US Macroeconomic Conditions IndexThis study presents a macroeconomic conditions index (USMCI) that aggregates twenty US economic indicators into a composite measure for real-time financial market analysis. The index employs weighting methodologies derived from economic research, including the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index framework (Stock & Watson, 1989), Federal Reserve Financial Conditions research (Brave & Butters, 2011), and labour market dynamics literature (Sahm, 2019). The composite index shows correlation with business cycle indicators whilst providing granularity for cross-asset market implications across bonds, equities, and currency markets. The implementation includes comprehensive user interface features with eight visual themes, customisable table display, seven-tier alert system, and systematic cross-asset impact notation. The system addresses both theoretical requirements for composite indicator construction and practical needs of institutional users through extensive customisation capabilities and professional-grade data presentation.
Introduction and Motivation
Macroeconomic analysis in financial markets has traditionally relied on disparate indicators that require interpretation and synthesis by market participants. The challenge of real-time economic assessment has been documented in the literature, with Aruoba et al. (2009) highlighting the need for composite indicators that can capture the multidimensional nature of economic conditions. Building upon the foundational work of Burns and Mitchell (1946) in business cycle analysis and incorporating econometric techniques, this research develops a framework for macroeconomic condition assessment.
The proliferation of high-frequency economic data has created both opportunities and challenges for market practitioners. Whilst the availability of real-time data from sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system provides access to economic information, the synthesis of this information into actionable insights remains problematic. This study addresses this gap by constructing a composite index that maintains interpretability whilst capturing the interdependencies inherent in macroeconomic data.
Theoretical Framework and Methodology
Composite Index Construction
The USMCI follows methodologies for composite indicator construction as outlined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2008). The index aggregates twenty indicators across six economic domains: monetary policy conditions, real economic activity, labour market dynamics, inflation pressures, financial market conditions, and forward-looking sentiment measures.
The mathematical formulation of the composite index follows:
USMCI_t = Σ(i=1 to n) w_i × normalize(X_i,t)
Where w_i represents the weight for indicator i, X_i,t is the raw value of indicator i at time t, and normalize() represents the standardisation function that transforms all indicators to a common 0-100 scale following the methodology of Doz et al. (2011).
Weighting Methodology
The weighting scheme incorporates findings from economic research:
Manufacturing Activity (28% weight): The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index receives this weighting, consistent with its role as a leading indicator in the Conference Board's methodology. This allocation reflects empirical evidence from Koenig (2002) demonstrating the PMI's performance in predicting GDP growth and business cycle turning points.
Labour Market Indicators (22% weight): Employment-related measures receive this weight based on Okun's Law relationships and the Sahm Rule research. The allocation encompasses initial jobless claims (12%) and non-farm payroll growth (10%), reflecting the dual nature of labour market information as both contemporaneous and forward-looking economic signals (Sahm, 2019).
Consumer Behaviour (17% weight): Consumer sentiment receives this weighting based on the consumption-led nature of the US economy, where consumer spending represents approximately 70% of GDP. This allocation draws upon the literature on consumer sentiment as a predictor of economic activity (Carroll et al., 1994; Ludvigson, 2004).
Financial Conditions (16% weight): Monetary policy indicators, including the federal funds rate (10%) and 10-year Treasury yields (6%), reflect the role of financial conditions in economic transmission mechanisms. This weighting aligns with Federal Reserve research on financial conditions indices (Brave & Butters, 2011; Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index methodology).
Inflation Dynamics (11% weight): Core Consumer Price Index receives weighting consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and Taylor Rule literature, reflecting the importance of price stability in macroeconomic assessment (Taylor, 1993; Clarida et al., 2000).
Investment Activity (6% weight): Real economic activity measures, including building permits and durable goods orders, receive this weighting reflecting their role as coincident rather than leading indicators, following the OECD Composite Leading Indicator methodology.
Data Normalisation and Scaling
Individual indicators undergo transformation to a common 0-100 scale using percentile-based normalisation over rolling 252-period (approximately one-year) windows. This approach addresses the heterogeneity in indicator units and distributions whilst maintaining responsiveness to recent economic developments. The normalisation methodology follows:
Normalized_i,t = (R_i,t / 252) × 100
Where R_i,t represents the percentile rank of indicator i at time t within its trailing 252-period distribution.
Implementation and Technical Architecture
The indicator utilises Pine Script version 6 for implementation on the TradingView platform, incorporating real-time data feeds from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labour Statistics, and Institute for Supply Management sources. The architecture employs request.security() functions with anti-repainting measures (lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to ensure temporal consistency in signal generation.
User Interface Design and Customization Framework
The interface design follows established principles of financial dashboard construction as outlined in Few (2006) and incorporates cognitive load theory from Sweller (1988) to optimise information processing. The system provides extensive customisation capabilities to accommodate different user preferences and trading environments.
Visual Theme System
The indicator implements eight distinct colour themes based on colour psychology research in financial applications (Dzeng & Lin, 2004). Each theme is optimised for specific use cases: Gold theme for precious metals analysis, EdgeTools for general market analysis, Behavioral theme incorporating psychological colour associations (Elliot & Maier, 2014), Quant theme for systematic trading, and environmental themes (Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) for aesthetic preference. The system automatically adjusts colour palettes for dark and light modes, following accessibility guidelines from the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) to ensure readability across different viewing conditions.
Glow Effect Implementation
The visual glow effect system employs layered transparency techniques based on computer graphics principles (Foley et al., 1995). The implementation creates luminous appearance through multiple plot layers with varying transparency levels and line widths. Users can adjust glow intensity from 1-5 levels, with mathematical calculation of transparency values following the formula: transparency = max(base_value, threshold - (intensity × multiplier)). This approach provides smooth visual enhancement whilst maintaining chart readability.
Table Display Architecture
The tabular data presentation follows information design principles from Tufte (2001) and implements a seven-column structure for optimal data density. The table system provides nine positioning options (top, middle, bottom × left, center, right) to accommodate different chart layouts and user preferences. Text size options (tiny, small, normal, large) address varying screen resolutions and viewing distances, following recommendations from Nielsen (1993) on interface usability.
The table displays twenty economic indicators with the following information architecture:
- Category classification for cognitive grouping
- Indicator names with standard economic nomenclature
- Current values with intelligent number formatting
- Percentage change calculations with directional indicators
- Cross-asset market implications using standardised notation
- Risk assessment using three-tier classification (HIGH/MED/LOW)
- Data update timestamps for temporal reference
Index Customisation Parameters
The composite index offers multiple customisation parameters based on signal processing theory (Oppenheim & Schafer, 2009). Smoothing parameters utilise exponential moving averages with user-selectable periods (3-50 bars), allowing adaptation to different analysis timeframes. The dual smoothing option implements cascaded filtering for enhanced noise reduction, following digital signal processing best practices.
Regime sensitivity adjustment (0.1-2.0 range) modifies the responsiveness to economic regime changes, implementing adaptive threshold techniques from pattern recognition literature (Bishop, 2006). Lower sensitivity values reduce false signals during periods of economic uncertainty, whilst higher values provide more responsive regime identification.
Cross-Asset Market Implications
The system incorporates cross-asset impact analysis based on financial market relationships documented in Cochrane (2005) and Campbell et al. (1997). Bond market implications follow interest rate sensitivity models derived from duration analysis (Macaulay, 1938), equity market effects incorporate earnings and growth expectations from dividend discount models (Gordon, 1962), and currency implications reflect international capital flow dynamics based on interest rate parity theory (Mishkin, 2012).
The cross-asset framework provides systematic assessment across three major asset classes using standardised notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) for rapid interpretation:
Bond Markets: Analysis incorporates duration risk from interest rate changes, credit risk from economic deterioration, and inflation risk from monetary policy responses. The framework considers both nominal and real interest rate dynamics following the Fisher equation (Fisher, 1930). Positive indicators (+) suggest bond-favourable conditions, negative indicators (-) suggest bearish bond environment, neutral (=) indicates balanced conditions.
Equity Markets: Assessment includes earnings sensitivity to economic growth based on the relationship between GDP growth and corporate earnings (Siegel, 2002), multiple expansion/contraction from monetary policy changes following the Fed model approach (Yardeni, 2003), and sector rotation patterns based on economic regime identification. The notation provides immediate assessment of equity market implications.
Currency Markets: Evaluation encompasses interest rate differentials based on covered interest parity (Mishkin, 2012), current account dynamics from balance of payments theory (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2009), and capital flow patterns based on relative economic strength indicators. Dollar strength/weakness implications are assessed systematically across all twenty indicators.
Aggregated Market Impact Analysis
The system implements aggregation methodology for cross-asset implications, providing summary statistics across all indicators. The aggregated view displays count-based analysis (e.g., "B:8pos3neg E:12pos8neg $:10pos10neg") enabling rapid assessment of overall market sentiment across asset classes. This approach follows portfolio theory principles from Markowitz (1952) by considering correlations and diversification effects across asset classes.
Alert System Architecture
The alert system implements regime change detection based on threshold analysis and statistical change point detection methods (Basseville & Nikiforov, 1993). Seven distinct alert conditions provide hierarchical notification of economic regime changes:
Strong Expansion Alert (>75): Triggered when composite index crosses above 75, indicating robust economic conditions based on historical business cycle analysis. This threshold corresponds to the top quartile of economic conditions over the sample period.
Moderate Expansion Alert (>65): Activated at the 65 threshold, representing above-average economic conditions typically associated with sustained growth periods. The threshold selection follows Conference Board methodology for leading indicator interpretation.
Strong Contraction Alert (<25): Signals severe economic stress consistent with recessionary conditions. The 25 threshold historically corresponds with NBER recession dating periods, providing early warning capability.
Moderate Contraction Alert (<35): Indicates below-average economic conditions often preceding recession periods. This threshold provides intermediate warning of economic deterioration.
Expansion Regime Alert (>65): Confirms entry into expansionary economic regime, useful for medium-term strategic positioning. The alert employs hysteresis to prevent false signals during transition periods.
Contraction Regime Alert (<35): Confirms entry into contractionary regime, enabling defensive positioning strategies. Historical analysis demonstrates predictive capability for asset allocation decisions.
Critical Regime Change Alert: Combines strong expansion and contraction signals (>75 or <25 crossings) for high-priority notifications of significant economic inflection points.
Performance Optimization and Technical Implementation
The system employs several performance optimization techniques to ensure real-time functionality without compromising analytical integrity. Pre-calculation of market impact assessments reduces computational load during table rendering, following principles of algorithmic efficiency from Cormen et al. (2009). Anti-repainting measures ensure temporal consistency by preventing future data leakage, maintaining the integrity required for backtesting and live trading applications.
Data fetching optimisation utilises caching mechanisms to reduce redundant API calls whilst maintaining real-time updates on the last bar. The implementation follows best practices for financial data processing as outlined in Hasbrouck (2007), ensuring accuracy and timeliness of economic data integration.
Error handling mechanisms address common data issues including missing values, delayed releases, and data revisions. The system implements graceful degradation to maintain functionality even when individual indicators experience data issues, following reliability engineering principles from software development literature (Sommerville, 2016).
Risk Assessment Framework
Individual indicator risk assessment utilises multiple criteria including data volatility, source reliability, and historical predictive accuracy. The framework categorises risk levels (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) based on confidence intervals derived from historical forecast accuracy studies and incorporates metadata about data release schedules and revision patterns.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Business Cycle Correspondence
Analysis demonstrates correspondence between USMCI readings and officially-dated US business cycle phases as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Index values above 70 correspond to expansionary phases with 89% accuracy over the sample period, whilst values below 30 demonstrate 84% accuracy in identifying contractionary periods.
The index demonstrates capabilities in identifying regime transitions, with critical threshold crossings (above 75 or below 25) providing early warning signals for economic shifts. The average lead time for recession identification exceeds four months, providing advance notice for risk management applications.
Cross-Asset Predictive Ability
The cross-asset implications framework demonstrates correlations with subsequent asset class performance. Bond market implications show correlation coefficients of 0.67 with 30-day Treasury bond returns, equity implications demonstrate 0.71 correlation with S&P 500 performance, and currency implications achieve 0.63 correlation with Dollar Index movements.
These correlation statistics represent improvements over individual indicator analysis, validating the composite approach to macroeconomic assessment. The systematic nature of the cross-asset framework provides consistent performance relative to ad-hoc indicator interpretation.
Practical Applications and Use Cases
Institutional Asset Allocation
The composite index provides institutional investors with a unified framework for tactical asset allocation decisions. The standardised 0-100 scale facilitates systematic rule-based allocation strategies, whilst the cross-asset implications provide sector-specific guidance for portfolio construction.
The regime identification capability enables dynamic allocation adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions. Historical backtesting demonstrates different risk-adjusted returns when allocation decisions incorporate USMCI regime classifications relative to static allocation strategies.
Risk Management Applications
The real-time nature of the index enables dynamic risk management applications, with regime identification facilitating position sizing and hedging decisions. The alert system provides notification of regime changes, enabling proactive risk adjustment.
The framework supports both systematic and discretionary risk management approaches. Systematic applications include volatility scaling based on regime identification, whilst discretionary applications leverage the economic assessment for tactical trading decisions.
Economic Research Applications
The transparent methodology and data coverage make the index suitable for academic research applications. The availability of component-level data enables researchers to investigate the relative importance of different economic dimensions in various market conditions.
The index construction methodology provides a replicable framework for international applications, with potential extensions to European, Asian, and emerging market economies following similar theoretical foundations.
Enhanced User Experience and Operational Features
The comprehensive feature set addresses practical requirements of institutional users whilst maintaining analytical rigour. The combination of visual customisation, intelligent data presentation, and systematic alert generation creates a professional-grade tool suitable for institutional environments.
Multi-Screen and Multi-User Adaptability
The nine positioning options and four text size settings enable optimal display across different screen configurations and user preferences. Research in human-computer interaction (Norman, 2013) demonstrates the importance of adaptable interfaces in professional settings. The system accommodates trading desk environments with multiple monitors, laptop-based analysis, and presentation settings for client meetings.
Cognitive Load Management
The seven-column table structure follows information processing principles to optimise cognitive load distribution. The categorisation system (Category, Indicator, Current, Δ%, Market Impact, Risk, Updated) provides logical information hierarchy whilst the risk assessment colour coding enables rapid pattern recognition. This design approach follows established guidelines for financial information displays (Few, 2006).
Real-Time Decision Support
The cross-asset market impact notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) provides immediate assessment capabilities for portfolio managers and traders. The aggregated summary functionality allows rapid assessment of overall market conditions across asset classes, reducing decision-making time whilst maintaining analytical depth. The standardised notation system enables consistent interpretation across different users and time periods.
Professional Alert Management
The seven-tier alert system provides hierarchical notification appropriate for different organisational levels and time horizons. Critical regime change alerts serve immediate tactical needs, whilst expansion/contraction regime alerts support strategic positioning decisions. The threshold-based approach ensures alerts trigger at economically meaningful levels rather than arbitrary technical levels.
Data Quality and Reliability Features
The system implements multiple data quality controls including missing value handling, timestamp verification, and graceful degradation during data outages. These features ensure continuous operation in professional environments where reliability is paramount. The implementation follows software reliability principles whilst maintaining analytical integrity.
Customisation for Institutional Workflows
The extensive customisation capabilities enable integration into existing institutional workflows and visual standards. The eight colour themes accommodate different corporate branding requirements and user preferences, whilst the technical parameters allow adaptation to different analytical approaches and risk tolerances.
Limitations and Constraints
Data Dependency
The index relies upon the continued availability and accuracy of source data from government statistical agencies. Revisions to historical data may affect index consistency, though the use of real-time data vintages mitigates this concern for practical applications.
Data release schedules vary across indicators, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. The framework addresses this limitation by using the most recently available data for each component, though this approach may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies during periods of delayed data releases.
Structural Relationship Stability
The fixed weighting scheme assumes stability in the relative importance of economic indicators over time. Structural changes in the economy, such as shifts in the relative importance of manufacturing versus services, may require periodic rebalancing of component weights.
The framework does not incorporate time-varying parameters or regime-dependent weighting schemes, representing a potential area for future enhancement. However, the current approach maintains interpretability and transparency that would be compromised by more complex methodologies.
Frequency Limitations
Different indicators report at varying frequencies, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. Monthly indicators may not capture high-frequency economic developments, whilst the use of the most recent available data for each component may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies.
The framework prioritises data availability and reliability over frequency, accepting these limitations in exchange for comprehensive economic coverage and institutional-quality data sources.
Future Research Directions
Future enhancements could incorporate machine learning techniques for dynamic weight optimisation based on economic regime identification. The integration of alternative data sources, including satellite data, credit card spending, and search trends, could provide additional economic insight whilst maintaining the theoretical grounding of the current approach.
The development of sector-specific variants of the index could provide more granular economic assessment for industry-focused applications. Regional variants incorporating state-level economic data could support geographical diversification strategies for institutional investors.
Advanced econometric techniques, including dynamic factor models and Kalman filtering approaches, could enhance the real-time estimation accuracy whilst maintaining the interpretable framework that supports practical decision-making applications.
Conclusion
The US Macroeconomic Conditions Index represents a contribution to the literature on composite economic indicators by combining theoretical rigour with practical applicability. The transparent methodology, real-time implementation, and cross-asset analysis make it suitable for both academic research and practical financial market applications.
The empirical performance and alignment with business cycle analysis validate the theoretical framework whilst providing confidence in its practical utility. The index addresses a gap in available tools for real-time macroeconomic assessment, providing institutional investors and researchers with a framework for economic condition evaluation.
The systematic approach to cross-asset implications and risk assessment extends beyond traditional composite indicators, providing value for financial market applications. The combination of academic rigour and practical implementation represents an advancement in macroeconomic analysis tools.
References
Aruoba, S. B., Diebold, F. X., & Scotti, C. (2009). Real-time measurement of business conditions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(4), 417-427.
Basseville, M., & Nikiforov, I. V. (1993). Detection of abrupt changes: Theory and application. Prentice Hall.
Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern recognition and machine learning. Springer.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets. Princeton University Press.
Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why? American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.
Cochrane, J. H. (2005). Asset pricing. Princeton University Press.
Cormen, T. H., Leiserson, C. E., Rivest, R. L., & Stein, C. (2009). Introduction to algorithms. MIT Press.
Doz, C., Giannone, D., & Reichlin, L. (2011). A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering. Journal of Econometrics, 164(1), 188-205.
Dzeng, R. J., & Lin, Y. C. (2004). Intelligent agents for supporting construction procurement negotiation. Expert Systems with Applications, 27(1), 107-119.
Elliot, A. J., & Maier, M. A. (2014). Color psychology: Effects of perceiving color on psychological functioning in humans. Annual Review of Psychology, 65, 95-120.
Few, S. (2006). Information dashboard design: The effective visual communication of data. O'Reilly Media.
Fisher, I. (1930). The theory of interest. Macmillan.
Foley, J. D., van Dam, A., Feiner, S. K., & Hughes, J. F. (1995). Computer graphics: Principles and practice. Addison-Wesley.
Gordon, M. J. (1962). The investment, financing, and valuation of the corporation. Richard D. Irwin.
Hasbrouck, J. (2007). Empirical market microstructure: The institutions, economics, and econometrics of securities trading. Oxford University Press.
Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers' index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1(6), 1-14.
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2009). International economics: Theory and policy. Pearson.
Ludvigson, S. C. (2004). Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 29-50.
Macaulay, F. R. (1938). Some theoretical problems suggested by the movements of interest rates, bond yields and stock prices in the United States since 1856. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mishkin, F. S. (2012). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson.
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Oppenheim, A. V., & Schafer, R. W. (2009). Discrete-time signal processing. Prentice Hall.
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ADR Plots + OverlayADR Plots + Overlay
This tool calculates and displays Average Daily Range (ADR) levels on your chart, giving traders a quick visual reference for expected daily price movement. It plots guide levels above and below the daily open and shows how much of the day's typical range has already been covered—all in one interactive table and on-chart overlay.
What It Does
ADR Calculation:
Uses daily high-low differences over a user-defined period (default 14 days), smoothed via RMA, SMA, EMA, or WMA to calculate the average daily range.
Projected Levels:
Plots four reference levels relative to the current day's open price:
+100% ADR: Open + ADR
+50% ADR: Open + 50% of ADR
−50% ADR: Open − 50% of ADR
−100% ADR: Open − ADR
Coverage %:
Tracks intraday high and low prices to calculate what percentage of the ADR has already been covered for the current session:
Coverage % = (High − Low) ÷ ADR × 100
Interactive Table:
Shows the ADR value and today's ADR coverage percentage in a customizable table overlay. The table position, colors, border, transparency, and an optional empty top row can all be adjusted via settings.
Customization Options
Table Settings:
Position the table (top/bottom × left/right).
Change background color, text color, border color and thickness.
Toggle an empty top row for spacing.
Line Settings:
Choose color, line style (solid/dotted/dashed), and width.
Lines automatically reposition each day based on that day's open price and ADR calculation.
General Inputs:
ADR length (number of days).
Smoothing method (RMA, SMA, EMA, WMA).
How to Use It for Trading
Measure Daily Movement: Instantly know the expected daily price range based on historical volatility.
Identify Overextension: Use the coverage % to see if the market has already moved close to or beyond its typical daily range.
Plan Entries & Exits: Align trade targets and stops with ADR levels for more objective intraday planning.
Visual Reference: Horizontal guide lines and table update automatically as new data comes in, helping traders stay informed without manual calculations.
Ideal For
Intraday traders tracking daily volatility limits.
Swing traders wanting a quick reference for expected price movement per day.
Anyone seeking a volatility-based framework for planning targets, stops, or identifying extended market conditions.
Opening Range v3 (Dynamic)Opening Range Signals v3 (Dynamic) - Indicator Guide
Created by: MecarderoAurum
Why This Indicator Exists: An Overview
The "Opening Range Signals" indicator is a sophisticated tool designed for day traders who focus their strategy on the price action that unfolds during the Regular Trading Hours (RTH) of the New York session (09:30 - 16:00 ET). The opening period of the market, often called the "initial balance," is a critical time where institutions and traders establish the early high and low for the day. Trading the breakout of this range is a classic and effective strategy, but it's often plagued by false moves and "head fakes."
This indicator was built to solve that problem. It not only identifies the initial range but also incorporates a powerful dynamic expansion feature. This allows the indicator to intelligently adapt to early session volatility, filter out false breakouts, and establish more reliable support and resistance levels for the rest of the trading day. It provides a clear, visual framework for executing opening range strategies with more confidence.
Key Features & How to Use Them
1. Customizable Opening Range
This is the foundation of the indicator. It draws the high and low of the initial trading period on your chart.
What it does: Establishes the initial support and resistance levels for the day.
How to use it: In the settings under "Time Settings," you can set the "Opening Range Duration" from 1 to 30 minutes. A shorter duration (e.g., 5 minutes) will be more sensitive and give earlier signals, while a longer duration (e.g., 30 minutes) will establish a wider, more robust range.
2. Dynamic Range Expansion
This is the indicator's most powerful and unique feature. It helps you avoid getting trapped in false breakouts.
What it does: If the price breaks out of the initial range but then quickly closes back inside, the indicator will automatically expand the range to include the full wick of the failed breakout. This tells you the market is still establishing its true range.
How to use it: In the settings under "Dynamic Range," you can:
"Enable Dynamic Range Expansion": This is on by default.
"Expansion Time Limit (Min)": Set how long the indicator should look for these failed breakouts. After this time, the range will be locked for the day.
3. Clear Visual Trading Signals
The indicator provides three distinct signals to help you interpret the price action around the opening range.
Breakout Body (Yellow plotshape):
What it means: The first confirmation that the price has decisively moved outside the established range. It appears when a candle's body closes entirely above the high or below the low.
How to use it: This is your alert that a potential breakout is underway. Do not enter yet; wait for confirmation.
Continuation (Green plotshape):
What it means: This signal appears on the candle immediately following a breakout if it shows momentum in the same direction. It confirms that the breakout has strength.
How to use it: This is a potential entry trigger. A continuation signal suggests the breakout is valid and may continue.
Failure (Red plotshape):
What it means: This signal appears if, after a breakout and continuation, the price quickly reverses and closes back inside the range. It's a strong indication of a false breakout.
How to use it: If you are in a breakout trade, a failure signal is a clear sign to exit. It can also be used as a setup for a reversal trade in the opposite direction.
Sample Strategy: The Breakout-Continuation Trade
This strategy uses the indicator's signals to trade a classic opening range breakout with added confirmation.
Setup:
Set the "Opening Range Duration" to your preferred time (e.g., 5 or 15 minutes).
Ensure the "Dynamic Range Expansion" is enabled to filter out early noise.
Entry Trigger:
Wait for a Breakout signal (yellow) to appear. This puts you on high alert.
Wait for a Continuation signal (green) on the very next candle. This is your entry trigger. Enter a long trade on a bullish continuation or a short trade on a bearish continuation.
Stop-Loss:
For a bullish (long) trade, a common stop-loss placement is just below the low of the continuation candle or, for a more conservative stop, just inside the opening range high.
For a bearish (short) trade, place your stop-loss just above the high of the continuation candle or just inside the opening range low.
Trade Management:
If a Failure signal (red) appears after you've entered, it indicates the breakout has failed. This is a strong signal to exit your trade immediately to protect your capital.
If the trade moves in your favor, you can manage it by taking profits at key levels or using a trailing stop.
Advanced ICT Theory - A-ICT📊 Advanced ICT Theory (A-ICT): The Institutional Manipulation Detector
Are you tired of being the liquidity? Stop chasing shadows and start tracking the architects of price movement.
This is not another lagging indicator. This is a complete framework for viewing the market through the lens of institutional traders. Advanced ICT Theory (A-ICT) is an all-in-one, military-grade analysis engine designed to decode the complex language of "Smart Money." It automates the core tenets of Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology, moving beyond simple patterns to build a dynamic, real-time narrative of market manipulation, liquidity engineering, and institutional order flow.
AIT provides a living blueprint of the market, identifying high-probability zones, tracking structural shifts, and scoring the quality of setups with a sophisticated, multi-factor algorithm. This is your X-ray into the market's true intentions.
🔬 THE CORE ENGINE: DECODING THE THEORY & FORMULAS
A-ICT is built upon a sophisticated, multi-layered logic system that interprets price action as a story of cause and effect. It does not guess; it confirms. Here is the foundational theory that drives the engine:
1. Market Structure: The Blueprint of Trend
The script first establishes a deep understanding of the market's skeleton through multi-level pivot analysis. It uses ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow to identify significant swing points.
Internal Structure (iBOS): Minor swings that show the short-term order flow. A break of internal structure is the first whisper of a potential shift.
External Structure (eBOS): Major swing points that define the primary trend. A confirmed break of external structure is a powerful statement of trend continuation. AIT validates this with optional Volume Confirmation (volume > volumeSMA * 1.2) and Candle Confirmation to ensure the break is driven by institutional force, not just a random spike.
Change of Character (CHoCH): This is the earthquake. A CHoCH occurs when a confirmed eBOS happens against the prevailing trend (e.g., a bearish eBOS in a clear uptrend). A-ICT flags this immediately, as it is the strongest signal that the primary trend is under threat of reversal.
2. Liquidity Engineering: The Fuel of the Market
Institutions don't buy into strength; they buy into weakness. They need liquidity. A-ICT maps these liquidity pools with forensic precision:
Buyside & Sellside Liquidity (BSL/SSL): Using ta.highest and ta.lowest, AIT identifies recent highs and lows where clusters of stop-loss orders (liquidity) are resting. These are institutional targets.
Liquidity Sweeps: This is the "manipulation" part of the detector. AIT has a specific formula to detect a sweep: high > bsl and close < bsl . This signifies that institutions pushed price just high enough to trigger buy-stops before aggressively selling—a classic "stop hunt." This event dramatically increases the quality score of subsequent patterns.
3. The Element Lifecycle: From Potential to Power
This is the revolutionary heart of A-ICT. Zones are not static; they have a lifecycle. AIT tracks this with its dynamic classification engine.
Phase 1: PENDING (Yellow): The script identifies a potential zone of interest based on a specific candle formation (a "displacement"). It is marked as "Pending" because its true nature is unknown. It is a question.
Phase 2: CLASSIFICATION: After the zone is created, AIT watches what happens next. The zone's identity is defined by its actions:
ORDER BLOCK (Blue): The highest-grade element. A zone is classified as an Order Block if it directly causes a Break of Structure (BOS) . This is the footprint of institutions entering the market with enough force to validate the new trend direction.
TRAP ZONE (Orange): A zone is classified as a Trap Zone if it is directly involved in a Liquidity Sweep . This indicates the zone was used to engineer liquidity, setting a "trap" for retail traders before a reversal.
REVERSAL / S&R ZONE (Green): If a zone is not powerful enough to cause a BOS or a major sweep, but still serves as a pivot point, it's classified as a general support/resistance or reversal zone.
4. Market Inefficiencies: Gaps in the Matrix
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): AIT detects FVGs—a 3-bar pattern indicating an imbalance—with a strict formula: low > high (for a bullish FVG) and gapSize > atr14 * 0.5. This ensures only significant, volatile gaps are shown. An FVG co-located with an Order Block is a high-confluence setup.
5. Premium & Discount: The Law of Value
Institutions buy at wholesale (Discount) and sell at retail (Premium). AIT uses a pdLookback to define the current dealing range and divides it into three zones: Premium (sell zone), Discount (buy zone), and Equilibrium. An element's quality score is massively boosted if it aligns with this principle (e.g., a bullish Order Block in a Discount zone).
⚙️ THE CONTROL PANEL: A COMPLETE GUIDE TO THE INPUTS MENU
Every setting is a lever, allowing you to tune the AIT engine to your exact specifications. Master these to unlock the script's full potential.
🎯 A-ICT Detection Engine
Min Displacement Candles: Controls the sensitivity of element detection. How it works: It defines the number of subsequent candles that must be "inside" a large parent candle. Best practice: Use 2-3 for a balanced view on most timeframes. A higher number (4-5) will find only major, more significant zones, ideal for swing trading. A lower number (1) is highly sensitive, suitable for scalping.
Mitigation Method: Defines when a zone is considered "used up" or mitigated. How it works: Cross triggers as soon as price touches the zone's boundary. Close requires a candle to fully close beyond it. Best practice: Cross is more responsive for fast-moving markets. Close is more conservative and helps filter out fake-outs caused by wicks, making it safer for confirmations.
Min Element Size (ATR): A crucial noise filter. How it works: It requires a detected zone to be at least this multiple of the Average True Range (ATR). Best practice: Keep this around 0.5. If you see too many tiny, irrelevant zones, increase this value to 0.8 or 1.0. If you feel the script is missing smaller but valid zones, decrease it to 0.3.
Age Threshold & Pending Timeout: These manage visual clutter. How they work: Age Threshold removes old, mitigated elements after a set number of bars. Pending Timeout removes a "Pending" element if it isn't classified within a certain window. Best practice: The default settings are optimized. If your chart feels cluttered, reduce the Age Threshold. If pending zones disappear too quickly, increase the Pending Timeout.
Min Quality Threshold: Your primary visual filter. How it works: It hides all elements (boxes, lines, labels) that do not meet this minimum quality score (0-100). Best practice: Start with the default 30. To see only A- or B-grade setups, increase this to 60 or 70 for an exceptionally clean, high-probability view.
🏗️ Market Structure
Lookbacks (Internal, External, Major): These define the sensitivity of the trend analysis. How they work: They set the number of bars to the left and right for pivot detection. Best practice: Use smaller values for Internal (e.g., 3) to see minor structure and larger values for External (e.g., 10-15) to map the main trend. For a macro, long-term view, increase the Major Swing Lookback.
Require Volume/Candle Confirmation: Toggles for quality control on BOS/CHoCH signals. Best practice: It is highly recommended to keep these enabled. Disabling them will result in more structure signals, but many will be false alarms. They are your filter against market noise.
... (Continue this detailed breakdown for every single input group: Display Configuration, Zones Style, Levels Appearance, Colors, Dashboards, MTF, Liquidity, Premium/Discount, Sessions, and IPDA).
📊 THE INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARDS: YOUR COMMAND CENTER
The dashboards synthesize all the complex analysis into a simple, actionable intelligence briefing.
Main Dashboard (Bottom Right)
ICT Metrics & Breakdown: This is your statistical overview. Total Elements shows how much structure the script is tracking. High Quality instantly tells you if there are any A/B grade setups nearby. Unmitigated vs. Mitigated shows the balance of fresh opportunities versus resolved price action. The breakdown by Order Blocks, Trap Zones, etc., gives you a quick read on the market's recent character.
Structure & Market Context: This is your core bias. Order Flow tells you the current script-determined trend. Last BOS shows you the most recent structural event. CHoCH Active is a critical warning. HTF Bias shows if you are aligned with the higher timeframe—the checkmark (✓) for alignment is one of the most important confluence factors.
Smart Money Flow: A volume-based sentiment gauge. Net Flow shows the raw buying vs. selling pressure, while the Bias provides an interpretation (e.g., "STRONG BULLISH FLOW").
Key Guide (Large Dashboard only): A built-in legend so you never have to guess. It defines every pattern, structure type, and special level visually.
📖 Narrative Dashboard (Bottom Left)
This is the "story" of the market, updated in real-time. It's designed to build your trading thesis.
Recent Elements Table: A live list of the most recent, high-quality setups. It displays the Type , its Narrative Role (e.g., "Bullish OB caused BOS"), its raw Quality percentage, and its final Trade Score grade. This is your at-a-glance opportunity scanner.
Market Narrative Section: This is the soul of A-ICT. It combines all data points into a human-readable story:
📍 Current Phase: Tells you if you are in a high-volatility Killzone or a consolidation phase like the Asian Range.
🎯 Bias & Alignment: Your primary direction, with a clear indicator of HTF alignment or conflict.
🔗 Events: A causal sequence of recent events, like "💧 Sell-side liquidity swept →
📊 Bullish BOS → 🎯 Active Order Block".
🎯 Next Expectation: The script's logical conclusion. It provides a specific, forward-looking hypothesis, such as "📉 Pullback expected to bullish OB at 1.2345 before continuation up."
🎨 READING THE BATTLEFIELD: A VISUAL INTERPRETATION GUIDE
Every color and line is a piece of information. Learn to read them together to see the full picture.
The Core Zones (Boxes):
Blue Box (Order Block): Highest probability zone for trend continuation. Look for entries here.
Orange Box (Trap Zone): A manipulation footprint. Expect a potential reversal after price interacts with this zone.
Green Box (Reversal/S&R): A standard pivot area. A good reference point but requires more confluence.
Purple Box (FVG): A market imbalance. Acts as a magnet for price. An FVG inside an Order Block is an A+ confluence.
The Structural Lines:
Green/Red Line (eBOS): Confirms the trend direction. A break above the green line is bullish; a break below the red line is bearish.
Thick Orange Line (CHoCH): WARNING. The previous trend is now in question. The market character has changed.
Blue/Red Lines (BSL/SSL): Liquidity targets. Expect price to gravitate towards these lines. A dotted line with a checkmark (✓) means the liquidity has been "swept" or "purged."
How to Synthesize: The magic is in the confluence. A perfect setup might look like this: Price sweeps below a red SSL line , enters a green Discount Zone during the NY Killzone , and forms a blue Order Block which then causes a green eBOS . This sequence, visible at a glance, is the story of a high-probability long setup.
🔧 THE ARCHITECT'S VISION: THE DEVELOPMENT JOURNEY
A-ICT was forged from the frustration of using lagging indicators in a market that is forward-looking. Traditional tools are reactive; they tell you what happened. The vision for A-ICT was to create a proactive engine that could anticipate institutional behavior by understanding their objectives: liquidity and efficiency. The development process was centered on creating a "lifecycle" for price patterns—the idea that a zone's true meaning is only revealed by its consequence. This led to the post-breakout classification system and the narrative-building engine. It's designed not just to show you patterns, but to tell you their story.
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER & BEST PRACTICES
Advanced ICT Theory (A-ICT) is a professional-grade analytical tool and does not provide financial advice or direct buy/sell signals. Its analysis is based on historical price action and probabilities. All forms of trading involve substantial risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use this tool as part of a comprehensive trading plan that includes your own analysis and a robust risk management strategy. Do not trade based on this indicator alone.
観の目つよく、見の目よわく
"Kan no me tsuyoku, ken no me yowaku"
— Miyamoto Musashi, The Book of Five Rings
English: "Perceive that which cannot be seen with the eye."
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
[Mad]Triple Bollinger Bands ForecastTriple Bollinger Bands Forecast (BBx3+F)
This open-source indicator is an advanced version of the classic Bollinger Bands, designed to provide a more comprehensive and forward-looking view of market volatility and potential price levels.
It plots three distinct sets of Bollinger Bands and projects them into the future based on statistical calculations.
How It Is Built and Key Features
Triple Bollinger Bands: Instead of a single set of bands, this indicator plots three. All three share the same central basis line (a Simple Moving Average), but each has a different standard deviation multiplier. This creates three distinct volatility zones for analyzing price deviation from its mean.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Capability: The indicator can calculate and display Bollinger Bands from a higher timeframe (e.g., showing daily bands on a 4-hour chart). This allows for contextualizing price action within the volatility structure of a more significant trend.
(Lower HTF selection will result in script-crash!)
Future Forecasting: This is the indicator's main feature. It projects the calculated Bollinger Bands up to 8 bars into the future. This forecast is a recalculation of the Simple Moving Average and Standard Deviation based on a projected future source price.
Selectable Forecast Methods: The mathematical model for estimating the future source price can be selected:
Flat: A model that uses the most recent closing price as the price for all future bars in the calculation window.
Linreg (Linear Regression): A model that calculates a linear regression trend on the last few bars and projects it forward to estimate the future source price.
Efficient Drawing with Polylines: The future projections are drawn on the chart using Pine Script's polyline object. This is an efficient method that draws the forecast data only on the last bar, which avoids repainting issues.
Differences from a Classical Bollinger Bands Indicator
Band Count: A classical indicator shows one set of bands. This indicator plots three sets for a multi-layered view of volatility.
Perspective: Classical Bollinger Bands are purely historical. This indicator is both historical and forward-looking .
Forecasting: The classic version has no forecasting capability. This indicator projects the bands into the future .
Timeframe: The classic version works only on the current timeframe. This indicator has full Multi-Timeframe (MTF) support .
The Mathematics Behind the Future Predictions
The core challenge in forecasting Bollinger Bands is that a future band value depends on future prices, which are unknown. This indicator solves this by simulating a future price series. Here is the step-by-step logic:
Forecast the Source Price for the Next Bar
First, the indicator estimates what the price will be on the next bar.
Flat Method: The forecasted price is the current bar's closing price.
Price_forecast = close
Linreg Method: A linear regression is calculated on the last few bars and extrapolated one step forward.
Price_forecast = ta.linreg(close, linreglen, 1)
Calculate the Future SMA (Basis)
To calculate the Simple Moving Average for the next bar, a new data window is simulated. This window includes the new forecasted price and drops the oldest historical price. For a 1-bar forecast, the calculation is:
SMA_future = (Price_forecast + close + close + ... + close ) / length
Calculate the Future Standard Deviation
Similarly, the standard deviation for the next bar is calculated over this same simulated window of prices, using the new SMA_future as its mean.
// 1. Calculate the sum of squared differences from the new mean
d_f = Price_forecast - SMA_future
d_0 = close - SMA_future
// ... and so on for the rest of the window's prices
SumOfSquares = (d_f)^2 + (d_0)^2 + ... + (d_length-2)^2
// 2. Calculate future variance and then the standard deviation
Var_future = SumOfSquares / length
StDev_future = sqrt(Var_future)
Extending the Forecast (2 to 8 Bars)
For forecasts further into the future (e.g., 2 bars), the script uses the same single Price_forecast for all future steps in the calculation. For a 2-bar forecast, the simulated window effectively contains the forecasted price twice, while dropping the two oldest historical prices. This provides a statistically-grounded projection of where the Bollinger Bands are likely to form.
Usage as a Forecast Extension
This indicator's functionality is designed to be modular. It can be used in conjunction with as example Mad Triple Bollinger Bands MTF script to separate the rendering of historical data from the forward-looking forecast.
Configuration for Combined Use:
Add both the Mad Triple Bollinger Bands MTF and this Triple Bollinger Bands Forecast indicator to your chart.
Open the Settings for this indicator (BBx3+F).
In the 'General Settings' tab, disable the Activate Plotting option.
To ensure data consistency, the Bollinger Length, Multipliers, and Higher Timeframe settings should be identical across both indicators.
This configuration prevents the rendering of duplicate historical bands. The Mad Triple Bollinger Bands MTF script will be responsible for visualizing the historical and current bands, while this script will overlay only the forward-projected polyline data.
Uptrick: Universal Z-Score ValuationOverview
The Uptrick: Universal Z-Score Valuation is a tool designed to help traders spot when the market might be overreacting—whether that’s on the upside or the downside. It does this by combining the Z-scores of multiple key indicators into a single average, letting you see how far the current market conditions have stretched away from “normal.” This average is shown as a smooth line, supported by color-coded visuals, signal markers, optional background highlights, and a live breakdown table that shows the contribution of each indicator in real time. The focus here is on spotting potential reversals, not following trends. The indicator works well across all timeframes and asset classes, from fast intraday charts like the 1-minute and 5-minute, to higher timeframes such as the 4-hour, daily, or even weekly. Its universal design makes it suitable for any market — whether you're trading crypto, stocks, forex, or commodities.
Introduction
To understand what this indicator does, let’s start with the idea of a Z-score. In simple terms, a Z-score tells you how far a number is from the average of its recent history, measured in standard deviations. If the price of an asset is two standard deviations above its mean, that means it’s statistically “rare” or extended. That doesn’t guarantee a reversal—but it suggests the move is unusual enough to pay attention.
This concept isn’t new, but what this indicator does differently is apply the Z-score to a wide set of market signals—not just price. It looks at momentum, volatility, volume, risk-adjusted performance, and even institutional price baselines. Each of those indicators is normalized using Z-scores, and then they’re combined into one average. This gives you a single, easy-to-read line that summarizes whether the entire market is behaving abnormally. Instead of reacting to one indicator, you’re reacting to a statistically balanced blend.
Purpose
The goal of this script is to catch turning points—places where the market may be topping out or bottoming after becoming overstretched. It’s built for traders who want to fade sharp moves rather than follow trends. Think of moments when price explodes upward and starts pulling away from every moving average, volume spikes, volatility rises, and RSI shoots up. This tool is meant to spot those situations—not just when price is stretched, but when multiple different indicators agree that something is overdone.
Originality and Uniqueness
Most indicators that use Z-scores only apply them to one thing—price, RSI, or maybe Bollinger Bands. This one is different because it treats each indicator as a contributor to the full picture. You decide which ones to include, and the script averages them out. This makes the tool flexible but also deeply informative.
It doesn’t rely on complex or hidden math. It uses basic Z-score formulas, applies them to well-known indicators, and shows you the result. What makes it unique is the way it brings those signals together—statistically, visually, and interactively—so you can see what’s happening in the moment with full transparency. It’s not trying to be flashy or predictive. It’s just showing you when things have gone too far, too fast.
Inputs and Parameters
This indicator includes a wide range of configurable inputs, allowing users to customize which components are included in the Z-score average, how each indicator is calculated, and how results are displayed visually. Below is a detailed explanation of each input:
General Settings
Z-Score Lookback (default: 100): Number of bars used to calculate the mean and standard deviation for Z-score normalization. Larger values smooth the Z-scores; smaller values make them more reactive.
Bar Color Mode (default: None): Determines how bars are visually colored. Options include: None: No candle coloring applied. - Heat: Smooth gradient based on the Z-score value. - Latest Signal: Applies a solid color based on the most recent buy or sell signal
Boolean - General
Plot Universal Valuation Line (default: true): If enabled, plots the average Z-score (zAvg) line in the separate pane.
Show Signals (default: true): Displays labels ("𝓤𝓹" for buy, "𝓓𝓸𝔀𝓷" for sell) when zAvg crosses above or below user-defined thresholds.
Show Z-Score Table (default: true): Displays a live table listing each enabled indicator's Z-score and the current average.
Select Indicators
These toggles enable or disable each indicator from contributing to the Z-score average:
Use VWAP Z-Score (default: true)
Use Sortino Z-Score (default: true)
Use ROC Z-Score (default: true)
Use Price Z-Score (default: true)
Use MACD Histogram Z-Score (default: false)
Use Bollinger %B Z-Score (default: false)
Use Stochastic K Z-Score (default: false)
Use Volume Z-Score (default: false)
Use ATR Z-Score (default: false)
Use RSI Z-Score (default: false)
Use Omega Z-Score (default: true)
Use Sharpe Z-Score (default: true)
Only enabled indicators are included in the average. This modular design allows traders to tailor the signal mix to their preferences.
Indicator Lengths
These inputs control how each individual indicator is calculated:
MACD Fast Length (default: 12)
MACD Slow Length (default: 26)
MACD Signal Length (default: 9)
Bollinger Basis Length (default: 20): Used to compute the Bollinger %B.
Bollinger Deviation Multiplier (default: 2.0): Standard deviation multiplier for the Bollinger Band calculation.
Stochastic Length (default: 14)
ATR Length (default: 14)
RSI Length (default: 14)
ROC Length (default: 10)
Zones
These thresholds define key signal levels for the Z-score average:
Neutral Line Level (default: 0): Baseline for the average Z-score.
Bullish Zone Level (default: -1): Optional intermediate zone suggesting early bullish conditions.
Bearish Zone Level (default: 1): Optional intermediate zone suggesting early bearish conditions.
Z = +2 Line Level (default: 2): Primary threshold for bearish signals.
Z = +3 Line Level (default: 3): Extreme bearish warning level.
Z = -2 Line Level (default: -2): Primary threshold for bullish signals.
Z = -3 Line Level (default: -3): Extreme bullish warning level.
These zone levels are used to generate signals, fill background shading, and draw horizontal lines for visual reference.
Why These Indicators Were Merged
Each indicator in this script was chosen for a specific reason. They all measure something different but complementary.
The VWAP Z-score helps you see when price has moved far from the volume-weighted average, often used by institutions.
Sortino Ratio Z-score focuses only on downside risk, which is often more relevant to traders than overall volatility.
ROC Z-score shows how fast price is changing—strong momentum may burn out quickly.
Price Z-score is the raw measure of how far current price has moved from its mean.
RSI Z-score shows whether momentum itself is stretched.
MACD Histogram Z-score captures shifts in trend strength and acceleration.
%B (Bollinger) Z-score indicates how close price is to the upper or lower volatility envelope.
Stochastic K Z-score gives a sense of how high or low price is relative to its recent range.
Volume Z-score shows when trading activity is unusually high or low.
ATR Z-score gives a read on volatility, showing if price movement is expanding or contracting.
Sharpe Z-score measures reward-to-risk performance, useful for evaluating trend quality.
Omega Z-score looks at the ratio of good returns to bad ones, offering a more nuanced view of efficiency.
By normalizing each of these using Z-scores and averaging only the ones you turn on, the script creates a flexible, balanced view of the market’s statistical stretch.
Calculations
The core formula is the standard Z-score:
Z = (current value - average) / standard deviation
Every indicator uses this formula after it’s calculated using your chosen settings. For example, RSI is first calculated as usual, then its Z-score is calculated over your selected lookback period. The script does this for every indicator you enable. Then it averages those Z-scores together to create a single value: zAvg. That value is plotted and used to generate visual cues, signals, table values, background color changes, and candle coloring.
Sequence
Each selected indicator is calculated using your custom input lengths.
The Z-score of each indicator is computed using the shared lookback period.
All active Z-scores are added up and averaged.
The resulting zAvg value is plotted as a line.
Signal conditions check if zAvg crosses user-defined thresholds (default: ±2).
If enabled, the script plots buy/sell signal labels at those crossover points.
The candle color is updated using your selected mode (heatmap or signal-based).
If extreme Z-scores are reached, background highlighting is applied.
A live table updates with each individual Z-score so you know what’s driving the signal.
Features
This script isn’t just about stats—it’s about making them usable in real time. Every feature has a clear reason to exist, and they’re all there to give you a better read on market conditions.
1. Universal Z-Score Line
This is your primary reference. It reflects the average Z-score across all selected indicators. The line updates live and is color-coded to show how far it is from neutral. The further it gets from 0, the brighter the color becomes—cyan for deeply oversold conditions, magenta for overbought. This gives you instant feedback on how statistically “hot” or “cold” the market is, without needing to read any numbers.
2. Signal Labels (“𝓤𝓹” and “𝓓𝓸𝔀𝓷”)
When the average Z-score drops below your lower bound, you’ll see a "𝓤𝓹" label below the bar, suggesting potential bullish reversal conditions. When it rises above the upper bound, a "𝓓𝓸𝔀𝓷" label is shown above the bar—indicating possible bearish exhaustion. These labels are visually clear and minimal so they don’t clutter your chart. They're based on clear crossover logic and do not repaint.
3. Real-Time Z-Score Table
The table shows each indicator's individual Z-score and the final average. It updates every bar, giving you a transparent breakdown of what’s happening under the hood. If the market is showing an extreme average score, this table helps you pinpoint which indicators are contributing the most—so you’re not just guessing where the pressure is coming from.
4. Bar Coloring Modes
You can choose from three modes:
None: Keeps your candles clean and untouched.
Heat: Applies a smooth gradient color based on Z-score intensity. As conditions become more extreme, candle color transitions from neutral to either cyan (bullish pressure) or magenta (bearish pressure).
Latest Signal: Applies hard coloring based on the most recent signal—greenish for a buy, purple for a sell. This mode is great for tracking market state at a glance without relying on a gradient.
Every part of the candle is colored—body, wick, and border—for full visibility.
5. Background Highlighting
When zAvg enters an extreme zone (typically above +2 or below -2), the background shifts color to reflect the market’s intensity. These changes aren’t overwhelming—they’re light fills that act as ambient warnings, helping you stay aware of when price might be reaching a tipping point.
6. Customizable Zone Lines and Fills
You can define what counts as neutral, overbought, and oversold using manual inputs. Horizontal lines show your thresholds, and shaded regions highlight the most extreme zones (+2 to +3 and -2 to -3). These lines give you visual structure to understand where price currently stands in relation to your personal reversal model.
7. Modular Indicator Control
You don’t have to use all the indicators. You can enable or disable any of the 12 with a simple checkbox. This means you can build your own “blend” of market context—maybe you only care about RSI, price, and volume. Or maybe you want everything on. The script adapts accordingly, only averaging what you select.
8. Fully Customizable Sensitivity and Lengths
You can adjust the Z-score lookback length globally (default 100), and tweak individual indicator lengths separately. This lets you tune the indicator’s responsiveness to suit your trading style—slower for longer swings, faster for scalping.
9. Clean Integration with Any Chart Layout
All visual elements are designed to be informative without taking over your chart. The coloring is soft but clear, the labels are readable without being huge, and you can turn off any feature you don’t need. The indicator can work as a full dashboard or as a simple line with a couple of alerts—it’s up to you.
10. Precise, Real-Time Signal Logic
The crossover logic for signals is exact and only fires when the Z-score moves across your defined boundary. No estimation, no delay. Everything is calculated based on current and previous bar data, and nothing repaints or back-adjusts.
Conclusion
The Universal Z-Score Valuation indicator is a tool for traders who want a clear, unbiased way to detect overextension. Instead of relying on a single signal, you get a composite of several market perspectives—momentum, volatility, volume, and more—all standardized into a single view. The script gives you the freedom to control the logic, the visuals, and the components. Whether you use it as a confirmation tool or a primary signal source, it’s designed to give you clarity when markets become chaotic.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for research and educational use only. It does not constitute financial advice or guarantees of performance. All trading involves risk, and users should test any strategy thoroughly before applying it to live markets. Use this tool at your own discretion.
VWAP Deviation Channels with Probability (Lite)VWAP Deviation Channels with Probability (Lite)
Version 1.2
Overview
This indicator is a powerful tool for intraday traders, designed to identify high-probability areas of support and resistance. It plots the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) as a central "value" line and then draws statistically-based deviation channels around it.
Its unique feature is a dynamic probability engine that analyzes thousands of historical price bars to calculate and display the real-time likelihood of the price touching each of these deviation levels. This provides a quantifiable edge for making trading decisions.
Core Concepts Explained
This indicator is built on three key concepts:
The VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price): The dotted midline of the channels is the session VWAP. Unlike a Simple Moving Average (SMA) which only considers price, the VWAP incorporates volume into its calculation. This makes it a much more significant benchmark, as it represents the true average price where the most business has been transacted during the day. It's heavily used by institutional traders, which is why price often reacts strongly to it.
Standard Deviation Channels: The channels above and below the VWAP are based on standard deviations. Standard deviation is a statistical measure of volatility.
- Wide Bands: When the channels are wide, it signifies high volatility.
- Narrow Bands: When the channels are tight and narrow, it signifies low volatility and
consolidation (a "squeeze").
The Conditional Probability Engine: This is the heart of the indicator. For every deviation level, the script displays a percentage. This percentage answers a very specific question:
"Based on thousands of previous bars, when the last candle had a certain momentum (bullish or bearish), what was the historical probability that the price would touch this specific level?"
The probabilities are calculated separately depending on whether the previous candle was green (bullish) or red (bearish). This provides a nuanced, momentum-based edge. The level with the highest probability is highlighted, acting as a "price magnet."
How to Use This Indicator
Recommended Timeframes:
This indicator is designed specifically for intraday trading. It works best on timeframes like the 1-minute, 5-minute, and 15-minute charts. It will not display correctly on daily or higher timeframes.
Recommended Trading Strategy: Mean Reversion
The primary strategy for this indicator is "Mean Reversion." The core idea is that as the price stretches to extreme levels far away from the VWAP (the "mean"), it is statistically more likely to "snap back" toward it.
Here is a step-by-step guide to trading this setup:
1. Identify the Extreme: Wait for the price to push into one of the outer deviation bands (e.g., the -2, -3, or -4 bands for a buy setup, or the +2, +3, or +4 bands for a sell setup).
2. Look for the High-Probability Zone: Pay close attention to the highlighted probability label. This is the level that has historically acted as the strongest magnet for price. A touch of this level represents a high-probability area for a potential reversal.
3. Wait for Confirmation: Do not enter a trade just because the price has touched a band. Wait for a confirmation candle that shows momentum is shifting.
- For a Buy: Look for a strong bullish candle (e.g., a green engulfing candle or a hammer/pin
bar) to form at the lower bands.
- For a Sell: Look for a strong bearish candle (e.g., a red engulfing candle or a shooting star)
to form at the upper bands.
Define Your Exit:
- Take Profit: A logical primary target for a mean reversion trade is the VWAP (midLine).
- Stop Loss: A logical place for a stop-loss is just outside the next deviation band. For
example, if you enter a long trade at the -3 band, your stop loss could be placed just
below the -4 band.
Disclaimer: This indicator is a tool for analysis and should not be considered a standalone trading system. Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use this indicator in conjunction with other forms of analysis and sound risk management practices.
Rapid Candle PATTERNS V2.0Indicator Title: Rapid Candle Patterns - High-Probability Signals
Description
Tired of noisy charts filled with weak and ambiguous candlestick patterns? The Rapid Candle Patterns indicator is engineered to solve this problem by moving beyond simple textbook definitions. It identifies only high-probability reversal and continuation signals by focusing on the underlying market dynamics: momentum, liquidity, and confirmation.
This is not just another pattern indicator; it's a professional-grade tool designed to help you spot truly significant price action events.
How The Logic Works & Why It's More Accurate
Each pattern in this script has been enhanced with stricter, more intelligent rules to filter out noise and reduce false signals. Here’s what makes our logic superior:
1. The Liquidity Grab Hammer & Inverted Hammer
Standard Logic: A simple hammer shows a long lower wick, suggesting buyers pushed the price back up.
Our Enhanced Logic: We don't just look for a hammer shape. Our signal is only valid if the hammer’s low takes out the low of the previous candle (a "liquidity grab" or "stop hunt").
Why It's More Accurate: This sequence is incredibly powerful. It shows that sellers attempted to push the market lower, triggered stop-loss orders below the prior low, and then were decisively overpowered by buyers who reversed the price. This isn't just a reversal; it's a failed breakdown, often trapping sellers and fueling a stronger move in the opposite direction.
2. The "True" Bullish & Bearish Harami
Standard Logic: A small candle forms within the high-low range of the previous candle. This can often be misleading if the prior candle has long wicks and a tiny body.
Our Enhanced Logic: We enforce a "dual containment" rule. For a Harami to be valid, its body must be contained within the body of the previous candle. We also ensure the Harami candle itself is not a Doji, meaning it must show some conviction.
Why It's More Accurate: This ensures you are seeing a genuine and significant contraction in momentum. It filters out scenarios where a large-bodied candle forms inside the wicks of a doji-like candle, which is not a true Harami. Our logic captures the "pregnant" pattern as it was intended—a moment of quiet consolidation before a potential new move.
3. The "Power" Bullish & Bearish Engulfing
Standard Logic: A candle's body engulfs the body of the previous candle. This is a common signal, but it often lacks follow-through.
Our Enhanced Logic: Our "Power Engulfing" requires two conditions: (1) The body must engulf the prior candle's body, AND (2) the candle must close beyond the entire high/low range of the prior candle.
Why It's More Accurate: This is the ultimate sign of confirmation. It doesn't just show that one side has won the battle for the session; it proves they had enough force to break the entire structure of the previous candle. This signifies immense momentum and dramatically increases the probability that the trend will continue in the direction of the engulfing candle.
4. The Quantified Doji
Our Logic: Instead of being a subjective pattern, a Doji is defined quantitatively. It's a candle whose body is less than or equal to a user-defined percentage (default 9%) of its total range.
Why It's More Accurate: It provides a consistent and objective measure of market indecision. Furthermore, any candle identified as a Doji is automatically disqualified from being a Hammer, ensuring clear and distinct signals.
User Customization
Toggle Patterns On/Off: Declutter your chart by only showing the patterns you want to see.
Fine-Tune Logic: Use the "Pattern Logic" settings to adjust the sensitivity of the Doji and Harami detectors to perfectly match your trading style, asset, and timeframe.
Disclaimer: This indicator is a powerful tool for identifying high-probability price action. However, no single indicator is a complete trading system. Always use these signals as part of a comprehensive strategy, combined with analysis of market structure, support/resistance levels, and other forms of confluence.
CoffeeShopCrypto Supertrend Liquidity EngineMost SuperTrend indicators use fixed ATR multipliers that ignore context—forcing traders to constantly tweak settings that rarely adapt well across timeframes or assets.
This Supertrend is a nodd to and a more completion of the work
done by Olivier Seban ( @olivierseban )
This version replaces guesswork with an adaptive factor based on prior session volatility, dynamically adjusting stops to match current conditions. It also introduces liquidity-aware zones, real-time strength histograms, and a visual control panel—making your stoploss smarter, more responsive, and aligned with how the market actually moves.
📏 The Multiplier Problem & Adaptive Factor Solution
Traditional SuperTrend indicators rely on fixed ATR multipliers—often arbitrary numbers like 1.5, 2, or 3. The issue? No logical basis ties these values to actual market conditions. What works on a 5-minute Nasdaq chart fails on a daily EUR/USD chart. Traders spend hours tweaking multipliers per asset, timeframe, or volatility phase—and still end up with stoplosses that are either too tight or too loose. Worse, the market doesn’t care about your setting—it behaves according to underlying volatility, not your parameter.
This version fixes that by automating the multiplier selection entirely. It uses a 4-zone model based on the current ATR relative to the previous session’s ATR, dynamically adjusting the SuperTrend factor to match current volatility. It eliminates guesswork, adapts to the asset and timeframe, and ensures you’re always using a context-aware stoploss—one that evolves with the market instead of fighting it.
ATR EXAMPLE
Let’s say prior session ATR = 2.00
Now suppose current ATR = 0.32
This places us in Zone 1 (Very Low Volatility)
It doesn’t imply "overbought" or "oversold" — it tells you the market is moving very little, which often means:
Lower risk | Smaller stops | Smaller opportunities (and losses)
🔁 Liquidity Zones vs. Arbitrary Pullbacks
The standard SuperTrend stop loss line often looks like price “barely misses it” before continuing its trend. Traders call this "stop hunting," but what’s really happening is liquidity collection—price pulls back into a zone rich in orders before continuing. The problem? The old SuperTrend doesn’t show this zone. It only draws the outer limit, leaving no visual cue for where entries or continuation moves might realistically originate.
This script introduces 2 levels in the Liquidity Zone. One for Support and one for Stophunts, which draw dynamically between the current price and the SuperTrend line. These levels reflect where the market is most likely to revisit before resuming the trend. By visualizing the area just above the Supertrend stop loss, you can anticipate pullbacks, spot ideal re-entries, and avoid premature exits. This bridges the gap between mechanical stoploss logic and real-world liquidity behavior.
⏳ Prior Session ATR vs. Live ATR
Using real-time ATR to determine movement potential is like driving by looking in your rearview mirror. It’s reactive, not predictive. Traders often base decisions on live ATR, unaware that today’s range is still unfolding —creating volatility mismatches between what’s calculated and what actually matters. Since ATR reflects range, calculating it mid-session gives an incomplete and misleading picture of true volatility.
Instead, this system uses the ATR from the previous session , anchoring your volatility assumptions in a fully-formed price structure . It tells you how far price moved in the last full market phase—be it London, New York, or Tokyo—giving you a more reliable gauge of expected range today. This is a smarter way to estimate how far price could move rather than how far it has moved.
The Smoothing function will take the ATR, Support, Resistance, Stophunt Levels, and the Moving Avearage and smooth them by the calculation you choose.
It will also plot a moving average on your chart against closing prices by the smoothing function you choose.
🧭 Scalping vs. Trending Modes
The market moves in at least 4 phases. Trending, Ranging, Consolidation, Distribution.
Every trader has a different style —some scalp low-volatility moves during off-hours, while others ride macro trends across days. The problem with classic SuperTrend? It treats every market condition the same. A fixed system can’t possibly provide proper stoploss spacing for both a fast scalp and a long-term swing. Traders are forced to rebuild their system every time the market changes character or the session shifts.
This version solves that with a simple toggle:
Scalping or Trend Mode . With one switch, it inverts the logic of the adaptive factor to either tighten or loosen your trailing stops. During low-liquidity hours or consolidation phases, Scalping Mode offers snug stoplosses. During expansion or clear directional bias.
Trend Mode lets the trade breathe. This is flexibility built directly into the logic—not something you have to recalibrate manually.
📉 Histogram Oscillator for Move Strength
In legacy indicators, there’s no built-in way to gauge when the move is losing power . Traders rely on price action or momentum indicators to guess if a trend is fading. But this adds clutter, lag, and often contradiction. The classic SuperTrend doesn’t offer insight into how strong or weak the current trend leg is—only whether price has crossed a line.
This version includes a Trending Liquidity Histogram —a histogram that shows whether the liquidity in the SuperTrend zone is expanding or compressing. When the bars weaken or cross toward zero, it signals liquidity exhaustion . This early warning gives you time to prep for reversals or anticipate pullbacks. It even adapts visually depending on your trading mode, showing color-coded signals for scalping vs. trending behavior. It's both a strength gauge and a trade timing tool—built into your stoploss logic.
Histogram in Scalping Mode
Histogram in Trending Mode
📊 Visual Table for Real-Time Clarity
A major issue with custom indicators is opacity —you don’t always know what settings or values are currently being used. Even worse, if your dynamic logic changes mid-trade, you may not notice unless you go digging into the code or logs. This can create confusion, especially for discretionary traders.
This SuperTrend solves it with a clean visual summary table right on your chart. It shows your current ATR value, adaptive multiplier, trailing stop level, and whether a new zone size is active. That means no surprises and no second-guessing—everything important is visible and updated in real-time.
DrawZigZag🟩 OVERVIEW
This library draws zigzag lines for existing pivots. It is designed to be simple to use. If your script creates pivots and you want to join them up while handling edge cases, this library does that quickly and efficiently. If you want your pivots created for you, choose one of the many other zigzag libraries that do that.
🟩 HOW TO USE
Pine Script libraries contain reusable code for importing into indicators. You do not need to copy any code out of here. Just import the library and call the function you want.
For example, for version 1 of this library, import it like this:
import SimpleCryptoLife/DrawZigZag/1
See the EXAMPLE USAGE sections within the library for examples of calling the functions.
For more information on libraries and incorporating them into your scripts, see the Libraries section of the Pine Script User Manual.
🟩 WHAT IT DOES
I looked at every zigzag library on TradingView, after finishing this one. They all seemed to fall into two groups in terms of functionality:
• Create the pivots themselves, using a combination of Williams-style pivots and sometimes price distance.
• Require an array of pivot information, often in a format that uses user-defined types.
My library takes a completely different approach.
Firstly, it only does the drawing. It doesn't calculate the pivots for you. This isn't laziness. There are so many ways to define pivots and that should be up to you. If you've followed my work on market structure you know what I think of Williams pivots.
Secondly, when you pass information about your pivots to the library function, you only need the minimum of pivot information -- whether it's a High or Low pivot, the price, and the bar index. Pass these as normal variables -- bools, ints, and floats -- on the fly as your pivots confirm. It is completely agnostic as to how you derive your pivots. If they are confirmed an arbitrary number of bars after they happen, that's fine.
So why even bother using it if all it does it draw some lines?
Turns out there is quite some logic needed in order to connect highs and lows in the right way, and to handle edge cases. This is the kind of thing one can happily outsource.
🟩 THE RULES
• Zigs and zags must alternate between Highs and Lows. We never connect a High to a High or a Low to a Low.
• If a candle has both a High and Low pivot confirmed on it, the first line is drawn to the end of the candle that is the opposite to the previous pivot. Then the next line goes vertically through the candle to the other end, and then after that continues normally.
• If we draw a line up from a Low to a High pivot, and another High pivot comes in higher, we *extend* the line up, and the same for lines down. Yes this is a form of repainting. It is in my opinion the only way to end up with a correct structure.
• We ignore lower highs on the way up and higher lows on the way down.
🟩 WHAT'S COOL ABOUT THIS LIBRARY
• It's simple and lightweight: no exported user-defined types, no helper methods, no matrices.
• It's really fast. In my profiling it runs at about ~50ms, and changing the options (e.g., trimming the array) doesn't make very much difference.
• You only need to call one function, which does all the calculations and draws all lines.
• There are two variations of this function though -- one simple function that just draws lines, and one slightly more advanced method that modifies an array containing the lines. If you don't know which one you want, use the simpler one.
🟩 GEEK STUFF
• There are no dependencies on other libraries.
• I tried to make the logic as clear as I could and comment it appropriately.
• In the `f_drawZigZags` function, the line variable is declared using the `var` keyword *inside* the function, for simplicity. For this reason, it persists between function calls *only* if the function is called from the global scope or a local if block. In general, if a function is called from inside a loop , or multiple times from different contexts, persistent variables inside that function are re-initialised on each call. In this case, this re-initialisation would mean that the function loses track of the previous line, resulting in incorrect drawings. This is why you cannot call the `f_drawZigZags` function from a loop (not that there's any reason to). The `m_drawZigZagsArray` does not use any internal `var` variables.
• The function itself takes a Boolean parameter `_showZigZag`, which turns the drawings on and off, so there is no need to call the function conditionally. In the examples, we do call the functions from an if block, purely as an illustration of how to increase performance by restricting the amount of code that needs to be run.
🟩 BRING ON THE FUNCTIONS
f_drawZigZags(_showZigZag, _isHighPivot, _isLowPivot, _highPivotPrice, _lowPivotPrice, _pivotIndex, _zigzagWidth, _lineStyle, _upZigColour, _downZagColour)
This function creates or extends the latest zigzag line. Takes real-time information about pivots and draws lines. It does not calculate the pivots. It must be called once per script and cannot be called from a loop.
Parameters:
_showZigZag (bool) : Whether to show the zigzag lines.
_isHighPivot (bool) : Whether the current bar confirms a high pivot. Note that pivots are confirmed after the bar in which they occur.
_isLowPivot (bool) : Whether the current bar confirms a low pivot.
_highPivotPrice (float) : The price of the high pivot that was confirmed this bar. It is NOT the high price of the current bar.
_lowPivotPrice (float) : The price of the low pivot that was confirmed this bar. It is NOT the low price of the current bar.
_pivotIndex (int) : The bar index of the pivot that was confirmed this bar. This is not an offset. It's the `bar_index` value of the pivot.
_zigzagWidth (int) : The width of the zigzag lines.
_lineStyle (string) : The style of the zigzag lines.
_upZigColour (color) : The colour of the up zigzag lines.
_downZagColour (color) : The colour of the down zigzag lines.
Returns: The function has no explicit returns. As a side effect, it draws or updates zigzag lines.
method m_drawZigZagsArray(_a_zigZagLines, _showZigZag, _isHighPivot, _isLowPivot, _highPivotPrice, _lowPivotPrice, _pivotIndex, _zigzagWidth, _lineStyle, _upZigColour, _downZagColour, _trimArray)
Namespace types: array
Parameters:
_a_zigZagLines (array)
_showZigZag (bool) : Whether to show the zigzag lines.
_isHighPivot (bool) : Whether the current bar confirms a high pivot. Note that pivots are usually confirmed after the bar in which they occur.
_isLowPivot (bool) : Whether the current bar confirms a low pivot.
_highPivotPrice (float) : The price of the high pivot that was confirmed this bar. It is NOT the high price of the current bar.
_lowPivotPrice (float) : The price of the low pivot that was confirmed this bar. It is NOT the low price of the current bar.
_pivotIndex (int) : The bar index of the pivot that was confirmed this bar. This is not an offset. It's the `bar_index` value of the pivot.
_zigzagWidth (int) : The width of the zigzag lines.
_lineStyle (string) : The style of the zigzag lines.
_upZigColour (color) : The colour of the up zigzag lines.
_downZagColour (color) : The colour of the down zigzag lines.
_trimArray (bool) : If true, the array of lines is kept to a maximum size of two lines (the line elements are not deleted). If false (the default), the array is kept to a maximum of 500 lines (the maximum number of line objects a single Pine script can display).
Returns: This function has no explicit returns but it modifies a global array of zigzag lines.
Risk-Adjusted Momentum Oscillator# Risk-Adjusted Momentum Oscillator (RAMO): Momentum Analysis with Integrated Risk Assessment
## 1. Introduction
Momentum indicators have been fundamental tools in technical analysis since the pioneering work of Wilder (1978) and continue to play crucial roles in systematic trading strategies (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993). However, traditional momentum oscillators suffer from a critical limitation: they fail to account for the risk context in which momentum signals occur. This oversight can lead to significant drawdowns during periods of market stress, as documented extensively in the behavioral finance literature (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Shefrin & Statman, 1985).
The Risk-Adjusted Momentum Oscillator addresses this gap by incorporating real-time drawdown metrics into momentum calculations, creating a self-regulating system that automatically adjusts signal sensitivity based on current risk conditions. This approach aligns with modern portfolio theory's emphasis on risk-adjusted returns (Markowitz, 1952) and reflects the sophisticated risk management practices employed by institutional investors (Ang, 2014).
## 2. Theoretical Foundation
### 2.1 Momentum Theory and Market Anomalies
The momentum effect, first systematically documented by Jegadeesh & Titman (1993), represents one of the most robust anomalies in financial markets. Subsequent research has confirmed momentum's persistence across various asset classes, time horizons, and geographic markets (Fama & French, 1996; Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen, 2013). However, momentum strategies are characterized by significant time-varying risk, with particularly severe drawdowns during market reversals (Barroso & Santa-Clara, 2015).
### 2.2 Drawdown Analysis and Risk Management
Maximum drawdown, defined as the peak-to-trough decline in portfolio value, serves as a critical risk metric in professional portfolio management (Calmar, 1991). Research by Chekhlov, Uryasev & Zabarankin (2005) demonstrates that drawdown-based risk measures provide superior downside protection compared to traditional volatility metrics. The integration of drawdown analysis into momentum calculations represents a natural evolution toward more sophisticated risk-aware indicators.
### 2.3 Adaptive Smoothing and Market Regimes
The concept of adaptive smoothing in technical analysis draws from the broader literature on regime-switching models in finance (Hamilton, 1989). Perry Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average (1995) pioneered the application of efficiency ratios to adjust indicator responsiveness based on market conditions. RAMO extends this concept by incorporating volatility-based adaptive smoothing, allowing the indicator to respond more quickly during high-volatility periods while maintaining stability during quiet markets.
## 3. Methodology
### 3.1 Core Algorithm Design
The RAMO algorithm consists of several interconnected components:
#### 3.1.1 Risk-Adjusted Momentum Calculation
The fundamental innovation of RAMO lies in its risk adjustment mechanism:
Risk_Factor = 1 - (Current_Drawdown / Maximum_Drawdown × Scaling_Factor)
Risk_Adjusted_Momentum = Raw_Momentum × max(Risk_Factor, 0.05)
This formulation ensures that momentum signals are dampened during periods of high drawdown relative to historical maximums, implementing an automatic risk management overlay as advocated by modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952).
#### 3.1.2 Multi-Algorithm Momentum Framework
RAMO supports three distinct momentum calculation methods:
1. Rate of Change: Traditional percentage-based momentum (Pring, 2002)
2. Price Momentum: Absolute price differences
3. Log Returns: Logarithmic returns preferred for volatile assets (Campbell, Lo & MacKinlay, 1997)
This multi-algorithm approach accommodates different asset characteristics and volatility profiles, addressing the heterogeneity documented in cross-sectional momentum studies (Asness et al., 2013).
### 3.2 Leading Indicator Components
#### 3.2.1 Momentum Acceleration Analysis
The momentum acceleration component calculates the second derivative of momentum, providing early signals of trend changes:
Momentum_Acceleration = EMA(Momentum_t - Momentum_{t-n}, n)
This approach draws from the physics concept of acceleration and has been applied successfully in financial time series analysis (Treadway, 1969).
#### 3.2.2 Linear Regression Prediction
RAMO incorporates linear regression-based prediction to project momentum values forward:
Predicted_Momentum = LinReg_Value + (LinReg_Slope × Forward_Offset)
This predictive component aligns with the literature on technical analysis forecasting (Lo, Mamaysky & Wang, 2000) and provides leading signals for trend changes.
#### 3.2.3 Volume-Based Exhaustion Detection
The exhaustion detection algorithm identifies potential reversal points by analyzing the relationship between momentum extremes and volume patterns:
Exhaustion = |Momentum| > Threshold AND Volume < SMA(Volume, 20)
This approach reflects the established principle that sustainable price movements require volume confirmation (Granville, 1963; Arms, 1989).
### 3.3 Statistical Normalization and Robustness
RAMO employs Z-score normalization with outlier protection to ensure statistical robustness:
Z_Score = (Value - Mean) / Standard_Deviation
Normalized_Value = max(-3.5, min(3.5, Z_Score))
This normalization approach follows best practices in quantitative finance for handling extreme observations (Taleb, 2007) and ensures consistent signal interpretation across different market conditions.
### 3.4 Adaptive Threshold Calculation
Dynamic thresholds are calculated using Bollinger Band methodology (Bollinger, 1992):
Upper_Threshold = Mean + (Multiplier × Standard_Deviation)
Lower_Threshold = Mean - (Multiplier × Standard_Deviation)
This adaptive approach ensures that signal thresholds adjust to changing market volatility, addressing the critique of fixed thresholds in technical analysis (Taylor & Allen, 1992).
## 4. Implementation Details
### 4.1 Adaptive Smoothing Algorithm
The adaptive smoothing mechanism adjusts the exponential moving average alpha parameter based on market volatility:
Volatility_Percentile = Percentrank(Volatility, 100)
Adaptive_Alpha = Min_Alpha + ((Max_Alpha - Min_Alpha) × Volatility_Percentile / 100)
This approach ensures faster response during volatile periods while maintaining smoothness during stable conditions, implementing the adaptive efficiency concept pioneered by Kaufman (1995).
### 4.2 Risk Environment Classification
RAMO classifies market conditions into three risk environments:
- Low Risk: Current_DD < 30% × Max_DD
- Medium Risk: 30% × Max_DD ≤ Current_DD < 70% × Max_DD
- High Risk: Current_DD ≥ 70% × Max_DD
This classification system enables conditional signal generation, with long signals filtered during high-risk periods—a approach consistent with institutional risk management practices (Ang, 2014).
## 5. Signal Generation and Interpretation
### 5.1 Entry Signal Logic
RAMO generates enhanced entry signals through multiple confirmation layers:
1. Primary Signal: Crossover between indicator and signal line
2. Risk Filter: Confirmation of favorable risk environment for long positions
3. Leading Component: Early warning signals via acceleration analysis
4. Exhaustion Filter: Volume-based reversal detection
This multi-layered approach addresses the false signal problem common in traditional technical indicators (Brock, Lakonishok & LeBaron, 1992).
### 5.2 Divergence Analysis
RAMO incorporates both traditional and leading divergence detection:
- Traditional Divergence: Price and indicator divergence over 3-5 periods
- Slope Divergence: Momentum slope versus price direction
- Acceleration Divergence: Changes in momentum acceleration
This comprehensive divergence analysis framework draws from Elliott Wave theory (Prechter & Frost, 1978) and momentum divergence literature (Murphy, 1999).
## 6. Empirical Advantages and Applications
### 6.1 Risk-Adjusted Performance
The risk adjustment mechanism addresses the fundamental criticism of momentum strategies: their tendency to experience severe drawdowns during market reversals (Daniel & Moskowitz, 2016). By automatically reducing position sizing during high-drawdown periods, RAMO implements a form of dynamic hedging consistent with portfolio insurance concepts (Leland, 1980).
### 6.2 Regime Awareness
RAMO's adaptive components enable regime-aware signal generation, addressing the regime-switching behavior documented in financial markets (Hamilton, 1989; Guidolin, 2011). The indicator automatically adjusts its parameters based on market volatility and risk conditions, providing more reliable signals across different market environments.
### 6.3 Institutional Applications
The sophisticated risk management overlay makes RAMO particularly suitable for institutional applications where drawdown control is paramount. The indicator's design philosophy aligns with the risk budgeting approaches used by hedge funds and institutional investors (Roncalli, 2013).
## 7. Limitations and Future Research
### 7.1 Parameter Sensitivity
Like all technical indicators, RAMO's performance depends on parameter selection. While default parameters are optimized for broad market applications, asset-specific calibration may enhance performance. Future research should examine optimal parameter selection across different asset classes and market conditions.
### 7.2 Market Microstructure Considerations
RAMO's effectiveness may vary across different market microstructure environments. High-frequency trading and algorithmic market making have fundamentally altered market dynamics (Aldridge, 2013), potentially affecting momentum indicator performance.
### 7.3 Transaction Cost Integration
Future enhancements could incorporate transaction cost analysis to provide net-return-based signals, addressing the implementation shortfall documented in practical momentum strategy applications (Korajczyk & Sadka, 2004).
## References
Aldridge, I. (2013). *High-Frequency Trading: A Practical Guide to Algorithmic Strategies and Trading Systems*. 2nd ed. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
Ang, A. (2014). *Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing*. New York: Oxford University Press.
Arms, R. W. (1989). *The Arms Index (TRIN): An Introduction to the Volume Analysis of Stock and Bond Markets*. Homewood, IL: Dow Jones-Irwin.
Asness, C. S., Moskowitz, T. J., & Pedersen, L. H. (2013). Value and momentum everywhere. *Journal of Finance*, 68(3), 929-985.
Barroso, P., & Santa-Clara, P. (2015). Momentum has its moments. *Journal of Financial Economics*, 116(1), 111-120.
Bollinger, J. (1992). *Bollinger on Bollinger Bands*. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. *Journal of Finance*, 47(5), 1731-1764.
Calmar, T. (1991). The Calmar ratio: A smoother tool. *Futures*, 20(1), 40.
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). *The Econometrics of Financial Markets*. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Chekhlov, A., Uryasev, S., & Zabarankin, M. (2005). Drawdown measure in portfolio optimization. *International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance*, 8(1), 13-58.
Daniel, K., & Moskowitz, T. J. (2016). Momentum crashes. *Journal of Financial Economics*, 122(2), 221-247.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1996). Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies. *Journal of Finance*, 51(1), 55-84.
Granville, J. E. (1963). *Granville's New Key to Stock Market Profits*. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Guidolin, M. (2011). Markov switching models in empirical finance. In D. N. Drukker (Ed.), *Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications* (pp. 1-86). Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. *Econometrica*, 57(2), 357-384.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency. *Journal of Finance*, 48(1), 65-91.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. *Econometrica*, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (1995). *Smarter Trading: Improving Performance in Changing Markets*. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Korajczyk, R. A., & Sadka, R. (2004). Are momentum profits robust to trading costs? *Journal of Finance*, 59(3), 1039-1082.
Leland, H. E. (1980). Who should buy portfolio insurance? *Journal of Finance*, 35(2), 581-594.
Lo, A. W., Mamaysky, H., & Wang, J. (2000). Foundations of technical analysis: Computational algorithms, statistical inference, and empirical implementation. *Journal of Finance*, 55(4), 1705-1765.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. *Journal of Finance*, 7(1), 77-91.
Murphy, J. J. (1999). *Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications*. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Prechter, R. R., & Frost, A. J. (1978). *Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior*. Gainesville, GA: New Classics Library.
Pring, M. J. (2002). *Technical Analysis Explained: The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points*. 4th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Roncalli, T. (2013). *Introduction to Risk Parity and Budgeting*. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Shefrin, H., & Statman, M. (1985). The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: Theory and evidence. *Journal of Finance*, 40(3), 777-790.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). *The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable*. New York: Random House.
Taylor, M. P., & Allen, H. (1992). The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market. *Journal of International Money and Finance*, 11(3), 304-314.
Treadway, A. B. (1969). On rational entrepreneurial behavior and the demand for investment. *Review of Economic Studies*, 36(2), 227-239.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). *New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems*. Greensboro, NC: Trend Research.
Shooting Star ORB🧠 Indicator Name: "First Candle Shooting Star + ORB"
📌 Purpose
This indicator detects when the first candle of the day forms a Shooting Star pattern and then monitors for a breakout beyond its range. It visually marks the pattern and the breakout with boxes and provides real-time alerts and a status table.
🔍 What It Does Step-by-Step
1. 📅 Detects the Start of a New Trading Day
Uses ta.change(time("D")) to identify a new trading day.
When a new day starts, it checks if the very first candle of the session is a Shooting Star.
2. 🕯️ Identifies a Shooting Star Pattern
A candle is labeled a Shooting Star if:
It has a small body compared to the full candle range.
It has a long upper shadow at least 2× the body.
It has a short or tiny lower shadow.
All these criteria are adjustable through inputs.
3. 📦 Draws a Box for the First Candle Range
If a Shooting Star is found in the first candle of the day:
It draws a red shaded box covering the high and low of that candle.
The box visually marks the potential Opening Range.
4. 💥 Detects Breakout from Shooting Star Candle
After the first candle:
If price moves above or below the range by a specified % (like 1%), it flags a breakout.
A blue shaded box is drawn at the breakout candle for visual confirmation.
5. 🔔 Alerts
🔴 Shooting Star Detected: Alerts when the first candle is a shooting star.
🔵 Breakout Detected: Alerts when the price breaks out of the first candle’s range.
6. 📊 Displays Real-Time Info Table
A small table is shown on the chart:
🕯️ Pattern: “Shooting Star” or blank
💥 Breakout: “Yes” or “No”
⏱️ The timeframe being analyzed (e.g., “5” for 5-minute)
Chaikin Oscillator Multi-Timeframe BiasOverview
Chaikin Oscillator Multi-Timeframe Bias is an indicator designed to help traders align with institutional buying and selling activity by analyzing Chaikin Oscillator signals across two timeframes—a higher timeframe (HTF) for trend bias and a lower timeframe (LTF) for timing. This dual-confirmation model helps traders avoid false breakouts and trade in sync with market momentum and accumulation or distribution dynamics.
Core Concepts
The Chaikin Oscillator measures the momentum of accumulation and distribution based on price and volume. Institutional traders typically accumulate slowly and steadily, and the Chaikin Oscillator helps reveal this pattern. Multi-timeframe analysis confirms whether short-term price action supports the longer-term trend. This indicator applies a smoothing EMA to each Chaikin Oscillator to help confirm direction and reduce noise.
How to Use the Indicator
Start by selecting your timeframes. The higher timeframe, set by default to Daily, establishes the broader directional bias. The lower timeframe, defaulted to 30 minutes, identifies short-term momentum confirmation. The indicator displays one of five labels: CALL Bias, CALL Wait, PUT Bias, PUT Wait, or NEUTRAL. CALL Bias means both HTF and LTF are bullish, signaling a potential opportunity for long or call trades. CALL Wait indicates that the HTF is bullish, but the LTF hasn’t confirmed yet. PUT Bias signals bearish alignment in both HTF and LTF, while PUT Wait indicates HTF is bearish and LTF has not yet confirmed. NEUTRAL means there is no alignment between timeframes and directional trades are not advised.
Interpretation
When the Chaikin Oscillator is above zero and also above its EMA, this indicates bullish momentum and accumulation. When the oscillator is below zero and below its EMA, it suggests bearish momentum and distribution. Bias labels identify when both timeframes are aligned for a higher-probability directional setup. When a “Wait” label appears, it means one timeframe has confirmed bias but the other has not, suggesting the trader should monitor closely but delay entry.
Notes
This indicator includes alerts for both CALL and PUT bias confirmation when both timeframes are aligned. It works on all asset classes, including stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and futures. Timeframes are fully customizable, and users may explore combinations such as 1D and 1H, or 4H and 15M depending on their strategy. For best results, consider pairing this tool with volume, volatility, or price action analysis.
SMA50 ATR%SMA50 ATR% Zones Indicator
Overview:
The "SMA50 ATR%" indicator is designed to provide dynamic zones above and below a Simple Moving Average (SMA) based on multiples of the Average True Range (ATR). These zones can help traders identify potential areas of interest for entries, profit-taking, and stop-loss placement by visualizing how far the price has deviated from its medium-term mean (SMA) relative to its recent volatility (ATR).
Key Features:
Central SMA: Plots a customizable Simple Moving Average (default 50-period) as the baseline.
ATR-Based Zones: Calculates and displays distinct zones by adding or subtracting multiples of the ATR (default 10-period) from the SMA.
Color-Coded Visuals: Each zone type is clearly differentiated by color and shading intensity, providing an intuitive visual guide.
Current Zone Label: Displays the specific ATR multiple zone the current price is trading in, offering quick insight into the market's current position relative to the zones.
Zone Breakdown:
The indicator plots the following zones:
Entry Zones (Green Shades):
+1x ATR to +2x ATR above SMA
+2x ATR to +3x ATR above SMA
+3x ATR to +4x ATR above SMA
The green shades become progressively lighter as they move further from the SMA, with the zone closest to the SMA being the darkest green.
Hold Zones (Yellow Shades):
+4x ATR to +5x ATR above SMA (Darker Yellow)
+5x ATR to +6x ATR above SMA (Lighter Yellow)
Sell Zones (Red Shades):
+6x ATR to +7x ATR above SMA
+7x ATR to +8x ATR above SMA
+8x ATR to +9x ATR above SMA
+9x ATR to +10x ATR above SMA
+10x ATR to +11x ATR above SMA
The red shades become progressively darker as they move further from the +6x ATR level, with the +10x to +11x ATR zone being the darkest red.
Stop Loss Zones (Red Shades):
-1x ATR below SMA (Lighter Red)
-1x ATR to -2x ATR below SMA (Darker Red)
How to Use:
Potential Entry Areas: The green "Entry Zones" might indicate areas where the price has pulled back towards the SMA but is still showing strength, or areas where a breakout above the SMA is gaining momentum relative to volatility.
Potential Overbought/Hold Areas: The yellow "Hold Zones" could suggest that the price is becoming extended from its mean, warranting caution or a "hold" approach for existing positions.
Potential Profit-Taking/Sell Areas: The red "Sell Zones" might highlight significantly overbought conditions where the price has moved multiple ATRs above the SMA, potentially signaling areas for profit-taking or considering short entries.
Potential Stop-Loss Areas: The red "Stop Loss Zones" below the SMA can help define areas where a breakdown below the moving average, considering volatility, might invalidate a bullish bias.
Customization:
SMA Length: Adjust the period for the Simple Moving Average (Default: 50).
ATR Length: Adjust the period for the Average True Range calculation (Default: 10).
Show Current Zone Label: Toggle the visibility of the on-screen label that displays the current price's ATR zone.
SMA Line Width: Customize the thickness of the SMA line.
Label Position & Size: Control the placement and text size of the current zone label for optimal chart readability.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is a tool for technical analysis and should not be considered as financial advice. Always use risk management and combine with other analysis methods before making trading decisions.
magic wand STSM"Magic Wand STSM" Strategy: Trend-Following with Dynamic Risk Management
Overview:
The "Magic Wand STSM" (Supertrend & SMA Momentum) is an automated trading strategy designed to identify and capitalize on sustained trends in the market. It combines a multi-timeframe Supertrend for trend direction and potential reversal signals, along with a 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) for overall market bias. A key feature of this strategy is its dynamic position sizing based on a user-defined risk percentage per trade, and a built-in daily and monthly profit/loss tracking system to manage overall exposure and prevent overtrading.
How it Works (Underlying Concepts):
Multi-Timeframe Trend Confirmation (Supertrend):
The strategy uses two Supertrend indicators: one on the current chart timeframe and another on a higher timeframe (e.g., if your chart is 5-minute, the higher timeframe Supertrend might be 15-minute).
Trend Identification: The Supertrend's direction output is crucial. A negative direction indicates a bearish trend (price below Supertrend), while a positive direction indicates a bullish trend (price above Supertrend).
Confirmation: A core principle is that trades are only considered when the Supertrend on both the current and the higher timeframe align in the same direction. This helps to filter out noise and focus on stronger, more confirmed trends. For example, for a long trade, both Supertrends must be indicating a bearish trend (price below Supertrend line, implying an uptrend context where price is expected to stay above/rebound from Supertrend). Similarly, for short trades, both must be indicating a bullish trend (price above Supertrend line, implying a downtrend context where price is expected to stay below/retest Supertrend).
Trend "Readiness": The strategy specifically looks for situations where the Supertrend has been stable for a few bars (checking barssince the last direction change).
Long-Term Market Bias (200 SMA):
A 200-period Simple Moving Average is plotted on the chart.
Filter: For long trades, the price must be above the 200 SMA, confirming an overall bullish bias. For short trades, the price must be below the 200 SMA, confirming an overall bearish bias. This acts as a macro filter, ensuring trades are taken in alignment with the broader market direction.
"Lowest/Highest Value" Pullback Entries:
The strategy employs custom functions (LowestValueAndBar, HighestValueAndBar) to identify specific price action within the recent trend:
For Long Entries: It looks for a "buy ready" condition where the price has found a recent lowest point within a specific number of bars since the Supertrend turned bearish (indicating an uptrend). This suggests a potential pullback or consolidation before continuation. The entry trigger is a close above the open of this identified lowest bar, and also above the current bar's open.
For Short Entries: It looks for a "sell ready" condition where the price has found a recent highest point within a specific number of bars since the Supertrend turned bullish (indicating a downtrend). This suggests a potential rally or consolidation before continuation downwards. The entry trigger is a close below the open of this identified highest bar, and also below the current bar's open.
Candle Confirmation: The strategy also incorporates a check on the candle type at the "lowest/highest value" bar (e.g., closevalue_b < openvalue_b for buy signals, meaning a bearish candle at the low, suggesting a potential reversal before a buy).
Risk Management and Position Sizing:
Dynamic Lot Sizing: The lotsvalue function calculates the appropriate position size based on your Your Equity input, the Risk to Reward ratio, and your risk percentage for your balance % input. This ensures that the capital risked per trade remains consistent as a percentage of your equity, regardless of the instrument's volatility or price. The stop loss distance is directly used in this calculation.
Fixed Risk Reward: All trades are entered with a predefined Risk to Reward ratio (default 2.0). This means for every unit of risk (stop loss distance), the target profit is rr times that distance.
Daily and Monthly Performance Monitoring:
The strategy tracks todaysWins, todaysLosses, and res (daily net result) in real-time.
A "daily profit target" is implemented (day_profit): If the daily net result is very favorable (e.g., res >= 4 with todaysLosses >= 2 or todaysWins + todaysLosses >= 8), the strategy may temporarily halt trading for the remainder of the session to "lock in" profits and prevent overtrading during volatile periods.
A "monthly stop-out" (monthly_trade) is implemented: If the lres (overall net result from all closed trades) falls below a certain threshold (e.g., -12), the strategy will stop trading for a set period (one week in this case) to protect capital during prolonged drawdowns.
Trade Execution:
Entry Triggers: Trades are entered when all buy/sell conditions (Supertrend alignment, SMA filter, "buy/sell situation" candle confirmation, and risk management checks) are met, and there are no open positions.
Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Stop Loss: The stop loss is dynamically placed at the upTrendValue for long trades and downTrendValue for short trades. These values are derived from the Supertrend indicator, which naturally adjusts to market volatility.
Take Profit: The take profit is calculated based on the entry price, the stop loss, and the Risk to Reward ratio (rr).
Position Locks: lock_long and lock_short variables prevent immediate re-entry into the same direction once a trade is initiated, or after a trend reversal based on Supertrend changes.
Visual Elements:
The 200 SMA is plotted in yellow.
Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profit lines are plotted in white, red, and green respectively when a trade is active, with shaded areas between them to visually represent risk and reward.
Diamond shapes are plotted at the bottom of the chart (green for potential buy signals, red for potential sell signals) to visually indicate when the buy_sit or sell_sit conditions are met, along with other key filters.
A comprehensive trade statistics table is displayed on the chart, showing daily wins/losses, daily profit, total deals, and overall profit/loss.
A background color indicates the active trading session.
Ideal Usage:
This strategy is best applied to instruments with clear trends and sufficient liquidity. Users should carefully adjust the Your Equity, Risk to Reward, and risk percentage inputs to align with their individual risk tolerance and capital. Experimentation with different ATR Length and Factor values for the Supertrend might be beneficial depending on the asset and timeframe.
Range Progress TrackerRANGE PROGRESS TRACKER(RPT)
PURPOSE
This indicator helps traders visually and statistically understand how much of the typical price range (measured by ATR) has already been covered in the current period (Daily, Weekly, or Monthly). It includes key features to assist in trend exhaustion analysis, reversal spotting, and smart alerting.
CORE LOGIC
The indicator calculates the current range of the selected time frame (e.g., Daily), which is:
Current Range = High - Low
This is then compared to the ATR (Average True Range) of the same time frame, which represents the average price movement range over a defined period (default is 14).
The comparison is expressed as a percentage, calculated with this formula:
Range % = (Current Range / ATR) × 100
This percentage shows how much of the “average expected move” has already occurred.
WHY IT MATTERS
When the current range approaches or exceeds 100% of ATR, it means the price has already moved as much as it typically does in a full session.
This indicates a lower probability of continuing the trend with a new high or low, especially when the price is already near the session's high or low.
This setup can signal:
A possible consolidation phase
A reversal in trend
The market entering a corrective phase
SMART ALERTS
The indicator can alert you when:
A new high is made after the range percentage exceeds your set threshold.
A new low is made after the range percentage exceeds your set threshold.
You can adjust the Range % Alert Threshold in the settings to tailor it to your trading style.
EMA Pullback Speed Strategy 📌 **Overview**
The **EMA Pullback Speed Strategy** is a trend-following approach that combines **price momentum** and **Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)**.
It aims to identify high-probability entry points during brief pullbacks within ongoing uptrends or downtrends.
The strategy evaluates **speed of price movement**, **relative position to dynamic EMA**, and **candlestick patterns** to determine ideal timing for entries.
One of the key concepts is checking whether the price has **“not pulled back too much”**, helping focus only on situations where the trend is likely to continue.
⚠️ This strategy is designed for educational and research purposes only. It does not guarantee future profits.
🧭 **Purpose**
This strategy addresses the common issue of **"jumping in too late during trends and taking unnecessary losses."**
By waiting for a healthy pullback and confirming signs of **trend resumption**, traders can enter with greater confidence and reduce false entries.
🎯 **Strategy Objectives**
* Enter in the direction of the prevailing trend to increase win rate
* Filter out false signals using pullback depth, speed, and candlestick confirmations
* Predefine Take-Profit (TP) and Stop-Loss (SL) levels for safer, rule-based trading
✨ **Key Features**
* **Dynamic EMA**: Reacts faster when price moves quickly, slower when market is calm – adapting to current momentum
* **Pullback Filter**: Avoids trades when price pulls back too far (e.g., more than 5%), indicating a trend may be weakening
* **Speed Check**: Measures how strongly the price returns to the trend using candlestick body speed (open-to-close range in ticks)
📊 **Trading Rules**
**■ Long Entry Conditions:**
* Current price is above the dynamic EMA (indicating uptrend)
* Price has pulled back toward the EMA (a "buy the dip" situation)
* Pullback depth is within the threshold (not excessive)
* Candlesticks show consecutive bullish closes and break the previous high
* Price speed is strong (positive movement with momentum)
**■ Short Entry Conditions:**
* Current price is below the dynamic EMA (indicating downtrend)
* Price has pulled back up toward the EMA (a "sell the rally" setup)
* Pullback is within range (not too deep)
* Candlesticks show consecutive bearish closes and break the previous low
* Price speed is negative (downward momentum confirmed)
**■ Exit Conditions (TP/SL):**
* **Take-Profit (TP):** Fixed 1.5% target above/below entry price
* **Stop-Loss (SL):** Based on recent price volatility, calculated using ATR × 4
💰 **Risk Management Parameters**
* Symbol & Timeframe: BTCUSD on 1-hour chart (H1)
* Test Capital: \$3000 (simulated account)
* Commission: 0.02%
* Slippage: 2 ticks (minimal execution lag)
* Max risk per trade: 5% of account balance
* Backtest Period: Aug 30, 2023 – May 9, 2025
* Profit Factor (PF): 1.965 (Net profit ÷ Net loss, including spreads & fees)
⚙️ **Trading Parameters & Indicator Settings**
* Maximum EMA Length: 50
* Accelerator Multiplier: 3.0
* Pullback Threshold: 5.0%
* ATR Period: 14
* ATR Multiplier (SL distance): 4.0
* Fixed TP: 1.5%
* Short-term EMA: 21
* Long-term EMA: 50
* Long Speed Threshold: ≥ 1000.0 (ticks)
* Short Speed Threshold: ≤ -1000.0 (ticks)
⚠️Adjustments are based on BTCUSD.
⚠️Forex and other currency pairs require separate adjustments.
🔧 **Strategy Improvements & Uniqueness**
Unlike basic moving average crossovers or RSI triggers, this strategy emphasizes **"momentum-supported pullbacks"**.
By combining dynamic EMA, speed checks, and candlestick signals, it captures trades **as if surfing the wave of a trend.**
Its built-in filters help **avoid overextended pullbacks**, which often signal the trend is ending – making it more robust than traditional trend-following systems.
✅ **Summary**
The **EMA Pullback Speed Strategy** is easy to understand, rule-based, and highly reproducible – ideal for both beginners and intermediate traders.
Because it shows **clear visual entry/exit points** on the chart, it’s also a great tool for practicing discretionary trading decisions.
⚠️ Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Always respect your Stop-Loss levels and manage your position size according to your risk tolerance.
SMC Strategy BTC 1H - OB/FVGGeneral Context
This strategy is based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC), in particular:
The bullish Break of Structure (BOS), indicating a possible reversal or continuation of an upward trend.
The detection of Order Blocks (OB): consolidation zones preceding the BOS where the "smart money" has likely accumulated positions.
The detection of Fair Value Gaps (FVG), also called imbalance zones where the price has "jumped" a level, creating a disequilibrium between buyers and sellers.
Strategy Mechanics
Bullish Break of Structure (BOS)
A bullish BOS is detected when the price breaks a previous swing high.
A swing high is defined as a local peak higher than the previous 4 peaks.
Order Block (OB)
A bearish candle (close < open) just before a bullish BOS is identified as an OB.
This OB is recorded with its high and low.
An "active" OB zone is maintained for a certain number of bars (the zoneTimeout parameter).
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
A bullish FVG is detected if the high of the candle two bars ago is lower than the low of the current candle.
This FVG zone is also recorded and remains active for zoneTimeout bars.
Long Entry
An entry is possible if the price returns into the active OB zone or FVG zone (depending on which parameters are enabled).
Entry is only allowed if no position is currently open (strategy.position_size == 0).
Risk Management
The stop loss is placed below the OB low, with a buffer based on a multiple of the ATR (Average True Range), adjustable via the atrFactor parameter.
The take profit is set according to an adjustable Risk/Reward ratio (rrRatio) relative to the stop loss to entry distance.
Adjustable Parameters
Enable/disable entries based on OB and/or FVG.
ATR multiplier for stop loss.
Risk/Reward ratio for take profit.
Duration of OB and FVG zone activation.
Visualization
The script displays:
BOS (Break of Structure) with a green label above the candles.
OB zones (in orange) and FVG zones (in light blue).
Entry signals (green triangle below the candle).
Stop loss (red line) and take profit (green line).
Strengths and Limitations
Strengths:
Based on solid Smart Money analysis concepts.
OB and FVG zones are natural potential reversal areas.
Adjustable parameters allow optimization for different market conditions.
Dynamic risk management via ATR.
Limitations:
Only takes long positions.
No trend filter (e.g., EMA), which may lead to false signals in sideways markets.
Fixed zone duration may not fit all situations.
No automatic optimization; testing with different parameters is necessary.
Summary
This strategy aims to capitalize on price retracements into key zones where "smart money" has acted (OB and FVG) just after a bullish Break of Structure (BOS) signal. It is simple, customizable, and can serve as a foundation for a more comprehensive strategy.
Enigma Sniper 369The "Enigma Sniper 369" is a custom-built Pine Script indicator designed for TradingView, tailored specifically for forex traders seeking high-probability entries during high-volatility market sessions.
Unlike generic trend-following or scalping tools, this indicator uniquely combines session-based "kill zones" (London and US sessions), momentum-based candle analysis, and an optional EMA trend filter to pinpoint liquidity grabs and reversal opportunities.
Its originality lies in its focus on liquidity hunting—identifying levels where stop losses are likely clustered (around swing highs/lows and wick midpoints)—and providing visual entry zones that are dynamically removed once price breaches them, reducing clutter and focusing on actionable signals.
The name "369" reflects the structured approach of three key components (session timing, candle logic, and trend filter) working in harmony to snipe precise entries.
What It Does
"Enigma Sniper 369" identifies potential buy and sell opportunities by drawing two types of horizontal lines on the chart during user-defined London and US
session kill zones:
Solid Lines: Mark the swing low (for buys) or swing high (for sells) of a trigger candle, indicating a potential entry point where stop losses might be clustered.
Dotted Lines: Mark the 50% level of the candle’s wick (lower wick for buys, upper wick for sells), serving as a secondary confirmation zone for entries or tighter stop-loss placement.
These lines are plotted only when specific candle conditions are met within the kill zones, and they are automatically deleted once the price crosses them, signaling that the liquidity at that level has likely been grabbed. The indicator also includes an optional EMA filter to ensure trades align with the broader trend, reducing false signals in choppy markets.
How It Works
The indicator’s logic is built on a multi-layered approach:
Kill Zone Timing: Trades are only considered during user-defined London and US session hours (e.g., London from 02:00 to 12:00 UTC, as seen in the screenshots). These sessions are known for high volatility and liquidity, making them ideal for capturing institutional moves.
Candle-Based Momentum Logic:
Buy Signal: A candle must close above its midpoint (indicating bullish momentum) and have a lower low than the previous candle (suggesting a potential liquidity grab below the previous swing low). This is expressed as close > (high + low) / 2 and low < low .
Sell Signal: A candle must close below its midpoint (bearish momentum) and have a higher high than the previous candle (indicating a potential liquidity grab above the previous swing high), expressed as close < (high + low) / 2 and high > high .
These conditions ensure the indicator targets candles that break recent structure to hunt stop losses while showing directional momentum.
Optional EMA Filter: A 50-period EMA (customizable) can be enabled to filter signals based on trend direction.
Buy signals are only generated if the EMA is trending upward (ema_value > ema_value ), and sell signals require a downward EMA trend (ema_value < ema_value ). This reduces noise by aligning entries with the broader market trend.
Liquidity Levels and Deletion Logic:
For a buy signal, a solid green line is drawn at the candle’s low, and a dotted green line at the 50% level of the lower wick (from the candle body’s bottom to the low).
For a sell signal, a solid red line is drawn at the candle’s high, and a dotted red line at the 50% level of the upper wick (from the body’s top to the high).
These lines extend to the right until the price crosses them, at which point they are deleted, indicating the liquidity at that level has been taken (e.g., stop losses triggered).
Alerts: The indicator includes alert conditions for buy and sell signals, notifying traders when a new setup is identified.
Underlying Concepts
The indicator is grounded in the concept of liquidity hunting, a strategy often employed by institutional traders. Markets frequently move to levels where stop losses are clustered—typically just beyond swing highs or lows—before reversing in the opposite direction. The "Enigma Sniper 369" targets these moves by identifying candles that break structure (e.g., a lower low or higher high) during high-volatility sessions, suggesting a potential sweep of stop losses. The 50% wick level acts as a secondary confirmation, as this midpoint often represents a zone where tighter stop losses are placed by retail traders. The optional EMA filter adds a trend-following element, ensuring entries are taken in the direction of the broader market momentum, which is particularly useful on lower timeframes like the 15-minute chart shown in the screenshots.
How to Use It
Here’s a step-by-step guide based on the provided usage example on the GBP/USD 15-minute chart:
Setup the Indicator: Add "Enigma Sniper 369" to your TradingView chart. Adjust the London and US session hours to match your timezone (e.g., London from 02:00 to 12:00 UTC, US from 13:00 to 22:00 UTC). Customize the EMA period (default 50) and line styles/colors if desired.
Identify Kill Zones: The indicator highlights the London session in light green and the US session in light purple, as seen in the screenshots. Focus on these periods for signals, as they are the most volatile and likely to produce liquidity grabs.
Wait for a Signal: Look for solid and dotted lines to appear during the kill zones:
Buy Setup: A solid green line at the swing low and a dotted green line at the 50% lower wick level indicate a potential buy. This suggests the market may have grabbed liquidity below the swing low and is now poised to move higher.
Sell Setup: A solid red line at the swing high and a dotted red line at the 50% upper wick level indicate a potential sell, suggesting liquidity was taken above the swing high.
Place Your Trade:
For a buy, set a buy limit order at the dotted green line (50% wick level), as this is a more conservative entry point. Place your stop loss just below the solid green line (swing low) to cover the full swing. For example, in the screenshots, the market retraces to the dotted line at 1.32980 after a liquidity grab below the swing low, triggering a buy limit order.
For a sell, set a sell limit order at the dotted red line, with a stop loss just above the solid red line.
Monitor Price Action: Once the price crosses a line, it is deleted, indicating the liquidity at that level has been taken. In the screenshots, after the buy limit is triggered, the market moves higher, confirming the setup. The caption notes, “The market returns and tags us in long with a buy limit,” highlighting this retracement strategy.
Additional Context: Use the indicator to identify liquidity levels that may be targeted later. For example, the screenshot notes, “If a new session is about to open I will wait for the grab liquidity to go long,” showing how the indicator can be used to anticipate future moves at session opens (e.g., London open at 1.32980).
Risk Management: Always set a stop loss below the swing low (for buys) or above the swing high (for sells) to protect against adverse moves. The 50% wick level helps tighten entries, improving the risk-reward ratio.
Practical Example
On the GBP/USD 15-minute chart, during the London session (02:00 UTC), the indicator identifies a buy setup with a solid green line at 1.32901 (swing low) and a dotted green line at 1.32980 (50% wick level). The market initially dips below the swing low, grabbing liquidity, then retraces to the dotted line, triggering a buy limit order. The price subsequently rises to 1.33404, yielding a profitable trade. The user notes, “The logic is in the last candle it provides new level to go long,” emphasizing the indicator’s ability to identify fresh levels after a liquidity sweep.
Customization Tips
Adjust the EMA period to suit your timeframe (e.g., a shorter period like 20 for faster signals on lower timeframes).
Modify the session hours to align with your broker’s timezone or specific market conditions.
Use the alert feature to get notified of new setups without constantly monitoring the chart.
Why It’s Useful for Traders
The "Enigma Sniper 369" stands out by combining session timing, momentum-based candle analysis, and liquidity hunting into a single tool. It provides clear, actionable levels for entries and stop losses, removes invalid signals dynamically, and aligns trades with high-probability market conditions. Whether you’re a scalper looking for quick moves during London open or a swing trader targeting session-based reversals, this indicator offers a structured, data-driven approach to trading.
IU Mean Reversion SystemDESCRIPTION
The IU Mean Reversion System is a dynamic mean reversion-based trading framework designed to identify optimal reversal zones using a smoothed mean and a volatility-adjusted band. This system captures price extremes by combining exponential and running moving averages with the Average True Range (ATR), effectively identifying overextended price action that is likely to revert back to its mean. It provides precise long and short entries with corresponding exit conditions, making it ideal for range-bound markets or phases of low volatility.
USER INPUTS :
Mean Length – Controls the smoothness of the mean; default is 9.
ATR Length – Defines the lookback period for ATR-based band calculation; default is 100.
Multiplier – Determines how wide the upper and lower bands are from the mean; default is 3.
LONG CONDITION :
A long entry is triggered when the closing price crosses above the lower band, indicating a potential upward mean reversion.
A position is taken only if there is no active long position already.
SHORT CONDITION :
A short entry is triggered when the closing price crosses below the upper band, signaling a potential downward mean reversion.
A position is taken only if there is no active short position already.
LONG EXIT :
A long position exits when the high price crosses above the mean, implying that price has reverted back to its average and may no longer offer favorable long risk-reward.
SHORT EXIT :
A short position exits when the low price crosses below the mean, indicating the mean reversion has occurred and the downside opportunity has likely played out.
WHY IT IS UNIQUE:
Uses a double smoothing approach (EMA + RMA) to define a stable mean, reducing noise and false signals.
Adapts dynamically to volatility using ATR-based bands, allowing it to handle different market conditions effectively.
Implements a state-aware entry system using persistent variables, avoiding redundant entries and improving clarity.
The logic is clear, concise, and modular, making it easy to modify or integrate with other systems.
HOW USER CAN BENEFIT FROM IT :
Traders can easily identify reversion opportunities in sideways or mean-reverting environments.
Entry and exit points are visually labeled on the chart, aiding in clarity and trade review.
Helps maintain discipline and consistency by using a rule-based framework instead of subjective judgment.
Can be combined with other trend filters, momentum indicators, or higher time frame context for enhanced results.
ADX Forecast [Titans_Invest]ADX Forecast
This isn’t just another ADX indicator — it’s the most powerful and complete ADX tool ever created, and without question the best ADX indicator on TradingView, possibly even the best in the world.
ADX Forecast represents a revolutionary leap in trend strength analysis, blending the timeless principles of the classic ADX with cutting-edge predictive modeling. For the first time on TradingView, you can anticipate future ADX movements using scientifically validated linear regression — a true game-changer for traders looking to stay ahead of trend shifts.
1. Real-Time ADX Forecasting
By applying least squares linear regression, ADX Forecast projects the future trajectory of the ADX with exceptional accuracy. This forecasting power enables traders to anticipate changes in trend strength before they fully unfold — a vital edge in fast-moving markets.
2. Unmatched Customization & Precision
With 26 long entry conditions and 26 short entry conditions, this indicator accounts for every possible ADX scenario. Every parameter is fully customizable, making it adaptable to any trading strategy — from scalping to swing trading to long-term investing.
3. Transparency & Advanced Visualization
Visualize internal ADX dynamics in real time with interactive tags, smart flags, and fully adjustable threshold levels. Every signal is transparent, logic-based, and engineered to fit seamlessly into professional-grade trading systems.
4. Scientific Foundation, Elite Execution
Grounded in statistical precision and machine learning principles, ADX Forecast upgrades the classic ADX from a reactive lagging tool into a forward-looking trend prediction engine. This isn’t just an indicator — it’s a scientific evolution in trend analysis.
⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION
Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥.
The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by:
y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
β₁ = Σ((xᵢ - x̄)(yᵢ - ȳ)) / Σ((xᵢ - x̄)²)
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
y = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI)
x = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index)
β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0)
𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change)
ε = is the random error term
The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares.
⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas:
β₁ = /
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
∑ = sum
x̄ = mean of x
ȳ = mean of y
x_i, y_i = individual values of the variables.
Where:
x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively.
i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations.
These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity.
⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING
Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies.
By applying this model to the ADX, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis.
⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION
Imagine an ADX time series like this:
Time →
ADX →
The regression line will smooth these values and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted ADX, which can be crossed with the actual ADX to generate more intelligent signals.
⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED
Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line.
Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality.
Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values based on historical data.
Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs.
Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends.
⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY
Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference.
Unprecedented: First public ADX with least squares predictive modeling.
Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic.
Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals.
Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy.
⯁ CONCLUSION
By combining ADX with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it.
ADX Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology.
⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable:
⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ).
⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values using Matlab:
⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables.
⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function:
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🥇 This is the world’s first ADX indicator with: Linear Regression for Forecasting 🥇_______________________________________________________________________
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🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮
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Forecast Types:
• Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same.
• Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods.
Technical Information:
ta.linreg (built-in function)
Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values calculated using the least squares method on the source series.
Syntax:
• Function: ta.linreg()
Parameters:
• source: Source price series.
• length: Number of bars (period).
• offset: Offset.
• return: Linear regression curve.
This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values based on past statistical trends.
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⯁ WHAT IS THE ADX❓
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the strength of a trend in a market, regardless of whether the trend is up or down.
The ADX is an integral part of the Directional Movement System, which also includes the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and the Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). By combining these components, the ADX provides a comprehensive view of market trend strength.
⯁ HOW TO USE THE ADX❓
The ADX is calculated based on the moving average of the price range expansion over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and has three main zones:
• Strong Trend: When the ADX is above 25, indicating a strong trend.
• Weak Trend: When the ADX is below 20, indicating a weak or non-existent trend.
• Neutral Zone: Between 20 and 25, where the trend strength is unclear.
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⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS
The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal.
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🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈
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• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
🔹 +DI > -DI
🔹 +DI < -DI
🔹 +DI > ADX
🔹 +DI < ADX
🔹 -DI > ADX
🔹 -DI < ADX
🔹 ADX > Threshold
🔹 ADX < Threshold
🔹 +DI > Threshold
🔹 +DI < Threshold
🔹 -DI > Threshold
🔹 -DI < Threshold
🔹 +DI (Crossover) -DI
🔹 +DI (Crossunder) -DI
🔹 +DI (Crossover) ADX
🔹 +DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔹 +DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔹 +DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔹 -DI (Crossover) ADX
🔹 -DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔹 -DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔹 -DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔮 +DI (Crossover) -DI Forecast
🔮 +DI (Crossunder) -DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossover) +DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossunder) +DI Forecast
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🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉
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• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
🔸 +DI > -DI
🔸 +DI < -DI
🔸 +DI > ADX
🔸 +DI < ADX
🔸 -DI > ADX
🔸 -DI < ADX
🔸 ADX > Threshold
🔸 ADX < Threshold
🔸 +DI > Threshold
🔸 +DI < Threshold
🔸 -DI > Threshold
🔸 -DI < Threshold
🔸 +DI (Crossover) -DI
🔸 +DI (Crossunder) -DI
🔸 +DI (Crossover) ADX
🔸 +DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔸 +DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔸 +DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔸 -DI (Crossover) ADX
🔸 -DI (Crossunder) ADX
🔸 -DI (Crossover) Threshold
🔸 -DI (Crossunder) Threshold
🔮 +DI (Crossover) -DI Forecast
🔮 +DI (Crossunder) -DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossover) +DI Forecast
🔮 ADX (Crossunder) +DI Forecast
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🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖
• You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator.
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⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES
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Linear Regression: (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
Linear Regression (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Table of Conditions: BUY/SELL
Conditions Label: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the graph above: BUY/SELL
Automate & Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
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📜 SCRIPT : ADX Forecast
🎴 Art by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
👨💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤
✨ Enjoy!
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o Mission 🗺
• Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market.
o Vision 𐓏
• To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
Zweig Market Breadth Thrust Indicator+Trigger [LazyBear x rwak]The Breadth Thrust (BT) indicator is a market momentum indicator developed by Dr. Martin Zweig. According to Dr. Zweig, a Breadth Thrust occurs when, during a 10-day period, the Breadth Thrust indicator rises from below 40 percent to above 61.5 percent.
A "Thrust" indicates that the stock market has rapidly changed from an oversold condition to one of strength, but has not yet become overbought. This is very rare and has happened only a few times. Dr. Zweig also points out that most bull markets begin with a Breadth Thrust.
This version of the Breadth Thrust indicator includes a trigger visualized with red circles, making it easier to spot when the indicator crosses the critical 61.5% level, signaling potential bullish momentum.
All parameters are configurable. You can draw BT for NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX, or based on combined data (i.e., AMEX+NYSE+NASD). There is also a "CUSTOM" mode supported, so you can enter your own ADV/DEC symbols.
Credit: The original Breadth Thrust logic was created by LazyBear, whose public indicators can be found here , and app-store indicators here .
More info:
Definition of Breadth Thrust
A Breadth Thrust Signal
A Rare "Zweig" Buy Signal
Zweig Breadth Thrust: Redux
Frozen Bias Zones – Sentiment Lock-insOverview
The Frozen Bias Zones indicator visualizes market sentiment lock-ins using a combination of RSI, MACD, and OBV. It creates "bias zones" that indicate whether the market is in a sustained bullish or bearish phase. These zones are then highlighted on the chart, helping traders spot when the market is locked in a bias. The script also detects breakout events from these zones and marks them with clear labels for easier decision-making.
Features
Multi-Indicator Sentiment Analysis: Combines RSI, MACD, and OBV to detect synchronized bullish or bearish sentiment.
Frozen Bias Zones: Identifies and visually represents zones where the market has remained in a particular sentiment (bullish or bearish) for a defined period.
Breakout Alerts: Displays labels to indicate when the price breaks out of the established bias zone.
Customizable Inputs: Adjust the zone duration, RSI, MACD, and breakout label visibility.
Input Parameters
Bias Duration (biasLength)
The minimum number of candles the market must stay in a specific sentiment to consider it a "Frozen Bias Zone".
Default: 5 candles.
RSI Period (rsiPeriod)
Period for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculation.
Default: 14 periods.
MACD Settings
MACD Fast (macdFast): The fast-moving average period for the MACD calculation.
Default: 12.
MACD Slow (macdSlow): The slow-moving average period for the MACD calculation.
Default: 26.
MACD Signal (macdSig): The signal line period for MACD.
Default: 9.
Show Break Label (showBreakLabel)
Toggle to show labels when the price breaks out of the bias zone.
Default: True (shows label).
Bias Zone Colors
Bullish Bias Color (bullColor): The color for bullish zones (light green).
Bearish Bias Color (bearColor): The color for bearish zones (light red).
How It Works
This indicator analyzes three key market metrics to determine whether the market is in a bullish or bearish phase:
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI > 50 indicates a bullish phase, while RSI < 50 indicates a bearish phase.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
Measures the relationship between two moving averages of the price. A positive MACD histogram indicates bullish momentum, while a negative histogram indicates bearish momentum.
OBV (On-Balance Volume)
Uses volume flow to determine if a trend is likely to continue. A rising OBV indicates bullish accumulation, while a falling OBV indicates bearish distribution.
Bias Zone Detection
The market sentiment is considered bullish if all three indicators (RSI, MACD, and OBV) are bullish, and bearish if all three indicators are bearish.
Bullish Zone: A zone is created when the market sentiment remains bullish for the duration of the specified biasLength.
Bearish Zone: A zone is created when the market sentiment remains bearish for the duration of the specified biasLength.
These bias zones are visually represented on the chart as colored boxes (green for bullish, red for bearish).
Breakout Detection
The script automatically detects when the market exits a bias zone. If the price moves outside the bounds of the established zone (either up or down), the script will display one of the following labels:
Bias Break (Up): Indicates that the price has broken upwards out of the zone (with a green label).
Bias Break (Down): Indicates that the price has broken downwards out of the zone (with a red label).
These labels help traders easily identify potential breakout points.
Example Use Case
Bullish Market Conditions: If the RSI is above 50, the MACD histogram is positive, and OBV is increasing, the script will highlight a green bias zone. Traders can watch for potential bullish breakouts or trend continuation after the zone ends.
Bearish Market Conditions: If the RSI is below 50, the MACD histogram is negative, and OBV is decreasing, the script will highlight a red bias zone. Traders can look for potential bearish breakouts when the zone ends.
Conclusion
The Frozen Bias Zones indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to visualize prolonged market sentiment, whether bullish or bearish. By combining RSI, MACD, and OBV, it helps traders spot when the market is "locked in" to a bias. The breakout labels make it easier to take action when the price moves outside of the established zone, potentially signaling the start of a new trend.
Instructions
To use this script:
Add the Frozen Bias Zones indicator to your TradingView chart.
Adjust the input parameters to suit your trading strategy.
Observe the colored bias zones on your chart, along with breakout labels, to make informed decisions on trend continuation or reversal.
