Global Money Supply USD-AdjustedGlobal Money Supply Aggregates
- US, China, EU, Japan, UK
- Korea, India, Canada, HK, Australia
- Taiwan, Brazil, Swiss, Russia, Mexico
- Thailand, Indonesia, Saudi, Singapore, Vietnam
Unfortunately, TV Pine can only take in 40 tickers, Each country has Money Supply Data adjusted against its FX to USD.
The formula in TV only can contain 10 tickers. So would recommend doing it up yourself on the first big 5 countries,
Anyway US and China constitute close to 50% of the global money supply.
However, one can argue whether money supply data (broad money) is valid nowadays. But I would bring up that this is just for comparison and trend purposes. Yes, M3 was removed from the US Fed data releases in end-2005.
Aggregating all of the above tickers yield me around 120tn of money supply, USD-adjusted.
There's pretty much other countries that should be included but due to the lack of data and small size of the country, it is omitted.
Examples:
- Heavily Sanctioned: Iran (400-500bn) and Iraq (200-300bn)
- No Data/Bad Data: Algeria (100bn), Bangladesh (110bn)
- Fallen Angels: Venezuela (100bn?), Argentina (120bn)
- 400-500bn club: Israel, Turkey, Poland, Sweden, Ireland, UAE, Msia, Chile
- 200-300bn club: Norway, Czech, Philippines, S.Africa, New Zealand, Egypt, Denmark, Qatar
- 100bn club: Colombia, Lebanon, Pakistan, Morocco, Romania, Hungary, Nigeria, Kuwait
- GDP 1bn club: Peru, Kazakhstan, Angola, Sudan, Ukraine, Ecuador
All these could add up to 10-15tn money supply, but with currencies with bad adoption on some. End of the day, we still living in a dollarised world, with the big 5 nations taking up to 80% of the officially published money supply. The unfortunate issue is that the money supply data isn't that forward-looking. A simple linear extrapolation of historical 3-month rolling average for next month estimates can be decent, with possibility of manual meddling to add adjustments on huge macro-events eg QE infinity.
Perhaps, additional tweaking would be inflation-adjusting this. Against SPX, some housing index, crude oil, gold.
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Price Distance RatioThis study plots the ratio between current price and the price N days ago.
With N input that is configurable, users can find optimal long/short entries when price is in an established trend and price has diverge far from a given local peak or all time high.
With many years of stock trading the analysis indicates a connection between the distance of price and subsequent returns.
Portfolios of stocks with lower price to local highes ratios generally underperformed portfolios of stocks with higher prices to peaks reached similar N days ago.
The highest returns to previous peak are recorded when buying at the biggest dip.
For example, the purchase at 20% drawdown could generate 25% when price returns to the peak. The purchase at 50% drawdown could generate bigger, i.e. 100% return, when price returns to the peak. And the purchase at 90% drawdown could generate much bigger, i.e. 900% return, in a case the price returns to the peak.
However, buying very far below local peaks on almost all holding periods produces lower CAGR returns because of "timing adjustment". In simple words, typically the drawdown takes less time vs. further recovery.
For example:
👉 The largest BTC drawdown in 2013-2015 took 410 days (Peak-to-Valley) . And the recovery of BTC to new highs took 771 days (Valley-to-Peak) after that.
👉 The 3rd longest drawdown in BTC took 363 days (observed from December 17, 2017 to December 15, 2018). And further recovery in BTC to its new high took almost two years - 716 days .
👉The 4th longest drawdown in BTC took 162 days (observed from June 08, 2011 to November 17, 2011). And further recovery in BTC to its new high took more than a year - 469 days .
The concept of this study could recognizes at least 4 different modes of action.
👉 In a clearly established upward trend traders should be buying (following the trend) when Ratio is above 100% and reducing the size when Ratio turns below 100%.
👉 Conversely, in a clearly established downward trend traders should be shorted when Ratio is below 100% and covering when the Ratio turns back to 100%.
👉 In a sideways movement traders are advised to wait carefully if the Ratio near 100% for a long time, and take a position the trend is clear.
👉 Chartists can analyze the dynamic of the indicator - both in terms of trends and overall level. For example as it shown at the chart.
The understading of the study and rules of "timing adjustments" could genarate the awesome opportunities for stock options traders also, with strategies of selling uncovered call options and vertical call spreads.
// Many thanks to @HPotter and @Wheeelman wizards for their continious support and assistance.
True Trend Average BandsThis is the indicator I am most proud of. After reading Glenn Neely's book "Mastering Eliott Waves" / "Neowave" and chatting with @timwest who got acknowledged by Neely, we came up with the idea of an moving average which does calculate the real average price since a trend started. Addionally I adapted a method from Neely Neowave and Tim Wests TimeAtMode to not force a timeframe on a chart but instead let the charts data decide which timeframe to use, to then calculate the real average price since the trend started.
It took me a while to get this right and coded, so take a moment and dive deeper and you might learn something new.
We assume that the price is in multiple trends on multiple timeframes, this is caused by short term traders, long term traders and investors who trade on different timeframes. To find out in which timeframe the important trends are, we have to look out for significant lows and highs. Then we change the timeframe in the chart to a value so that we have 10 to 20 bars since the significant low/high. While new bars are printed, and we reach more than 20 bars, we have to switch to a higher timeframe so we have 10 to 20 bars again. In the chart you see two significant trends: a downtrend on the 3 week timeframe and an uptrend from the 2 month timeframe. Based on the logic I have described, these are the two important timeframes to watch right now for the spx (there is another uptrend in the yearly chart, which is not shown here).
Now that we understand how to find the important timeframes, let's look what the magic in this script is that tells us the real average price since a trend started.
I developed a new type of moving average, which includes only the prices since a trend started. The difference to the regular sma is that it will not include prices which happened before the significant low or high happened. For example, if a top happened in a market 10 days ago, the regular sma20 would be calculated by 10 bars which happened before the top and 10 bars which happened after the top. If we want to know the average price of the last 10 bars we manually have to change the ma20 to the ma10 which is annoying manual work, additionally even if we use the ma10 in this case, and we look at yesterday's bar the ma10 will include 9 bars from after the top and one bar before the top, so the ma10 would only show the real average price for the current bar which is not what we want.
To come up with a solution to this problem, the True Trend Average searches for the lowest/highest bar in a given period (20 bars). Then starts to calculate the average value since the low/high. For example: if the price reaches a new 20 day high and then trades below it, the day of the high will be the sma1, the day after it's the sma2, ... up to the maximum look back length.
This way, we always know what the average price would have been if someone sold/bought a little bit every bar of his investment since the high/low.
Why is this even important? Let's assume we missed selling the top or buying the low, and think it would have been at least better to buy/sell a little bit since the new trend started. Once the price reaches the true trend average again, we can buy/sell, and it would be as good as selling/buying a little bit every day. We find prices to buy the dip and sell the bounce, which are as good as scaling in/out.
There is a lot more we can learn from these price levels but I think it is better to let you figure out yourself what you can learn from the information given by this indicator. Think about how market participants who accumulate or distribute feel when prices are above or below certain levels.
Now that we understand this new type of moving average, let's look into the lines we see in the chart:
The upper red band line shows the true trend average high price since the last significant top within 20 bars.
The lower red band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant top within 20 bars.
The lower green band line shows the true trend average low price since the last significant low within 20 bars.
The upper green band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant low within 20 bars.
The centerline is the average between the upper red band and the lower green band.
The teal lines show 1 standard deviation from the outer bands.
Before today only a few people had access to this indicator, now that it is public and open source, I am curious if you will find it useful and what you will do with it. Please share your findings.
/edit: The chart only shows the 3week timeframe so here are the other two trends from the 2month and 1year timeframe
Expected Move Plotter IntradayHello everyone!
I am releasing my Intra-day expected move plotter indicator.
About the indicator:
This indicator looks at 3 differing time frames, the 15, 30 and 60 minute time frames.
It calculates the average move from high to low over the past 5 candle period and then plots out the expected move based on that average.
It also attempts to determine the sentiment. How it does this is by taking the average of the High, Low and Close of the previous 5 minute candle and comparing it in relation to the close of the current 5 minute candle. It essentially is the premise of pivot points.
Each time frame can be shut off or selected based on your preference, as well as the sentiment fills.
How to use:
Please play around with it and determine how you feel you could best use it, but I can share with you some tips that I have picked up from using this.
Wait for a clear rejection of respect of a level:
Once you have confirmed rejection or support, you can scalp to the next support level:
As well, you can switch between the 30 and 60 minute time frames as reference
30 Minute:
And that's it!
Its a very simplistic indicator, but it is quite helpful to help identify potential areas of reversal.
There really isn't much to it!
Also, it can be used on any stock!
As always, I have provided a quick tutorial video for your reference, linked below:
Let me know if you have any questions or recommendations for modification to make the indicator more useful and helpful.
Thanks so much for checking it out and trying it out everyone!
As always, safe trades and green days!
Mean Reversion DotsMarkets tend to mean revert. This indicator plots a moving average from a higher time frame (type of MA and length selectable by the user). It then calculates standard deviations in two dimensions:
- Standard deviation of move of price away from this moving average
- Standard deviations of number of bars spent in this extended range
The indicator plots a table in the upper right corner with the % of distance of price from the moving average. It then plots 'mean reversion dots' once price has been 1 or more standard deviations away from the moving average for one or more standard deviations number of bars. The dots change color, becoming more intense, the longer the move persists. Optionally, the user can display the standard deviations in movement away from the moving average as channels, and the user can also select which levels of moves they want to see. Opting to see only more extreme moves will result in fewer signals, but signals that are more likely to imminently result in mean reversion back to the moving average.
In my opinion, this indicator is more likely to be useful for indices, futures, commodities, and select larger cap names.
Combinations I have found that work well for SPX are plotting the 30min 21ema on a 5min chart and the daily 21ema on an hourly chart.
In many cases, once mean reversion dots for an extreme enough move (level 1.3 or 2.2 and above) begin to appear, a trade may be initiated from a support/resistance level. A safer way to use these signals is to consider them as a 'heads up' that the move is overextended, and then look for a buy/sell signal from another indicator to initiate a position.
Note: I borrowed the code for the higher timeframe MA from the below indicator. I added the ability to select type of MA.
Ticker vs IndexI was exploring a simple idea how I can visualize the ticker performance against the underlying Index (or any other ticker) performance.
how it works:
When the line is moving up (blue zone), the ticker is performing better than the underlying index (e.g. SPX)(configurable).
When the line is moving down (red zone), the ticker is performing worse than the underlying index.
How to use it:
Use as confirmation always in conjunction with other (main) indicators, avoid "buy" when indicator is in the red zone
Also, crossing over the zero line is often an indication for an upcoming upward move
Try to different SMA length - default is 20 but 10 was often showing better results
(No financial advise, for testing purposes only)
SPX_Strikes_OpcionSigmaThis is a tool to know the strikes to use for Iron Condor.
You can change the colors for the lines.
It uses the VIX to estimate the movement of the SPX index.
ILM CFTC COT Legacy PlotUse this indicator on Daily Timeframe
Please refer to the below link for CFTC Disaggregated COT
www.cftc.gov
This script is very similar to COT Financial Plot indicator except that it plots the data for Futures in Legacy buckets Commercial vs. Non-Commercial
Physics CandlesPhysics Candles embed volume and motion physics directly onto price candles or market internals according to the cyclic pattern of financial securities. The indicator works on both real-time “ticks” and historical data using statistical modeling to highlight when these values, like volume or momentum, is unusual or relatively high for some periodic window in time. Each candle is made out of one or more sub-candles that each contain their own information of motion, which converts to the color and transparency, or brightness, of that particular candle segment. The segments extend throughout the entire candle, both body and wicks, and Thick Wicks can be implemented to see the color coding better. This candle segmentation allows you to see if all the volume or energy is evenly distributed throughout the candle or highly contained in one small portion of it, and how intense these values are compared to similar time periods without going to lower time frames. Candle segmentation can also change a trader’s perspective on how valuable the information is. A “low” volume candle, for instance, could signify high value short-term stopping volume if the volume is all concentrated in one segment.
The Candles are flexible. The physics information embedded on the candles need not be from the same price security or market internal as the chart when using the Physics Source option, and multiple Candles can be overlayed together. You could embed stock price Candles with market volume, market price Candles with stock momentum, market structure with internal acceleration, stock price with stock force, etc. My particular use case is scalping the SPX futures market (ES), whose price action is also dictated by the volume action in the associated cash market, or SPY, as well as a host of other securities. Physics allows you to embed the ES volume on the SPY price action, or the SPY volume on the ES price action, or you can combine them both by overlaying two Candle streams and increasing the Number of Overlays option to two. That option decreases the transparency levels of your coloring scheme so that overlaying multiple Candles converges toward the same visual color intensity as if you had one. The Candle and Physics Sources allows for both Symbols and Spreads to visualize Candle physics from a single ticker or some mathematical transformation of tickers.
Due to certain TradingView programming restrictions, each Candle can only be made out of a maximum of 8 candle segments, or an “8-bit” resolution. Since limits are just an opportunity to go beyond, the user has the option to stack multiple Candle indicators together to further increase the candle resolution. If you don’t want to see the Candles for some particular period of the day, you can hide them, or use the hiding feature to have multiple Candles calibrated to show multiple parts of the trading day. Securities tend to have low volume after hours with sharp spikes at the open or close. Multiple Candles can be used for multiple parts of the trading day to accommodate these different cycles in volume.
The Candles do not need be associated with the nominal security listed on the TV chart. The Candle Source allows the user to look at AAPL Candles, for instance, while on a TSLA or SPY chart, each with their respective volume actions integrated into the candles, for instance, to allow the user to see multiple security price and volume correlation on a single chart.
The physics information currently embeddable on Candles are volume or time, velocity, momentum, acceleration, force, and kinetic energy. In order to apply equations of motion containing a mass variable to financial securities, some analogous value for mass must be assumed. Traders often regard volume or time as inextricable variables to a securities price that can indicate the direction and strength of a move. Since mass is the inextricable variable to calculating the momentum, force, or kinetic energy of motion, the user has the option to assume either time or volume is analogous to mass. Volume may be a better option for mass as it is not strictly dependent on the speed of a security, whereas time is.
Data transformations and outlier statistics are used to color code the intensity of the physics for each candle segment relative to past periodic behavior. A million shares during pre-market or a million shares during noontime may be more intense signals than a typical million shares traded at the open, and should have more intense color signals. To account for a specific cyclic behavior in the market, the user can specify the Window and Cycle Time Frames. The Window Time Frame splits up a Cycle into windows, samples and aggregates the statistics for each window, then compares the current physics values against past values in the same window. Intraday traders may benefit from using a Daily Cycle with a 30-minute Window Time Frame and 1-minute Sample Time Frame. These settings sample and compare the physics of 1-minute candles within the current 30-minute window to the same 30-minute window statistics for all past trading days, up until the data limit imposed by TradingView, or until the Data Collection Start Date specified in the settings. Longer-term traders may benefit from using a Monthly Cycle with a Weekly Time Frame, or a Yearly Cycle with a Quarterly Time Frame.
Multiple statistics and data transformation methods are available to convey relative intensity in different ways for different trading signals. Physics Candles allows for both Normal and Log-Normal assumptions in the physics distribution. The data can then be transformed by Linear, Logarithmic, Z-Score, or Power-Law scoring, where scoring simply assigns an intensity to the relative physics value of each candle segment based on some mathematical transformation. Z-scoring often renders adequate detection by scoring the segment value, such as volume or momentum, according to the mean and standard deviation of the data set in each window of the cycle. Logarithmic or power-law transformation with a gamma below 1 decreases the disparity between intensities so more less-important signals will show up, whereas the power-law transformation with gamma values above 1 increases the disparity between intensities, so less more-important signals will show up. These scores are then converted to color and transparency between the Min Score and the Max Score Cutoffs. The Auto-Normalization feature can automatically pick these cutoffs specific to each window based on the mean and standard deviation of the data set, or the user can manually set them. Physics was developed with novices in mind so that most users could calibrate their own settings by plotting the candle segment distributions directly on the chart and fiddling with the settings to see how different cutoffs capture different portions of the distribution and affect the relative color intensities differently. Security distributions are often skewed with fat-tails, known as kurtosis, where high-volume segments for example, have a higher-probabilities than expected for a normal distribution. These distribution are really log-normal, so that taking the logarithm leads to a standard bell-shaped distribution. Taking the Z-score of the Log-Normal distribution could make the most statistical sense, but color sensitivity is a discretionary preference.
Background Philosophy
This indicator was developed to study and trade the physics of motion in financial securities from a visually intuitive perspective. Newton’s laws of motion are loosely applied to financial motion:
“A body remains at rest, or in motion at a constant speed in a straight line, unless acted upon by a force”.
Financial securities remain at rest, or in motion at constant speed up or down, unless acted upon by the force of traders exchanging securities.
“When a body is acted upon by a force, the time rate of change of its momentum equals the force”.
Momentum is the product of mass and velocity, and force is the product of mass and acceleration. Traders render force on the security through the mass of their trading activity and the acceleration of price movement.
“If two bodies exert forces on each other, these forces have the same magnitude but opposite directions.”
Force arises from the interaction of traders, buyers and sellers. One body of motion, traders’ capitalization, exerts an equal and opposite force on another body of motion, the financial security. A securities movement arises at the expense of a buyer or seller’s capitalization.
Volume
The premise of this indicator assumes that volume, v, is an analogous means of measuring physical mass, m. This premise allows the application of the equations of motion to the movement of financial securities. We know from E=mc^2 that mass has energy. Energy can be used to create motion as kinetic energy. Taking a simple hypothetical example, the interaction of one short seller looking to cover lower and one buyer looking to sell higher exchange shares in a security at an agreed upon price to create volume or mass, and therefore, potential energy. Eventually the short seller will actively cover and buy the security from the previous buyer, moving the security higher, or the buyer will actively sell to the short seller, moving the security lower. The potential energy inherent in the initial consolidation or trading activity between buy and seller is now converted to kinetic energy on the subsequent trading activity that moves the securities price. The more potential energy that is created in the consolidation, the more kinetic energy there is to move price. This is why point and figure traders are said to give price targets based on the level of volatility or size of a consolidation range, or why Gann traders square price and time, as time is roughly proportional to mass and trading activity. The build-up of potential energy between short sellers and buyers in GME or TSLA led to their explosive moves beyond their standard fundamental valuations.
Position
Position, p, is simply the price or value of a financial security or market internal.
Time
Time, t, is another means of measuring mass to discover price behavior beyond the time snapshots that simple candle charts provide. We know from E=mc^2 that time is related to rest mass and energy given the speed of light, c, where time ≈ distance * sqrt(mass/E). This relation can also be derived from F=ma. The more mass there is, the longer it takes to compute the physics of a system. The more energy there is, the shorter it takes to compute the physics of a system. Similarly, more time is required to build a “resting” low-volatility trading consolidation with more mass. More energy added to that trading consolidation by competing buyers and sellers decreases the time it takes to build that same mass. Time is also related to price through velocity.
Velocity = (p(t1) – p(t0)) / p(t0)
Velocity, v, is the relative percent change of a securities price, p, over a period of time, t0 to t1. The period of time is between subsequent candles, and since time is constant between candles within the same timeframe, it is not used to calculate velocity or acceleration. Price moves faster with higher velocity, and slower with slower velocity, over the same fixed period of time. The product of velocity and mass gives momentum.
Momentum = mv
This indicator uses physics definition of momentum, not finance’s. In finance, momentum is defined as the amount of change in a securities price, either relative or absolute. This is definition is unfortunate, pun intended, since a one dollar move in a security from a thousand shares traded between a few traders has the exact same “momentum” as a one dollar move from millions of shares traded between hundreds of traders with everything else equal. If momentum is related to the energy of the move, momentum should consider both the level of activity in a price move, and the amount of that price move. If we equate mass to volume to account for the level of trading activity and use physics definition of momentum as the product of mass and velocity, this revised definition now gives a thousand-times more momentum to a one-dollar price move that has a thousand-times more volume behind it. If you want to use finance’s volume-less definition of momentum, use velocity in this indicator.
Acceleration = v(t1) – v(t0)
Acceleration, a, is the difference between velocities over some period of time, t0 to t1. Positive acceleration is necessary to increase a securities speed in the positive direction, while negative acceleration is necessary to decrease it. Acceleration is related to force by mass.
Force = ma
Force is required to change the speed of a securities valuation. Price movements with considerable force have considerably more impact on future direction. A change in direction requires force.
Kinetic Energy = 0.5mv^2
Kinetic energy is the energy that a financial security gains from the change in its velocity by force. The built-up of potential energy in trading consolidations can be converted to kinetic energy on a breakout from the consolidation.
Cycle Theory and Relativity
Just as the physics of motion is relative to a point of reference, so too should the physics of financial securities be relative to a point of reference. An object moving at a 100 mph towards another object moving in the same direction at 100 mph will not appear to be moving relative to each other, nor will they collide, but from an outsider observer, the objects are going 100 mph and will collide with significant impact if they run into a stationary object relative to the observer. Similarly, trading with a hundred thousand shares at the open when the average volume is a couple million may have a much smaller impact on the price compared to trading a hundred thousand shares pre-market when the average volume is ten thousand shares. The point of reference used in this indicator is the average statistics collected for a given Window Time Frame for every Cycle Time Frame. The physics values are normalized relative to these statistics.
Examples
The main chart of this publication shows the Force Candles for the SPY. An intense force candle is observed pre-market that implicates the directional overtone of the day. The assumption that direction should follow force arises from physical observation. If a large object is accelerating intensely in a particular direction, it may be fair to assume that the object continues its direction for the time being unless acted upon by another force.
The second example shows a similar Force Candle for the SPY that counters the assumption made in the first example and emphasizes the importance of both motion and context. While it’s fair to assume that a heavy highly accelerating object should continue its course, if that object runs into an obstacle, say a brick wall, it’s course may deviate. This example shows SPY running into the 50% retracement wall from the low of Mar 2020, a significant support level noted in literature. The example also conveys Gann’s idea of “lost motion”, where the SPY penetrated the 50% price but did not break through it. A brick wall is not one atom thick and price support is not one tick thick. An object can penetrate only one layer of a wall and not go through it.
The third example shows how Volume Candles can be used to identify scalping opportunities on the SPY and conveys why price behavior is as important as motion and context. It doesn’t take a brick wall to impede direction if you know that the person driving the car tends to forget to feed the cats before they leave. In the chart below, the SPY breaks down to a confluence of the 5-day SMA, 20-day SMA, and an important daily trendline (not shown) after the bullish bounce from the 50% retracement days earlier. High volume candles on the SMA signify stopping volume that reverse price direction. The character of the day changes. Bulls become more aggressive than bears with higher volume on upswings and resistance, whiles bears take on a defensive position with lower volume on downswings and support. High volume stopping candles are seen after rallies, and can tell you when to take profit, get out of a position, or go short. The character change can indicate that its relatively safe to re-enter bullish positions on many major supports, especially given the overarching bullish theme from the large reaction off the 50% retracement level.
The last example emphasizes the importance of relativity. The Volume Candles in the chart below are brightest pre-market even though the open has much higher volume since the pre-market activity is much higher compared to past pre-markets than the open is compared to past opens. Pre-market behavior is a good indicator for the character of the day. These bullish Volume Candles are some of the brightest seen since the bounce off the 50% retracement and indicates that bulls are making a relatively greater attempt to bring the SPY higher at the start of the day.
Infrequently Asked Questions
Where do I start?
The default settings are what I use to scalp the SPY throughout most of the extended trading day, on a one-minute chart using SPY volume. I also overlay another Candle set containing ES future volume on the SPY price structure by setting the Physics Source to ES1! and the Number of Overlays setting to 2 for each Candle stream in order to account for pre- and post-market trading activity better. Since the closing volume is exponential-like up until the end of the regular trading day, adding additional Candle streams with a tighter Window Time Frame (e.g., 2-5 minute) in the last 15 minutes of trading can be beneficial. The Hide feature can allow you to set certain intraday timeframes to hide one Candle set in order to show another Candle set during that time.
How crazy can you get with this indicator?
I hope you can answer this question better. One interesting use case is embedding the velocity of market volume onto an internal market structure. The PCTABOVEVWAP.US is a market statistic that indicates the percent of securities above their VWAP among US stocks and is helpful for determining short term trends in the US market. When securities are rising above their VWAP, the average long is up on the day and a rising PCTABOVEVWAP.US can be viewed as more bullish. When securities are falling below their VWAP, the average short is up on the day and a falling PCTABOVEVWAP.US can be viewed as more bearish. (UPVOL.US - DNVOL.US) / TVOL.US is a “spread” symbol, in TV parlance, that indicates the decimal percent difference between advancing volume and declining volume in the US market, showing the relative flow of volume between stocks that are up on the day, and stocks that are down on the day. Setting PCTABOVEVWAP.US in the Candle Source, (UPVOL.US - DNVOL.US) / TVOL.US in the Physics Source, and selecting the Physics to Velocity will embed the relative velocity of the spread symbol onto the PCTABOVEVWAP.US candles. This can be helpful in seeing short term trends in the US market that have an increasing amount of volume behind them compared to other trends. The chart below shows Volume Candles (top) and these Spread Candles (bottom). The first top at 9:30 and second top at 10:30, the high of the day, break down when the spread candles light up, showing a high velocity volume transfer from up stocks to down stocks.
How do I plot the indicator distribution and why should I even care?
The distribution is visually helpful in seeing how different normalization settings effect the distribution of candle segments. It is also helpful in seeing what physics intensities you want to ignore or show by segmenting part of the distribution within the Min and Max Cutoff values. The intensity of color is proportional to the physics value between the Min and Max Cutoff values, which correspond to the Min and Max Colors in your color scheme. Any physics value outside these Min and Max Cutoffs will be the same as the Min and Max Colors.
Select the Print Windows feature to show the window numbers according to the Cycle Time Frame and Window Time Frame settings. The window numbers are labeled at the start of each window and are candle width in size, so you may need to zoom into to see them. Selecting the Plot Window feature and input the window number of interest to shows the distribution of physics values for that particular window along with some statistics.
A log-normal volume distribution of segmented z-scores is shown below for 30-minute opening of the SPY. The Min and Max Cutoff at the top of the graph contain the part of the distribution whose intensities will be linearly color-coded between the Min and Max Colors of the color scheme. The part of the distribution below the Min Cutoff will be treated as lowest quality signals and set to the Min Color, while the few segments above the Max Cutoff will be treated as the highest quality signals and set to the Max Color.
What do I do if I don’t see anything?
Troubleshooting issues with this indicator can involve checking for error messages shown near the indicator name on the chart or using the Data Validation section to evaluate the statistics and normalization cutoffs. For example, if the Plot Window number is set to a window number that doesn’t exist, an error message will tell you and you won’t see any candles. You can use the Print Windows option to show windows that do exist for you current settings. The auto-normalization cutoff values may be inappropriate for your particular use case and literally cut the candles out of the chart. Try changing the chart time frame to see if they are appropriate for your cycle, sample and window time frames. If you get a “Timeframe passed to the request.security_lower_tf() function must be lower than the timeframe of the main chart” error, this means that the chart timeframe should be increased above the sample time frame. If you get a “Symbol resolve error”, ensure that you have correct symbol or spread in the Candle or Physics Source.
How do I see a relative physics values without cycles?
Set the Window Time Frame to be equal to the Cycle Time Frame. This will aggregate all the statistics into one bucket and show the physics values, such as volume, relative to all the past volumes that TV will allow.
How do I see candles without segmentation?
Segmentation can be very helpful in one context or annoying in another. Segmentation can be removed by setting the candle resolution value to 1.
Notes
I have yet to find a trading platform that consistently provides accurate real-time volume and pricing information, lacking adequate end-user data validation or quality control. I can provide plenty of examples of real-time volume counts or prices provided by TradingView and other platforms that were significantly off from what they should have been when comparing against the exchanges own data, and later retroactively corrected or not corrected at all. Since no indicator can work accurately with inaccurate data, please use at your own discretion.
The first version is a beta version. Debugging and validating code in Pine script is difficult without proper unit testing. Please report any bugs with enough information to reproduce them and indicate why they are important. I also encourage you to export the data from TradingView and verify the calculations for your particular use case.
The indicator works on real-time updates that occur at a higher frequency than the candle time frame, which TV incorrectly refers to as ticks. They use this terminology inaccurately as updates are really aggregated tick data that can take place at different prices and may not accurately reflect the real tick price action. Consequently, this inaccuracy also impacts the real-time segmentation accuracy to some degree. TV does not provide a means of retaining “tick” information, so the higher granularity of information seen real-time will be lost on a disconnect.
TV does not provide time and sales information. The volume and price information collected using the Sample Time Frame is intraday, which provides only part of the picture. Intraday volume is generally 50 to 80% of the end of day volume. Consequently, the daily+ OHLC prices are intraday, and may differ significantly from exchanged settled OHLC prices.
The Cycle and Window Time Frames refer to calendar days and time, not trading days or time. For example, the first window week of a monthly cycle is the first seven days of the month, not the first Monday through Friday of trading for the month.
Chart Time Frames that are higher than the Window Time Frames average the normalized physics for price action that occurred within a given Candle segment. It does not average price action that did not occur.
One of the main performance bottleneck in TradingView’s Pine Script is client-side drawing and plotting. The performance of this indicator can be increased by lowering the resolution (the number of sub-candles this indicator plots), getting a faster computer, or increasing the performance of your computer like plugging your laptop in and eliminating unnecessary processes.
The statistical integrity of this indicator relies on the number of samples collected per sample window in a given cycle. Higher sample counts can be obtained by increasing the chart time frame or upgrading the TradingView plan for a higher bar count. While increasing the chart time frame doesn’t increase the visual number of bars plotted on the chart, it does increase the number of bars that can be pulled at a lower time frame, up to 100,000.
Due to a limitation in Pine Scripts request_lower_tf() function, using a spread symbol will only work for regular trading hours, not extended trading hours.
Ideally, velocity or momentum should be calculated between candle closes. To eliminate the need to deal with price gaps that would lead to an incorrect statistical distributions, momentum is calculated between candle open and closes as a percent change of the price or value, which should not be an issue for most liquid securities.
Williams Vix Fix OHLC candles plot indicator (Tartigradia)OHLC candles plot of the Williams VixFix indicator, which allows to draw trend lines.
Williams VixFix is a realized volatility indicator developed by Larry Williams, and can help in finding market bottoms.
Indeed, as Williams describe in his paper, markets tend to find the lowest prices during times of highest volatility, which usually accompany times of highest fear. The VixFix is calculated as how much the current low price statistically deviates from the maximum within a given look-back period.
The Williams VixFix indicator is usually presented as a curve or histogram. The novelty of this indicator is to present the data as a OHLC candles plot: whereas the original Williams VixFix calculation only involves the close value, we here use the open, high and low values as well. This led to some mathematical challenges because some of these calculations led to absurd values, so workarounds had to be found, but in the end I think the result was worth it, it reproduces the VIX chart quite well.
A great additional value of the OHLC chart is that it shows not just the close value, but all the values during the session: open, high and low in addition to close. This allows to draw trend lines and can provide additional information on momentum and sentiment. In addition, other indicators can be used on it, as if it was a price chart, such as RSI indicators (see RSI+ (alt) indicator for example).
For more information on the Vix Fix, which is a strategy published under public domain:
The VIX Fix, Larry Williams, Active Trader magazine, December 2007, web.archive.org
Fixing the VIX: An Indicator to Beat Fear, Amber Hestla-Barnhart, Journal of Technical Analysis, March 13, 2015, ssrn.com
Replicating the CBOE VIX using a synthetic volatility index trading algorithm, Dayne Cary and Gary van Vuuren, Cogent Economics & Finance, Volume 7, 2019, Issue 1, doi.org
This indicator includes only the Williams VixFix as an OHLC candles or bars plot, and price / vixfix candles plot, as well as the typical vixfix histogram. Indeed, it is much more practical for unbounded range indicators to be plotted in their own separate panel, hence why this indicator is released separately, so that it can work and be scaled adequately out of the box.
Note that the there are however no bottom buy signals. For a more complete indicator, which also includes the OHLC candles plots present here, but also bottom signals and Inverse VixFix (top signals), see:
Set Index symbol to SPX, and index_current = false, and timeframe Weekly, to reproduce the original VIX as close as possible by the VIXFIX (use the Add Symbol option, because you want to plot CBOE:VIX on the same timeframe as the current chart, which may include extended session / weekends). With the Weekly timeframe, off days / extended session days should not change much, but with lower timeframes this is important, because nights and weekends can change how the graph appears and seemingly make them different because of timing misalignment when in reality they are not when properly aligned.
Convert ETF to Futures/IndexThis indicator is used to automatically map an ETF's VWAP and 10 levels above and below the strike of your choice, to the futures or index instrument currently being viewed/traded. This works very well when using both SPY to ES/MES/SPX or QQQ to NQ/MNQ/NDX to plot the ETF strikes and can lead to some incredible trades, especially when trading level to level. Since SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA have the same price action as their futures iteration, there seems to be a direct correlation between their levels and VWAP . This indicator is made to easily map these key levels to the appropriate futures instrument. If you have a way to measure GEX centered around a certain level, I recommend color coding the lines to help indicate whether the level will have strong positive or negative gamma hedging associated with it.
Seasonality - Session Performance - Morning Afternoon EveningUse this indicator on Intraday Timeframe. Higher the timeframe, more the data
This script calculates the performance of an instrument for different sessions.
Session inputs can be updated to study performance of
- Morning vs Afternoon vs Evening
- Pre-Market vs Market vs Post-Market (provided the data feed supports pre and post market)
- Overnight vs Intraday
Three session inputs are provided to tweak the session range
Performance is calculated as session close / session open - 1
Session timeframes can be set for various countries. Make sure the session timeframe aligns with the Candle open/close for the timeframe you choose. Some examples below
US Markets: 0930-1130 1130-1430 1430-1630 Timeframe 1 hour
India Markets: 0915-1030 1030-1415 1415-15:30 Timeframe 75min
Seasonality Overnight Gaps - Tabular Form Use this indicator on Daily Timeframe
This script calculates the overnight gaps above a specific threshold (that can be set through input parameters) and displays the data in a tabular form with Year in the rows and the day of the week in the columns.
Also a summary row is displayed at the bottom for day of the week.
Detailed Gap info is displayed as tooltip for the cell data
Gap - Open should be outside the previous day's Open and Close
Gap % - open/prev. close - 1 if Gap is there
ILM Overnight vs Intraday Performance - Tabular FormUse this indicator on Daily Timeframe
This script compares Overnight vs Intraday Performance based on the Day of the Week (DOW) - Sun - Sat of index/stock/currency/commodity symbols.
ON column indicates Overnight performance = open/close -1
ID column indicates Intraday performance = close-open/1
The calculations are detailed in the tooltips of the individual table cells.
Seasonality DOW - Day Of the Week - Tabular FormUse this indicator on Daily Timeframe
This indicator displays the seasonality data for any instrument (index/stock/ futures /currency) in a tabular data by day of the week - DOW ( Sun - Mon - Tue - Wed - Thu - Fri - Sat ).
User can change the start of the year for analysis from the inputs.
Year is represented in rows and Day of the week (DOW) is represented in cols.
This indicator uses Daily Data feed to calculate the % change
Summary data for DOW displayed as the last row
Willspread Chart + POIV & ADVolumen TrendColor sπThe Indicator is a combination of different types of measurements to the Price Action.
1. Spread: The Spread is set to measure your Symbol to another chosen Market like Dollar as Contra . But you can switch also between different markets.
2. Accumulation/Distribution with True Range of High or Low including OpenInterest. This only works with Futures .
--Energies, Metals, Bonds, Softs, Currencies, Livestock, live cattle , feeder cattle, lean hogs , index--
Open Interest for:
ZW, ZC, ZS, ZM, ZL, ZO, ZR, CL, RB, HO, NG, GC, SI, HG, PA, PL, ZN, ZB, ZT, ZF, CC, CT, KC, SB, JO, LB, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDMXN, NZDUSD, USDRUB, DX, BTC, ETH, LE, GF, HE, NQ, NDX, ES, SPX, RTY, VIX,
3. Accumulation/Distribution with True Range of High or Low including Volume .
4. The color shows if the Market has positive or negative (Willspread, Volume or Open Interest)
5. The Indicator also shows Divergences to Price and Willspread Movements.
If you want to have more information just give me a message.
Bearish Market Indicator V2Definition
Have you ever wonder whether if the stock/index/market is "bearish" ? A Bearish Market Indicator (B.M.I) is not a new concept, the definition is simply 20% lower from the recent (term: short-term, recent: usually within a year, a.k.a 1 year) highs (closing price with in the recent period or within in a year or simply a 52-Week High). It is called “bearish” by definition when the closing price is below 20% from the highest price within the year (52-Week high: Green Line). To visualize the “20%” below the recent highs, there is a plot (line: light yellow color in the middle) called a Bearish Market By Definition Value. For example, the SPX 500 has been in a bearish market which is why there is a purple color highlight over the 52-Week High (green line) since September 21, 2022 because the closing price is below the Bearish Market By Definition Value (light yellow color) or “20% below the recent highs”. Finally, there is a red line under in the graph and it is the lowest price within a year. So when you hear, “this ticker is at a 52-Week Low”, you know what it means.
Line Summary:
Green Color Line = 52-Week High
Yellow Color Line = 20% away from the 52-Week High or Bearish Market By Definition Value
Red Color Line = 52-Week Low
Color Summary:
Red Color = Bad
Saturated Red Color = Very Bad
Purple Color = Bearish (It may look pink: red + purple)
White Color = Less Bad (That’s because there is no certainty only probability)
Green Color = Not too Bad (That’s because there is no certainty only probability)
Now to more complicated Metrics
>> If you do not like the technical indicators, go to the indicator settings, uncheck the tables. Otherwise, please continue reading. <<
Pre-requisites
+ Understand that the indicators are lagging indicators.
+ Using it under “D” or “Day” interval
+ Already Understand: Moving Averages, Stochastic-RSI, RSI, Super Trend and MACD.
+ Please be aware that this might not be compatible with traders!
Indicators
This B.M.I is fused (comprised, combined) with multiple indicators:
- Moving Averages
I would not rely just on the Moving Averages (MA) since it is a lagging indicator. The values are derived by finding the differences with respect to the MAs (between the closing price and with the respect MA).
- Stochastic-RSI
Stochastic and RSI combo with RSI-Color coating. The first value is the rsi-stochastic-k followed by the rsi-stochastic-d both are compartmentalized with “|”.
Parameter:
Numbers > 80 Not Good
Numbers < 20 Is it time? (You can manually verify the lines (k, d) or the values from them)
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The first value is the rsi followed by the rsi-ma both are compartmentalized with “|”. It is also coated with RSI-color.
Parameter:
Numbers > 70 Overbought | Color Red
If the RSI > RSI’s MA = Green
If the RSI < RSI’s MA = Red
Numbers < 30 Oversold | Color Red
- Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The first value is the MACD-line followed by the signal-line both are compartmentalized with “|”.
Macd-line > signal line = green
Macd-line < signal line = red
- Supertrend (please look up from the documentation; i can not embed the link)
Think of this way, you’re riding a wave. If the wave is climbing, expect the price to follow.
Direction < 0 = Green
Direction > 0 = Red
- Other Trend similar to supertrend
This is similar to the Super Trend according the some. Imagine you’re drawing a trend line manually within 6 months.
Within the period, the line gets smoothed over and over til the n=9.
> If the closing is less than the 9th value, it implies the trend is slowing down.
Usage
Adjustments
+ Since there are different holidays from different countries, you can change the BMI-Period from the indicator settings “BMI-4khansolo”.
+ You can hide Technical Indicator Tables, it is also under the settings (see above).
> This will show red over the 52-Week high if it tests for positive .
Purpose
Do you like eating the same food over and over? No! I love different food! I also love a variety of indicators. Especially, I love having MULTIPLE indicators presented in one canvas at the same time (personalized).
After spending a lot of time, I want to share my “FOOD” which is made of different ingredients (indicators) with someone who appreciates food! This Makes me a chef isn't it? Yes! Chef!
Questions?
If you have questions or spotted errors, please comment them below so that I can improve.
Sources
All the materials (i.e., functions like ta.rsi, etc...) used in here are available in the platform.
All the references or sources materials are commented with the code since the I am not allowed to put them here.
Dealar VIX Implied Range + Retracement LevelsThis Implied range Is derived by the VIX(1 sd annual +/- Implied move.)
This Indicator plots the daily Implied range, A lot of quantitative trading firms/ MM firms hedge their delta & gamma exposure around the Implied range(prop calc). I have added retracement levels as well, so you have more pivot levels.
Enjoy!
Balance of Power Heikin Ashi Investing Strategy Balance of Power Heikin Ashi Investing Strategy
This is a swing strategy designed for investment help.
Its made around the Balace of Power indicator, but has been adapted on using the Monthly Heikin Ashi candle from the SPY asset in order to be used with correlation for US Stock/ETF/Index Markets.
The BOP acts as an oscilallator showing the power of a bull trend when its positive and a bearish trend when its in negative. At the same time we can spot reversals, based on the percentiles ( 99/1)
The rules for entry :
For long : The 99 percentile is ascending, and we are either in a positive value (>0), or we crossed the bottom place ( -0.35)
For short : the 99 and 1 percentile are descending, and we are either in a negative value(<0), or we crossed down the top place ( 0.6)
If you have any questions please let me know !
KERPD Noise Filter - Kaufman Efficiency Ratio and Price DensityThis indicator combines Kaufman Efficiency Ratio (KER) and Price Density theories to create a unique market noise filter that is 'right on time' compared to using KER or Price Density alone. All data is normalized and merged into a single output. Additionally, this indicator provides the ability to consider background noise and background noise buoyancy to allow dynamic observation of noise level and asset specific calibration of the indicator (if desired).
The basic theory surrounding usage is that: higher values = lower noise, while lower values = higher noise in market.
Notes: NON-DIRECTIONAL Kaufman Efficiency Ratio used. Threshold period of 30 to 40 applies to Kaufman Efficiency Ratio systems if standard length of 20 is applied; maintained despite incorporation of Price Density normalized data.
TRADING USES:
-Trend strategies, mean reversion/reversal/contrarian strategies, and identification/avoidance of ranging market conditions.
-Trend strategy where KERPD is above a certain value; generally a trend is forming/continuing as noise levels fall in the market.
-Mean reversion/reversal/contrarian strategies when KERPD exits a trending condition and falls below a certain value (additional signal confluence confirming for a strong reversal in price required); generally a reversal is forming as noise levels increase in the market.
-A filter to screen out ranging/choppy conditions where breakouts are frequently fake-outs and or price fails to move significantly; noise level is high, in addition to the background buoyancy level.
-In an adaptive trading systems to assist in determining whether to apply a trend following algorithm or a mean reversion algorithm.
THEORY / THOUGHT SPACE:
The market is a jungle. When apex predators are present it often goes quiet (institutions moving price), when absent the jungle is loud.
There is always background noise that scales with the anticipation of the silence, which has features of buoyancy that act to calibrate the beginning of the silence and return to background noise conditions.
Trend traders hunt in low noise conditions. Reversion traders hunt in the onset of low noise into static conditions. Ranges can be avoided during high noise and buoyant background noise conditions.
Distance between the noise line and background noise can help inform decision making.
CALIBRATION:
- Set the Noise Threshold % color change line so that the color cut off is where your trend/reversion should begin.
- Set the Background Noise Buoyancy Calibration Decimal % to match the beginning/end of the color change Noise Threshold % line. Match the Background Noise Baseline Decimal %' to the number set for buoyancy.
- Additionally, create your own custom settings; 33/34 and 50 length also provides interesting results.
- A color change tape option can be enabled by un-commenting the lines at the bottom of this script.
Market Usage:
Stock, Crypto, Forex, and Others
Excellent for: NDQ, J225, US30, SPX
Market Conditions:
Trend, Reversal, Ranging
Stock Gaps SPY Correlation StrategyThis is daytrade stock strategy, designed to take the best out of the daily gaps that are forming between the close of previous day and opening of present day.
At the same time its logic has been adapted for SPY chart, in order to use correlation with the other stocks/assets/ etf which are linked with SP500 movement.
Lastly it has been added 2 new confirmation logics, based on the USI: advance/decline chart and percentage above vwap among all US stocks.
The rules for entry are simple :
We are at the opening daily candle, we have a long/short gap based on where the opening is happening and at the same time we are checking to see that the current different between the current difference between low and previous high (or viceversa) is higher than an established parameter(minimal deviation )
For exit, we exit based on time/clock parameter, in this case by default I selected 1h and half before close of the US session.
For testing purposes I have used 10% of the available capital, with a 0.0035$ comission per each share bought ( IBKR comissions)
If there are any questions, please let me know either here or in private !
[GTH] Relative Strength, SectorsDisplays the Relative Strength (RS) of a symbol in relation to some common sector ETFs, SPX and NDX (select from drop-down list). This is done by dividing the symbol's price by the chosen sector ETF's price.
You can also select a symbol of your choice to compare against.
Interpretation:
RS line ascending: symbol performs stronger than the sector ETF.
RS line decending: symbol performs weaker than the sector ETF.
In case of error reports: please be specfic. Thanks.
