RSI Weighted Trend System I [InvestorUnknown]The RSI Weighted Trend System I is an experimental indicator designed to combine both slow-moving trend indicators for stable trend identification and fast-moving indicators to capture potential major turning points in the market. The novelty of this system lies in the dynamic weighting mechanism, where fast indicators receive weight based on the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) value, thus providing a flexible tool for traders seeking to adapt their strategies to varying market conditions.
Dynamic RSI-Based Weighting System
The core of the indicator is the dynamic weighting of fast indicators based on the value of the RSI. In essence, the higher the absolute value of the RSI (whether positive or negative), the higher the weight assigned to the fast indicators. This enables the system to capture rapid price movements around potential turning points.
Users can choose between a threshold-based or continuous weight system:
Threshold-Based Weighting: Fast indicators are activated only when the absolute RSI value exceeds a user-defined threshold. Below this threshold, fast indicators receive no weight.
Continuous Weighting: By setting the weight threshold to zero, the fast indicators always receive some weight, although this can result in more false signals in ranging markets.
// Calculate weight for Fast Indicators based on RSI (Slow Indicator weight is kept to 1 for simplicity)
f_RSI_Weight_System(series float rsi, simple float weight_thre) =>
float fast_weight = na
float slow_weight = na
if weight_thre > 0
if math.abs(rsi) <= weight_thre
fast_weight := 0
slow_weight := 1
else
fast_weight := 0 + math.sqrt(math.abs(rsi))
slow_weight := 1
else
fast_weight := 0 + math.sqrt(math.abs(rsi))
slow_weight := 1
Slow and Fast Indicators
Slow Indicators are designed to identify stable trends, remaining constant in weight. These include:
DMI (Directional Movement Index) For Loop
CCI (Commodity Channel Index) For Loop
Aroon For Loop
Fast Indicators are more responsive and designed to spot rapid trend shifts:
ZLEMA (Zero-Lag Exponential Moving Average) For Loop
IIRF (Infinite Impulse Response Filter) For Loop
Each of these indicators is calculated using a for-loop method to generate a moving average, which captures the trend of a given length range.
RSI Normalization
To facilitate the weighting system, the RSI is normalized from its usual 0-100 range to a -1 to 1 range. This allows for easy scaling when calculating weights and helps the system adjust to rapidly changing market conditions.
// Normalize RSI (1 to -1)
f_RSI(series float rsi_src, simple int rsi_len, simple string rsi_wb, simple string ma_type, simple int ma_len) =>
output = switch rsi_wb
"RAW RSI" => ta.rsi(rsi_src, rsi_len)
"RSI MA" => ma_type == "EMA" ? (ta.ema(ta.rsi(rsi_src, rsi_len), ma_len)) : (ta.sma(ta.rsi(rsi_src, rsi_len), ma_len))
Signal Calculation
The final trading signal is a weighted average of both the slow and fast indicators, depending on the calculated weights from the RSI. This ensures a balanced approach, where slow indicators maintain overall trend guidance, while fast indicators provide timely entries and exits.
// Calculate Signal (as weighted average)
sig = math.round(((DMI*slow_w) + (CCI*slow_w) + (Aroon*slow_w) + (ZLEMA*fast_w) + (IIRF*fast_w)) / (3*slow_w + 2*fast_w), 2)
Backtest Mode and Performance Metrics
This version of the RSI Weighted Trend System includes a comprehensive backtesting mode, allowing users to evaluate the performance of their selected settings against a Buy & Hold strategy. The backtesting includes:
Equity calculation based on the signals generated by the indicator.
Performance metrics table comparing Buy & Hold strategy metrics with the system’s signals, including: Mean, positive, and negative return percentages, Standard deviations (of all, positive and negative returns), Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Omega Ratio
f_PerformanceMetrics(series float base, int Lookback, simple float startDate, bool Annualize = true) =>
// Initialize variables for positive and negative returns
pos_sum = 0.0
neg_sum = 0.0
pos_count = 0
neg_count = 0
returns_sum = 0.0
returns_squared_sum = 0.0
pos_returns_squared_sum = 0.0
neg_returns_squared_sum = 0.0
// Loop through the past 'Lookback' bars to calculate sums and counts
if (time >= startDate)
for i = 0 to Lookback - 1
r = (base - base ) / base
returns_sum += r
returns_squared_sum += r * r
if r > 0
pos_sum += r
pos_count += 1
pos_returns_squared_sum += r * r
if r < 0
neg_sum += r
neg_count += 1
neg_returns_squared_sum += r * r
float export_array = array.new_float(12)
// Calculate means
mean_all = math.round((returns_sum / Lookback) * 100, 2)
mean_pos = math.round((pos_count != 0 ? pos_sum / pos_count : na) * 100, 2)
mean_neg = math.round((neg_count != 0 ? neg_sum / neg_count : na) * 100, 2)
// Calculate standard deviations
stddev_all = math.round((math.sqrt((returns_squared_sum - (returns_sum * returns_sum) / Lookback) / Lookback)) * 100, 2)
stddev_pos = math.round((pos_count != 0 ? math.sqrt((pos_returns_squared_sum - (pos_sum * pos_sum) / pos_count) / pos_count) : na) * 100, 2)
stddev_neg = math.round((neg_count != 0 ? math.sqrt((neg_returns_squared_sum - (neg_sum * neg_sum) / neg_count) / neg_count) : na) * 100, 2)
// Calculate probabilities
prob_pos = math.round((pos_count / Lookback) * 100, 2)
prob_neg = math.round((neg_count / Lookback) * 100, 2)
prob_neu = math.round(((Lookback - pos_count - neg_count) / Lookback) * 100, 2)
// Calculate ratios
sharpe_ratio = math.round(mean_all / stddev_all * (Annualize ? math.sqrt(Lookback) : 1), 2)
sortino_ratio = math.round(mean_all / stddev_neg * (Annualize ? math.sqrt(Lookback) : 1), 2)
omega_ratio = math.round(pos_sum / math.abs(neg_sum), 2)
// Set values in the array
array.set(export_array, 0, mean_all), array.set(export_array, 1, mean_pos), array.set(export_array, 2, mean_neg),
array.set(export_array, 3, stddev_all), array.set(export_array, 4, stddev_pos), array.set(export_array, 5, stddev_neg),
array.set(export_array, 6, prob_pos), array.set(export_array, 7, prob_neu), array.set(export_array, 8, prob_neg),
array.set(export_array, 9, sharpe_ratio), array.set(export_array, 10, sortino_ratio), array.set(export_array, 11, omega_ratio)
// Export the array
export_array
The metrics help traders assess the effectiveness of their strategy over time and can be used to optimize their settings.
Calibration Mode
A calibration mode is included to assist users in tuning the indicator to their specific needs. In this mode, traders can focus on a specific indicator (e.g., DMI, CCI, Aroon, ZLEMA, IIRF, or RSI) and fine-tune it without interference from other signals.
The calibration plot visualizes the chosen indicator's performance against a zero line, making it easy to see how changes in the indicator’s settings affect its trend detection.
Customization and Default Settings
Important Note: The default settings provided are not optimized for any particular market or asset. They serve as a starting point for experimentation. Traders are encouraged to calibrate the system to suit their own trading strategies and preferences.
The indicator allows deep customization, from selecting which indicators to use, adjusting the lengths of each indicator, smoothing parameters, and the RSI weight system.
Alerts
Traders can set alerts for both long and short signals when the indicator flips, allowing for automated monitoring of potential trading opportunities.
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TASC 2024.11 Ultimate Strength Index█ OVERVIEW
This script implements the Ultimate Strength Index (USI) indicator, introduced by John Ehlers in his article titled "Ultimate Strength Index (USI)" from the November 2024 edition of TASC's Traders' Tips . The USI is a modified version of Wilder's original Relative Strength Index (RSI) that incorporates Ehlers' UltimateSmoother lowpass filter to produce an output with significantly reduced lag.
█ CONCEPTS
Many technical indicators, including the RSI, lag due to their heavy reliance on historical data. John Ehlers reformulated the RSI to substantially reduce lag by applying his UltimateSmoother filter to upward movements ( strength up - SU ) and downward movements ( strength down - SD ) in the time series, replacing the standard process of smoothing changes with rolling moving averages (RMAs). Ehlers' recent works, covered in our recent script publications, have shown that the UltimateSmoother is an effective alternative to other classic averages, offering notably less lag in its response.
Ehlers also modified the RSI formula to produce an index that ranges from -1 to +1 instead of 0 to 100. As a result, the USI indicates bullish conditions when its value moves above 0 and bearish conditions when it falls below 0.
The USI retains many of the strengths of the traditional RSI while offering the advantage of reduced lag. It generally uses a larger lookback window than the conventional RSI to achieve similar behavior, making it suitable for trend trading with longer data lengths. When applied with shorter lengths, the USI's peaks and valleys tend to align closely with significant turning points in the time series, making it a potentially helpful tool for timing swing trades.
█ CALCULATIONS
The first step in the USI's calculation is determining each bar's strength up (SU) and strength down (SD) values. If the current bar's close exceeds the previous bar's, the calculation assigns the difference to SU. Otherwise, SU is zero. Likewise, if the current bar's close is below the previous bar's, it assigns the difference to SD. Otherwise, SD is zero.
Next, instead of the RSI's typical smoothing process, the USI's calculation applies the UltimateSmoother to the short-term average SU and SD values, reducing high-frequency chop in the series with low lag.
Finally, this formula determines the USI value:
USI = ( Ult (SU) − Ult (SD)) / ( Ult (SU) + Ult (SD)),
where Ult (SU) and Ult (SD) are the smoothed average strength up and strength down values.
ICT MACROS (UTC-4)This Pine Script creates an indicator that draws vertical lines on a TradingView chart to mark specific time intervals during the day. It allows the user to see when certain predefined time periods start and end, using vertical lines of different colors. The script is designed to work with time frames aligned to the UTC-4 timezone.
### Key Features of the Script
1. **Vertical Line Drawing Function**:
- The script uses a custom function, `draw_vertical_line`, to draw vertical lines at specific times.
- This function takes four parameters:
- `specificTime`: The specific timestamp when the vertical line should be drawn.
- `lineColor`: The color of the vertical line.
- `labelText`: The text label for the line (used internally for debugging purposes).
- `adjustment_minutes`: An integer value that allows time adjustment (in minutes) to make the lines align more accurately with the chart’s candles.
- The function calculates an adjusted time using the `adjustment_minutes` parameter and checks if the current time (`time`) falls within a 3-minute range of the adjusted time. If it does, it draws a vertical line.
2. **User Input for Time Adjustment**:
- The `adjustment_minutes` input allows users to fine-tune the appearance of the lines by shifting them slightly forward or backward in time to ensure they align with the chart candles. This is useful because of potential minor discrepancies between the script’s timestamps and the chart’s actual candle times.
3. **Predefined Time Intervals**:
- The script specifies six different time intervals (using the UTC-4 timezone) and draws vertical lines to mark the start and end of each interval:
- **First interval**: 8:50 - 9:10 AM
- **Second interval**: 9:50 - 10:10 AM
- **Third interval**: 10:50 - 11:10 AM
- **Fourth interval**: 13:10 - 13:40 PM
- **Fifth interval**: 14:50 - 15:10 PM
- **Sixth interval**: 15:15 - 15:45 PM
- For each interval, there are two timestamps: the start time and the end time. The script draws a green vertical line for the start and a red vertical line for the end.
4. **Line Drawing Logic**:
- For each time interval, the script calculates the timestamp using the `timestamp()` function with the specified time in UTC-4.
- The `draw_vertical_line` function is called twice for each interval: once for the start time (with a green line) and once for the end time (with a red line).
5. **Visual Overlay**:
- The script uses the `overlay=true` setting, which means that the vertical lines are drawn directly on top of the existing price chart. This helps in visually identifying the specific time intervals without cluttering the chart.
### Summary
This Pine Script is designed for traders or analysts who want to visualize specific time intervals directly on their TradingView charts. It provides a customizable way to highlight these intervals using vertical lines, making it easier to analyze price action or trading volume during key times of the day. The `adjustment_minutes` input adds flexibility to align these lines accurately with chart data.
ICT Asian Range and KillzonesThis TradingView indicator highlights key trading sessions and their price ranges on a chart. It identifies the Asian Range and the Killzones for both the London Open and New York Open sessions. Here’s a brief breakdown:
Asian Range:
Defines the high and low price levels during the Asian trading session (between the specified start and end hours, default 00:00 to 04:00 UTC).
Plots horizontal lines to mark the highest and lowest prices reached during the Asian session.
Adds labels showing the values of these high and low points after the session ends.
London and New York Killzones:
Identifies the “Killzones” or key trading windows for the London Open (default 06:00 to 09:00 UTC) and the New York Open (default 11:00 to 14:00 UTC).
Tracks the high and low price levels within these windows and plots rectangles ("boxes") on the chart to visualize these ranges.
The boxes are color-coded and customizable, indicating potential areas of high market activity or volatility.
Customizable Visuals:
Users can adjust the colors, border widths, and other visual properties for better clarity and chart integration.
Double Ribbon [ChartPrime]The Double Ribbon - ChartPrime indicator is a powerful tool that combines two sets of Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) into a visually intuitive ribbon, which helps traders assess market trends and momentum. This indicator features two distinct ribbons: one with a fixed length but changing offset (displayed in gray) and another with varying lengths (displayed in colors). The relationship between these ribbons forms the basis of a trend score, which is visualized as an oscillator. This comprehensive approach provides traders with a clear view of market direction and strength.
◆ KEY FEATURES
Dual Ribbon Visualization : Displays two sets of 11 SMAs—one in a neutral gray color with a fixed length but varying offset, and another in vibrant colors with lengths that increase incrementally.
Trend Score Calculation : The trend score is derived from comparing each SMA in the colored ribbon with its corresponding SMA in the gray ribbon. If a colored SMA is above its gray counterpart, a positive score is added; if below, a negative score is assigned.
// Loop to calculate SMAs and update the score based on their relationships
for i = 0 to length
// Calculate SMA with increasing lengths
sma = ta.sma(src, len + 1 + i)
// Update score based on comparison of primary SMA with current SMA
if sma1 < sma
score += 1
else
score -= 1
// Store calculated SMAs in the arrays
sma_array.push(sma)
sma_array1.push(sma1 )
Dynamic Trend Analysis : The score oscillator provides a dynamic analysis of the trend, allowing traders to quickly gauge market conditions and potential reversals.
Customizable Ribbon Display : Users can toggle the display of the ribbon for a cleaner chart view, focusing solely on the trend score if desired.
◆ USAGE
Trend Confirmation : Use the position and color of the ribbon to confirm the current market trend. When the colored ribbon consistently stays above the gray ribbon, it indicates a strong uptrend, and vice versa for a downtrend.
Momentum Assessment : The score oscillator provides insight into the strength of the current trend. Higher scores suggest stronger trends, while lower scores may indicate weakening momentum or a potential reversal.
Strategic Entry/Exit Points : Consider using crossovers between the ribbons and changes in the score oscillator to identify potential entry or exit points in trades.
⯁ USER INPUTS
Length : Sets the base length for the primary SMAs in the ribbons.
Source : Determines the price data used for calculating the SMAs (e.g., close, open).
Ribbon Display Toggle : Allows users to show or hide the ribbon on the chart, focusing on either the ribbon, the trend score, or both.
⯁ CONCLUSION
The Double Ribbon indicator offers traders a comprehensive tool for analyzing market trends and momentum. By combining two ribbons with varying SMA lengths and offsets, it provides a clear visual representation of market conditions. The trend score oscillator enhances this analysis by quantifying trend strength, making it easier for traders to identify potential trading opportunities and manage risk effectively.
TCLC(TraderChitra Learning Class)-Option ChainThis indicator plots the Option chain data of the following instruments and columns..
It plots 11 rows ,
5 Rows above the input strike price
1 Row for the input strike price
5 Rows below the input strike price
Instruments :
1. NIFTY
2. BANKNIFTY
3. FINNIFTY
4. MIDCPNifty
Columns :
1. StrikePrice
2.CMP
3.Volume
4.VWAP
5.Diff (Open-Close)
Traders need to change the expiry date to check the premium of the corresponding instruments...
There are few key things,
1. Rows in yellow are marked as ATM strike price
2. Cell values in red / green indicates the prices are trading above / below the VWAP
The prices are expected to be bullish when cmp trades above VWAP and we can gauge the trend
The column Volume provides the details in which strike price more traders are actively traded..
The far month contracts can also be changed in the settings and it helps the swing/positional traders
The Strike price can be modified to check the appropriate strikes
Advanced ADX [CryptoSea]The Advanced ADX Analysis is a sophisticated tool designed to enhance market analysis through detailed ADX calculations. This tool is built for traders who seek to identify market trends, strength, and potential reversals with higher accuracy. By leveraging the Average Directional Index (ADX), Directional Indicator Plus (DI+), and Directional Indicator Minus (DI-), this indicator offers a comprehensive view of market dynamics.
New Overlay Feature: This script uses the new 'force overlay' feature which lets you plot on the chart as well as plotting in an oscillator pane at the same time.
force_overlay=true
Key Features
Comprehensive ADX Tracking: Tracks ADX values along with DI+ and DI- to provide a complete view of market trend strength and direction. The ADX measures the strength of the trend, while DI+ and DI- indicate the trend direction. This combined analysis helps traders identify strong and weak trends with precision.
Trend Duration Monitoring: Monitors the duration of strong and weak trends, offering insights into trend persistence and potential reversals. By keeping track of how long the ADX has been above or below a certain threshold, traders can gauge the sustainability of the current trend.
Customizable Alerts: Features multiple alert options for strong trends, weak trends, and DI crossovers, ensuring traders are notified of significant market events. These alerts can be tailored to notify traders when certain conditions are met, such as when the ADX crosses a threshold or when DI+ crosses DI-.
Adaptive Display Options: Includes customizable background color settings and extended statistics display for in-depth market analysis. Users can choose to highlight strong or weak trends on the chart background, making it easier to visualize market conditions at a glance.
In the example below, we have a bullish scenario play out where the DI+ has been above the DI- for 11 candles and our dashboard shows the average is 10.48 candles. With the ADX above its threshold this would be a bullish signal.
This ended up in a 20%+ move to the upside. The dashboard will help point out things to consider when looking to exit the position, the DI+ getting close to the max DI+ duration would be a sign that momentum is weakening and that price may cool off or even reverse.
How it Works
ADX Calculation: Computes the ADX, DI+, and DI- values using a user-defined period. The ADX is derived from the smoothed average of the absolute difference between DI+ and DI-. This calculation helps determine the strength of a trend without considering its direction.
Trend Duration Analysis: Tracks and calculates the duration of strong and weak trends, as well as DI+ and DI- durations. This analysis provides a detailed view of how long a trend has been in place, helping traders assess the reliability of the trend.
Alert System: Provides a robust alert system that triggers notifications for strong trends, weak trends, and DI crossovers. The alerts are based on specific conditions such as the duration of the trend or the crossover of directional indicators, ensuring traders are informed about critical market movements.
Visual Enhancements: Utilizes color gradients and background settings to visually represent trend strength and duration. This feature enhances the visual analysis of trends, making it easier for traders to identify significant market changes at a glance.
In the example below, we see the ADX weakening after we have just had a move up, if you are looking to get into this position you want to see the ADX growing with either the DI+ or DI- breaking their average durations.
As you can see below, although the ADX manages to move above the threshold, there are no DI+/- breaks which is shown by price moving sideways. Not something most traders would be interested in.
Application
Strategic Decision-Making: Assists traders in making informed decisions by providing detailed analysis of ADX movements and trend durations. By understanding the strength and direction of trends, traders can better time their entries and exits.
Trend Confirmation: Reinforces trading strategies by confirming potential reversals and trend strength through ADX and DI analysis. This confirmation helps traders validate their trading signals, reducing the risk of false signals.
Customized Analysis: Adapts to various trading styles with extensive input settings that control the display and sensitivity of trend data. Traders can customize the indicator to suit their specific needs, making it a versatile tool for different trading strategies.
The Advanced ADX Analysis by is an invaluable addition to a trader's toolkit, offering depth and precision in market trend analysis to navigate complex market conditions effectively. With its comprehensive tracking, alert system, and customizable display options, this indicator provides traders with the tools they need to stay ahead of the market.
Advanced Gold Scalping Strategy with RSI Divergence# Advanced Gold Scalping Strategy with RSI Divergence
## Overview
This Pine Script implements an advanced scalping strategy for gold (XAUUSD) trading, primarily designed for the 1-minute timeframe. The strategy utilizes the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator along with its moving average to identify potential trade setups based on divergences between price action and RSI movements.
## Key Components
### 1. RSI Calculation
- Uses a customizable RSI length (default: 60)
- Allows selection of the source for RSI calculation (default: close price)
### 2. Moving Average of RSI
- Supports multiple MA types: SMA, EMA, SMMA (RMA), WMA, VWMA, and Bollinger Bands
- Customizable MA length (default: 3)
- Option to display Bollinger Bands with adjustable standard deviation multiplier
### 3. Divergence Detection
- Implements both bullish and bearish divergence identification
- Uses pivot high and pivot low points to detect divergences
- Allows for customization of lookback periods and range for divergence detection
### 4. Entry Conditions
- Long Entry: Bullish divergence when RSI is below 40
- Short Entry: Bearish divergence when RSI is above 60
### 5. Trade Management
- Stop Loss: Customizable, default set to 11 pips
- Take Profit: Customizable, default set to 33 pips
### 6. Visualization
- Plots RSI line and its moving average
- Displays horizontal lines at 30, 50, and 70 RSI levels
- Shows Bollinger Bands when selected
- Highlights divergences with "Bull" and "Bear" labels on the chart
## Input Parameters
- RSI Length: Adjusts the period for RSI calculation
- RSI Source: Selects the price source for RSI (close, open, high, low, hl2, hlc3, ohlc4)
- MA Type: Chooses the type of moving average applied to RSI
- MA Length: Sets the period for the moving average
- BB StdDev: Adjusts the standard deviation multiplier for Bollinger Bands
- Show Divergence: Toggles the display of divergence labels
- Stop Loss: Sets the stop loss distance in pips
- Take Profit: Sets the take profit distance in pips
## Strategy Logic
1. **RSI Calculation**:
- Computes RSI using the specified length and source
- Calculates the chosen type of moving average on the RSI
2. **Divergence Detection**:
- Identifies pivot points in both price and RSI
- Checks for higher lows in RSI with lower lows in price (bullish divergence)
- Checks for lower highs in RSI with higher highs in price (bearish divergence)
3. **Trade Entry**:
- Enters a long position when a bullish divergence is detected and RSI is below 40
- Enters a short position when a bearish divergence is detected and RSI is above 60
4. **Position Management**:
- Places a stop loss order at the entry price ± stop loss pips (depending on the direction)
- Sets a take profit order at the entry price ± take profit pips (depending on the direction)
5. **Visualization**:
- Plots the RSI and its moving average
- Draws horizontal lines for overbought/oversold levels
- Displays Bollinger Bands if selected
- Shows divergence labels on the chart for identified setups
## Usage Instructions
1. Apply the script to a 1-minute XAUUSD (Gold) chart in TradingView
2. Adjust the input parameters as needed:
- Increase RSI Length for less frequent but potentially more reliable signals
- Modify MA Type and Length to change the sensitivity of the RSI moving average
- Adjust Stop Loss and Take Profit levels based on current market volatility
3. Monitor the chart for Bull (long) and Bear (short) labels indicating potential trade setups
4. Use in conjunction with other analysis and risk management techniques
## Considerations
- This strategy is designed for short-term scalping and may not be suitable for all market conditions
- Always backtest and forward test the strategy before using it with real capital
- The effectiveness of divergence-based strategies can vary depending on market trends and volatility
- Consider using additional confirmation signals or filters to improve the strategy's performance
Remember to adapt the strategy parameters to your risk tolerance and trading style, and always practice proper risk management.
Strategic Multi-Step Supertrend - Strategy [presentTrading]The code is mainly developed for me to stimulate the multi-step taking profit function for strategies. The result shows the drawdown can be reduced but at the same time reduced the profit as well. It can be a heuristic for futures leverage traders.
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Strategic Multi-Step Supertrend" is a trading strategy designed to leverage the power of multiple steps to optimize trade entries and exits across the Supertrend indicator. Unlike traditional strategies that rely on single entry and exit points, this strategy employs a multi-step approach to take profit, allowing traders to lock in gains incrementally. Additionally, the strategy is adaptable to both long and short trades, providing a comprehensive solution for dynamic market conditions.
This template strategy lies in its dual Supertrend calculation, which enhances the accuracy of trend detection and provides more reliable signals for trade entries and exits. This approach minimizes false signals and increases the overall profitability of trades by ensuring that positions are entered and exited at optimal points.
BTC 6h L/S Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The "Strategic Multi-Step Supertrend Trader" strategy utilizes two Supertrend indicators calculated with different parameters to determine the direction and strength of the market trend. This dual approach increases the robustness of the signals, reducing the likelihood of entering trades based on false signals. Here is a detailed breakdown of how the strategy operates:
🔶 Supertrend Indicator Calculation
The Supertrend indicator is a trend-following overlay on the price chart, typically used to identify the direction of the trend. It is calculated using the Average True Range (ATR) to ensure that the indicator adapts to market volatility. The formula for the Supertrend indicator is:
Upper Band = (High + Low) / 2 + (Factor * ATR)
Lower Band = (High + Low) / 2 - (Factor * ATR)
Where:
- High and Low are the highest and lowest prices of the period.
- Factor is a user-defined multiplier.
- ATR is the Average True Range over a specified period.
The Supertrend changes its direction based on the closing price in relation to these bands.
🔶 Entry-Exit Conditions
The strategy enters long positions when both Supertrend indicators signal an uptrend, and short positions when both indicate a downtrend. Specifically:
- Long Condition: Supertrend1 < 0 and Supertrend2 < 0
- Short Condition: Supertrend1 > 0 and Supertrend2 > 0
- Long Exit Condition: Supertrend1 > 0 and Supertrend2 > 0
- Short Exit Condition: Supertrend1 < 0 and Supertrend2 < 0
🔶 Multi-Step Take Profit Mechanism
The strategy features a multi-step take profit mechanism, which allows traders to lock in profits incrementally. This is achieved through four user-configurable take profit levels. For each level, the strategy specifies a percentage increase (for long trades) or decrease (for short trades) in the entry price at which a portion of the position is exited:
- Step 1: Exit a portion of the trade at Entry Price * (1 + Take Profit Percent1 / 100)
- Step 2: Exit a portion of the trade at Entry Price * (1 + Take Profit Percent2 / 100)
- Step 3: Exit a portion of the trade at Entry Price * (1 + Take Profit Percent3 / 100)
- Step 4: Exit a portion of the trade at Entry Price * (1 + Take Profit Percent4 / 100)
This staggered exit strategy helps in locking profits at multiple levels, thereby reducing risk and increasing the likelihood of capturing the maximum possible profit from a trend.
BTC Local
█ Trade Direction
The strategy is highly flexible, allowing users to specify the trade direction. There are three options available:
- Long Only: The strategy will only enter long trades.
- Short Only: The strategy will only enter short trades.
- Both: The strategy will enter both long and short trades based on the Supertrend signals.
This flexibility allows traders to adapt the strategy to various market conditions and their own trading preferences.
█ Usage
1. Add the strategy to your trading platform and apply it to the desired chart.
2. Configure the take profit settings under the "Take Profit Settings" group.
3. Set the trade direction under the "Trade Direction" group.
4. Adjust the Supertrend settings in the "Supertrend Settings" group to fine-tune the indicator calculations.
5. Monitor the chart for entry and exit signals as indicated by the strategy.
█ Default Settings
- Use Take Profit: True
- Take Profit Percentages: Step 1 - 6%, Step 2 - 12%, Step 3 - 18%, Step 4 - 50%
- Take Profit Amounts: Step 1 - 12%, Step 2 - 8%, Step 3 - 4%, Step 4 - 0%
- Number of Take Profit Steps: 3
- Trade Direction: Both
- Supertrend Settings: ATR Length 1 - 10, Factor 1 - 3.0, ATR Length 2 - 11, Factor 2 - 4.0
These settings provide a balanced starting point, which can be customized further based on individual trading preferences and market conditions.
ICT Silver Bullet | Flux Charts💎 GENERAL OVERVIEW
Introducing our new ICT Silver Bullet Indicator! This indicator is built around the ICT's "Silver Bullet" strategy. The strategy has 5 steps for execution and works best in 1-5 min timeframes. For more information about the process, check the "HOW DOES IT WORK" section.
Features of the new ICT Silver Bullet Indicator :
Implementation of ICT's Silver Bullet Strategy
Customizable Execution Settings
2 NY Sessions & London Session
Customizable Backtesting Dashboard
Alerts for Buy, Sell, TP & SL Signals
📌 HOW DOES IT WORK ?
ICT's Silver Bullet strategy has 5 steps :
1. Mark your market sessions open (This indicator has 3 -> NY 10-11, NY 14-15, LDN 03-04)
2. Mark the swing liquidity points
3. Wait for market to take down one liquidity side
4. Look for a market structure-shift for reversals
5. Wait for a FVG for execution
This indicator follows these steps and inform you step by step by plotting them in your chart. You can switch execution types between FVG and MSS.
🚩UNIQUENESS
This indicator is an all-in-one suit for the ICT's Silver Bullet concept. It's capable of plotting the strategy, giving signals, a backtesting dashboard and alerts feature. It's designed for simplyfing a rather complex strategy, helping you to execute it with clean signals. The backtesting dashboard allows you to see how your settings perform in the current ticker. You can also set up alerts to get informed when the strategy is executable for different tickers.
⚙️SETTINGS
1. General Configuration
Execution Type -> FVG execution type will require a FVG to take an entry, while the MSS setting will take an entry as soon as it detects a market structure-shift.
MSS Swing Length -> The swing length when finding liquidity zones for market structure-shift detection.
Breakout Method -> If "Wick" is selected, a bar wick will be enough to confirm a market structure-shift. If "Close" is selected, the bar must close above / below the liquidity zone to confirm a market structure-shift.
FVG Detection -> "Same Type" means that all 3 bars that formed the FVG should be the same type. (Bullish / Bearish). "All" means that bar types may vary between bullish / bearish.
FVG Detection Sensitivity -> You can turn this setting on and off. If it's off, any 3 consecutive bullish / bearish bars will be calculated as FVGs. If it's on, the size of FVGs will be filtered by the selected sensitivity. Lower settings mean less but larger FVGs.
2. TP / SL
TP / SL Method -> If "Fixed" is selected, you can adjust the TP / SL ratios from the settings below. If "Dynamic" is selected, the TP / SL zones will be auto-determined by the algorithm.
Risk -> The risk you're willing to take if "Dynamic" TP / SL Method is selected. Higher risk usually means a better winrate at the cost of losing more if the strategy fails.
Close Position @ Session End -> If this setting is enabled, the current position (if any) will be closed at the beginning of a new session, regardless if it hit the TP / SL zone. If it's off, the position will be open until it hits a TP / SL zone.
True stock performance based on Earnings YieldThe whole basis of the stock market is that you invest your money into a business that can use that money to increase it's earnings and pay you back for that investment with dividends and increased stock value. But because we are human the market often overbuy stocks that cant keep up their earnings with the current inflow of investments. We can also oversell a stock that is keeping up with earnings in regards to the stock price but we don't care because of the sentiment we have.
Earnings Yield is simply the percentage of Earnings Per Share in relation to the stock price. Alone, it's a great fundamental indicator to analyze a company. But I wanted to use it in another way and got tired of using the calculator all the time so that's why I made this indicator.
The goal is to see if the STOCK price is moving accordingly to the BUSINESS earnings. It works by calculating the difference of EY (TTM) previous close (1 bar) to the close thereafter. It then calculates the stock performance of the latest bar and divides that to get decimal form instead of percent. Then it divides the stock performance in decimal form with the difference of EY calculated before. The result shows how much the stock prices moves in relation to how much EY is moving. The theory is that if EY barely moves but the stock price moves heavily, you have a sentiment driven trend.
Example: Week 1 EY = 1.201. Week 2 EY = 1.105.
1.201 - 1.105 = 0.096
Week 2 performed a 11,2% increase in stock price. = 0.112 in decimal form.
0.112 / 0.096 = 1.67
1.67 is the multiple that plots this indicator.
Here is an good example of a stock that's currently in a highly sentiment driven trend, NVIDIA! (Posted 2024-03-30)
Here is an example of a Swedish stock that retail investors flocked to that have been blowned out completely.
When do I buy and sell?
This indicator is not meant to give exact entries or exits. The purpose is to scout the current and past sentiment, possible divergencies and see if a stock is over or under valued. I did add a 50 EMA to get some form of mean plotted. One could buy when true performance is low and sell when true performance drops below the 50 EMA. You could also just sell a part of your position and set a trailing exit with a ordinary 50 EMA or something like that. Often the sentiment will keep driving the price up. But if it last for 1 month or 1 year is impossible to tell.
Try it out and learn how it works and use it as you like. Cheers!
Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • SignificanceThe Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • Significance publication aims to provide a tool for combining different conditions and checking whether the outcome is significant using the Chi-Square Test and P-value.
🔶 USAGE
The basic principle is to compare two or more groups and check the results of a query test, such as asking men and women whether they want to see a romantic or non-romantic movie.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| | ROMANTIC | NON-ROMANTIC | ⬅︎ MOVIE |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| MEN | 2 | 8 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| WOMEN | 7 | 3 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
|⬆︎ SEX | 10 | 10 | 20 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
We calculate the Chi-Square Formula, which is:
Χ² = Σ ( (Observed Value − Expected Value)² / Expected Value )
In this publication, this is:
chiSquare = 0.
for i = 0 to rows -1
for j = 0 to colums -1
observedValue = aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(j)
expectedValue = math.max(1e-12, aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(colums) * aBin.get(rows).aFloat.get(j) / sumT) //Division by 0 protection
chiSquare += math.pow(observedValue - expectedValue, 2) / expectedValue
Together with the 'Degree of Freedom', which is (rows − 1) × (columns − 1) , the P-value can be calculated.
In this case it is P-value: 0.02462
A P-value lower than 0.05 is considered to be significant. Statistically, women tend to choose a romantic movie more, while men prefer a non-romantic one.
Users have the option to choose a P-value, calculated from a standard table or through a math.ucla.edu - Javascript-based function (see references below).
Note that the population (10 men + 10 women = 20) is small, something to consider.
Either way, this principle is applied in the script, where conditions can be chosen like rsi, close, high, ...
🔹 CONDITION
Conditions are added to the left column ('CONDITION')
For example, previous rsi values (rsi ) between 0-100, divided in separate groups
🔹 CLOSE
Then, the movement of the last close is evaluated
UP when close is higher then previous close (close )
DOWN when close is lower then previous close
EQUAL when close is equal then previous close
It is also possible to use only 2 columns by adding EQUAL to UP or DOWN
UP
DOWN/EQUAL
or
UP/EQUAL
DOWN
In other words, when previous rsi value was between 80 and 90, this resulted in:
19 times a current close higher than previous close
14 times a current close lower than previous close
0 times a current close equal than previous close
However, the P-value tells us it is not statistical significant.
NOTE: Always keep in mind that past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
A vertical line is drawn at the beginning of the chosen population (max 4990)
Here, the results seem significant.
🔹 GROUPS
It is important to ensure that the groups are formed correctly. All possibilities should be present, and conditions should only be part of 1 group.
In the example above, the two top situations are acceptable; close against close can only be higher, lower or equal.
The two examples at the bottom, however, are very poorly constructed.
Several conditions can be placed in more than 1 group, and some conditions are not integrated into a group. Even if the results are significant, they are useless because of the group formation.
A population count is added as an aid to spot errors in group formation.
In this example, there is a discrepancy between the population and total count due to the absence of a condition.
The results when rsi was between 5-25 are not included, resulting in unreliable results.
🔹 PRACTICAL EXAMPLES
In this example, we have specific groups where the condition only applies to that group.
For example, the condition rsi > 55 and rsi <= 65 isn't true in another group.
Also, every possible rsi value (0 - 100) is present in 1 of the groups.
rsi > 15 and rsi <= 25 28 times UP, 19 times DOWN and 2 times EQUAL. P-value: 0.01171
When looking in detail and examining the area 15-25 RSI, we see this:
The population is now not representative (only checking for RSI between 15-25; all other RSI values are not included), so we can ignore the P-value in this case. It is merely to check in detail. In this case, the RSI values 23 and 24 seem promising.
NOTE: We should check what the close price did without any condition.
If, for example, the close price had risen 100 times out of 100, this would make things very relative.
In this case (at least two conditions need to be present), we set 1 condition at 'always true' and another at 'always false' so we'll get only the close values without any condition:
Changing the population or the conditions will change the P-value.
In the following example, the outcome is evaluated when:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower/equal than the close value from 2 bars back
Or:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is equal than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower than the close value from 2 bars back
In both examples, all possibilities of close against close are included in the calculations. close can only by higher, equal or lower than close
Both examples have the results without a condition included (5 = 5 and 5 < 5) so one can compare the direction of current close.
🔶 NOTES
• Always keep in mind that:
Past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
Everything depends on time, cycles, events, fundamentals, technicals, ...
• This test only works for categorical data (data in categories), such as Gender {Men, Women} or color {Red, Yellow, Green, Blue} etc., but not numerical data such as height or weight. One might argue that such tests shouldn't use rsi, close, ... values.
• Consider what you're measuring
For example rsi of the current bar will always lead to a close higher than the previous close, since this is inherent to the rsi calculations.
• Be careful; often, there are na -values at the beginning of the series, which are not included in the calculations!
• Always keep in mind considering what the close price did without any condition
• The numbers must be large enough. Each entry must be five or more. In other words, it is vital to make the 'population' large enough.
• The code can be developed further, for example, by splitting UP, DOWN in close UP 1-2%, close UP 2-3%, close UP 3-4%, ...
• rsi can be supplemented with stochRSI, MFI, sma, ema, ...
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Population
• Choose the population size; in other words, how many bars you want to go back to. If fewer bars are available than set, this will be automatically adjusted.
🔹 Inputs
At least two conditions need to be chosen.
• Users can add up to 11 conditions, where each condition can contain two different conditions.
🔹 RSI
• Length
🔹 Levels
• Set the used levels as desired.
🔹 Levels
• P-value: P-value retrieved using a standard table method or a function.
• Used function, derived from Chi-Square Distribution Function; JavaScript
LogGamma(Z) =>
S = 1
+ 76.18009173 / Z
- 86.50532033 / (Z+1)
+ 24.01409822 / (Z+2)
- 1.231739516 / (Z+3)
+ 0.00120858003 / (Z+4)
- 0.00000536382 / (Z+5)
(Z-.5) * math.log(Z+4.5) - (Z+4.5) + math.log(S * 2.50662827465)
Gcf(float X, A) => // Good for X > A +1
A0=0., B0=1., A1=1., B1=X, AOLD=0., N=0
while (math.abs((A1-AOLD)/A1) > .00001)
AOLD := A1
N += 1
A0 := A1+(N-A)*A0
B0 := B1+(N-A)*B0
A1 := X*A0+N*A1
B1 := X*B0+N*B1
A0 := A0/B1
B0 := B0/B1
A1 := A1/B1
B1 := 1
Prob = math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A)) * A1
1 - Prob
Gser(X, A) => // Good for X < A +1
T9 = 1. / A
G = T9
I = 1
while (T9 > G* 0.00001)
T9 := T9 * X / (A + I)
G := G + T9
I += 1
G *= math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A))
Gammacdf(x, a) =>
GI = 0.
if (x<=0)
GI := 0
else if (x
Chisqcdf = Gammacdf(Z/2, DF/2)
Chisqcdf := math.round(Chisqcdf * 100000) / 100000
pValue = 1 - Chisqcdf
🔶 REFERENCES
mathsisfun.com, Chi-Square Test
Chi-Square Distribution Function
BAERMThe Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model: A Novel Two Step Approach
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL AND ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
If you enjoy this software and information, please consider contributing to my lightning address
Prelude
It has been previously established that the Bitcoin daily USD exchange rate series is extremely auto-correlated
In this article, we will utilise this fact to build a model for Bitcoin/USD exchange rate. But not a model for predicting the exchange rate, but rather a model to understand the fundamental reasons for the Bitcoin to have this exchange rate to begin with.
This is a model of sound money, scarcity and subjective value.
Introduction
Bitcoin, a decentralised peer to peer digital value exchange network, has experienced significant exchange rate fluctuations since its inception in 2009. In this article, we explore a two-step model that reasonably accurately captures both the fundamental drivers of Bitcoin’s value and the cyclical patterns of bull and bear markets. This model, whilst it can produce forecasts, is meant more of a way of understanding past exchange rate changes and understanding the fundamental values driving the ever increasing exchange rate. The forecasts from the model are to be considered inconclusive and speculative only.
Data preparation
To develop the BAERM, we used historical Bitcoin data from Coin Metrics, a leading provider of Bitcoin market data. The dataset includes daily USD exchange rates, block counts, and other relevant information. We pre-processed the data by performing the following steps:
Fixing date formats and setting the dataset’s time index
Generating cumulative sums for blocks and halving periods
Calculating daily rewards and total supply
Computing the log-transformed price
Step 1: Building the Base Model
To build the base model, we analysed data from the first two epochs (time periods between Bitcoin mining reward halvings) and regressed the logarithm of Bitcoin’s exchange rate on the mining reward and epoch. This base model captures the fundamental relationship between Bitcoin’s exchange rate, mining reward, and halving epoch.
where Yt represents the exchange rate at day t, Epochk is the kth epoch (for that t), and epsilont is the error term. The coefficients beta0, beta1, and beta2 are estimated using ordinary least squares regression.
Base Model Regression
We use ordinary least squares regression to estimate the coefficients for the betas in figure 2. In order to reduce the possibility of over-fitting and ensure there is sufficient out of sample for testing accuracy, the base model is only trained on the first two epochs. You will notice in the code we calculate the beta2 variable prior and call it “phaseplus”.
The code below shows the regression for the base model coefficients:
\# Run the regression
mask = df\ < 2 # we only want to use Epoch's 0 and 1 to estimate the coefficients for the base model
reg\_X = df.loc\ [mask, \ \].shift(1).iloc\
reg\_y = df.loc\ .iloc\
reg\_X = sm.add\_constant(reg\_X)
ols = sm.OLS(reg\_y, reg\_X).fit()
coefs = ols.params.values
print(coefs)
The result of this regression gives us the coefficients for the betas of the base model:
\
or in more human readable form: 0.029, 0.996869586, -0.00043. NB that for the auto-correlation/momentum beta, we did NOT round the significant figures at all. Since the momentum is so important in this model, we must use all available significant figures.
Fundamental Insights from the Base Model
Momentum effect: The term 0.997 Y suggests that the exchange rate of Bitcoin on a given day (Yi) is heavily influenced by the exchange rate on the previous day. This indicates a momentum effect, where the price of Bitcoin tends to follow its recent trend.
Momentum effect is a phenomenon observed in various financial markets, including stocks and other commodities. It implies that an asset’s price is more likely to continue moving in its current direction, either upwards or downwards, over the short term.
The momentum effect can be driven by several factors:
Behavioural biases: Investors may exhibit herding behaviour or be subject to cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, which could lead them to buy or sell assets based on recent trends, reinforcing the momentum.
Positive feedback loops: As more investors notice a trend and act on it, the trend may gain even more traction, leading to a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop. This can cause prices to continue moving in the same direction, further amplifying the momentum effect.
Technical analysis: Many traders use technical analysis to make investment decisions, which often involves studying historical exchange rate trends and chart patterns to predict future exchange rate movements. When a large number of traders follow similar strategies, their collective actions can create and reinforce exchange rate momentum.
Impact of halving events: In the Bitcoin network, new bitcoins are created as a reward to miners for validating transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain. This reward is called the block reward, and it is halved approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks. This event is known as a halving.
The primary purpose of halving events is to control the supply of new bitcoins entering the market, ultimately leading to a capped supply of 21 million bitcoins. As the block reward decreases, the rate at which new bitcoins are created slows down, and this can have significant implications for the price of Bitcoin.
The term -0.0004*(50/(2^epochk) — (epochk+1)²) accounts for the impact of the halving events on the Bitcoin exchange rate. The model seems to suggest that the exchange rate of Bitcoin is influenced by a function of the number of halving events that have occurred.
Exponential decay and the decreasing impact of the halvings: The first part of this term, 50/(2^epochk), indicates that the impact of each subsequent halving event decays exponentially, implying that the influence of halving events on the Bitcoin exchange rate diminishes over time. This might be due to the decreasing marginal effect of each halving event on the overall Bitcoin supply as the block reward gets smaller and smaller.
This is antithetical to the wrong and popular stock to flow model, which suggests the opposite. Given the accuracy of the BAERM, this is yet another reason to question the S2F model, from a fundamental perspective.
The second part of the term, (epochk+1)², introduces a non-linear relationship between the halving events and the exchange rate. This non-linear aspect could reflect that the impact of halving events is not constant over time and may be influenced by various factors such as market dynamics, speculation, and changing market conditions.
The combination of these two terms is expressed by the graph of the model line (see figure 3), where it can be seen the step from each halving is decaying, and the step up from each halving event is given by a parabolic curve.
NB - The base model has been trained on the first two halving epochs and then seeded (i.e. the first lag point) with the oldest data available.
Constant term: The constant term 0.03 in the equation represents an inherent baseline level of growth in the Bitcoin exchange rate.
In any linear or linear-like model, the constant term, also known as the intercept or bias, represents the value of the dependent variable (in this case, the log-scaled Bitcoin USD exchange rate) when all the independent variables are set to zero.
The constant term indicates that even without considering the effects of the previous day’s exchange rate or halving events, there is a baseline growth in the exchange rate of Bitcoin. This baseline growth could be due to factors such as the network’s overall growth or increasing adoption, or changes in the market structure (more exchanges, changes to the regulatory environment, improved liquidity, more fiat on-ramps etc).
Base Model Regression Diagnostics
Below is a summary of the model generated by the OLS function
OLS Regression Results
\==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: logprice R-squared: 0.999
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.999
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 2.041e+06
Date: Fri, 28 Apr 2023 Prob (F-statistic): 0.00
Time: 11:06:58 Log-Likelihood: 3001.6
No. Observations: 2182 AIC: -5997.
Df Residuals: 2179 BIC: -5980.
Df Model: 2
Covariance Type: nonrobust
\==============================================================================
coef std err t P>|t| \
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 0.0292 0.009 3.081 0.002 0.011 0.048
logprice 0.9969 0.001 1012.724 0.000 0.995 0.999
phaseplus -0.0004 0.000 -2.239 0.025 -0.001 -5.3e-05
\==============================================================================
Omnibus: 674.771 Durbin-Watson: 1.901
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 24937.353
Skew: -0.765 Prob(JB): 0.00
Kurtosis: 19.491 Cond. No. 255.
\==============================================================================
Below we see some regression diagnostics along with the regression itself.
Diagnostics: We can see that the residuals are looking a little skewed and there is some heteroskedasticity within the residuals. The coefficient of determination, or r2 is very high, but that is to be expected given the momentum term. A better r2 is manually calculated by the sum square of the difference of the model to the untrained data. This can be achieved by the following code:
\# Calculate the out-of-sample R-squared
oos\_mask = df\ >= 2
oos\_actual = df.loc\
oos\_predicted = df.loc\
residuals\_oos = oos\_actual - oos\_predicted
SSR = np.sum(residuals\_oos \*\* 2)
SST = np.sum((oos\_actual - oos\_actual.mean()) \*\* 2)
R2\_oos = 1 - SSR/SST
print("Out-of-sample R-squared:", R2\_oos)
The result is: 0.84, which indicates a very close fit to the out of sample data for the base model, which goes some way to proving our fundamental assumption around subjective value and sound money to be accurate.
Step 2: Adding the Damping Function
Next, we incorporated a damping function to capture the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets. The optimal parameters for the damping function were determined by regressing on the residuals from the base model. The damping function enhances the model’s ability to identify and predict bull and bear cycles in the Bitcoin market. The addition of the damping function to the base model is expressed as the full model equation.
This brings me to the question — why? Why add the damping function to the base model, which is arguably already performing extremely well out of sample and providing valuable insights into the exchange rate movements of Bitcoin.
Fundamental reasoning behind the addition of a damping function:
Subjective Theory of Value: The cyclical component of the damping function, represented by the cosine function, can be thought of as capturing the periodic fluctuations in market sentiment. These fluctuations may arise from various factors, such as changes in investor risk appetite, macroeconomic conditions, or technological advancements. Mathematically, the cyclical component represents the frequency of these fluctuations, while the phase shift (α and β) allows for adjustments in the alignment of these cycles with historical data. This flexibility enables the damping function to account for the heterogeneity in market participants’ preferences and expectations, which is a key aspect of the subjective theory of value.
Time Preference and Market Cycles: The exponential decay component of the damping function, represented by the term e^(-0.0004t), can be linked to the concept of time preference and its impact on market dynamics. In financial markets, the discounting of future cash flows is a common practice, reflecting the time value of money and the inherent uncertainty of future events. The exponential decay in the damping function serves a similar purpose, diminishing the influence of past market cycles as time progresses. This decay term introduces a time-dependent weight to the cyclical component, capturing the dynamic nature of the Bitcoin market and the changing relevance of past events.
Interactions between Cyclical and Exponential Decay Components: The interplay between the cyclical and exponential decay components in the damping function captures the complex dynamics of the Bitcoin market. The damping function effectively models the attenuation of past cycles while also accounting for their periodic nature. This allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions and to provide accurate predictions even in the face of significant volatility or structural shifts.
Now we have the fundamental reasoning for the addition of the function, we can explore the actual implementation and look to other analogies for guidance —
Financial and physical analogies to the damping function:
Mathematical Aspects: The exponential decay component, e^(-0.0004t), attenuates the amplitude of the cyclical component over time. This attenuation factor is crucial in modelling the diminishing influence of past market cycles. The cyclical component, represented by the cosine function, accounts for the periodic nature of market cycles, with α determining the frequency of these cycles and β representing the phase shift. The constant term (+3) ensures that the function remains positive, which is important for practical applications, as the damping function is added to the rest of the model to obtain the final predictions.
Analogies to Existing Damping Functions: The damping function in the BAERM is similar to damped harmonic oscillators found in physics. In a damped harmonic oscillator, an object in motion experiences a restoring force proportional to its displacement from equilibrium and a damping force proportional to its velocity. The equation of motion for a damped harmonic oscillator is:
x’’(t) + 2γx’(t) + ω₀²x(t) = 0
where x(t) is the displacement, ω₀ is the natural frequency, and γ is the damping coefficient. The damping function in the BAERM shares similarities with the solution to this equation, which is typically a product of an exponential decay term and a sinusoidal term. The exponential decay term in the BAERM captures the attenuation of past market cycles, while the cosine term represents the periodic nature of these cycles.
Comparisons with Financial Models: In finance, damped oscillatory models have been applied to model interest rates, stock prices, and exchange rates. The famous Black-Scholes option pricing model, for instance, assumes that stock prices follow a geometric Brownian motion, which can exhibit oscillatory behavior under certain conditions. In fixed income markets, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model for interest rates also incorporates mean reversion and stochastic volatility, leading to damped oscillatory dynamics.
By drawing on these analogies, we can better understand the technical aspects of the damping function in the BAERM and appreciate its effectiveness in modelling the complex dynamics of the Bitcoin market. The damping function captures both the periodic nature of market cycles and the attenuation of past events’ influence.
Conclusion
In this article, we explored the Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model (BAERM), a novel 2-step linear regression model for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate. We discussed the model’s components, their interpretations, and the fundamental insights they provide about Bitcoin exchange rate dynamics.
The BAERM’s ability to capture the fundamental properties of Bitcoin is particularly interesting. The framework underlying the model emphasises the importance of individuals’ subjective valuations and preferences in determining prices. The momentum term, which accounts for auto-correlation, is a testament to this idea, as it shows that historical price trends influence market participants’ expectations and valuations. This observation is consistent with the notion that the price of Bitcoin is determined by individuals’ preferences based on past information.
Furthermore, the BAERM incorporates the impact of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics on its price through the halving epoch terms. By acknowledging the significance of supply-side factors, the model reflects the principles of sound money. A limited supply of money, such as that of Bitcoin, maintains its value and purchasing power over time. The halving events, which reduce the block reward, play a crucial role in making Bitcoin increasingly scarce, thus reinforcing its attractiveness as a store of value and a medium of exchange.
The constant term in the model serves as the baseline for the model’s predictions and can be interpreted as an inherent value attributed to Bitcoin. This value emphasizes the significance of the underlying technology, network effects, and Bitcoin’s role as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. These aspects are all essential for a sound form of money, and the model’s ability to account for them further showcases its strength in capturing the fundamental properties of Bitcoin.
The BAERM offers a potential robust and well-founded methodology for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate, taking into account the key factors that drive it from both supply and demand perspectives.
In conclusion, the Bitcoin Auto-correlation Exchange Rate Model provides a comprehensive fundamentally grounded and hopefully useful framework for understanding the Bitcoin USD exchange rate.
Hodl Calculation v1.0I have developed an indicator that calculates the value of our currency if we had periodically bought any stock or cryptocurrency on any exchange. I believe many individuals would be interested in computing such values.
You can customize the start and end times, choose the amount of currency to be used for each deal, and select from two frequency options.
The first option involves specific intervals, such as hourly, every three days, or bi-weekly.
The second option allows purchases at specific dates or times, like every 15th of the month at 12:00 PM, every Monday at 11:00 AM, or every day at 6:00 AM.
After selecting the frequency, the indicator performs calculations and presents statistical information in a table.
The summarized data includes frequency value, total selected period duration, number of deals, total quantity, total cost, current value, and profit/loss status.
X% Drop in X Days, sold X Days afterIt identifies potential buy signals based on a specified percentage drop in price over a set number of days and calculates the total profit or loss (P/L) over a predefined period. Here's a breakdown of the script and its key parameters:
Script Description:
Indicator Name: "X% Drop in X Days, sold X Days after"
Functionality:
The script signals a buy opportunity when the price of an asset drops by a certain percentage (percentage_drop) within a specified length (length) in days.
It calculates the profit or loss percentage after a set number of days (hold_days) from the buy signal.
The script also displays the cumulative total profit or loss over a specified time frame, from a start date (start_period) to an end date (end_period), which is by default set to the current date.
Display:
Buy signals are marked on the chart.
The profit or loss for each trade after the hold period is displayed.
A label showing the total cumulative profit or loss, along with the start and end dates, is displayed on the chart.
Key Parameters:
percentage_drop (10.0% by default) : The percentage decrease in price that triggers a buy signal. It represents the threshold for the price drop to consider a buying opportunity.
length (3 days by default): The period over which the drop in price is considered. It's the timeframe used to evaluate the percentage drop.
hold_days (30 days by default) : The duration for holding the asset after the buy signal before selling. This parameter defines the time after which the profit or loss is calculated.
start_period (Set to "2022-11-21" by default): The beginning date for calculating the cumulative total profit or loss. This parameter allows the user to define a specific starting point for the analysis.
end_period (Set to the current date by default): The end date for the cumulative total profit or loss calculation. It defaults to the current date but can be set to a specific date for backtesting purposes.
Script Mechanics:
Buy Signal Logic: A buy signal is generated when the closing price is below the highest price of the last 'length' days, adjusted by the 'percentage_drop'.
Profit/Loss Calculation: For each buy signal, the script calculates the profit or loss percentage after 'hold_days' from the purchase. This is displayed on the chart for each trade.
Total P/L Display: The script calculates and displays the cumulative total profit or loss in the defined period (from 'start_period' to 'end_period') in a label on the chart.
Usage:
This script is useful for traders who follow a strategy based on buying assets after significant price drops and holding for a predetermined period. It automates the detection of potential buy opportunities and the calculation of profit or loss, aiding in decision-making and performance analysis.
ColorPalettesThis is my first public (and I hope not the last) library providing different color palettes used for data visualization. Each palette can contain either 3 to 9 colors or 3 to 11 colors.
So there you go. Happy New Year!
I want your new year to be as colorful, vibrant and rich as these color palettes.
Dedicated to @veryfid . RIP, dude.
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Library "ColorPalettes"
A library of various color palettes for data visualization
Reds(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Reds` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Reds` palette.
Blues(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Blues` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Blues` palette.
Greens(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Greens` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Greens` palette.
Purples(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Purples` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Purples` palette.
Oranges(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Oranges` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Oranges` palette.
Greys(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Greys` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Greys` palette.
YlGn(n)
A function to generate the sequential `YlGn` (Yellow/Green) palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `YlGn` palette.
YlGnBu(n)
A function to generate the sequential `YlGnBu` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `YlGnBu` palette.
GnBu(n)
A function to generate the sequential `GnBu` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `GnBu` palette.
BuGn(n)
A function to generate the sequential `BuGn` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `BuGn` palette.
PuBuGn(n)
A function to generate the sequential `PuBuGn` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `PuBuGn` palette.
PuBu(n)
A function to generate the sequential `PuBu` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `PuBu` palette.
BuPu(n)
A function to generate the sequential `BuPu` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `BuPu` palette.
RdPu(n)
A function to generate the sequential `RdPu` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `RdPu` palette.
PuRd(n)
A function to generate the sequential `PuRd` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `PuRd` palette.
OrRd(n)
A function to generate the sequential `OrRd` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `OrRd` palette.
YlOrRd(n)
A function to generate the sequential `YlOrRd` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `YlOrRd` palette.
YlOrBr(n)
A function to generate the sequential `YlOrBr` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `YlOrBr` palette.
Inferno(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Inferno` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Inferno` palette.
Magma(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Magma` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Magma` palette.
Plasma(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Plasma` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Plasma` palette.
Viridis(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Viridis` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Viridis` palette.
Cividis(n)
A function to generate the sequential `Cividis` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Cividis` palette.
Spectral(n)
A function to generate the diverging `Spectral` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Spectral` palette.
Turbo(n)
A function to generate the diverging `Turbo` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `Turbo` palette.
BrBG(n)
A function to generate the diverging `BrBG` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `BrBG` palette.
PiYG(n)
A function to generate the diverging `PiYG` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `PiYG` palette.
PRGn(n)
A function to generate the diverging `PRGn` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `PRGn` palette.
PuOr(n)
A function to generate the diverging `PuOr` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `PuOr` palette.
RdBu(n)
A function to generate the diverging `RdBu` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `RdBu` palette.
RdGy(n)
A function to generate the diverging `RdGy` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `RdGy` palette.
RdYlBu(n)
A function to generate the diverging `RdYlBu` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `RdYlBu` palette.
RdYlGn(n)
A function to generate the diverging `RdYlGn` palette of the specified size.
Parameters:
n (int) The size of the output palette to generate. Default is 9.
Returns: An array of colors from the `RdYlGn` palette.
London BreakOut ClassicHey there, this is my first time publishing a strategy. The strategy is based on the London Breakout Idea, an incredibly popular concept with abundant information available online.
Let me summarize the London Breakout Strategy in a nutshell: It involves identifying key price levels based on the Tokyo Session before the London Session starts. Typically, these key levels are the high and low of the previous Tokyo session. If a breakout occurs during the London session, you simply follow the trend.
The purpose of this code
After conducting my research, I came across numerous posts, videos, and articles discussing the London Breakout Strategy. I aimed to automatically test it myself to verify whether the claims made by these so-called trading gurus are accurate or not. Consequently, I wrote this script to gain an understanding of how this strategy would perform if I were to follow its basic settings blindly.
Explanation of drawings on the chart:
Red or Green Box: A box is drawn on our chart displaying the exact range of the Tokyo trading session. This box is colored red if the trend during the session was downward and green if it was upward. The box is always drawn between the high and the low between 0:00 AM and 7:00 AM UTC. You can change the settings via the Inputs "Session time Tokyo" & "Session time zone".
Green Background: The green background represents the London trading session. My code allows us to make entries only during this time. If we haven't entered a trade, any pending orders are canceled. I've also programmed a timeout at 11 pm to ensure every trade is closed before the new Tokyo session begins.
Red Line: The red line is automatically placed in the middle of our previous Tokyo range. This line acts as our stop loss. If we cross this line after entering a trade but before reaching our take profit, we'll be stopped out.
When do we enter a trade?
We wait for a candle body to close outside of the previous Tokyo range to enter a trade with the opening of the next candle. We only enter one trade per day.
Where do we put our Take Profit?
The code calculates the exact distance between our entry point and the stop loss. We are trading a risk-reward ratio of 1:1 by default, meaning our take profit is always the same number of pips away from our entry as the stop loss. The Stop Loss is always defined by the red line on the chart. You can change the risk-reward ratio via the inputs setting "CRV", to see how the result changes.
What is the purpose of this script?
I wanted to backtest the London breakout strategy to see how it actually works. Therefore, I wrote this code so that everybody can test it for themselves. You can change the settings and see how the result changes. Typically, you should test this strategy on forex markets and on either 1Min, 5 Min, or 15 Min timeframe.
What are the results?
Over the last 3-6 months (over 100 trades), trading the strategy with my default settings hasn't proven to be very successful. Consequently, I do not recommend trading this strategy blindly. The purpose of this code is to provide you with a foundation for the London Breakout Strategy, allowing you to modify and enhance it according to your preferences. If you're contemplating whether to give it a try, you can assess the results from the past months by using this code as a starting point.
Scale Ability [TrendX_]Scale Ability indicator can indicate a company’s potential for future growth and profitability.
A scalable company is one that can increase its revenue and market share without increasing its costs proportionally, which can benefit from economies of scale. Therefore, the high-scale ability can generate more value for its shareholders - which is important for investment decisions.
Scale Ability indicator consists of 3 financial components:
Cash Flow from Investing Activities to Total Assets Ratio (CFIA / TA)
Net Income to Total Debt Ratio (NI / TD)
Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization to Equity Ratio (EBITDA / E)
These measures can help investors assess how efficiently and effectively a company uses its resources to generate revenue and profit.
Note:
This can be customizable between Fiscal Quarter (FQ) and Fiscal Year (Fy)
This is suitable for companies in fast-growing industries.
FUNCTION
CFIA / TA Ratio
A company with a net income to total debt of 9% could indicate that it is investing in its assets to keep up with the market demand and the technological changes which can create competitive advantages.
NI/ TD Ratio
A company with a net income to total debt of 9% could show that it is profitable and has a strong financial position, which can easily cover its debt payments.
EBITDA / E Ratio
A company with a net income to total debt of 14% illustrates that it is generating a high return on its equity.
USAGE
Scale index division:
> 43 : Excellent
32 - 43 : Good
12 - 31 : Above Average
= 11 : Average
8 - 10 : Below Average
5 - 7 : Poor
< 4 : Very Poor
DISCLAIMER
This is only a rough estimate, and the actual ratio may differ significantly depending on the stage of the business cycle and the company’s strategy, and the comparison of each company and its peers.
This indicator is not financial advice, it can only help traders make better decisions. There are many factors and uncertainties that can affect the outcome of any endeavor, and no one can guarantee or predict with certainty what will occur.
Therefore, one should always exercise caution and judgment when making decisions based on past performance.
Captain Backtest Model [TFO]Created by @imjesstwoone and @mickey1984, this trade model attempts to capture the expansion from the 10:00-14:00 EST 4h candle using just 3 simple steps. All of the information presented in this description has been outlined by its creators, all I did was translate it to Pine Script. All core settings of the trade model may be edited so that users can test several variations, however this description will cover its default, intended behavior using NQ 5m as an example.
Step 1 is to identify our Price Range. In this case, we are concerned with the highest high and the lowest low created from 6:00-10:00 EST.
Step 2 is to wait for either the high or low of said range to be taken out. Whichever side gets taken first determines the long/short bias for the remainder of the Trade Window (i.e. if price takes the range high, bias is long, and vice versa). Bias must be determined by 11:15 EST, otherwise no trades will be taken. This filter is intended to weed out "choppy" trading days.
Step 3 is to wait for a retracement and enter with a close through the previous candle's high (if long biased) or low (if short biased). There are a couple toggleable criteria that we use to define a retracement; one is checking for opposite close candles that indicate a pullback; another is checking if price took the previous candle's low (if long biased) or high (if short biased).
This trade model was initially tested for index futures, particularly ES and NQ, using a 5m chart, however this indicator allows us to backtest any symbol on any timeframe. Creators @imjesstwoone and @mickey1984 specified a 5 point stop loss on ES and a 25 point stop loss on NQ with their testing.
I've personally found some success in backtesting NQ 5m using a 25 point stop loss and 75 point profit target (3:1 R). Enabling the Use Fixed R:R parameter will ensure that these stops and targets are utilized, otherwise it will enter and hold the position until the close of the Trade Window.
The Ultimate Buy and Sell IndicatorThis indicator should be used in conjunction with a solid risk management strategy that does not over-leverage positions and uses stop-losses. You can not rely 100% on the signals provided by this indicator (or any other for that matter).
With that said, this indicator can provide some excellent signals.
It has been designed with a large number of customization options intended for advanced traders, but you do not HAVE to be an advanced user to simply use the indicator. I have tried to make it easy to understand, and this section will provide you with a better understanding of how to use it.
NOTE:
While NOT REQUIRED, I would recommend also finding my indicator called, "Ultimate RSI", which is designed to work together with this indicator (visually). They both contain the same settings and allow you to visualize changes made in this indicator that can not be displayed on the main chart.
This indicator creates it's own candles(bars), so you have to go into your main settings and turn off the "body, border and wick" color settings. Using a dark background is also recommended.
How does it work?
The indicator mainly relies on the RSI indicator with Bollinger Bands for signals. (Though not entirely)
First, there are something that I call "Watch Signals", which are various Bollinger Band crossing events. This could be the price crossing Bollinger Bands or the RSI crossing Bollinger Bands.
There are separate watch signals for buys and sells. Buy watch signals are colored orange to match the BUY signal candle color and Fuchsia (kind of a bright purple) to match SELL signal candles.
In order for most buy or sell signals to be created, there must first be a watch signal. There is a lookback period (or length) for watch signals to be used, and after that many candles (bars) have passed, they will be ignored. You can set a length to look back as well as a time to wait before creating any.
What this means is that if there has previously been (for instance) a sell signal. You can tell it to wait 10 bars before creating any buy watch signals. You can then also tell it that it should look back 10 bars from the current one in order to find any buy watch signals. This means that if you had it set up that way 10 to wait and 10 to validate, it would start allowing buy watch signals 11 bars after a sell, and then once you hit 20 bars, it will start leaving a gap (invisible to you) as the 10 bar lookback period starts moving forward with each new bar. This is useful in order to keep signals more spaced apart as some bad signals come quickly after another one.
Example: You may get a sell signal where the Bollinger bands are tight, then the price easily drops down into the lower band creating a buy watch signal, then you get a "fake" or short pump up and it says buy, but then drops dramatically afterwards. The wait period can ensure that the sell stays in effect longer before a buy is considered by blocking any buy watch signals for a period of time.
After you get a watch signal, the system then looks for various other things to happen to create buy or sell signals. This could be the RSI crossing the (slow) RSI Basis line (from its Bollinger bands), it could be the price crossing its basis line, it could be MACD crosses, it could even be RSI crossing certain levels. All of these are options. If you like the MACD strategy and want it to give you buy and sell signals from just MACD crosses, simply select that option for signals.
It is also able to use the first of any of the options that takes place.
I included an option to force alternating buy and sell signals, rather than showing groups of, or subsequent buy, buy, buy signals, for instance.
Moving on....
You can change the moving average that is used to calculate the RSI. The standard moving average for RSI is the RMA (aka SWMA). Changes to this can dramatically change your signals. You also have the option to change the moving average type used in the Bollinger bands calculation. You can change the length of these as well. The same goes for the Bollinger bands over the Price chart. I added an ATR option for the RSI Bollinger bands to play with, as well. You are able to adjust the standard deviation (multiplier) of the bands as well, which will of course affect the signals.
The ways you can play with signals are nearly infinite, so have fun figuring it out.
The indicator allows for moving averages to be shown as well, with a variety of types to choose from. The standard numbers are 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200, with the addition of a custom moving average of your choice. You can also change the color of this one. You can choose to show them all or any of them you want to show, in any combination, although the TYPE of moving average (SMA, EMA, WMA, etc.) will apply to all of them.
You may also notice the Bollinger Bands over the Price are colored, and become more or less transparent.
The color is derived from the trend of the RSI or the RSI basis (your choice). It looks back at the value however many bars you want and compares the values and that's how it determines if it is trending up or down. Since RSI is a directional momentum indicator, this can be quite useful. If you see the bands are getting darker, this will explain why.
The indicator has a lookback period for determining the widest the bands (which measure volatility) have been over that period of time. This is the baseline. It then will make the bands disappear (by making them more transparent) if the volatility is low. This indicates that a change in volatility is coming and that price isn't really changing much compared to the past (default 500) bars. If they become bright, this is because price has started trending in a direction and volatility is increasing.
I should also note that the candles are colored based on RSI levels.
If you use the Ultimate Companion indicator, you will be able to see the RSI levels (zones) that the colors are based on. As RSI moves into a new range, the candle color will change.
I have created a yellow zone where the candles turn yellow. This is when RSI is between (default) 45 and 55, indicating there is basically no momentum and price is going sideways. This is a good place to get trapped in bad trades, and there is a Yellow RSI Filter to block signals in this area to keep you from entering bad trades.
Green candles indicate values over 55 (getting brighter as RSI rises) and red candles are RSI values under 45 (getting brighter as RSI values get lower). If you see white, this means RSI is either over 80 or under 20. A sharp reversal is almost always imminent at this stage.
When we talk about Buy and Sell Signals, they draw a green or red triangle and it literally says BUY or SELL. There is an option to color the background for added visibility. These signals do not "repaint", what this means is that they can be late. To account for this, I have included a background color that will flash as a warning that a buy or sell could be imminent, although it may fail to break through and set a buy or sell signal. This is simply an advanced warning. The reason is that sometimes a candle may be very large and you won't be told to buy or sell during the candle until the move is completely over and now you're getting in on the next one. That's not a great feeling, so I made it repaint the background color and not repaint the completed signal. You get the best of both worlds.
This indicator also uses complex logic to handle things.
When there is a buy signal, it enters into a state of having been bought, or a "bought state". The same for sells. If Force alternating signals is off, you could have more than one buy in a bought state, or more than one sell in a sell state. There is an option to color the background green during the full duration of a bought state, or red during the full duration of a sold state.
I have added divergence.
This shows that the lows or highs of RSI and PRICE are different. If RSI is making higher highs but the price is not, then the price is likely to follow this bullish divergence, if the opposite happens, it's bearish. It will draw a line on the chart connecting the highs and lows and call it bearish or bullish. You can adjust this as well.
I have an RSI High/Low filter. If the RSI basis (or average) is very high or low, you can block signal from this area since the price is likely to continue in that direction before actually reversing.
You can change the settings of the MACD if you choose to use it for signals, and if you want to see it, you'll have to run that indicator below the chart and match the settings to see what is going on, just like the RSI.
Going back to Watch Signals. You can also choose to require more than one watch signal if you choose. You can skip watch signals, so it will ignore the first or second one, whatever you want to do. You can color the background to show you where watch signals have been skipped.
Regarding the wait period for creating watch signals after a sell or after a buy, you can also color the background to see where these were blocked by the wait period.
Lastly you can choose which type of watch signals to use, or keep them from being shown on the chart. This allows you to study the history of how the asset you are trading behaves and customize the behavior of signals based on your study of it.
Everything in the settings area has tooltips, which will explain what that thing does to help you along this journey.
I hope this indicator (and perhaps Ultimate RSI alongside this) will help you take your trading to the next level.
TASC 2023.11 VAcc█ OVERVIEW
The November 2023 edition of TASC's Traders' Tips features an article titled "VAcc: A Momentum Indicator Based On Velocity And Acceleration" by Scott Cong. This script implements the author's momentum indicator based on simple physics concepts.
█ CONCEPTS
The indicator is named VAcc as it is derived from the average velocity (V) and acceleration (Acc) over a specified lookback period. Consequently, its readings reflect two valuable characteristics of price data: rate (indicating the speed at which the price is moving) and rate of change (indicating whether the price is speeding up or slowing down).
In the article, the author reports that for longer periods, VAcc behaves similarly to the MACD , albeit with a more responsive nature. For shorter periods, VAcc exhibits characteristics reminiscent of the stochastic oscillator , but it trends more prominently and is less prone to overbought/oversold saturation.
To incorporate VAcc into trading strategies, the author suggests considering the following two permutations for the velocity and acceleration data series:
Strong upward condition: Velocity is rising, and acceleration is rising above zero.
Strong downward condition: Velocity is falling, and acceleration is falling.
In the current implementation, the chart displays the average velocity as a line, while the average acceleration is presented as a histogram.
█ CALCULATIONS
The calculation of VAcc involves the following steps:
For the current closing price, C , and for each bar C (i) within a specified lookback period from the current bar, the script calculates velocities, V (i) = ( C - C (i))/i. These velocities are then subjected to an exponential moving average to obtain the smoothed average velocity.
Similarly, for each bar within the lookback period, accelerations are calculated as Acc (i) = ( V - V (i))/i and then averaged without smoothing.
Fractals 5/7/9/11/13 ModifiedDescription:
The Modified Fractals Indicator is designed to help traders identify specific fractal patterns on a chart. Unlike traditional Williams Fractals, this indicator focuses on highlighting two distinct types of fractals:
- UpFractals: These fractals are identified when each preceding candle has a higher high than the one before it, and each succeeding candle has a higher high than the one following it.
- DownFractals: Conversely, DownFractals are detected when each preceding candle has a lower low than the one before it, and each succeeding candle has a lower low than the one following it.
This unique approach sets it apart from standard Fractal indicators.
Features:
1. Originality and Uniqueness: This indicator employs a distinctive algorithm to detect and display modified fractals, providing a fresh perspective on price reversals.
2. Customizable Parameters: Users can fine-tune the indicator to their trading strategy by adjusting the candle count and arrow size.
3. Easy-to-Understand Chart: The Modified Fractals Indicator is designed to provide clear and easily identifiable signals on your chart, enhancing your trading experience.
4. User-Friendly Interface: This indicator is user-friendly and can be easily integrated into your TradingView setup.
How it Works:
The Modified Fractals Indicator scans the price action on your chart and identifies specific fractal patterns based on the criteria mentioned above for both UpFractals and DownFractals.
Usage:
- Add the Modified Fractals Indicator to your TradingView chart.
- Customize the settings, including the candle count and arrow size, to align with your trading strategy.
- Observe the chart for the appearance of UpFractals and DownFractals as marked by the indicator's arrows.
- Use the signals provided by the indicator to inform your trading decisions, such as potential entry or exit points.
Please note that this Modified Fractals Indicator offers a unique approach to fractal analysis, focusing on specific price patterns that differ from traditional Williams Fractals. It provides traders with an additional tool for identifying potential trend reversals and market opportunities.
Machine Learning: MFI Heat Map [YinYangAlgorithms]Overview:
MFI Heat Maps are a visually appealing way to display the values of 29 different MFIs at the same time while being able to make sense of it. Each plot within the Indicator represents a different MFI value. The higher you get up, the longer the length that was used for this MFI. This Indicator also features the use of Machine Learning to help balance the MFI levels. It doesn’t solely rely upon Machine Learning but instead incorporates a growing length MFI averaged with the Machine Learning MFI at any given index.
For instance, say we are calculating the 10th plot from the bottom, the MFI would be an average of:
MFI(source, 11)
Machine Learning MFI at Index of 10
We do it this way as they both help smooth each other out without relying solely on just one calculation method.
Due to plot limitations, you are capped at 28 Plot Amounts within this indicator, but that is still quite a bit of information you can glean from a Heat Map.
The Machine Learning used in this indicator is of the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). It uses a Fast and Slow MFI calculation then sorts through them over Machine Learning Length and calculates the differences between them. It then slices off KNN length to create our Max/Min Distances allotted. It adds the average between Fast and Slow MFIs to a Viable Distances array if their distances are within the KNN Min/Max distance. It then averages all distances in the Viable Distances array and returns the result.
The result of the KNN Function is saved to another ML Data array whose length is that of Plot Amount (Heat Map Size). This way each Index of the ML Data array can be indexed according to the Heat Map Size.
The Average of the ML Data array is the MFI line (white) that you’ll see plotted on the Indicator. There is also the SMA of the MFI Average (orange) which is likewise plotted. These plots allow you to visualize where the ML MFI is sitting and can potentially be useful for seeing when the MFI Average and SMA cross over and under each other.
We’ve heard many people talk highly of RSI, but sadly not too many even refer to MFI. MFI oftentimes may be overlooked, especially with new traders who may not even know what it is. Essentially MFI is an RSI but it also incorporates Volume into its calculations, which in our opinion leads to a more accurate reading; afterall, what is price movement without Volume.
Tutorial:
You may be thinking, this Indicator looks appealing to the eye, but how do I benefit from it trading wise?
Before we get into our visual examples, let's talk briefly about what makes Heat Maps in general a useful tool for trading. Heat Maps give us the ability to visualize and understand lots of data while removing the clutter. We can understand the data of 29 different MFIs without having to look at and decipher 29 different MFI plots. When you overlay too many MFI lines on top of each other, they can be very difficult to read and oftentimes end up actually hindering your Technical Analysis. For this reason, we have a simple solution to this problem; Heat Maps. This MFI Heat Map allows you to easily know (in a relative %) what the MFI level is for varying lengths. For Instance, the First (bottom) plot indexes an MFI of (K(0) (loop of Plot Amount) + Smoothing Length (default 1)) = 1. Since this is indexing (usually) a very low length, it will change much quicker. Whereas the Last (top) plot indexes an MFI of (K(27) (loop of Plot Amount) + Smoothing Length (default 1)) = 28. This is indexing a much higher length of MFI which results in the MFI the higher you go up in the Heat Map to move much slower.
Heat Maps give us the ability to see changes happening over multiple MFIs at the same time, which can be very useful for seeing shifts in MFI / Momentum. Remember, MFI incorporates Volume, so even if the price goes up a lot, if there was low volume, the MFI won’t move as much as an RSI would. However, likewise, if there is high volume but low price movement, the MFI will move slightly more than the RSI.
Heat Maps change color based on their MFI level. If the MFI is >= 90 it is HOT (red), if the MFI <= 9 it is COLD (teal, think of ICE). Green represents an MFI of 50-59 and Dark Blue represents an MFI of 40-49. Green and Dark blue are the most common colors as all the others are more ‘Extreme’ MFI levels.
Okay, time to get to the Examples :
Since there is so much going on in Heat Maps, we’ve decided to focus this tutorial to this specific area and talk about individual locations before talking about it as a whole.
If you refer to the example above where there are 2 white circles; these white circles are highlighting a key location you’ll be wanting to identify within your Heat Maps, many things are happening here:
The MFI crossed over the SMA (bullish).
The Heat Map started changing from mid/dark Blue (30-50 MFI) to Green (50-59 MFI) around the midline (the 50% dashed like).
The Lower levels of the Heat Map are turning Yellow/Orange/Red (60-100 MFI).
The Upper Levels of the Heat Map are still Light Blue - Green (10-50 MFI).
The 4 Key points above, all point towards potential Bullish Momentum changes. You’re likely wondering, but why? Let's discuss about each one in more specific detail:
1. The MFI crossed over the SMA (bullish): What this tells us is that the current MFI Average is now greater than its average over the last (default) 16 bars. This means there's been a large amount of Money Flow (Price and Volume) recently (subjectively based on the last (default) 16 average). This is one of the leading Bullish / Bearish signals you will see within this Indicator. You can enable Signals within the Settings and/or even add Alerts for when these crossings occur.
2. The Heat Map started changing from mid/dark Blue (30-50 MFI) to Green (50-59 MFI) around the midline (the 50% dashed like): This shows us that the index’s in the mid (if using all 28 heat map plots it would be at 14) has already received some of this momentum change. If you look at the second white circle (right), you’ll also notice the higher MFI plot indexes are also green. This is because since their length is long they still have some momentum and strength from the first white circle (left). Just because the first white circle failed in its bullish push, doesn’t mean it didn’t achieve momentum that would later on help to push the price up.
3. The Lower levels of the Heat Map are turning Yellow/Orange/Red (60-100 MFI): It occurred somewhat in the left white circle, but mainly in the right white circle. This shows us the MFI is very high on the lower lengths, this may lead to the current, middle and higher length MFIs following suit soon. Remember it has to work its way up, the higher levels can’t go red unless the lower levels go red first and the higher levels can also lag quite a bit behind and take awhile to catch up, this is normal, expected and meant to happen. Vice versa is also true with getting higher levels to go cold (light teal (think of ICE)).
4. The Upper Levels of the Heat Map are still Light Blue - Green (10-50 MFI): You might think at first that this is a bad thing, but it's not! Remember you want to be Fearful when others are Greedy and Greedy when others are Fearful! You don’t want to buy when the higher levels have a high MFI, you want to buy when you see the momentum pushing up in the lower MFI levels (getting yellow/orange/red in the low levels) while it is still Cold in the higher levels (BLUE OR GREEN, nothing higher than green as it is already slightly too high). There will be many times that it is Yellow or possibly Orange in the high levels and the bullish push still happens, but this is much more risky! The key to trading is to minimize risks while maximizing potential.
Hopefully now you’re getting an idea of how to spot potential bullish momentum changes, but what about bearish momentum changes? Technically they are the exact opposite, so we don’t need to go into as much detail, but lets still take a look at a few examples:
In the example above we marked the 3 times where it was displaying overly bullish characteristics. We marked the bullish momentum occurring with arrows. If you look closely at the start of the arrow to where it finishes, you’ll notice how the heat (HOT)(RED) works its way up from the lower levels to the higher levels. We then see the MFI to SMA cross under. In all 3 of these examples the heat made it all the way to the top of the chart. These are all very bearish signals that represent a bearish momentum movement that may occur soon.
Also, please note, the level the MFI is at DOES matter! That line isn’t there simply for you to see when there are crosses over and under. The MFI is considered to be Overbought when it is greater than 70 (the upper white dashed line, it is just formatted to be on a different scale cause there are 28 plots, but it represents 70). The MFI is considered to be Oversold when it is less than 30 (the lower white dashed line).
If we look to the left a little here where a big drop in price occurred shortly after our MFI and SMA crossed, would we have been able to identify it using the Heat Maps? Likely, No. There was some color change in the lower levels a few bars prior that went yellow/orange/red but before this cross happened they all went back to Dark Blue. In the middle section when the cross happened it was only Green and Yellow and in the upper section we are Blue. This would be a very risky trade to go on as the only real Bearish Indication was the MFI to SMA cross under. Remember, you want to reduce risk, you don’t want to simply trade on everytime the MFI and SMA cross each other or you’ll be getting yourself into many risky trades based on false signals.
Based on what you’ve learned above, can you see the signs that are indicating where this white circle may have potential for a bullish momentum change?
Now that we are more zoomed in, you may also be noticing there are colors to the price bars. This can be disabled in the settings, but just so you know what they mean, let’s zoom in a little more and talk about it.
We’ve condensed the Indicator a bit so you can see the bars better here. The colors that are displayed on these bars are the Heat Map value for your MFI (the white line in the Indicator). This way you can better see when the Price is Hot and Cold. As you may see while looking, the colors generally go from cold to hot when bullish momentum is happening and hot to cold when bearish momentum is happening. We don’t recommend solely looking at the bars as indicators to MFI momentum change, as seeing the Heat Map will give you much more data; however it can be nice to see the Heat Map projected on the bars rather than trying to eyeball it yourself or hover over each bar specifically to see their levels.
We will conclude our Tutorial here. Hopefully this has given you some insight to how useful Heat Maps can be and why it works well with a Machine Learning (KNN) Model applied to the MFI.
PLEASE NOTE: You can adjust the line width for the Heat Map within the settings. If you condense the Indicator a lot or have a small screen, likely use a length of 1-2. If you have it stretched out or a large screen, a length of 2-3 will work nice. You just don’t want to have the lines overlapping or it defeats the purpose of a Heat Map. Also, the bigger the linewidth, generally you’ll want to increase the Transparency within the Settings also as it can get quite bright and hurt your eyes over time.
Settings:
MFI:
Show MFI and SMA Crossing Signals: MFI and SMA Crossing is one of the leading Bullish and Bearish Signals in this Indicator. You can also add alerts for these signals.
Plot Amount: How many plots are used in this Heat Map. (2 - 28).
Source: The Source to use in all MFI calculations.
Smooth Initial MFI Length: How much to smooth the Fast and Slow MFI calculation by. 1 = No smoothing.
MFI SMA Length: What length we smooth the MFI Average over to get our MFI SMA.
Machine Learning:
Average MFI data by adding a lookback to the Source: While populating our Heat Map with the MFI's, should use use the Source each MFI Length increase or should we also lookback a Source each MFI Length Increase.
KNN Distance Requirement: To be a valid KNN, it needs to abide by a Distance calculation. Generally only Max is used, but you can change it if it suits your trading style better.
Machine Learning Length: How much ML data should we store? The longer the length generally the smoother the result; which may not be as accurate for something like a Heat Map, so keeping this relatively low may lead to more accurate results.
KNN Length: How many KNN are used in the slice to calculate max/min distance allowed.
Fast Length: Fast MFI length used in KNN to calculate distances by comparing its distance with the Slow MFI Length.
Slow Length: Slow MFI length used in KNN to calculate distances by comparing its distance with the Fast MFI Length.
Smoothing Length: When populating our Heat Map, at what length do we start our MFI calculations with (A Higher value with result in a slower and more smoothed MFI / Heat Map).
Colors:
Change Bar Color: Change bar colors to MFI Avg Color.
Heat Map Transparency: If there isn't any transparency it can be a little hard on the eyes. The Greater the Line Width, generally the more transparency you'll want for your eyes.
Line Width: Set how wide the Heat Map lines are
MFI 90-100 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
MFI 80-89 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
MFI 70-79 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
MFI 60-69 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
MFI 50-59 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
MFI 40-49 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
MFI 30-39 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
MFI 20-29 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
MFI 10-19 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
MFI 0-100 Color: Color when the MFI is between these levels.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
