True Range(TR) & ATR Combined – Volatility Strength IndicatorThis indicator combines True Range (TR) and Average True Range (ATR) into a single panel for a clearer understanding of price volatility.
True Range (TR) measures the absolute price movement between highs, lows, and previous closes — showing raw, unsmoothed volatility.
Average True Range (ATR) is a moving average of the True Range, providing a smoother, more stable volatility signal.
📊 Usage Tips:
High TR/ATR values indicate strong price movement or volatility expansion.
Low values suggest compression or a potential volatility breakout zone.
Can be used for stop-loss placement, volatility filters, or trend strength confirmation.
⚙️ Features:
Multiple smoothing methods: RMA, SMA, EMA, WMA.
Adjustable ATR length.
Separate colored plots for TR (yellow) and ATR (red).
Works across all timeframes and instruments.
Cari skrip untuk "Volatility"
Dynamic Volatility Channel (DVC) - Smooth
The indicator's adaptability comes from a unique blend of well-known concepts:
The Adaptive Engine (ADX): The indicator uses the Average Directional Index (ADX) in the background to analyze the strength of the trend. This acts as the "brain", telling the channel whether the market is trending strongly or moving sideways.
Hybrid Volatility: This is the core of the indicator. The width of the channel is determined by a weighted mix of two volatility measures:
In trending markets (high ADX), the channel gives more weight to the Average True Range (ATR).
In ranging markets (low ADX), the channel gives more weight to Standard Deviation.
Smooth Centerline (HMA): The channel is centered around a Hull Moving Average (HMA), which is known for its smoothness and reduced lag compared to other moving averages.
Advanced Smoothing Layers: This version includes dedicated smoothing for both the volatility components (ATR and StDev) and the logic that switches between regimes. This ensures the channel expands, contracts, and adapts in a very fluid manner, eliminating sudden jumps and reducing market noise.
Mean Reversion: In ranging markets (indicated by a flatter channel), the outer bands can act as dynamic support and resistance levels. Look for opportunities to sell near the upper band and buy near the lower band, always waiting for price action confirmation like reversal candles.
Trend Following: In strong trends (indicated by a steeply sloped channel), the centerline (HMA) often serves as a dynamic level of support (in an uptrend) or resistance (in a downtrend). Pullbacks to the centerline can present opportunities to join the trend. A "band ride," where price action consistently pushes against the upper or lower band, signals a very strong trend.
Volatility Analysis: A "squeeze," where the bands come very close together, indicates low volatility and can foreshadow a significant price breakout. A sudden expansion of the bands signals an increase in volatility and the potential start of a new, powerful move.
All core parameters are fully customizable to suit your trading style and preferred assets:
You can adjust the lengths for the HMA, ATR, StDev, and the ADX filter.
You can change the multipliers for the ATR and Standard Deviation components.
Crucially, you can control the Volatility Smoothing Length and Logic Smoothing Length to find the perfect balance between responsiveness and smoothness.
Disclaimer: This indicator is provided for educational and analytical purposes only. It is not financial advice, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and backtesting before risking capital in a live market.
Position Sizer by VolatilityDescription :
The **Position Sizer by Volatility (PSV)** is an indicator that helps traders determine what percentage of their deposit a position will occupy, taking into account the current market volatility. PSV calculates the range of price movements over recent periods and shows how large this movement is compared to historical data. The lower the value, the lower the volatility, and the smaller the stop-loss required relative to the current price.
Explanation of PSV Parameters:
- ` len ` (Period Length):** This parameter sets the number of candles (bars) on the chart that will be used to calculate volatility. For example, if `len` is set to 250, the indicator will analyze price movements over the last 250 bars. The larger the value, the longer the period used for volatility assessment.
- ` percent ` (Percentile):** This parameter determines how strong price fluctuations you want to account for. For instance, if you set `percent` to 95, the indicator will focus on the 5% of instances where the price range was the largest over the specified period. This helps evaluate volatility during periods of sharp price movements, which may require a larger stop-loss. A higher percentile accounts for rarer but stronger movements, and vice versa.
Advanced Volatility Oscillator with SignalsTitle: Advanced Volatility Oscillator with Signals (AVO-S)
In-Depth Description:
Introduction:
The Advanced Volatility Oscillator with Signals (AVO-S) is designed to offer traders a nuanced understanding of market volatility, combining traditional concepts with innovative visual aids and signal interpretation. This indicator is tailored for diverse financial markets, helping to identify potential trend reversals and momentum shifts.
Calculation and Methodology:
Spike Calculation: The core of AVO-S is the 'spike', calculated as the difference between the closing and opening prices (spike = close - open). This measure provides a straightforward gauge of intra-period volatility.
Standard Deviation: The indicator employs standard deviation to assess the variability of the 'spike', offering a dynamic threshold for understanding market extremities (stdDev = stdev(spike, length)).
Colored Columns: These columns visually represent the 'spike'. Their color changes based on the spike’s value relative to the zero line and the standard deviation threshold, providing an immediate visual cue of market state.
Blue Columns: Indicate moderate positive movement when the spike is above zero but below the standard deviation.
Green and Red Columns: Suggest stronger bullish (above standard deviation) and bearish (below negative standard deviation) movements, respectively.
Bullish and Bearish Signals:
The indicator generates signals based on the relationship between the 'spike' and its standard deviation.
Bullish Signals: Shown as upward triangles, these are formed when the 'spike' crosses above the standard deviation, indicating potential upward momentum.
Bearish Signals: Represented by downward triangles, these signals are generated when the 'spike' falls below the negative standard deviation, hinting at potential downward trends.
Usage and Application:
Traders can use the colored columns to quickly assess market sentiment and volatility.
The bullish and bearish signals serve as potential indicators for market entry or exit points, or for further analysis in conjunction with other technical tools.
Inspiration and Credits:
Inspired by Veryfid's original Volatility Oscillator, the AVO-S refines and builds upon these ideas to provide a comprehensive and user-friendly tool for market analysis. This indicator is a testament to the continuous evolution of technical analysis tools in the trading community.
Natenberg's VolatilityThis indicator is historical volatility indicator created by Sheldon Natenberg , as the standard deviation of the logarithmic price changes measured at regular intervals of time.
In Mr. Natenberg's book, Option Volatility & Pricing, he covers volatility in detail and gives the formula for computing historical volatility.
My changes :
I didn't changed formula, i just added smooth version of volatility it can be used as trigger when cross(over/under) non-smoothed volatility.
Note:
There is two formulas for daily and weekly. Indicator showing only daily formula !
Who wants to display the weekly formula change line 17, namely remove "//"
Enjoy!
Volatility/Volume ImpactWe often hear statements such as follow the big volume to project possible price movements. Or low volatility is good for trend. How much of it is statistically right for different markets. I wrote this small script to study the impact of Volatility and Volume on price movements.
Concept is as below:
Compare volume with a reference median value. You can also use moving average or other types for this comparison.
If volume is higher than median, increment positive value impact with change in close price. If volume is less than median, then increment negative value impact with change in close price.
With this we derive pvd and nvd which are measure of price change when volume is higher and lower respectively. pvd measures the price change when volume is higher than median whereas nvd measures price change when volume is lower than median.
Calculate correlation of pvd and nvd with close price to see what is impacting the price by higher extent.
Colors are applied to plots which have higher correlation to price movement. For example, if pvd has higher correlation to price movement, then pvd is coloured green whereas nvd is coloured silver. Similarly if nvd has higher correlation to price then nvd is coloured in red whereas pvd is coloured in silver.
Similar calculation also applied for volatility.
With this, you can observe how price change is correlated to high/low volume and volatility.
Let us see some examples on different markets.
Example 1: AMEX:SPY
From the chart snapshot below, it looks evident that SPY always thrive when there is low volatility and LOW VOLUME!!
Example 2: NASDAQ:TSLA
The picture will be different if you look at individual stocks. For Tesla, the price movement is more correlated to high volume (unlike SPY where low volume days define the trend)
Example 3: KUCOIN:BTCUSDT
Unlike stocks and indices, high volatility defined the trend for BTC for long time. It thrived when volatility is more. We can see that high volume is still major influencer in BTC price movements.
Settings are very simple and self explanatory.
Hint: You can also move the indicator to chart overlay for better visualisation of comparison with close price.
Volatility Stop Flow [AR]The indicator is designed to scan cross multiple timeframes and display the Volatility Stop Value.
Realized Volatility IIR Filters with BandsDISCLAIMER:
The Following indicator/code IS NOT intended to be a formal investment advice or recommendation by the author, nor should be construed as such. Users will be fully responsible by their use regarding their own trading vehicles/assets.
The following indicator was made for NON LUCRATIVE ACTIVITIES and must remain as is following TradingView's regulations. Use of indicator and their code are published by Invitation Only for work and knowledge sharing. All access granted over it, their use, copy or re-use should mention authorship(s) and origin(s).
WARNING NOTICE!
THE INCLUDED FUNCTION MUST BE CONSIDERED AS TESTING. The models included in the indicator have been taken from open sources on the web and some of them has been modified by the author, problems could occur at diverse data sceneries.
WHAT'S THIS...?
Work derived by previous own research for study:
This is mainly an INFINITE IMPULSE RESPONSE FILTERING INDICATOR , it's purpose is to catch trend given by the nature of lag given by a VOLATILITY ESTIMATION ALGORITHM as it's coefficient. It provides as well an INFINITE IMPULSE RESPONSE DEVIATION FILTER that uses the same coefficients of the main filter to plot deviation bands as an auxiliary tool.
The given Filter based indicator provides my own Multi Volatility-Estimators Function with only 3 models:
ELASTIC VOLUME WEIGHTED VOLATILITY : This is a Modified Daigler & Padungsaksawasdi "Volume Weighted Volatility" as on DOI: 10.1504/IJBAAF.2018.089423 but with Elastic Volume Weighted Moving Average instead of VWAP (intraday) for faster (but inaccurate) calculation. A future version is planned on the way using intra-bar inspection for intraday timeframe as described in original paper.
GARMAN & KLASS / YANG-ZANG EXTENSION : As one of the best range based (OHLC) with open gaps inclusion in a single bar.
PETER MARTIN'S ULCER INDEX : This is a better approach to measure realized volatility than standard deviation of log returns given it's proven convex risk metric for DrawDowns as shown in Chekhlov et al. (2005) . Regarding this particular model, I take a different approach to use it as coefficient feed: Given that the UI only takes in consideration DrawDawns, I code myself the inverse of this to compute Draw-Ups as well and use both of them to filter minimums volatility levels in order to create a SLOW version of the IIR filter, and maximums of both to calculate as FAST variation. This approach can be used as a better proxy instead of any other common moving average given that with NO COMPOUND IN TIME AT ALL (N=1) or only using as long as N=3 bars of compund, the filter can catch a trend easily, making the indicator nearly a NON PARAMETRIC FILTER.
NOTES:
This version DO NOT INCLUDE ALERTS.
This version DO NOT INCLUDE STRATEGY: ALL Feedback welcome.
DERIVED WORK:
Incremental calculation of weighted mean and variance by Tony Finch (fanf2@cam. ac .uk) (dot@dotat.at), 2009.
Volume weighted volatility: empirical evidence for a new realised volatility measure by Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Robert T. Daigler, 2018.
Basic DSP Tips & Trics by TradingView user @alexgrover
CHEERS!
@XeL_Arjona 2020.
historical volatility by flashThe script is made to help to determine OPTIONS volatility.
The Script is showing the Historical volatility of any stock for its last 1 year data.
Historical volatility is important to know how stock can perform in panic days.
Historical volatility is best used with Implied volatility.
How to Interpret the Script or How to use it?
The Script show 5 parts the lowermost is lowest HV in last year & the highest part shows highest volatility in the past 1 year.
Use this on a DAILY CHART only.
Now Take the IV (implied volatility of stock) and put that figure in between the HV and check in which part current IV resides. based on that you can determine how OPTIONS premium or how much it INFLATED or DEFLATED .
Volatility Adjusted Profit Target
In my 'Volatility Adjusted Profit Target' indicator, I've crafted a dynamic tool for calculating target profit percentages suitable for both long and short trading strategies. It evaluates the highest and lowest prices over the anticipated duration of your trade, establishing a profit target that shifts with market volatility. As volatility increases, the potential for profit follows, with the target percentage rising accordingly; conversely, it declines with decreasing volatility. As a trader, setting an optimal Take Profit level has always been a challenge. This indicator not only helps in determining that level but also dynamically adjusts it throughout the trade's duration, providing a strategic edge in volatile markets.
Implied Volatility PercentileThis script calculates the Implied Volatility (IV) based on the daily returns of price using a standard deviation. It then annualizes the 30 day average to create the historical Implied Volatility. This indicator is intended to measure the IV for options traders but could also provide information for equities traders to show how price is extended in the expected price range based on the historical volatility.
The IV Rank (Green line) is then calculated by looking at the high and low volatility over the number of days back specified in the input parameter, default is 252 (trading days in 1 year) and then calculating the rank of the current IV compared to the High and Low. This is not as reliable as the IV Percentile as the and extreme high or low could have a side effect on the ranking but it is included for those that want to use.
The IV Percentile is calculated by counting the number of days below the current IV, then returns this as a % of the days back in the input
You can adjust the number of days back to check the IV Rank & IV Percentile if you are not wanting to look back a whole year.
This will only work on Daily or higher timeframe charts.
PpSignal Composit Fractal volatilityThis strategy is based on a mix of indicators. Institutional trades enter the market following the rule: trend, volatility and volume.
If we want to find the trend it is necessary to use the CFB composite fractal behavor, you can look for it within my indicators the explanation. the CFB will be in charge of finding the right trend. if we have the tendency in hand we go to look for volatility.
Volatility is a cyclical effect, caused mainly by the aggressive entry or aggressive exit of money in the market or what is the same, by fear or enthusiasm.
The changes in the perspective of the participants caused by news, crisis, natural disasters or simply by the entry or exit of large capitals, will cause the price to move quickly in short periods of time.
example, if we are in the 1h chart and the closing price of the daily bar is higher than the opening price and this is accompanied by volatility we have a greater probability of entering at the right time.
For this we use standard deviation, atr and W% smoothing.
Once all this information is aligned we have a correct entry with trend and volatility.
We leave when the price is inside the band atr.
the system also has different individual alerts such as ATR, kc channel, open close mtf bar, w%, cfb.
I recommend that you look for your best strategy according to the instument that you wish to trade.
Buy = when the cfb show buy signal and the price is above the atr.
sell = when the cfb show sell signal when the price is below the lower band of atr.
inside = exit.
JPMorgan G7 Volatility IndexThe JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index: Scientific Analysis and Professional Applications
Introduction
The JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index (G7VOL) represents a sophisticated metric for monitoring currency market volatility across major developed economies. This indicator functions as an approximation of JPMorgan's proprietary volatility indices, providing traders and investors with a normalized measurement of cross-currency volatility conditions (Clark, 2019).
Theoretical Foundation
Currency volatility is fundamentally defined as "the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index" (Hull, 2018, p.127). In the context of G7 currencies, this volatility measurement becomes particularly significant due to the economic importance of these nations, which collectively represent more than 50% of global nominal GDP (IMF, 2022).
According to Menkhoff et al. (2012, p.685), "currency volatility serves as a global risk factor that affects expected returns across different asset classes." This finding underscores the importance of monitoring G7 currency volatility as a proxy for global financial conditions.
Methodology
The G7VOL indicator employs a multi-step calculation process:
Individual volatility calculation for seven major currency pairs using standard deviation normalized by price (Lo, 2002)
- Weighted-average combination of these volatilities to form a composite index
- Normalization against historical bands to create a standardized scale
- Visual representation through dynamic coloring that reflects current market conditions
The mathematical foundation follows the volatility calculation methodology proposed by Bollerslev et al. (2018):
Volatility = σ(returns) / price × 100
Where σ represents standard deviation calculated over a specified timeframe, typically 20 periods as recommended by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, 2020).
Professional Applications
Professional traders and institutional investors employ the G7VOL indicator in several key ways:
1. Risk Management Signaling
According to research by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016), elevated currency volatility often precedes broader market stress. When the G7VOL breaches its high volatility threshold (typically 1.5 times the 100-period average), portfolio managers frequently reduce risk exposure across asset classes. As noted by Borio (2019, p.17), "currency volatility spikes have historically preceded equity market corrections by 2-7 trading days."
2. Counter-Cyclical Investment Strategy
Low G7 volatility periods (readings below the lower band) tend to coincide with what Shin (2017) describes as "risk-on" environments. Professional investors often use these signals to increase allocations to higher-beta assets and emerging markets. Campbell et al. (2021) found that G7 volatility in the lowest quintile historically preceded emerging market outperformance by an average of 3.7% over subsequent quarters.
3. Regime Identification
The normalized volatility framework enables identification of distinct market regimes:
- Readings above 1.0: Crisis/high volatility regime
- Readings between -0.5 and 0.5: Normal volatility regime
- Readings below -1.0: Unusually calm markets
According to Rey (2015), these regimes have significant implications for global monetary policy transmission mechanisms and cross-border capital flows.
Interpretation and Trading Applications
G7 currency volatility serves as a barometer for global financial conditions due to these currencies' centrality in international trade and reserve status. As noted by Gagnon and Ihrig (2021, p.423), "G7 currency volatility captures both trade-related uncertainty and broader financial market risk appetites."
Professional traders apply this indicator in multiple contexts:
- Leading indicator: Research from the Federal Reserve Board (Powell, 2020) suggests G7 volatility often leads VIX movements by 1-3 days, providing advance warning of broader market volatility.
- Correlation shifts: During periods of elevated G7 volatility, cross-asset correlations typically increase what Brunnermeier and Pedersen (2009) term "correlation breakdown during stress periods." This phenomenon informs portfolio diversification strategies.
- Carry trade timing: Currency carry strategies perform best during low volatility regimes as documented by Lustig et al. (2011). The G7VOL indicator provides objective thresholds for initiating or exiting such positions.
References
Adrian, T. and Brunnermeier, M.K. (2016) 'CoVaR', American Economic Review, 106(7), pp.1705-1741.
Bank for International Settlements (2020) Monitoring Volatility in Foreign Exchange Markets. BIS Quarterly Review, December 2020.
Bollerslev, T., Patton, A.J. and Quaedvlieg, R. (2018) 'Modeling and forecasting (un)reliable realized volatilities', Journal of Econometrics, 204(1), pp.112-130.
Borio, C. (2019) 'Monetary policy in the grip of a pincer movement', BIS Working Papers, No. 706.
Brunnermeier, M.K. and Pedersen, L.H. (2009) 'Market liquidity and funding liquidity', Review of Financial Studies, 22(6), pp.2201-2238.
Campbell, J.Y., Sunderam, A. and Viceira, L.M. (2021) 'Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds', Critical Finance Review, 10(2), pp.303-336.
Clark, J. (2019) 'Currency Volatility and Macro Fundamentals', JPMorgan Global FX Research Quarterly, Fall 2019.
Gagnon, J.E. and Ihrig, J. (2021) 'What drives foreign exchange markets?', International Finance, 24(3), pp.414-428.
Hull, J.C. (2018) Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives. 10th edn. London: Pearson.
International Monetary Fund (2022) World Economic Outlook Database. Washington, DC: IMF.
Lo, A.W. (2002) 'The statistics of Sharpe ratios', Financial Analysts Journal, 58(4), pp.36-52.
Lustig, H., Roussanov, N. and Verdelhan, A. (2011) 'Common risk factors in currency markets', Review of Financial Studies, 24(11), pp.3731-3777.
Menkhoff, L., Sarno, L., Schmeling, M. and Schrimpf, A. (2012) 'Carry trades and global foreign exchange volatility', Journal of Finance, 67(2), pp.681-718.
Powell, J. (2020) Monetary Policy and Price Stability. Speech at Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, August 27, 2020.
Rey, H. (2015) 'Dilemma not trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence', NBER Working Paper No. 21162.
Shin, H.S. (2017) 'The bank/capital markets nexus goes global', Bank for International Settlements Speech, January 15, 2017.
Momentum-Adjusted Volatility Ratio (MAVR)The Momentum-Adjusted Volatility Ratio (MAVR) indicator is designed to help you understand the strength of price movements relative to the market's volatility. It combines the concepts of rate of change (ROC) and average true range (ATR) and then calculates their ratio, which is then smoothed using an exponential moving average (EMA). Here's a general guide on how to use the MAVR indicator:
Identify the trend: Look for the overall direction of the EMA of the MAVR. When the EMA is above the zero line, it indicates that the momentum is positive and the trend is generally bullish. Conversely, when the EMA is below the zero line, it indicates that the momentum is negative, and the trend is generally bearish.
Assess momentum strength: Pay attention to the distance between the EMA of the MAVR and the zero line. A larger distance indicates a stronger momentum, while a smaller distance suggests weaker momentum. If the EMA of the MAVR moves further away from the zero line, it indicates that the price movement is becoming more robust relative to the market's volatility.
Look for potential entry and exit signals: When the EMA of the MAVR crosses the zero line, it could provide a potential trading signal. For instance, a cross from below to above the zero line may indicate a potential buying opportunity, while a cross from above to below the zero line may signal a potential selling opportunity. Keep in mind that the MAVR indicator should not be used in isolation, and it's essential to combine it with other technical analysis tools and risk management techniques.
Monitor for divergences: Sometimes, the price and the EMA of the MAVR can show divergences. For example, if the price makes a higher high while the EMA of the MAVR makes a lower high, it could signal a bearish divergence, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Similarly, if the price makes a lower low while the EMA of the MAVR makes a higher low, it could indicate a bullish divergence, suggesting a possible trend reversal.
Remember that no indicator is perfect, and the MAVR should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and a solid trading strategy to increase the chances of success. Always use proper risk management techniques to protect your capital.
Volatility Adjusted Moving Average - JD@version=3
This indicator gives an adjusted moving average, based on the volatility of the past x amount of bars, measured against the ema of a certain length.
The idea came out of my VA adjusted Bands indicator where the VAMA is actually the center line.
I scripted the moving average as a function so it is easy to inport into other scripts,
Feel free to use it in your scripts and experiment with it,
of cousre, if you want to publish your script, a little mention in the notes is always appreciated.
At first view I might add some smoothing otions and
a couple of different ma options as a base anchor in future releases.
If you have any other ideas for further development,... let me know!!
JD.
#NotTradingAdvice #DYOR
I build these indicators for myself and provide them open source, to use for free to use and improve upon,
as I believe the best way to learn is toghether.
Volatility-Targeted Momentum Portfolio [BackQuant]Volatility-Targeted Momentum Portfolio
A complete momentum portfolio engine that ranks assets, targets a user-defined volatility, builds long, short, or delta-neutral books, and reports performance with metrics, attribution, Monte Carlo scenarios, allocation pie, and efficiency scatter plots. This description explains the theory and the mechanics so you can configure, validate, and deploy it with intent.
Table of contents
What the script does at a glance
Momentum, what it is, how to know if it is present
Volatility targeting, why and how it is done here
Portfolio construction modes: Long Only, Short Only, Delta Neutral
Regime filter and when the strategy goes to cash
Transaction cost modelling in this script
Backtest metrics and definitions
Performance attribution chart
Monte Carlo simulation
Scatter plot analysis modes
Asset allocation pie chart
Inputs, presets, and deployment checklist
Suggested workflow
1) What the script does at a glance
Pulls a list of up to 15 tickers, computes a simple momentum score on each over a configurable lookback, then volatility-scales their bar-to-bar return stream to a target annualized volatility.
Ranks assets by raw momentum, selects the top 3 and bottom 3, builds positions according to the chosen mode, and gates exposure with a fast regime filter.
Accumulates a portfolio equity curve with risk and performance metrics, optional benchmark buy-and-hold for comparison, and a full alert suite.
Adds visual diagnostics: performance attribution bars, Monte Carlo forward paths, an allocation pie, and scatter plots for risk-return and factor views.
2) Momentum: definition, detection, and validation
Momentum is the tendency of assets that have performed well to continue to perform well, and of underperformers to continue underperforming, over a specific horizon. You operationalize it by selecting a horizon, defining a signal, ranking assets, and trading the leaders versus laggards subject to risk constraints.
Signal choices . Common signals include cumulative return over a lookback window, regression slope on log-price, or normalized rate-of-change. This script uses cumulative return over lookback bars for ranking (variable cr = price/price - 1). It keeps the ranking simple and lets volatility targeting handle risk normalization.
How to know momentum is present .
Leaders and laggards persist across adjacent windows rather than flipping every bar.
Spread between average momentum of leaders and laggards is materially positive in sample.
Cross-sectional dispersion is non-trivial. If everything is flat or highly correlated with no separation, momentum selection will be weak.
Your validation should include a diagnostic that measures whether returns are explained by a momentum regression on the timeseries.
Recommended diagnostic tool . Before running any momentum portfolio, verify that a timeseries exhibits stable directional drift. Use this indicator as a pre-check: It fits a regression to price, exposes slope and goodness-of-fit style context, and helps confirm if there is usable momentum before you force a ranking into a flat regime.
3) Volatility targeting: purpose and implementation here
Purpose . Volatility targeting seeks a more stable risk footprint. High-vol assets get sized down, low-vol assets get sized up, so each contributes more evenly to total risk.
Computation in this script (per asset, rolling):
Return series ret = log(price/price ).
Annualized volatility estimate vol = stdev(ret, lookback) * sqrt(tradingdays).
Leverage multiplier volMult = clamp(targetVol / vol, 0.1, 5.0).
This caps sizing so extremely low-vol assets don’t explode weight and extremely high-vol assets don’t go to zero.
Scaled return stream sr = ret * volMult. This is the per-bar, risk-adjusted building block used in the portfolio combinations.
Interpretation . You are not levering your account on the exchange, you are rescaling the contribution each asset’s daily move has on the modeled equity. In live trading you would reflect this with position sizing or notional exposure.
4) Portfolio construction modes
Cross-sectional ranking . Assets are sorted by cr over the chosen lookback. Top and bottom indices are extracted without ties.
Long Only . Averages the volatility-scaled returns of the top 3 assets: avgRet = mean(sr_top1, sr_top2, sr_top3). Position table shows per-asset leverages and weights proportional to their current volMult.
Short Only . Averages the negative of the volatility-scaled returns of the bottom 3: avgRet = mean(-sr_bot1, -sr_bot2, -sr_bot3). Position table shows short legs.
Delta Neutral . Long the top 3 and short the bottom 3 in equal book sizes. Each side is sized to 50 percent notional internally, with weights within each side proportional to volMult. The return stream mixes the two sides: avgRet = mean(sr_top1,sr_top2,sr_top3, -sr_bot1,-sr_bot2,-sr_bot3).
Notes .
The selection metric is raw momentum, the execution stream is volatility-scaled returns. This separation is deliberate. It avoids letting volatility dominate ranking while still enforcing risk parity at the return contribution stage.
If everything rallies together and dispersion collapses, Long Only may behave like a single beta. Delta Neutral is designed to extract cross-sectional momentum with low net beta.
5) Regime filter
A fast EMA(12) vs EMA(21) filter gates exposure.
Long Only active when EMA12 > EMA21. Otherwise the book is set to cash.
Short Only active when EMA12 < EMA21. Otherwise cash.
Delta Neutral is always active.
This prevents taking long momentum entries during obvious local downtrends and vice versa for shorts. When the filter is false, equity is held flat for that bar.
6) Transaction cost modelling
There are two cost touchpoints in the script.
Per-bar drag . When the regime filter is active, the per-bar return is reduced by fee_rate * avgRet inside netRet = avgRet - (fee_rate * avgRet). This models proportional friction relative to traded impact on that bar.
Turnover-linked fee . The script tracks changes in membership of the top and bottom baskets (top1..top3, bot1..bot3). The intent is to charge fees when composition changes. The template counts changes and scales a fee by change count divided by 6 for the six slots.
Use case: increase fee_rate to reflect taker fees and slippage if you rebalance every bar or trade illiquid assets. Reduce it if you rebalance less often or use maker orders.
Practical advice .
If you rebalance daily, start with 5–20 bps round-trip per switch on liquid futures and adjust per venue.
For crypto perp microcaps, stress higher cost assumptions and add slippage buffers.
If you only rotate on lookback boundaries or at signals, use alert-driven rebalances and lower per-bar drag.
7) Backtest metrics and definitions
The script computes a standard set of portfolio statistics once the start date is reached.
Net Profit percent over the full test.
Max Drawdown percent, tracked from running peaks.
Annualized Mean and Stdev using the chosen trading day count.
Variance is the square of annualized stdev.
Sharpe uses daily mean adjusted by risk-free rate and annualized.
Sortino uses downside stdev only.
Omega ratio of sum of gains to sum of losses.
Gain-to-Pain total gains divided by total losses absolute.
CAGR compounded annual growth from start date to now.
Alpha, Beta versus a user-selected benchmark. Beta from covariance of daily returns, Alpha from CAPM.
Skewness of daily returns.
VaR 95 linear-interpolated 5th percentile of daily returns.
CVaR average of the worst 5 percent of daily returns.
Benchmark Buy-and-Hold equity path for comparison.
8) Performance attribution
Cumulative contribution per asset, adjusted for whether it was held long or short and for its volatility multiplier, aggregated across the backtest. You can filter to winners only or show both sides. The panel is sorted by contribution and includes percent labels.
9) Monte Carlo simulation
The panel draws forward equity paths from either a Normal model parameterized by recent mean and stdev, or non-parametric bootstrap of recent daily returns. You control the sample length, number of simulations, forecast horizon, visibility of individual paths, confidence bands, and a reproducible seed.
Normal uses Box-Muller with your seed. Good for quick, smooth envelopes.
Bootstrap resamples realized returns, preserving fat tails and volatility clustering better than a Gaussian assumption.
Bands show 10th, 25th, 75th, 90th percentiles and the path mean.
10) Scatter plot analysis
Four point-cloud modes, each plotting all assets and a star for the current portfolio position, with quadrant guides and labels.
Risk-Return Efficiency . X is risk proxy from leverage, Y is expected return from annualized momentum. The star shows the current book’s composite.
Momentum vs Volatility . Visualizes whether leaders are also high vol, a cue for turnover and cost expectations.
Beta vs Alpha . X is a beta proxy, Y is risk-adjusted excess return proxy. Useful to see if leaders are just beta.
Leverage vs Momentum . X is volMult, Y is momentum. Shows how volatility targeting is redistributing risk.
11) Asset allocation pie chart
Builds a wheel of current allocations.
Long Only, weights are proportional to each long asset’s current volMult and sum to 100 percent.
Short Only, weights show the short book as positive slices that sum to 100 percent.
Delta Neutral, 50 percent long and 50 percent short books, each side leverage-proportional.
Labels can show asset, percent, and current leverage.
12) Inputs and quick presets
Core
Portfolio Strategy . Long Only, Short Only, Delta Neutral.
Initial Capital . For equity scaling in the panel.
Trading Days/Year . 252 for stocks, 365 for crypto.
Target Volatility . Annualized, drives volMult.
Transaction Fees . Per-bar drag and composition change penalty, see the modelling notes above.
Momentum Lookback . Ranking horizon. Shorter is more reactive, longer is steadier.
Start Date . Ensure every symbol has data back to this date to avoid bias.
Benchmark . Used for alpha, beta, and B&H line.
Diagnostics
Metrics, Equity, B&H, Curve labels, Daily return line, Rolling drawdown fill.
Attribution panel. Toggle winners only to focus on what matters.
Monte Carlo mode with Normal or Bootstrap and confidence bands.
Scatter plot type and styling, labels, and portfolio star.
Pie chart and labels for current allocation.
Presets
Crypto Daily, Long Only . Lookback 25, Target Vol 50 percent, Fees 10 bps, Regime filter on, Metrics and Drawdown on. Monte Carlo Bootstrap with Recent 200 bars for bands.
Crypto Daily, Delta Neutral . Lookback 25, Target Vol 50 percent, Fees 15–25 bps, Regime filter always active for this mode. Use Scatter Risk-Return to monitor efficiency and keep the star near upper left quadrants without drifting rightward.
Equities Daily, Long Only . Lookback 60–120, Target Vol 15–20 percent, Fees 5–10 bps, Regime filter on. Use Benchmark SPX and watch Alpha and Beta to keep the book from becoming index beta.
13) Suggested workflow
Universe sanity check . Pick liquid tickers with stable data. Thin assets distort vol estimates and fees.
Check momentum existence . Run on your timeframe. If slope and fit are weak, widen lookback or avoid that asset or timeframe.
Set risk budget . Choose a target volatility that matches your drawdown tolerance. Higher target increases turnover and cost sensitivity.
Pick mode . Long Only for bull regimes, Short Only for sustained downtrends, Delta Neutral for cross-sectional harvesting when index direction is unclear.
Tune lookback . If leaders rotate too often, lengthen it. If entries lag, shorten it.
Validate cost assumptions . Increase fee_rate and stress Monte Carlo. If the edge vanishes with modest friction, refine selection or lengthen rebalance cadence.
Run attribution . Confirm the strategy’s winners align with intuition and not one unstable outlier.
Use alerts . Enable position change, drawdown, volatility breach, regime, momentum shift, and crash alerts to supervise live runs.
Important implementation details mapped to code
Momentum measure . cr = price / price - 1 per symbol for ranking. Simplicity helps avoid overfitting.
Volatility targeting . vol = stdev(log returns, lookback) * sqrt(tradingdays), volMult = clamp(targetVol / vol, 0.1, 5), sr = ret * volMult.
Selection . Extract indices for top1..top3 and bot1..bot3. The arrays rets, scRets, lev_vals, and ticks_arr track momentum, scaled returns, leverage multipliers, and display tickers respectively.
Regime filter . EMA12 vs EMA21 switch determines if the strategy takes risk for Long or Short modes. Delta Neutral ignores the gate.
Equity update . Equity multiplies by 1 + netRet only when the regime was active in the prior bar. Buy-and-hold benchmark is computed separately for comparison.
Tables . Position tables show current top or bottom assets with leverage and weights. Metric table prints all risk and performance figures.
Visualization panels . Attribution, Monte Carlo, scatter, and pie use the last bars to draw overlays that update as the backtest proceeds.
Final notes
Momentum is a portfolio effect. The edge comes from cross-sectional dispersion, adequate risk normalization, and disciplined turnover control, not from a single best asset call.
Volatility targeting stabilizes path but does not fix selection. Use the momentum regression link above to confirm structure exists before you size into it.
Always test higher lag costs and slippage, then recheck metrics, attribution, and Monte Carlo envelopes. If the edge persists under stress, you have something robust.
volatility-adjusted breakout envelopethis indicator is designed to help traders visually identify potential entry and exit points based on volatility-adjusted price thresholds. it works by calculating a dynamic expected price move around the previous close using historical volatility data smoothed by exponential moving averages to reduce noise and present a clear range boundary on the chart.
the indicator first computes the logarithmic returns over a user-defined lookback period and calculates the standard deviation of these returns, which represents raw volatility. it annualizes this volatility according to the chart timeframe selected, then uses it to estimate an expected price movement for the current timeframe. this expected move is smoothed to avoid sudden spikes or drops that could cause confusing signals.
using this expected move, the indicator generates two key threshold lines: an upper threshold and a lower threshold. these lines create a volatility-based range around the smoothed previous close price. the thresholds themselves are further smoothed with exponential moving averages to produce smooth, easy-to-interpret lines that adapt to changing market conditions without being choppy.
the core trading signals are generated when the price closes outside of these smoothed threshold ranges. specifically, a long entry signal is indicated when the price closes above the upper threshold for the first time, signaling potential upward momentum beyond normal volatility expectations. a short entry signal occurs when the price closes below the lower threshold for the first time, indicating potential downward momentum.
once an entry signal is triggered, the indicator waits for the price to close back inside the threshold range before signaling an exit. when this occurs, an exit marker is displayed to indicate that the price has returned within normal volatility bounds, which may suggest that the previous trend is losing strength or the breakout has ended.
these signals are visually represented on the chart using small shapes: triangles pointing upwards mark the initial long entries, triangles pointing downwards mark short entries, and x shapes mark the exits for both long and short positions. the colors of these shapes are customizable to suit user preferences.
to use this indicator effectively, traders should watch for the first close outside the smoothed volatility range to consider entering a position in the breakout direction. the exit signals help identify when price action reverts back into the expected range, which can be used to close or reduce the position. this method emphasizes trading breakouts supported by statistically significant moves relative to recent volatility while providing a clear exit discipline.
this indicator is best applied to intraday or daily charts with consistent volatility and volume characteristics. users should adjust the volatility lookback period, smoothing factor, and trading session times to match their specific market and trading style. because it relies on price volatility rather than fixed price levels, it can adapt to changing market conditions but should be combined with other analysis tools and proper risk management.
overall, this indicator provides a smoothed, dynamic volatility envelope with clear visual entry and exit cues based on first closes outside and back inside these envelopes, making it a helpful assistant for manual traders seeking to capture statistically significant breakouts while maintaining disciplined exits.
Volatility Gaussian Bands [BigBeluga]The Volatility Gaussian Bands indicator is a cutting-edge tool designed to analyze market trends and volatility with high precision. By applying a Gaussian filter to smooth price data and implementing dynamic bands based on market volatility, this indicator provides clear signals for trend direction, strength, and potential reversals. With updated volatility calculations, it enhances the accuracy of trend detection, making it a powerful addition to any trader's toolkit.
⮁ KEY FEATURES & USAGE
● Gaussian Filter Trend Bands:
The Gaussian Filter forms the foundation of this indicator by smoothing price data to reveal the underlying trend. The trend is visualized through upper and lower bands that adjust dynamically based on market volatility. These bands provide clear visual cues for traders: a crossover above the upper band indicates a potential uptrend, while a cross below the lower band signals a potential downtrend. This feature allows traders to identify trends with greater accuracy and act accordingly.
● Dynamic Trend Strength Gauges:
The indicator includes trend strength gauges positioned at the top and bottom of the chart. These gauges dynamically measure the strength of the uptrend and downtrend, based on the middle Gaussian line. Even if the trend is downward, a rising midline will cause the upward trend strength gauge to show an increase, offering a nuanced view of the market’s momentum.
Weakening of the trend:
● Fast Trend Change Indicators:
Triangles with a "+" symbol appear on the chart to signal rapid changes in trend direction. These indicators are particularly useful when the trend changes swiftly while the midline continues to grow in its previous direction. For instance, during a downtrend, if the trend suddenly shifts upward while the midline is still declining, a triangle with a "+" will indicate this quick reversal. This feature is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on rapid market movements.
● Retest Signals:
Retest signals, displayed as triangles, highlight potential areas where the price may retest the Gaussian line during a trend. These signals provide an additional layer of analysis, helping traders confirm trend continuations or identify possible reversals. The retest signals can be customized based on the trader’s preferences.
⮁ CUSTOMIZATION
● Length Adjustment:
The length of the Gaussian filter can be customized to control the sensitivity of trend detection. Shorter lengths make the indicator more responsive, while longer lengths offer a smoother, more stable trend line.
● Volatility Calculation Mode:
Traders can select from different modes (AVG, MEDIAN, MODE) to calculate the Gaussian filter, allowing for flexibility in how trends are detected and analyzed.
● Retest Signals Toggle:
Enable or disable the retest signals based on your trading strategy. This toggle allows traders to choose whether they want these additional signals to appear on the chart, providing more control over the information displayed during their analysis.
⮁ CONCLUSION
The Volatility Gaussian Bands indicator is a versatile and powerful tool for traders focused on trend and volatility analysis. By combining Gaussian-filtered trend lines with dynamic volatility bands, trend strength gauges, and rapid trend change indicators, this tool provides a comprehensive view of market conditions. Whether you are following established trends or looking to catch early reversals, the Volatility Gaussian Bands offers the precision and adaptability needed to enhance your trading strategy.
Volatility Trend Bands [UAlgo]The Volatility Trend Bands is a trend-following indicator that combines the concepts of volatility and trend detection. Built using the Average True Range (ATR) to measure volatility, this indicator dynamically adjusts upper and lower bands around price movements. The bands act as dynamic support and resistance levels, making it easier to identify trend shifts and potential entry and exit points.
With the ATR multiplier, this indicator effectively captures volatility-based shifts in the market. The use of midline values allows for accurate trend detection, which is displayed through color-coded signals on the chart. Additionally, this tool provides clear buy and sell signals, accompanied by intuitive graphical markers for ease of use.
The Volatility Trend Bands is ideal for traders seeking an adaptive trend-following method that responds to changing market conditions while maintaining robust volatility control.
🔶 Key Features
Dynamic Support and Resistance: The indicator utilizes volatility to create dynamic bands. The upper band acts as resistance, and the lower band acts as support for the price. Wider bands indicate higher volatility, while narrower bands indicate lower volatility.
Customizable Inputs
You can tailor the indicator to your strategy by adjusting the:
Price Source: Select the price data (e.g., closing price) used for calculations.
ATR Length: Define the lookback period for the Average True Range (ATR) volatility measure.
ATR Multiplier: This factor controls the width of the volatility bands relative to the ATR value.
Color Options: Choose colors for the bands and signal arrows for better visualization.
Visual Signals: Arrows ("▲" for buy, "▼" for sell) appear on the chart when the trend changes, providing clear entry point indications.
Alerts: Integrated alerts for both buy and sell conditions, allowing you to receive notifications for potential trade opportunities.
🔶 Interpreting Indicator
Upper and Lower Bands: The upper and lower bands are dynamic, adjusting based on market volatility using the ATR. These bands serve as adaptive support and resistance levels. When price breaks above the upper band, it indicates a potential bullish breakout, signaling a strong uptrend. Conversely, a break below the lower band signals a bearish breakout, indicating a downtrend.
Buy/Sell Signals: The indicator provides clear buy and sell signals at breakout points. A buy signal ("▲") is generated when the price breaks above the upper band, suggesting the start of a bullish trend. A sell signal ("▼") is triggered when the price breaks below the lower band, indicating the beginning of a bearish trend. These signals help traders identify potential entry and exit points at key breakout levels.
Color-Coded Bars: The bars on the chart change color based on the trend direction. Teal bars represent bullish momentum, while purple bars signify bearish momentum. This color coding provides a quick visual cue about the market's current direction.
🔶 Disclaimer
Use with Caution: This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Users should exercise caution and perform their own analysis before making trading decisions based on the indicator's signals.
Not Financial Advice: The information provided by this indicator does not constitute financial advice, and the creator (UAlgo) shall not be held responsible for any trading losses incurred as a result of using this indicator.
Backtesting Recommended: Traders are encouraged to backtest the indicator thoroughly on historical data before using it in live trading to assess its performance and suitability for their trading strategies.
Risk Management: Trading involves inherent risks, and users should implement proper risk management strategies, including but not limited to stop-loss orders and position sizing, to mitigate potential losses.
No Guarantees: The accuracy and reliability of the indicator's signals cannot be guaranteed, as they are based on historical price data and past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Volatility Volume IndicatorIntroducing the Volatility Volume Indicator (𝓥𝓥𝓘) , a sophisticated tool designed to provide traders and investors with deeper insights into market dynamics by analyzing the interplay between price movements and trading volume. This indicator, built with the latest Pine Script version 5, leverages advanced calculations to deliver a clear, visual representation of market volatility and volume trends. Whether you are a day trader looking for intraday opportunities or a long-term investor seeking to understand market behavior, the 𝓥𝓥𝓘 is an invaluable addition to your trading arsenal.
Explanation of the Logic
The Volatility Volume Indicator (𝓥𝓥𝓘) is constructed on a foundation of key market metrics: high, low, open, and close prices, along with volume data. It begins by breaking down each price bar into its upper, lower, and body components, which are then used to calculate the proportional contributions of these segments to the overall price movement. This analysis allows the indicator to distinguish between different types of price action, whether bullish or bearish.
Volume normalization is a crucial aspect of the 𝓥𝓥𝓘, where the current volume is compared against its exponential moving average to gauge relative volume strength. This normalized volume is then used to compute bullish and bearish volumes separately, providing a granular view of market sentiment. These volumes are smoothed over a specified period to reduce noise and highlight significant trends.
The volatility component of the 𝓥𝓥𝓘 is integrated by analyzing the relationship between price range and volume. The indicator calculates the range of each price bar (the difference between the high and low) and breaks it down into upper and lower segments relative to the open and close prices. By examining how much of the total price movement is due to the body of the candlestick versus the wicks, the 𝓥𝓥𝓘 can determine periods of high and low volatility. When combined with volume data, this approach provides a comprehensive view of how volatile price movements are supported or contradicted by trading volume.
The final output is a visual plot that color-codes the combined volume difference, offering clear signals based on the balance between bullish and bearish pressures. The bar coloring adds another layer of interpretation:
Bright Blue: Indicates strong volume and volatility to the upside, signaling robust bullish activity.
Dark Blue: Indicates weak volume and volatility to the upside, suggesting less intense bullish movements.
Dark Red: Indicates weak volume and volatility to the downside, pointing to subdued bearish activity.
Bright Red: Indicates strong volume and volatility to the downside, highlighting significant bearish pressure.
Use Cases for This Indicator in Trading and Investing
The 𝓥𝓥𝓘 is versatile and can be applied in various trading and investing scenarios. Day traders can use it to identify periods of high volatility and volume, which are often associated with potential breakout or breakdown points. By understanding the underlying volume dynamics, traders can make more informed decisions about entry and exit points, improving their chances of capturing significant price moves.
For swing traders and long-term investors, the 𝓥𝓥𝓘 helps in spotting sustained trends and potential reversals. By analyzing the cumulative bullish and bearish volumes, investors can better gauge market sentiment and the strength of ongoing trends. This can aid in confirming the viability of trend-following strategies or in identifying overbought or oversold conditions, thus enhancing risk management and strategic planning.
Main flaw :
Why Do I Keep It Closed Source
The decision to keep the Volatility Volume Indicator (𝓥𝓥𝓘) closed source stems from several important considerations. First and foremost, this indicator encapsulates a unique methodology and proprietary calculations that differentiate it from other tools available in the market. By keeping the source code private, we protect the intellectual property and maintain the competitive edge that this sophisticated analysis provides.
Additionally, a closed-source approach ensures that the integrity of the indicator remains intact. Users can trust that the 𝓥𝓥𝓘 they are using is free from unauthorized modifications or errors introduced by third-party alterations. This guarantees consistent performance and reliability, which is critical for making accurate trading and investing decisions. Finally, keeping the code closed source allows for controlled updates and enhancements, ensuring that users always have access to the most refined and effective version of the indicator.
Universal Volatility IndexThe Universal Volatility Index (UVI) is a robust indicator designed to gauge market volatility across various asset classes. By synthesizing multiple volatility measures, the UVI offers traders a nuanced understanding of market dynamics, aiding in the assessment of risk and the decision-making process.
How It Works:
The UVI incorporates three key components to calculate a composite volatility score:
Average True Range (ATR): This represents the average volatility over the specified period, giving a base measure of market movement.
Bollinger Bands Width: Highlights the expansion or contraction of price ranges, offering insights into market volatility relative to recent price action.
Rate of Change (ROC): Captures the momentum or the velocity of price changes, adding a temporal dimension to volatility assessment.
By combining these components, the UVI delivers a singular volatility metric that adapts to changing market conditions, providing a valuable tool for traders in any market.
Usage:
To apply the UVI to your chart, add the indicator from the Pine Script library and adjust the input parameters as desired.
The plot will display a line representing the composite volatility score, with higher values indicating increased market volatility and lower values suggesting calmer market conditions.
Benefits:
The UVI is versatile and can be applied to any market, making it a universal tool for traders.
The indicator helps in identifying periods of high risk where tighter risk management may be warranted.
It assists in pinpointing potential breakouts when volatility is expanding after a period of consolidation.
Compliance with TradingView House Rules:
This script is provided for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. It has been created to contribute to the TradingView community by offering a versatile tool that helps traders understand and navigate market volatility.
Normalized VolatilityOVERVIEW
The Normalized Volatility indicator is a technical indicator that gauges the amount of volatility currently present in the market, relative to the average volatility in the market. The purpose of this indicator is to filter out with-trend signals during ranging/non-trending/consolidating conditions.
CONCEPTS
This indicator assists traders in capitalizing on the assumption that trends are more likely to start during periods of high volatility compared to periods of low volatility. This is because high volatility indicates that there are bigger players currently in the market, which is necessary to begin a sustained trending move.
So, to determine whether the current volatility is "high", it is compared to an average volatility for however number of candles back the user specifies.
If the current volatility is greater than the average volatility, it is reasonable to assume we are in a high-volatility period. Thus, this is the ideal time to enter a trending trade due to the assumption that trends are more likely to start during these high-volatility periods.
HOW DO I READ THIS INDICATOR
When the column's color is red, don't take any trend trades since the current volatility is less than the average volatility experienced in the market.
When the column's color is green, take all valid with-trend trades since the current volatility is greater than the average volatility experienced in the market.
Alpha Trading - Alpha Volatility Zscore - Coder WolvesAlpha Trading Volatility Z-SCORE (AVZ)
Alpha Trading is a community built by traders, for traders. The development of our indicators follows this same premise. We make indicators that make trading more efficient. We are proud to bring you the Alpha Trading Volatility Z-Score (AVZ).
A Z-score is a numerical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. Z-score is measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. If a Z-score is 0, it indicates that the data point's score is identical to the mean score. A Z-score of 1.0 would indicate a value that is one standard deviation from the mean. Z-scores may be positive or negative, with a positive value indicating the score is above the mean and a negative score indicating it is below the mean.
At Alpha Trading, we are always pushing ourselves. We have deployed Z -Score to the Mean of Returns (Rather than Price) in some of our other indicators.
On the AVZ we have applied a Z-Score to the Historic Volatility (HV), as a volatility model for HV we used the sample standard deviation of log returns. We have also added R (Correlation Coefficient) which allows the trader to turn this into a directional indicator. Can be used in a similar way to indicators such as the Alpha Volatility Radar, and the Coefficient of Variation on the Wolfsbane indicator.
Z-Score Plot - On the Z-Score plot we have added color gradient. Color grading is based on, how near/far the Z Score is from the Standard Deviation bands. Regular Z-Score plot is 2 colors, Blue shows the Z-Score, Pink shows when there is a Statistical Outlier on the Z-Score.
R - For the R (Displayed in Columns by default), this shows the the correlation between the asset you are trading and the Z-Score of Historic Volatility. This allows us to use the Alpha Trading Volatility and Correlation Scenarios.
We have added a customizable Deviation band and 3 confidence intervals, 90%, 95%, and 99% as well.
Basic Trade Signals
Volatility and Correlation Scenarios
• AVZ expansion + positive correlation = pump
• AVZ expansion + negative correlation = dump
• AVZ contraction + positive correlation = price moves down
• AVZ contraction + negative correlation = price moves up
• AVZ sideways + positive correlation = price moves down
• AVZ sideways + negative correlation = price moves up
Long - When Z-Score moves to the upside, which shows there is Volatility expansion, and the R is positively correlated.
Short – When Z-Score moves to the upside, which shows there is Volatility expansion, and the R is negatively correlated.
Refer to the above Volatility and Correlation Scenarios for other movements.
1st chart shows AVZ on regular mode without color grading and AVZ in line form. Chart also shows AVZ occurrences and the PA movement associated with it.
2nd chart shown AVZ on color grading mode and AVZ in stepline with diamonds form.
