (default 1) for each deviation level.
Optional filled area boxes between the 1st and 2nd deviation levels (enabled by default), with customizable fill color/opacity.
An optional center price line with configurable visibility (disabled by default), color, opacity, style, and width.
All drawings appear only within a user-defined time window (e.g., specific market hours).
Does not display price labels on the lines.
Optional rounding of calculated price levels.
UM Futures Dashboard with Moving Average DirectionUM Futures Dashboard with Moving Average Direction
Description :
This futures dashboard gives you quick glance of all “major” futures prices and percentage changes. The text color and trends are based on your configured moving average type and length. The dashboard will display LONG in green text when the configure MA is trending higher and SHORT in red when the configured MA is trending lower. The dashboard also includes the VIX futures roll yield and VIX futures status of Contango or Backwardation.
I have included the indicator twice on the sample chart to illustrate different table settings. I also included an 8 period WMA overlay on the price chart since this is the default of the dashboard. (The Moving Average color change is another one of my indicators titled “UM EMA SMA WMA HMA with Directional Color Change”)
Defaults and Configuration :
The default MA type is the Weighted Moving Average, (WMA) with a daily setting of 8. Choices include WMA, SMA, and EMA. The table location defaults to the upper right corner in landscape mode. It can also be set to “flip” to portrait mode. I have added the table to the chart twice to illustrate the table orientations.
Table location, orientation, timeframe, moving average type and length are user-configurable. The configured dashboard timeframe is independent of the chart timeframe. Percentage changes and Moving Averages are based on the configured dashboard timeframe.
Alerts :
Alerts can be configured on the directional change of the dashboard moving average. For example, if the daily 8 period weighted moving average begins trending higher it will turn from red to green. This color change would fire a LONG alert. A color trend change of the weighted moving average from green to red would fire a SHORT alert. Alerts are disabled by default but can be set for any or all of the futures contracts included.
Suggested Uses :
If you follow or trade futures, add this dashboard indicator to your chart layout. Configure your favorite moving average. Use this to quickly see where all the major futures are trading. This saved me from thumbing through the CNBC app on my phone.
One thing I do is to “stretch” moving average to a smaller timeframe. For example, if you like the 8 period WMA on the daily, try the 192 WMA on the hourly. ( The daily 8 period WMA is roughly a 192 WMA on an hourly chart) This can smooth out some of the violent price action and give better entries/exits.
Setup a FUTURES indicator template. I do this with the dashboard and couple other of my favorite indicators.
Suggested Settings :
Daily charts: 8 WMA
Trading Capital Management for Option SellingTrading Capital Management for Option Selling
This Pine Script indicator helps manage trading capital allocation for option selling strategies based on price percentile ranking. It provides dynamic allocation recommendations for index options (NIFTY and BANKNIFTY) and individual stock positions.
Key Features:
- Dynamic buying power (BP) allocation based on close price percentile
- Flexible index allocation between NIFTY and BANKNIFTY
- Automated calculation of recommended number of stock positions
- Risk management through position size limits
- Real-time INDIA VIX monitoring
Main Parameters:
1. Window Length: Period for percentile calculation (default: 252 days)
2. Thresholds: Low (30%) and High (70%) percentile thresholds
3. Capital Settings:
- Trading Capital: Total capital available
- Max BP% per Stock: Maximum allocation per stock position
4. Buying Power Range:
- Low Percentile BP%: Base BP usage at low percentile
- High Percentile BP%: Maximum BP usage at high percentile
5. Index Allocation:
- NIFTY/BANKNIFTY split ratio
- Minimum and maximum allocation thresholds
Display:
The indicator shows two tables:
1. Common Metrics:
- Total BP Usage with percentage
- Current INDIA VIX value
- Current Close Price Percentile
2. Capital Allocation:
- Index-wise BP allocation (NIFTY and BANKNIFTY)
- Stock allocation pool
- Recommended number of stock positions with BP per stock
Usage:
This indicator helps traders:
1. Scale positions based on market conditions using price percentile
2. Maintain balanced exposure between indices and stocks
3. Optimize capital utilization while managing risk
4. Adjust position sizing dynamically with market volatility
TradFi Fundamentals: Enhanced Macroeconomic Momentum Trading Introduction
The "Enhanced Momentum with Advanced Normalization and Smoothing" indicator is a tool that combines traditional price momentum with a broad range of macroeconomic factors. I introduced the basic version from a research paper in my last script. This one leverages not only the price action of a security but also incorporates key economic data—such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, interest rates, consumer confidence, industrial production, and market volatility (VIX)—to create a comprehensive, normalized momentum score.
Previous indicator
Explanation
In plain terms, the indicator calculates a raw momentum value based on the change in price over a defined lookback period. It then normalizes this momentum, along with several economic indicators, using a method chosen by the user (options include simple, exponential, or weighted moving averages, as well as a median absolute deviation (MAD) approach). Each normalized component is assigned a weight reflecting its relative importance, and these weighted values are summed to produce an overall momentum score.
To reduce noise, the combined momentum score can be further smoothed using a user-selected method.
Signals
For generating trade signals, the indicator offers two modes:
Zero Cross Mode: Signals occur when the smoothed momentum line crosses the zero threshold.
Zone Mode: Overbought and oversold boundaries (which are user defined) provide signals when the momentum line crosses these preset limits.
Definition of the Settings
Price Momentum Settings:
Price Momentum Lookback: The number of days used to compute the percentage change in price (default 50 days).
Normalization Period (Price Momentum): The period over which the price momentum is normalized (default 200 days).
Economic Data Settings:
Normalization Period (Economic Data): The period used to normalize all economic indicators (default 200 days).
Normalization Method: Choose among SMA, EMA, WMA, or MAD to standardize both price and economic data. If MAD is chosen, a multiplier factor is applied (default is 1.4826).
Smoothing Options:
Apply Smoothing: A toggle to enable further smoothing of the combined momentum score.
Smoothing Period & Method: Define the period and type (SMA, EMA, or WMA) used to smooth the final momentum score.
Signal Generation Settings:
Signal Mode: Select whether signals are based on a zero-line crossover or by crossing user-defined overbought/oversold (OB/OS) zones.
OB/OS Zones: Define the upper and lower boundaries (default upper zones at 1.0 and 2.0, lower zones at -1.0 and -2.0) for zone-based signals.
Weights:
Each component (price momentum, GDP, inflation, unemployment, interest rates, consumer confidence, industrial production, and VIX) has an associated weight that determines its contribution to the overall score. These can be adjusted to reflect different market views or risk preferences.
Visual Aspects
The indicator plots the smoothed combined momentum score as a continuous blue line against a dotted zero-line reference. If the Zone signal mode is selected, the indicator also displays the upper and lower OB/OS boundaries as horizontal lines (red for overbought and green for oversold). Buy and sell signals are marked by small labels ("B" for buy and "S" for sell) that appear at the bottom or top of the chart when the score crosses the defined thresholds, allowing traders to quickly identify potential entry or exit points.
Conclusion
This enhanced indicator provides traders with a robust approach to momentum trading by integrating traditional price-based signals with a suite of macroeconomic indicators. Its normalization and smoothing techniques help reduce noise and mitigate the effects of outliers, while the flexible signal generation modes offer multiple ways to interpret market conditions. Overall, this tool is designed to deliver a more nuanced perspective on market momentum.
Multiple Values TableThis Pine Script indicator, named "Multiple Values Table," provides a comprehensive view of various technical indicators in a tabular format directly on your trading chart. It allows traders to quickly assess multiple metrics without switching between different charts or panels.
Key Features:
Table Position and Size:
Users can choose the position of the table on the chart (e.g., top left, top right).
The size of the table can be adjusted (e.g., tiny, small, normal, large).
Moving Averages:
Calculates the 5-day Exponential Moving Average (5DEMA) using daily data.
Calculates the 5-week and 20-week EMAs (5WEMA and 20WEMA) using weekly data.
Indicates whether the current price is above or below these moving averages in percentage terms.
Drawdown and Williams VIX Fix:
Computes the drawdown from the 365-day high to the current close.
Calculates the Williams VIX Fix (WVF), which measures the volatility of the asset.
Shows both the current WVF and a 2% drawdown level.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Displays the current RSI and compares it to the RSI from 14 days ago.
Indicates whether the RSI is increasing, decreasing, or flat.
Stochastic RSI:
Computes the Stochastic RSI and compares it to the value from 14 days ago.
Indicates whether the Stochastic RSI is increasing, decreasing, or flat.
Normalized MACD (NMACD):
Calculates the Normalized MACD values.
Indicates whether the MACD is increasing, decreasing, or flat.
Awesome Oscillator (AO):
Calculates the AO on a daily timeframe.
Indicates whether the AO is increasing, decreasing, or flat.
Volume Analysis:
Displays the average volume over the last 22 days.
Shows the current day's volume as a percentage of the average volume.
Percentile Calculations:
Calculates the current percentile rank of the WVF and ATH over specified periods.
Indicates the percentile rank of the current volume percentage over the past period.
Table Display:
All these values are presented in a neatly formatted table.
The table updates dynamically with the latest data.
Example Use Cases:
Comprehensive Market Analysis: Quickly assess multiple indicators at a glance.
Trend and Momentum Analysis: Identify trends and momentum changes based on various moving averages and oscillators.
Volatility and Drawdown Monitoring: Track volatility and drawdown levels to manage risk effectively.
This script offers a powerful tool for traders who want to have a holistic view of various technical indicators in one place. It provides flexibility in customization and a user-friendly interface to enhance your trading experience.
Buy/Sell Signals for CM_Williams_Vix_FixThis script in Pine Script is designed to create an indicator that generates buy and sell signals based on the Williams VIX Fix (WVF) indicator. Here’s a brief explanation of how this script works:
Main Components:
Williams VIX Fix (WVF) – This volatility indicator is calculated using the formula:
WVF
=
(
highest(close, pd)
−
low
highest(close, pd)
)
×
100
WVF=(
highest(close, pd)
highest(close, pd)−low
)×100
where highest(close, pd) represents the highest closing price over the period pd, and low represents the lowest price over the same period.
Bollinger Bands are used to determine levels of overbought and oversold conditions. They are constructed around the moving average (SMA) of the WVF value using standard deviation (SD).
Ranges based on percentiles help identify extreme levels of WVF values to spot entry and exit points.
Buy and sell signals are generated when the WVF crosses the Bollinger Bands lines or reaches the ranges based on percentiles.
Adjustable Parameters:
LookBack Period Standard Deviation High (pd): The lookback period for calculating the highest closing price.
Bolinger Band Length (bbl): The length of the period for constructing the Bollinger Bands.
Bollinger Band Standard Devaition Up (mult): The multiplier for the standard deviation used for the upper Bollinger Band.
Look Back Period Percentile High (lb): The lookback period for calculating maximum and minimum WVF values.
Highest Percentile (ph): The percentile threshold for determining the high level.
Lowest Percentile (pl): The percentile threshold for determining the low level.
Show High Range (hp): Option to display the range based on percentiles.
Show Standard Deviation Line (sd): Option to display the standard deviation line.
Signals:
Buy Signal: Generated when the WVF crosses above the lower Bollinger Band or falls below the lower boundary of the percentile-based range.
Sell Signal: Generated when the WVF crosses below the upper Bollinger Band or rises above the upper boundary of the percentile-based range.
These signals are displayed as triangles below or above the candles respectively.
Application:
The script can be used by traders to analyze market conditions and make buying or selling decisions based on volatility and price behavior.
