CT Reverse True Strength IndicatorIntroducing the Caretakers Reverse True Strength Index.
According to Wikipedia….
“The True Strength Index (TSI) is a technical indicator used in the analysis of financial markets that attempts to show both trend direction and overbought/oversold conditions. It was first published William Blau in 1991.
The indicator uses moving averages of the underlying momentum of a financial instrument.
Momentum is considered a leading indicator of price movements, and a moving average characteristically lags behind price.
The TSI combines these characteristics to create an indication of price and direction more in sync with market turns than either momentum or moving average.”
The TSI has a normal range of values between +100 and -100.
Traditionally traders and analysts will consider:
Positives values above 25 to indicate an “overbought” condition
Negative values below -25 to indicate an “oversold” condition
I have reverse engineered the True Strength Index formula to derive 2 new functions.
The reverse TSI function is dual purpose which can be used to calculate….
The chart price at which the TSI will reach a particular TSI scale value.
The chart price at which the TSI will equal its previous value.
The reverse TSI signal cross function can be used to calculate the chart price at which the TSI will cross its signal line.
I have employed these functions here to return the price levels where the True Strength Index would equal :
Upper alert level ( default 25 )
Zero-Line
Lower alert level ( default -25 )
Previous TSI (eq) value.
TSI signal line
These crossover levels are displayed via an optional info-box with choice of user selected info.
How to interpret the displayed prices returned from the TSI scale zero line and upper and lower alert levels.
Closing exactly at the given price will cause the True Strength Index value to equal the scale value.
Closing above the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross above the scale value.
Closing below the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross below the scale value.
How to interpret the displayed price returned from the TSI (eq)
Closing exactly at the price will cause the True Strength Index value to equal the previous TSI value.
Closing above the price will cause the True Strength Index value to increase.
Closing below the price will cause the True Strength Index value to decrease.
How to interpret the displayed price returned from the TSI signal line crossover.
Closing exactly at the given price will cause the True Strength Index value to equal the signal line.
Closing above the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross above the signal line.
Closing below the given price will cause the True Strength Index to cross below the signal line.
Common methods to derive signals from the TSI :
Zero-line crossovers
When the CMO crosses above the zero-line, a buy signal is generated.
When the CMO crosses below the zero-line, a sell signal is generated.
“Overbought” and “Oversold” crossover
When the SMI crosses below -25 and then moves back above it, a buy signal is generated.
When the SMI crosses above +25 and then moves back below it, a sell signal is generated.
What Does the True Strength Index (TSI) Tell You?
The indicator is primarily used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in an asset's price, spot divergence, identify trend direction and changes via the zero-line, and highlight short-term price momentum with signal line crossovers.
Since the TSI is based on price movements, oversold and overbought levels will vary by the asset being traded. Some stocks may reach +30 and -30 before tending to see price reversals, while another stock may reverse near +20 and -20.
Mark extreme TSI levels, on the asset being traded, to see where overbought and oversold is. Being oversold doesn't necessarily mean it is time to buy, and when an asset is overbought it doesn't necessarily mean it is time to sell. Traders will typically watch for other signals to trigger a trade decision. For example, they may wait for the price or TSI to start dropping before selling in overbought territory. Alternatively, they may wait for a signal line crossover.
Signal Line Crossovers
The true strength index has a signal line, which is usually a seven- to 13-period EMA of the TSI line. A signal line crossover occurs when the TSI line crosses the signal line. When the TSI crosses above the signal line from below, that may warrant a long position. When the TSI crosses below the signal line from above, that may warrant selling or short selling.
Signal line crossovers occur frequently, so should be utilized only in conjunction with other signals from the TSI. For example, buy signals may be favoured when the TSI is above the zero-line. Or sell signals may be favoured when the TSI is in overbought territory.
Zero-line Crossovers
The zero-line crossover is another signal the TSI generates. Price momentum is positive when the indicator is above zero and negative when it is below zero. Some traders use the zero-line for a directional bias. For example, a trader may decide only to enter a long position if the indicator is above its zero-line. Conversely, the trader would be bearish and only consider short positions if the indicator's value is below zero.
Breakouts and Divergence
Traders can use support and resistance levels created by the true strength index to identify breakouts and price momentum shifts. For instance, if the indicator breaks below a trendline, the price may see continued selling.
Divergence is another tool the TSI provides. If the price of an asset is moving higher, while the TSI is dropping, that is called bearish divergence and could result in a downside price move. If the TSI is rising while the price is falling, that could signal higher prices to come. This is called bullish divergence.
Divergence is a poor timing signal, so it should only be used in conjunction with other signals generated by the TSI or other technical indicators.
The Difference Between the True Strength Index (TSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Indicator.
The TSI is smoothing price changes to create a technical oscillator. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is measuring the separation between two moving averages. Both indicators are used in similar ways for trading purposes, yet they are not calculated the same and will provide different signals at different times.
The Limitations of Using the True Strength Index (TSI)
Many of the signals provided by the TSI will be false signals. That means the price action will be different than expected following a trade signal. For example, during an uptrend, the TSI may cross below the zero-line several times, but then the price proceeds higher even though the TSI indicates momentum has shifted down.
Signal line crossovers also occur so frequently that they may not provide a lot of trading benefit. Such signals need to be heavily filtered based on other elements of the indicator or through other forms of analysis. The TSI will also sometimes change direction without price changing direction, resulting in trade signals that look good on the TSI but continue to lose money based on price.
Divergence also tends to unreliable on the indicator. Divergence can last so long that it provides little insight into when a reversal will actually occur. Also, divergence isn't always present when price reversals actually do occur.
The TSI should only be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as price action analysis and other technical indicators.
This is not financial advice, use at your own risk.
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Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Vince, R., & Zhu, H. (2015). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 161, 19-31.
Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
Fear and Greed Index [DunesIsland]The Fear and Greed Index is a sentiment indicator designed to measure the emotions driving the stock market, specifically investor fear and greed. Fear represents pessimism and caution, while greed reflects optimism and risk-taking. This indicator aggregates multiple market metrics to provide a comprehensive view of market sentiment, helping traders and investors gauge whether the market is overly fearful or excessively greedy.How It WorksThe Fear and Greed Index is calculated using four key market indicators, each capturing a different aspect of market sentiment:
Market Momentum (30% weight)
Measures how the S&P 500 (SPX) is performing relative to its 125-day simple moving average (SMA).
A higher value indicates that the market is trading well above its moving average, signaling greed.
Stock Price Strength (20% weight)
Calculates the net number of stocks hitting 52-week highs minus those hitting 52-week lows on the NYSE.
A greater number of net highs suggests strong market breadth and greed.
Put/Call Options (30% weight)
Uses the 5-day average of the put/call ratio.
A lower ratio (more call options being bought) indicates greed, as investors are betting on rising prices.
Market Volatility (20% weight)
Utilizes the VIX index, which measures market volatility.
Lower volatility is associated with greed, as investors are less fearful of large market swings.
Each component is normalized using a z-score over a 252-day lookback period (approximately one trading year) and scaled to a range of 0 to 100. The final Fear and Greed Index is a weighted average of these four components, with the weights specified above.Key FeaturesIndex Range: The index value ranges from 0 to 100:
0–25: Extreme Fear (red)
25–50: Fear (orange)
50–75: Neutral (yellow)
75–100: Greed (green)
Dynamic Plot Color: The plot line changes color based on the index value, visually indicating the current sentiment zone.
Reference Lines: Horizontal lines are plotted at 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 to represent the different sentiment levels: Extreme Fear, Fear, Neutral, Greed, and Extreme Greed.
How to Interpret
Low Values (0–25): Indicate extreme fear, which may suggest that the market is oversold and could be due for a rebound.
High Values (75–100): Indicate greed, which may signal that the market is overbought and could be at risk of a correction.
Neutral Range (25–75): Suggests a balanced market sentiment, neither overly fearful nor greedy.
This indicator is a valuable tool for contrarian investors, as extreme readings often precede market reversals. However, it should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools for a well-rounded view of the market.
Market Zone Analyzer[BullByte]Understanding the Market Zone Analyzer
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1. Purpose of the Indicator
The Market Zone Analyzer is a Pine Script™ (version 6) indicator designed to streamline market analysis on TradingView. Rather than scanning multiple separate tools, it unifies four core dimensions—trend strength, momentum, price action, and market activity—into a single, consolidated view. By doing so, it helps traders:
• Save time by avoiding manual cross-referencing of disparate signals.
• Reduce decision-making errors that can arise from juggling multiple indicators.
• Gain a clear, reliable read on whether the market is in a bullish, bearish, or sideways phase, so they can more confidently decide to enter, exit, or hold a position.
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2. Why a Trader Should Use It
• Unified View: Combines all essential market dimensions into one easy-to-read score and dashboard, eliminating the need to piece together signals manually.
• Adaptability: Automatically adjusts its internal weighting for trend, momentum, and price action based on current volatility. Whether markets are choppy or calm, the indicator remains relevant.
• Ease of Interpretation: Outputs a simple “BULLISH,” “BEARISH,” or “SIDEWAYS” label, supplemented by an intuitive on-chart dashboard and an oscillator plot that visually highlights market direction.
• Reliability Features: Built-in smoothing of the net score and hysteresis logic (requiring consecutive confirmations before flips) minimize false signals during noisy or range-bound phases.
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3. Why These Specific Indicators?
This script relies on a curated set of well-established technical tools, each chosen for its particular strength in measuring one of the four core dimensions:
1. Trend Strength:
• ADX/DMI (Average Directional Index / Directional Movement Index): Measures how strong a trend is, and whether the +DI line is above the –DI line (bullish) or vice versa (bearish).
• Moving Average Slope (Fast MA vs. Slow MA): Compares a shorter-period SMA to a longer-period SMA; if the fast MA sits above the slow MA, it confirms an uptrend, and vice versa for a downtrend.
• Ichimoku Cloud Differential (Senkou A vs. Senkou B): Provides a forward-looking view of trend direction; Senkou A above Senkou B signals bullishness, and the opposite signals bearishness.
2. Momentum:
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Identifies overbought (above its dynamically calculated upper bound) or oversold (below its lower bound) conditions; changes in RSI often precede price reversals.
• Stochastic %K: Highlights shifts in short-term momentum by comparing closing price to the recent high/low range; values above its upper band signal bullish momentum, below its lower band signal bearish momentum.
• MACD Histogram: Measures the difference between the MACD line and its signal line; a positive histogram indicates upward momentum, a negative histogram indicates downward momentum.
3. Price Action:
• Highest High / Lowest Low (HH/LL) Range: Over a defined lookback period, this captures breakout or breakdown levels. A closing price near the recent highs (with a positive MA slope) yields a bullish score, and near the lows (with a negative MA slope) yields a bearish score.
• Heikin-Ashi Doji Detection: Uses Heikin-Ashi candles to identify indecision or continuation patterns. A small Heikin-Ashi body (doji) relative to recent volatility is scored as neutral; a larger body in the direction of the MA slope is scored bullish or bearish.
• Candle Range Measurement: Compares each candle’s high-low range against its own dynamic band (average range ± standard deviation). Large candles aligning with the prevailing trend score bullish or bearish accordingly; unusually small candles can indicate exhaustion or consolidation.
4. Market Activity:
• Bollinger Bands Width (BBW): Measures the distance between BB upper and lower bands; wide bands indicate high volatility, narrow bands indicate low volatility.
• Average True Range (ATR): Quantifies average price movement (volatility). A sudden spike in ATR suggests a volatile environment, while a contraction suggests calm.
• Keltner Channels Width (KCW): Similar to BBW but uses ATR around an EMA. Provides a second layer of volatility context, confirming or contrasting BBW readings.
• Volume (with Moving Average): Compares current volume to its moving average ± standard deviation. High volume validates strong moves; low volume signals potential lack of conviction.
By combining these tools, the indicator captures trend direction, momentum strength, price-action nuances, and overall market energy, yielding a more balanced and comprehensive assessment than any single tool alone.
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4. What Makes This Indicator Stand Out
• Multi-Dimensional Analysis: Rather than relying on a lone oscillator or moving average crossover, it simultaneously evaluates trend, momentum, price action, and activity.
• Dynamic Weighting: The relative importance of trend, momentum, and price action adjusts automatically based on real-time volatility (Market Activity State). For example, in highly volatile conditions, trend and momentum signals carry more weight; in calm markets, price action signals are prioritized.
• Stability Mechanisms:
• Smoothing: The net score is passed through a short moving average, filtering out noise, especially on lower timeframes.
• Hysteresis: Both Market Activity State and the final bullish/bearish/sideways zone require two consecutive confirmations before flipping, reducing whipsaw.
• Visual Interpretation: A fully customizable on-chart dashboard displays each sub-indicator’s value, regime, score, and comment, all color-coded. The oscillator plot changes color to reflect the current market zone (green for bullish, red for bearish, gray for sideways) and shows horizontal threshold lines at +2, 0, and –2.
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5. Recommended Timeframes
• Short-Term (5 min, 15 min): Day traders and scalpers can benefit from rapid signals, but should enable smoothing (and possibly disable hysteresis) to reduce false whipsaws.
• Medium-Term (1 h, 4 h): Swing traders find a balance between responsiveness and reliability. Less smoothing is required here, and the default parameters (e.g., ADX length = 14, RSI length = 14) perform well.
• Long-Term (Daily, Weekly): Position traders tracking major trends can disable smoothing for immediate raw readings, since higher-timeframe noise is minimal. Adjust lookback lengths (e.g., increase adxLength, rsiLength) if desired for slower signals.
Tip: If you keep smoothing off, stick to timeframes of 1 h or higher to avoid excessive signal “chatter.”
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6. How Scoring Works
A. Individual Indicator Scores
Each sub-indicator is assigned one of three discrete scores:
• +1 if it indicates a bullish condition (e.g., RSI above its dynamically calculated upper bound).
• 0 if it is neutral (e.g., RSI between upper and lower bounds).
• –1 if it indicates a bearish condition (e.g., RSI below its dynamically calculated lower bound).
Examples of individual score assignments:
• ADX/DMI:
• +1 if ADX ≥ adxThreshold and +DI > –DI (strong bullish trend)
• –1 if ADX ≥ adxThreshold and –DI > +DI (strong bearish trend)
• 0 if ADX < adxThreshold (trend strength below threshold)
• RSI:
• +1 if RSI > RSI_upperBound
• –1 if RSI < RSI_lowerBound
• 0 otherwise
• ATR (as part of Market Activity):
• +1 if ATR > (ATR_MA + stdev(ATR))
• –1 if ATR < (ATR_MA – stdev(ATR))
• 0 otherwise
Each of the four main categories shares this same +1/0/–1 logic across their sub-components.
B. Category Scores
Once each sub-indicator reports +1, 0, or –1, these are summed within their categories as follows:
• Trend Score = (ADX score) + (MA slope score) + (Ichimoku differential score)
• Momentum Score = (RSI score) + (Stochastic %K score) + (MACD histogram score)
• Price Action Score = (Highest-High/Lowest-Low score) + (Heikin-Ashi doji score) + (Candle range score)
• Market Activity Raw Score = (BBW score) + (ATR score) + (KC width score) + (Volume score)
Each category’s summed value can range between –3 and +3 (for Trend, Momentum, and Price Action), and between –4 and +4 for Market Activity raw.
C. Market Activity State and Dynamic Weight Adjustments
Rather than contributing directly to the netScore like the other three categories, Market Activity determines how much weight to assign to Trend, Momentum, and Price Action:
1. Compute Market Activity Raw Score by summing BBW, ATR, KCW, and Volume individual scores (each +1/0/–1).
2. Bucket into High, Medium, or Low Activity:
• High if raw Score ≥ 2 (volatile market).
• Low if raw Score ≤ –2 (calm market).
• Medium otherwise.
3. Apply Hysteresis (if enabled): The state only flips after two consecutive bars register the same high/low/medium label.
4. Set Category Weights:
• High Activity: Trend = 50 %, Momentum = 35 %, Price Action = 15 %.
• Low Activity: Trend = 25 %, Momentum = 20 %, Price Action = 55 %.
• Medium Activity: Use the trader’s base weight inputs (e.g., Trend = 40 %, Momentum = 30 %, Price Action = 30 % by default).
D. Calculating the Net Score
5. Normalize Base Weights (so that the sum of Trend + Momentum + Price Action always equals 100 %).
6. Determine Current Weights based on the Market Activity State (High/Medium/Low).
7. Compute Each Category’s Contribution: Multiply (categoryScore) × (currentWeight).
8. Sum Contributions to get the raw netScore (a floating-point value that can exceed ±3 when scores are strong).
9. Smooth the netScore over two bars (if smoothing is enabled) to reduce noise.
10. Apply Hysteresis to the Final Zone:
• If the smoothed netScore ≥ +2, the bar is classified as “Bullish.”
• If the smoothed netScore ≤ –2, the bar is classified as “Bearish.”
• Otherwise, it is “Sideways.”
• To prevent rapid flips, the script requires two consecutive bars in the new zone before officially changing the displayed zone (if hysteresis is on).
E. Thresholds for Zone Classification
• BULLISH: netScore ≥ +2
• BEARISH: netScore ≤ –2
• SIDEWAYS: –2 < netScore < +2
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7. Role of Volatility (Market Activity State) in Scoring
Volatility acts as a dynamic switch that shifts which category carries the most influence:
1. High Activity (Volatile):
• Detected when at least two sub-scores out of BBW, ATR, KCW, and Volume equal +1.
• The script sets Trend weight = 50 % and Momentum weight = 35 %. Price Action weight is minimized at 15 %.
• Rationale: In volatile markets, strong trending moves and momentum surges dominate, so those signals are more reliable than nuanced candle patterns.
2. Low Activity (Calm):
• Detected when at least two sub-scores out of BBW, ATR, KCW, and Volume equal –1.
• The script sets Price Action weight = 55 %, Trend = 25 %, and Momentum = 20 %.
• Rationale: In quiet, sideways markets, subtle price-action signals (breakouts, doji patterns, small-range candles) are often the best early indicators of a new move.
3. Medium Activity (Balanced):
• Raw Score between –1 and +1 from the four volatility metrics.
• Uses whatever base weights the trader has specified (e.g., Trend = 40 %, Momentum = 30 %, Price Action = 30 %).
Because volatility can fluctuate rapidly, the script employs hysteresis on Market Activity State: a new High or Low state must occur on two consecutive bars before weights actually shift. This avoids constant back-and-forth weight changes and provides more stability.
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8. Scoring Example (Hypothetical Scenario)
• Symbol: Bitcoin on a 1-hour chart.
• Market Activity: Raw volatility sub-scores show BBW (+1), ATR (+1), KCW (0), Volume (+1) → Total raw Score = +3 → High Activity.
• Weights Selected: Trend = 50 %, Momentum = 35 %, Price Action = 15 %.
• Trend Signals:
• ADX strong and +DI > –DI → +1
• Fast MA above Slow MA → +1
• Ichimoku Senkou A > Senkou B → +1
→ Trend Score = +3
• Momentum Signals:
• RSI above upper bound → +1
• MACD histogram positive → +1
• Stochastic %K within neutral zone → 0
→ Momentum Score = +2
• Price Action Signals:
• Highest High/Lowest Low check yields 0 (close not near extremes)
• Heikin-Ashi doji reading is neutral → 0
• Candle range slightly above upper bound but trend is strong, so → +1
→ Price Action Score = +1
• Compute Net Score (before smoothing):
• Trend contribution = 3 × 0.50 = 1.50
• Momentum contribution = 2 × 0.35 = 0.70
• Price Action contribution = 1 × 0.15 = 0.15
• Raw netScore = 1.50 + 0.70 + 0.15 = 2.35
• Since 2.35 ≥ +2 and hysteresis is met, the final zone is “Bullish.”
Although the netScore lands at 2.35 (Bullish), smoothing might bring it slightly below 2.00 on the first bar (e.g., 1.90), in which case the script would wait for a second consecutive reading above +2 before officially classifying the zone as Bullish (if hysteresis is enabled).
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9. Correlation Between Categories
The four categories—Trend Strength, Momentum, Price Action, and Market Activity—often reinforce or offset one another. The script takes advantage of these natural correlations:
• Bullish Alignment: If ADX is strong and pointed upward, fast MA is above slow MA, and Ichimoku is positive, that usually coincides with RSI climbing above its upper bound and the MACD histogram turning positive. In such cases, both Trend and Momentum categories generate +1 or +2. Because the Market Activity State is likely High (given the accompanying volatility), Trend and Momentum weights are at their peak, so the netScore quickly crosses into Bullish territory.
• Sideways/Consolidation: During a low-volatility, sideways phase, ADX may fall below its threshold, MAs may flatten, and RSI might hover in the neutral band. However, subtle price-action signals (like a small breakout candle or a Heikin-Ashi candle with a slight bias) can still produce a +1 in the Price Action category. If Market Activity is Low, Price Action’s weight (55 %) can carry enough influence—even if Trend and Momentum are neutral—to push the netScore out of “Sideways” into a mild bullish or bearish bias.
• Opposing Signals: When Trend is bullish but Momentum turns negative (for example, price continues up but RSI rolls over), the two scores can partially cancel. Market Activity may remain Medium, in which case the netScore lingers near zero (Sideways). The trader can then wait for either a clearer momentum shift or a fresh price-action breakout before committing.
By dynamically recognizing these correlations and adjusting weights, the indicator ensures that:
• When Trend and Momentum align (and volatility supports it), the netScore leaps strongly into Bullish or Bearish.
• When Trend is neutral but Price Action shows an early move in a low-volatility environment, Price Action’s extra weight in the Low Activity State can still produce actionable signals.
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10. Market Activity State & Its Role (Detailed)
The Market Activity State is not a direct category score—it is an overarching context setter for how heavily to trust Trend, Momentum, or Price Action. Here’s how it is derived and applied:
1. Calculate Four Volatility Sub-Scores:
• BBW: Compare the current band width to its own moving average ± standard deviation. If BBW > (BBW_MA + stdev), assign +1 (high volatility); if BBW < (BBW_MA × 0.5), assign –1 (low volatility); else 0.
• ATR: Compare ATR to its moving average ± standard deviation. A spike above the upper threshold is +1; a contraction below the lower threshold is –1; otherwise 0.
• KCW: Same logic as ATR but around the KCW mean.
• Volume: Compare current volume to its volume MA ± standard deviation. Above the upper threshold is +1; below the lower threshold is –1; else 0.
2. Sum Sub-Scores → Raw Market Activity Score: Range between –4 and +4.
3. Assign Market Activity State:
• High Activity: Raw Score ≥ +2 (at least two volatility metrics are strongly spiking).
• Low Activity: Raw Score ≤ –2 (at least two metrics signal unusually low volatility or thin volume).
• Medium Activity: Raw Score is between –1 and +1 inclusive.
4. Hysteresis for Stability:
• If hysteresis is enabled, a new state only takes hold after two consecutive bars confirm the same High, Medium, or Low label.
• This prevents the Market Activity State from bouncing around when volatility is on the fence.
5. Set Category Weights Based on Activity State:
• High Activity: Trend = 50 %, Momentum = 35 %, Price Action = 15 %.
• Low Activity: Trend = 25 %, Momentum = 20 %, Price Action = 55 %.
• Medium Activity: Use trader’s base weights (e.g., Trend = 40 %, Momentum = 30 %, Price Action = 30 %).
6. Impact on netScore: Because category scores (–3 to +3) multiply by these weights, High Activity amplifies the effect of strong Trend and Momentum scores; Low Activity amplifies the effect of Price Action.
7. Market Context Tooltip: The dashboard includes a tooltip summarizing the current state—e.g., “High activity, trend and momentum prioritized,” “Low activity, price action prioritized,” or “Balanced market, all categories considered.”
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11. Category Weights: Base vs. Dynamic
Traders begin by specifying base weights for Trend Strength, Momentum, and Price Action that sum to 100 %. These apply only when volatility is in the Medium band. Once volatility shifts:
• High Volatility Overrides:
• Trend jumps from its base (e.g., 40 %) to 50 %.
• Momentum jumps from its base (e.g., 30 %) to 35 %.
• Price Action is reduced to 15 %.
Example: If base weights were Trend = 40 %, Momentum = 30 %, Price Action = 30 %, then in High Activity they become 50/35/15. A Trend score of +3 now contributes 3 × 0.50 = +1.50 to netScore; a Momentum +2 contributes 2 × 0.35 = +0.70. In total, Trend + Momentum can easily push netScore above the +2 threshold on its own.
• Low Volatility Overrides:
• Price Action leaps from its base (30 %) to 55 %.
• Trend falls to 25 %, Momentum falls to 20 %.
Why? When markets are quiet, subtle candle breakouts, doji patterns, and small-range expansions tend to foreshadow the next swing more effectively than raw trend readings. A Price Action score of +3 in this state contributes 3 × 0.55 = +1.65, which can carry the netScore toward +2—even if Trend and Momentum are neutral or only mildly positive.
Because these weight shifts happen only after two consecutive bars confirm a High or Low state (if hysteresis is on), the indicator avoids constantly flipping its emphasis during borderline volatility phases.
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12. Dominant Category Explained
Within the dashboard, a label such as “Trend Dominant,” “Momentum Dominant,” or “Price Action Dominant” appears when one category’s absolute weighted contribution to netScore is the largest. Concretely:
• Compute each category’s weighted contribution = (raw category score) × (current weight).
• Compare the absolute values of those three contributions.
• The category with the highest absolute value is flagged as Dominant for that bar.
Why It Matters:
• Momentum Dominant: Indicates that the combined force of RSI, Stochastic, and MACD (after weighting) is pushing netScore farther than either Trend or Price Action. In practice, it means that short-term sentiment and speed of change are the primary drivers right now, so traders should watch for continued momentum signals before committing to a trade.
• Trend Dominant: Means ADX, MA slope, and Ichimoku (once weighted) outweigh the other categories. This suggests a strong directional move is in place; trend-following entries or confirming pullbacks are likely to succeed.
• Price Action Dominant: Occurs when breakout/breakdown patterns, Heikin-Ashi candle readings, and range expansions (after weighting) are the most influential. This often happens in calmer markets, where subtle shifts in candle structure can foreshadow bigger moves.
By explicitly calling out which category is carrying the most weight at any moment, the dashboard gives traders immediate insight into why the netScore is tilting toward bullish, bearish, or sideways.
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13. Oscillator Plot: How to Read It
The “Net Score” oscillator sits below the dashboard and visually displays the smoothed netScore as a line graph. Key features:
1. Value Range: In normal conditions it oscillates roughly between –3 and +3, but extreme confluences can push it outside that range.
2. Horizontal Threshold Lines:
• +2 Line (Bullish threshold)
• 0 Line (Neutral midline)
• –2 Line (Bearish threshold)
3. Zone Coloring:
• Green Background (Bullish Zone): When netScore ≥ +2.
• Red Background (Bearish Zone): When netScore ≤ –2.
• Gray Background (Sideways Zone): When –2 < netScore < +2.
4. Dynamic Line Color:
• The plotted netScore line itself is colored green in a Bullish Zone, red in a Bearish Zone, or gray in a Sideways Zone, creating an immediate visual cue.
Interpretation Tips:
• Crossing Above +2: Signals a strong enough combined trend/momentum/price-action reading to classify as Bullish. Many traders wait for a clear crossing plus a confirmation candle before entering a long position.
• Crossing Below –2: Indicates a strong Bearish signal. Traders may consider short or exit strategies.
• Rising Slope, Even Below +2: If netScore climbs steadily from neutral toward +2, it demonstrates building bullish momentum.
• Divergence: If price makes a higher high but the oscillator fails to reach a new high, it can warn of weakening momentum and a potential reversal.
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14. Comments and Their Necessity
Every sub-indicator (ADX, MA slope, Ichimoku, RSI, Stochastic, MACD, HH/LL, Heikin-Ashi, Candle Range, BBW, ATR, KCW, Volume) generates a short comment that appears in the detailed dashboard. Examples:
• “Strong bullish trend” or “Strong bearish trend” for ADX/DMI
• “Fast MA above slow MA” or “Fast MA below slow MA” for MA slope
• “RSI above dynamic threshold” or “RSI below dynamic threshold” for RSI
• “MACD histogram positive” or “MACD histogram negative” for MACD Hist
• “Price near highs” or “Price near lows” for HH/LL checks
• “Bullish Heikin Ashi” or “Bearish Heikin Ashi” for HA Doji scoring
• “Large range, trend confirmed” or “Small range, trend contradicted” for Candle Range
Additionally, the top-row comment for each category is:
• Trend: “Highly Bullish,” “Highly Bearish,” or “Neutral Trend.”
• Momentum: “Strong Momentum,” “Weak Momentum,” or “Neutral Momentum.”
• Price Action: “Bullish Action,” “Bearish Action,” or “Neutral Action.”
• Market Activity: “Volatile Market,” “Calm Market,” or “Stable Market.”
Reasons for These Comments:
• Transparency: Shows exactly how each sub-indicator contributed to its category score.
• Education: Helps traders learn why a category is labeled bullish, bearish, or neutral, building intuition over time.
• Customization: If, for example, the RSI comment says “RSI neutral” despite an impending trend shift, a trader might choose to adjust RSI length or thresholds.
In the detailed dashboard, hovering over each comment cell also reveals a tooltip with additional context (e.g., “Fast MA above slow MA” or “Senkou A above Senkou B”), helping traders understand the precise rule behind that +1, 0, or –1 assignment.
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15. Real-Life Example (Consolidated)
• Instrument & Timeframe: Bitcoin (BTCUSD), 1-hour chart.
• Current Market Activity: BBW and ATR both spike (+1 each), KCW is moderately high (+1), but volume is only neutral (0) → Raw Market Activity Score = +2 → State = High Activity (after two bars, if hysteresis is on).
• Category Weights Applied: Trend = 50 %, Momentum = 35 %, Price Action = 15 %.
• Trend Sub-Scores:
1. ADX = 25 (above threshold 20) with +DI > –DI → +1.
2. Fast MA (20-period) sits above Slow MA (50-period) → +1.
3. Ichimoku: Senkou A > Senkou B → +1.
→ Trend Score = +3.
• Momentum Sub-Scores:
4. RSI = 75 (above its moving average +1 stdev) → +1.
5. MACD histogram = +0.15 → +1.
6. Stochastic %K = 50 (mid-range) → 0.
→ Momentum Score = +2.
• Price Action Sub-Scores:
7. Price is not within 1 % of the 20-period high/low and slope = positive → 0.
8. Heikin-Ashi body is slightly larger than stdev over last 5 bars with haClose > haOpen → +1.
9. Candle range is just above its dynamic upper bound but trend is already captured, so → +1.
→ Price Action Score = +2.
• Calculate netScore (before smoothing):
• Trend contribution = 3 × 0.50 = 1.50
• Momentum contribution = 2 × 0.35 = 0.70
• Price Action contribution = 2 × 0.15 = 0.30
• Raw netScore = 1.50 + 0.70 + 0.30 = 2.50 → Immediately classified as Bullish.
• Oscillator & Dashboard Output:
• The oscillator line crosses above +2 and turns green.
• Dashboard displays:
• Trend Regime “BULLISH,” Trend Score = 3, Comment = “Highly Bullish.”
• Momentum Regime “BULLISH,” Momentum Score = 2, Comment = “Strong Momentum.”
• Price Action Regime “BULLISH,” Price Action Score = 2, Comment = “Bullish Action.”
• Market Activity State “High,” Comment = “Volatile Market.”
• Weights: Trend 50 %, Momentum 35 %, Price Action 15 %.
• Dominant Category: Trend (because 1.50 > 0.70 > 0.30).
• Overall Score: 2.50, posCount = (three +1s in Trend) + (two +1s in Momentum) + (two +1s in Price Action) = 7 bullish signals, negCount = 0.
• Final Zone = “BULLISH.”
• The trader sees that both Trend and Momentum are reinforcing each other under high volatility. They might wait one more candle for confirmation but already have strong evidence to consider a long.
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Disclaimer
This indicator is strictly a technical analysis tool and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Traders should:
• Always backtest the “Market Zone Analyzer ” on their chosen symbols and timeframes before committing real capital.
• Combine this tool with sound risk management, position sizing, and, if possible, fundamental analysis.
• Understand that no indicator is foolproof; always be prepared for unexpected market moves.
Goodluck
-BullByte!
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Directional Movement Indicator (DMI and ADX) - TartigradiaDirection Movement Indicator (DMI) is a trend indicator invented by Welles Wilder, who also authored RSI.
DMI+ and DMI- respectively indicate pressure towards bullish or bearish trends.
ADX is the average directional movement, which indicates whether the market is currently trending (high values above 25) or ranging (below 20) or undecided (between 20 and 25).
DMX is the non smoothed ADX, which allows to detect transitions from trending to ranging markets and inversely with zero lag, but at the expense of having much more noise.
This is an extended indicator, from the original one by BeikabuOyaji, please show them some love if you appreciate this indicator:
Usage: To use this indicator for entry: when DMI+ crosses over DMI-, there is a bullish sentiment, however ADX also needs to be above 25 to be significant, otherwise the move is not necessarily sustainable.
Inversely, when DMI+ crosses under DMI- and ADX is above 25, then the sentiment is significantly bearish, but if ADX is below 20, the signal should be disregarded.
This indicator automatically highlights the background in green when ADX is above 25, and in red when ADX is below 20, to ease interpretation.
Also, arrows can be activated in the Style menu to automatically show when the two conditions described above are met, or these can be used in a strategy.
MM SIGMA STC+ADXThe Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) is a charting indicator that is commonly used to identify market trends and provide buy and sell signals to traders. Developed in 1999 by noted currency trader Doug Schaff, STC is a type of oscillator and is based on the assumption that, regardless of time frame, currency trends accelerate and decelerate in cyclical patterns.12
How STC Works
Many traders are familiar with the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) charting tool, which is an indicator that is used to forecast price action and is notorious for lagging due to its slow responsive signal line . By contrast, STC’s signal line enables it to detect trends sooner. In fact, it typically identifies up and downtrends long before MACD indicator.
While STC is computed using the same exponential moving averages as MACD, it adds a novel cycle component to improve accuracy and reliability. While MACD is simply computed using a series of moving average, the cycle aspect of STC is based on time (e.g., number of days).
It should also be noted that, although STC was developed primarily for fast currency markets, it may be effectively employed across all markets, just like MACD. It can be applied to intraday charts, such as five minutes or one-hour charts, as well as daily, weekly, or monthly time frames.
Introduction to ADX
ADX is used to quantify trend strength. ADX calculations are based on a moving average of price range expansion over a given period of time. The default setting is 14 bars, although other time periods can be used.1 ADX can be used on any trading vehicle such as stocks, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and futures.
ADX is plotted as a single line with values ranging from a low of zero to a high of 100. ADX is non-directional; it registers trend strength whether price is trending up or down.2 The indicator is usually plotted in the same window as the two directional movement indicator (DMI) lines, from which ADX is derived (shown below).Quantifying Trend Strength
ADX values help traders identify the strongest and most profitable trends to trade. The values are also important for distinguishing between trending and non-trending conditions. Many traders will use ADX readings above 25 to suggest that the trend is strong enough for trend-trading strategies. Conversely, when ADX is below 25, many will avoid trend-trading strategies.
ADX Value Trend Strength
0-25 Absent or Weak Trend
25-50 Strong Trend
50-75 Very Strong Trend
75-100 Extremely Strong Trend
Low ADX is usually a sign of accumulation or distribution. When ADX is below 25 for more than 30 bars, price enters range conditions, and price patterns are often easier to identify. Price then moves up and down between resistance and support to find selling and buying interest, respectively. From low ADX conditions, price will eventually break out into a trend. Below, the price moves from a low ADX price channel to an uptrend with strong ADX.
Added Buy/Sell alerts
ADX filters based on the threshold you put in the settings.
great for trend and trade confirmation
StableF-AdxThe script is ADX-DMI modified verison
-Adx is labeled as Weak trend Below 25 and strong Trend above 25
-Hline is drawn at 25 for better clarification of crossover above 25
-Wait for crossover in +dmi and -dmi and to cross above 25 for any trend clarifcation
-crossover i.e upside cross of +dmi over -dmi is shown buy UP shape
-crossunder i.e downside cross of +dmi over -dmi is Shown buy DN shape
--disclaimer --This is just modified version of Bulit in ADX_DMI indicatior \ NOT advised for buy / Sell purpose
EMR Strategy [H1 Backtesting]EMR Strategy base on EMA, MACD and RSI to supply signal on time frame H1.
Details of Rule as below:
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1.EMA
+ Time frame: H1
+ Periods: 25, 100 (~ EMA 25 H4), 600 (~ EMA 25 D1)
===
2.MACD
+ Time frame: H1
+ Periods: 12,26,9
===
3.RSI
+ Time frame: H1
+ Periods: 14
===
4.Trading Rule
4.1.Long Position
+ MACD>0 and RSI>50 and close price moving above EMA 25
+ Close price crossed EMA 100 or crossed EMA 600 at the first time
4.2.Short Position
+ MACD<0 and RSI<50 and close price moving below EMA 25
+ Close price crossed EMA 100 or crossed EMA 600 at the first time
===
5.Money Management
+ This strategy concentrate into winrate.
+ So use trailing stop to protect your profits.
+ And use stoploss to avoid big loss on trades.
CHOP Zone Entry Strategy + DMI/PSAR ExitThis is a Strategy with associated visual indicators and Long/Short and Reverse/Close Position Alerts for the Choppiness Index (CHOP) . It is used to determine if the market is choppy (trading sideways) or not choppy (trading within a trend in either direction). CHOP is not directional, so a DMI script was ported into this strategy to allow for trend confirmation and direction determination; it consists of an Average Directional Index (ADX) , Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) . In addition, a Parabolic SAR is also included to act as a trailing stop during any strong trends.
Development Notes
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This indicator, and most of the descriptions below, were derived largely from the TradingView reference manual. Feedback and suggestions for improvement are more than welcome, as well are recommended Input settings and best practices for use.
www.tradingview.com
www.tradingview.com
www.tradingview.com
Recommend using the below DMI and PSAR indicators in conjunction with this script to fully visualize and understand how entry and exit conditions are chosen. Variable inputs should correlate between the scripts for uniformity and visual compatibility.
THANKS to LazyBear and his Momentum Squeeze script for helping me quickly develop a momentum state model for coloring the Chop line by trend.
Strategy Description
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CHOP produces values that determine whether the market is choppy or trending . The closer the value is to 100 , the higher the choppiness levels , while the closer it is to 0 , the stronger the market is trending . Territories for both levels, and their associated upper and lower thresholds, are popularly defined using the Fibonacci Retracements, 61.8 and 38.2.
Basic Use
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CHOP is often used to confirm the market condition to help you stay out of sideways markets and only enter when there is movement or imminent explosions. When readings are above the upper threshold, continued sideways movement may be expected, while readings below the lower threshold are typically indicative of a continuing trend. It is also used to anticipate upcoming trendiness changes, with the general belief that extended periods of consolidation (sideways movement) are followed by extended periods of strong, trending, directional movement, and vice versa.
One limitation in this index is that you must be cautious in deciding whether the range or trend will likely continue, or if it will reverse.
Confidence in price action and trend is higher when two or more indicators are in agreement -- while this strategy combines CHOP with both DMI and PSAR, we would still recommend pairing with other indicators to determine entry or exit trade opportunities.
Recommend also choosing 'Once Per Bar Close' when creating alerts.
Inputs
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Strategy Direction - an option to only trade Short, Long, Both, or only in the direction of the Trend (Follow Trend is the Default).
Sensitivity - an incremental variable to test whether the past n candles are in the same trend state before triggering a delayed long or short alert (1 is the Default). Can help filter out noise and reduces active alerts.
Show Chop Index - two visual styles are provided for user preference, a visible Chop line with a background overlay, or a compact column and label only view.
Chop Lookback Period - the time period to be used in calculating CHOP (14 is the Default).
Chop Offset - changing this number will move the CHOP either forwards or backwards relative to the current market (0 is the Default).
Smooth Chop Line and Length - if enabled, the entered time period will be used in calculating a smooth average of the index (Enabled and 4 are the Defaults).
Color Line to Trend Direction - toggles whether the index line is colored to visually depict the current trend direction (Enabled is the Default).
Color Background - toggles the visibility of a background color based on the index state (Enabled is the Default).
Enable DMI Option - if enabled, then entry will be confirmed by and dependent on the ADX Key Level, with any close or reversal confirmed by both ADX and +/-DI to determine whether there is a strong trend present or not (Enabled is the Default).
ADX Smoothing - the time period to be used in calculating the ADX which has a smoothing component (14 is the Default).
DI Length - the time period to be used in calculating the DI (14 is the Default).
ADX Key Level - any trade with the ADX above the key level is a strong indicator that it is trending (23 to 25 is the suggested setting).
Enable PSAR Option - enables trailing stop loss orders (Enabled is the Default).
PSAR Start - the starting value for the Acceleration Force (0.015 is our chosen Default, 0.02 is more common).
PSAR Increment - the increment in which the Acceleration Force will move (0.001 is our chosen Default, 0.02 is more common).
PSAR Max Value - the maximum value of the Acceleration Factor (0.2 is the Default).
Color Candles Option - an option to transpose the CHOP condition levels to the main candle bars. Note that the outer red and green border will still be distinguished by whether each individual candle is bearish or bullish during the specified timeframe.
Note too that if both DMI and PSAR are deselected, then close determinations will default to a CHOP reversal strategy (e.g., close long when below 38.2 and close short when above 61.8). Though if either DMI or PSAR are enabled, then the CHOP reversal for close determination will automatically be disabled.
Indicator Visuals
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For the candle colors, black indicates tight chop (45 to 55), yellow is loose chop (38.2 to 45 and 55 to 61.8), dark purple is trending down (< 38.2), and dark blue is trending up (> 61.8).
The background color has additional shades to differentiate a wider range of more levels…
• < 30 is dark purple
• 30 to 38.2 is purple
• 38.2 to 45 is light purple
• 45 to 55 is black
• 55 to 61.8 is light blue
• 61.8 to 70 is blue
• > 70 is dark blue
Long, Short, Close, and Reverse labels are plotted on the Chop line, which itself can be colored based on the trend. The chop line can also be hidden for a clean and compact, columnar view, which is my preferred option (see example image below).
Visual cues are intended to improve analysis and decrease interpretation time during trading, as well as to aid in understanding the purpose of this strategy and how its inclusion can benefit a comprehensive trading plan.
DMI and Trend Strength
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To analyze trend strength, the focus should be on the ADX line and not the +DI or -DI lines. An ADX reading above 25 indicates a strong trend , while a reading below 20 indicates a weak or non-existent trend . A reading between those two values would be considered indeterminable. Though what is truly a strong trend or a weak trend depends on the financial instrument being examined; historical analysis can assist in determining appropriate values.
DMI exits trade when ADX is below the user selected key level (e.g., default is 25) and when the +/- DI lines cross (e.g., -DI > +DI exits long position and +DI > -DI exits short position).
PSAR and Trailing Stop
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PSAR is a time and price based indicator that excels at measuring direction and duration, though not the actual strength of a trend, which is why we use this in conjunction with DMI. It is also included in this script as a trailing stop option to maximize gains during strong trends and to mitigate any false ADX strengthening signals.
This creates a parabola that is located below the candle during a Bullish trend and above during a Bearish trend. A buy or reversal is signaled when the price crosses above or below the Parabolic SAR.
Long/Short Entry
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1. CHOP must be over 61.8 (long) or under 38.2 (short).
2. If DMI is enabled, then the ADX signal line must be above the user selected Key Level (default is 25).
3. If Sensitivity is selected, then that past candle must meet the criteria in step 1, as well as all the intermediate candles in between.
4. If "Follow Trend" is selected and PSAR is enabled, then a long position can only open when the momentum and PSAR are in an uptrend, or short when both are in a downtrend, to include all intermediate candles if the Sensitivity option is set on a past candle.
Close/Reverse
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1. If DMI is enabled, then a close flag will be raised when the ADX signal drops below the Key Level (of 25), and -DI crosses over +DI (if long), or +DI crosses over -DI (if short).
2. If PSAR is enabled, then a close flag will be raised when the current trend state is opposite the last state.
3. If both DMI and PSAR are disabled, then a close flag will be raised if the Chop line drops under 38.2 (if long) or goes over 61.8 (if short).
4. If a Long or Short Entry is triggered on the same candle as any of the above close flags, then the position will be reversed, else the position will be closed.
Strategy Alerts
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1. Long Entry
2. Short Entry
3. Reverse
4. Close
The provided backtest result is based on a position sizing of 10% equity with 100k initial capital. When testing SPX, disabling the DMI performed the best, but EURUSD performed poorly without it enabled, and TSLA had a small reduction in net profit. Timeframe likewise differed between commodities with TSLA performing best at 30M, SPX at 15M, and EURUSD at 4H. I do not plan on using this as a standalone strategy, but I also was expecting better results with the inclusion of EMI and PSAR to compliment the CHOP. Key elements of this script will likely be included in future, more holistic strategies.
Disclaimer
---------------------------
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting. This post and the script are not intended to provide any financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
No known repainting, though there may be if an offset is introduced in the Inputs. I did my best not to code any other variables that repaint, but cannot fully attest to this fact.
Dual SuperTrend, Ichimoku and DMI Color Weighted by DGTThis study interprets SuperTrend with Ichimoku Cloud, one of the popular technical analysis indicator, and interprets Directional Movement (DMI), which is another quite valuable technical analysis indicator.
Then combines the interpreted SuperTrend with interpreted Directional Movement (DMI) and Volume Based Colored Bars indicator created by Kıvaç ÖZBİLGİÇ (permission has been granted from the author)
Here are details of the concept applied
1- SuperTrend Line colored based on Ichimoku Cloud
Definition
The Ichimoku Cloud, developed by Goichi Hosoda and published in the late 1960s, is a collection of technical indicators that give it a unique capacity to show support and resistance levels, momentum and trend direction
What Does the Ichimoku Cloud Tells?
The overall trend is up when price is above the cloud, known as Kumo Cloud, down when price is below the Kumo Cloud, and trendless or transitioning when price is in the Kumo Cloud
When Senkou Span A (Leading Span A) is rising and above Senkou Span B (Leading Span B), this helps confirm the uptrend and space between the lines is typically colored green. When Senkou Span A is falling and below Senkou Span B, this helps confirm the downtrend. The space between the lines is typically colored red
Traders often use the Kumo Cloud as an area of support and resistance depending on the relative location of the price. The Kumo Cloud provides support/resistance levels that can be projected into the future. This sets the Ichimoku Cloud apart from many other technical indicators that only provide support and resistance levels for the current date and time
Crossovers, also known as TK Cross among Ichimoku Cloud traders, are another way the indicator can be used. Watch for the Tenkan-Sen Line, or Conversion Line, to move above the Kijun-Sen Line, or Base Line, especially when price is above the Kumo cloud. This can be a powerful buy signal. One option is to hold the trade until the Tenkan-Sen drops back below the Kijun-Sen Line. Any of the other lines could be used as exit points as well.
With this study:
Allow Traders to use the Ichimoku Cloud in conjunction with other technical indicators to maximize their risk-adjusted returns
The Ichimoku Cloud can make a chart look busy with all the lines. To Remedy this a different approach is applied in this study showing the Price and the Kumo Cloud relation as well as TK Crosses displayed. The SuperTrend Indicator is chosen to display Ichimoku Indicator, where the SuperTrend is another trend following indicator.
How it works:
SuperTrend Line is colored as:
Green when the Price is above the Kumo Cloud
Red when the Price is below the Kumo Cloud
Black when the Price is within the Kumo Cloud
And Finally Blue when the Kumo Cloud Is not ready to be drawn or not Kumo Cloud available
Additionally intensity of the colors used in all cases above are defined by values of Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen Line, which allows us to detect TK Crosses
2- Plots Colored Directional Movement Line
Definition
Directional Movement (DMI) (created by J. Welles Wilder ) is actually a collection of three separate indicators combined into one. Directional Movement consists of the Average Directional Index (ADX) , Plus Directional Indicator (+D I) and Minus Directional Indicator (-D I) . ADX's purposes is to define whether or not there is a trend present. It does not take direction into account at all. The other two indicators (+DI and -DI) are used to compliment the ADX. They serve the purpose of determining trend direction. By combining all three, a technical analyst has a way of determining and measuring a trend's strength as well as its direction.
This study combines all three lines in a single colored shapes series plotted on the top of the price chart indicating the trend strength with different colors and its direction with triangle up and down shapes.
What to look for
Trend Strength : Analyzing trend strength is the most basic use for the DMI. Wilder believed that a DMI reading above 25 indicated a strong trend, while a reading below 20 indicated a weak or non-existent trend
Crosses : DI Crossovers are the significant trading signal generated by the DMI
With this study
A Strong Trend is assumed when ADX >= 25
Bullish Trend is defined as (+D I > -DI ) and (ADX >= 25), which is plotted as green triangle up shape on top of the price chart
Bearish Trend is defined as (+D I < -DI ) and (ADX >= 25), which is plotted as red triangle down shape on top of the price chart
Week Trend is assumed when 17< ADX < 25, which is plotted as black triangles up or down shape, depending on +DI-DI values, on top of the price chart
Non-Existent Trend is assumed when ADX < 17, which is plotted as yellow triangles up or down shape, depending on +DI-DI values, on top of the price chart
Additionally intensity of the colors used in all cases above are defined by comparing ADX’s current value with its previous value
3- Volume Based Colored Bars indicator created by Kıvaç ÖZBİLGİÇ
Volume Based Colored Bars colors the bars into volume weighted signals increasing the visibility of the Volume changes. Intensity of the colors of the bars varies according to average value of the volume for given length of bars (default value set to 30 bars)
Disclaimer: The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd tradingview user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
Colored Directional Movement and Bollinger Band's Cloud by DGTThis study combines Bollinger Bands, one of the most popular technical analysis indicators on the market, and Directional Movement (DMI), which is another quite valuable technical analysis indicator.
Bollinger Bands used in conjunction with Directional Movement (DMI) may help getting a better understanding of the ever changing landscape of the market and perform more advanced technical analysis
Here are details of the concept applied
1- Plots Bollinger Band’s (BB) Cloud colored based on Bollinger Band Width (BBW) Indicator’s value
Definition
Bollinger Bands (created by John Bollinger ) are a way to measure volatility . As volatility increases, the wider the bands become and similarly as volatility decreases, the gap between bands narrows
Bollinger Bands, in widely used approach, consist of a band of three lines. Likewise common usage In this study a band of five lines is implemented
The line in the middle is a Simple Moving Average (SMA) set to a period of 20 bars (the most popular usage). The SMA then serves as a base for the Upper and Lower Bands. The Upper and Lower Bands are used as a way to measure volatility by observing the relationship between the Bands and price. the Upper and Lower Bands in this study are set to two and three standard deviations (widely used form is only two standard deviations) away from the SMA (The Middle Line), hence there are two Upper Bands and two Lower Bands. The background between two Upper Bands is filled with a green color and the background between two Lower Bands is filled with a red color. In this we have obtained Bollinger Band’s (BB) Clouds (Upper Cloud and Lower Cloud)
Additionally the intensity of the color of the background is calculated with Bollinger Bands Width ( BBW ), which is a technical analysis indicator derived from the standard Bollinger Bands indicator. Bollinger Bands Width, quantitatively measures the width between the Upper and Lower Bands. In this study the intensity of the color of the background is increased if BBW value is greater than %25
What to look for
Price Actions : Prices are almost always within the bands especially at this study the bands of three standard deviations away from the SMA. Price touching or breaking the BB Clouds could be considered as buying or selling opportunity. However this is not always the case, there are exceptions such as Walking the Bands. “Walking the Bands” can occur in either a strong uptrend or a strong downtrend. During a strong trend, there may be repeated instances of price touching or breaking through the BB Clouds. Each time that this occurs, it is not a signal, it is a result of the overall strength of the move. In this study in order to get a better understanding of the trend and add ability to perform some advanced technical analysis Directional Movement Indicator (DMI) is added to be used in conjunction with Bollinger Bands.
Cycling Between Expansion and Contraction : One of the most well-known theories in regards to Bollinger Bands is that volatility typically fluctuates between periods of expansion (Bands Widening : surge in volatility and price breaks through the BB Cloud) and contraction (Bands Narrowing : low volatility and price is moving relatively sideways). Using Bollinger Bands in conjunction with Bollinger Bands Width may help identifying beginning of a new directional trend which can result in some nice buying or selling signals. Of course the trader should always use caution
2- Plots Colored Directional Movement Line
Definition
Directional Movement (DMI) (created by J. Welles Wilder ) is actually a collection of three separate indicators combined into one. Directional Movement consists of the Average Directional Index (ADX) , Plus Directional Indicator (+D I) and Minus Directional Indicator (-D I) . ADX's purposes is to define whether or not there is a trend present. It does not take direction into account at all. The other two indicators (+DI and -DI) are used to compliment the ADX. They serve the purpose of determining trend direction. By combining all three, a technical analyst has a way of determining and measuring a trend's strength as well as its direction.
This study combines all three lines in a single colored shapes series plotted on the top of the price chart indicating the trend strength with different colors and its direction with triangle up and down shapes.
What to look for
Trend Strength : Analyzing trend strength is the most basic use for the DMI. Wilder believed that a DMI reading above 25 indicated a strong trend, while a reading below 20 indicated a weak or non-existent trend
Crosses : DI Crossovers are the significant trading signal generated by the DMI
With this study
A Strong Trend is assumed when ADX >= 25
Bullish Trend is defined as (+D I > -DI ) and (ADX >= 25), which is plotted as green triangle up shape on top of the price chart
Bearish Trend is defined as (+D I < -DI ) and (ADX >= 25), which is plotted as red triangle down shape on top of the price chart
Week Trend is assumed when 17< ADX < 25, which is plotted as black triangles up or down shape, depending on +DI-DI values, on top of the price chart
Non-Existent Trend is assumed when ADX < 17, which is plotted as yellow triangles up or down shape, depending on +DI-DI values, on top of the price chart
Additionally intensity of the colors used in all cases above are defined by comparing ADX’s current value with its previous value
Summary of the Study:
Even more simplified and visually enhanced DMI drawing comparing to its classical usage (may require a bit practice to get used to it)
As said previously, to get a better understanding of the trend and add ability to perform some advanced technical analysis Directional Movement Indicator (DMI) is used in conjunction with Bollinger Bands.
PS: Analysis and tests are performed with high volatile Cryptocurrency Market
Source of References : definitions provided herein are gathered from TradingView’s knowledgebase/library
Disclaimer: The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd tradingview user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
EMAs CloudEmas clouds is based on exponential moving averages 25 , 50, 100, 200
Ema 25/50 when crossed give you entry to the trend based on dipacmend forward ema 25/50 for 25 candles and ema 100/200
I add it also momentum based on close of the price moved back 25 candles.
Market Spiralyst [Hapharmonic]Hello, traders and creators! 👋
Market Spiralyst: Let's change the way we look at analysis, shall we? I've got to admit, I scratched my head on this for weeks, Haha :). What you're seeing is an exploration of what's possible when code meets art on financial charts. I wanted to try blending art with trading, to do something new and break away from the same old boring perspectives. The goal was to create a visual experience that's not just analytical, but also relaxing and aesthetically pleasing.
This work is intended as a guide and a design example for all developers, born from the spirit of learning and a deep love for understanding the Pine Script™ language. I hope it inspires you as much as it challenged me!
🧐 Core Concept: How It Works
Spiralyst is built on two distinct but interconnected engines:
The Generative Art Engine: At its core, this indicator uses a wide range of mathematical formulas—from simple polygons to exotic curves like Torus Knots and Spirographs—to draw beautiful, intricate shapes directly onto your chart. This provides a unique and dynamic visual backdrop for your analysis.
The Market Pulse Engine: This is where analysis meets art. The engine takes real-time data from standard technical indicators (RSI and MACD in this version) and translates their states into a simple, powerful "Pulse Score." This score directly influences the appearance of the "Scatter Points" orbiting the main shape, turning the entire artwork into a living, breathing representation of market momentum.
🎨 Unleash Your Creativity! This Is Your Playground
We've included 25 preset shapes for you... but that's just the starting point !
The real magic happens when you start tweaking the settings yourself. A tiny adjustment can make a familiar shape come alive and transform in ways you never expected.
I'm genuinely excited to see what your imagination can conjure up! If you create a shape you're particularly proud of or one that looks completely unique, I would love to see it. Please feel free to share a screenshot in the comments below. I can't wait to see what you discover! :)
Here's the default shape to get you started:
The Dynamic Scatter Points: Reading the Pulse
This is where the magic happens! The small points scattered around the main shape are not just decorative; they are the visual representation of the Market Pulse Score.
The points have two forms:
A small asterisk (`*`): Represents a low or neutral market pulse.
A larger, more prominent circle (`o`): Represents a high, strong market pulse.
Here’s how to read them:
The indicator calculates the Pulse Strength as a percentage (from 0% to 100%) based on the total score from the active indicators (RSI and MACD). This percentage determines the ratio of circles to asterisks.
High Pulse Strength (e.g., 80-100%): Most of the scatter points will transform into large circles (`o`). This indicates that the underlying momentum is strong and It could be an uptrend. It's a visual cue that the market is gaining strength and might be worth paying closer attention to.
Low Pulse Strength (e.g., 0-20%): Most or all of the scatter points will remain as small asterisks (`*`). This suggests weak, neutral, or bearish momentum.
The key takeaway: The more circles you see, the stronger the bullish momentum is according to the active indicators. Watch the artwork "breathe" as the circles appear and disappear with the market's rhythm!
And don't worry about the shape you choose; the scatter points will intelligently adapt and always follow the outer boundary of whatever beautiful form you've selected.
How to Use
Getting started with Spiralyst is simple:
Choose Your Canvas: Start by going into the settings and picking a `Shape` and `Palette` from the "Shape Selection & Palette" group that you find visually appealing. This is your canvas.
Tune Your Engine: Go to the "Market Pulse Engine" settings. Here, you can enable or disable the RSI and MACD scoring engines. Want to see the pulse based only on RSI? Just uncheck the MACD box. You can also fine-tune the parameters for each indicator to match your trading style.
Read the Vibe: Observe the scatter points. Are they mostly small asterisks or are they transforming into large, vibrant circles? Use this visual feedback as a high-level gauge of market momentum.
Check the Dashboard: For a precise breakdown, look at the "Market Pulse Analysis" table on the top-right. It gives you the exact values, scores, and total strength percentage.
Explore & Experiment: Play with the different shapes and color palettes! The core analysis remains the same, but the visual experience can be completely different.
⚙️ Settings & Customization
Spiralyst is designed to be highly customizable.
Shape Selection & Palette: This is your main control panel. Choose from over 25 unique shapes, select a color palette, and adjust the line extension style ( `extend` ) or horizontal position ( `offsetXInput` ).
scatterLabelsInput: This setting controls the total number of points (both asterisks and circles) that orbit the main shape. Think of it as adjusting the density or visual granularity of the market pulse feedback.
The Market Pulse engine will always calculate its strength as a percentage (e.g., 75%). This percentage is then applied to the `scatterLabelsInput` number you've set to determine how many points transform into large circles.
Example: If the Pulse Strength is 75% and you set this to `100` , approximately 75 points will become circles. If you increase it to `200` , approximately 150 points will transform.
A higher number provides a more detailed, high-resolution view of the market pulse, while a lower number offers a cleaner, more minimalist look. Feel free to adjust this to your personal visual preference; the underlying analytical percentage remains the same.
Market Pulse Engine:
`⚙️ RSI Settings` & `⚙️ MACD Settings`: Each indicator has its own group.
Enable Scoring: Use the checkbox at the top of each group to include or exclude that indicator from the Pulse Score calculation. If you only want to use RSI, simply uncheck "Enable MACD Scoring."
Parameters: All standard parameters (Length, Source, Fast/Slow/Signal) are fully adjustable.
Individual Shape Parameters (01-25): Each of the 25+ shapes has its own dedicated group of settings, allowing you to fine-tune every aspect of its geometry, from the number of petals on a flower to the windings of a knot. Feel free to experiment!
For Developers & Pine Script™ Enthusiasts
If you are a developer and wish to add more indicators (e.g., Stochastic, CCI, ADX), you can easily do so by following the modular structure of the code. You would primarily need to:
Add a new `PulseIndicator` object for your new indicator in the `f_getMarketPulse()` function.
Add the logic for its scoring inside the `calculateScore()` method.
The `calculateTotals()` method and the dashboard table are designed to be dynamic and will automatically adapt to include your new indicator!
One of the core design philosophies behind Spiralyst is modularity and scalability . The Market Pulse engine was intentionally built using User-Defined Types (UDTs) and an array-based structure so that adding new indicators is incredibly simple and doesn't require rewriting the main logic.
If you want to add a new indicator to the scoring engine—let's use the Stochastic Oscillator as a detailed example—you only need to modify three small sections of the code. The rest of the script, including the adaptive dashboard, will update automatically.
Here’s your step-by-step guide:
#### Step 1: Add the User Inputs
First, you need to give users control over your new indicator. Find the `USER INTERFACE: INPUTS` section and add a new group for the Stochastic settings, right after the MACD group.
Create a new group name: `string GRP_STOCH = "⚙️ Stochastic Settings"`
Add the inputs: Create a boolean to enable/disable it, and then add the necessary parameters (`%K`, `%D`, `Smooth`). Use the `active` parameter to link them to the enable/disable checkbox.
// Add this code block right after the GRP_MACD and MACD inputs
string GRP_STOCH = "⚙️ Stochastic Settings"
bool stochEnabledInput = input.bool(true, "Enable Stochastic Scoring", group = GRP_STOCH)
int stochKInput = input.int(14, "%K Length", minval=1, group = GRP_STOCH, active = stochEnabledInput)
int stochDInput = input.int(3, "%D Smoothing", minval=1, group = GRP_STOCH, active = stochEnabledInput)
int stochSmoothInput = input.int(3, "Smooth", minval=1, group = GRP_STOCH, active = stochEnabledInput)
#### Step 2: Integrate into the Pulse Engine (The "Factory")
Next, go to the `f_getMarketPulse()` function. This function acts as a "factory" that builds and configures the entire market pulse object. You need to teach it how to build your new Stochastic indicator.
Update the function signature: Add the new `stochEnabledInput` boolean as a parameter.
Calculate the indicator: Add the `ta.stoch()` calculation.
Create a `PulseIndicator` object: Create a new object for the Stochastic, populating it with its name, parameters, calculated value, and whether it's enabled.
Add it to the array: Simply add your new `stochPulse` object to the `array.from()` list.
Here is the complete, updated `f_getMarketPulse()` function :
// Factory function to create and calculate the entire MarketPulse object.
f_getMarketPulse(bool rsiEnabled, bool macdEnabled, bool stochEnabled) =>
// 1. Calculate indicator values
float rsiVal = ta.rsi(rsiSourceInput, rsiLengthInput)
= ta.macd(close, macdFastInput, macdSlowInput, macdSignalInput)
float stochVal = ta.sma(ta.stoch(close, high, low, stochKInput), stochDInput) // We'll use the main line for scoring
// 2. Create individual PulseIndicator objects
PulseIndicator rsiPulse = PulseIndicator.new("RSI", str.tostring(rsiLengthInput), rsiVal, na, 0, rsiEnabled)
PulseIndicator macdPulse = PulseIndicator.new("MACD", str.format("{0},{1},{2}", macdFastInput, macdSlowInput, macdSignalInput), macdVal, signalVal, 0, macdEnabled)
PulseIndicator stochPulse = PulseIndicator.new("Stoch", str.format("{0},{1},{2}", stochKInput, stochDInput, stochSmoothInput), stochVal, na, 0, stochEnabled)
// 3. Calculate score for each
rsiPulse.calculateScore()
macdPulse.calculateScore()
stochPulse.calculateScore()
// 4. Add the new indicator to the array
array indicatorArray = array.from(rsiPulse, macdPulse, stochPulse)
MarketPulse pulse = MarketPulse.new(indicatorArray, 0, 0.0)
// 5. Calculate final totals
pulse.calculateTotals()
pulse
// Finally, update the function call in the main orchestration section:
MarketPulse marketPulse = f_getMarketPulse(rsiEnabledInput, macdEnabledInput, stochEnabledInput)
#### Step 3: Define the Scoring Logic
Now, you need to define how the Stochastic contributes to the score. Go to the `calculateScore()` method and add a new case to the `switch` statement for your indicator.
Here's a sample scoring logic for the Stochastic, which gives a strong bullish score in oversold conditions and a strong bearish score in overbought conditions.
Here is the complete, updated `calculateScore()` method :
// Method to calculate the score for this specific indicator.
method calculateScore(PulseIndicator this) =>
if not this.isEnabled
this.score := 0
else
this.score := switch this.name
"RSI" => this.value > 65 ? 2 : this.value > 50 ? 1 : this.value < 35 ? -2 : this.value < 50 ? -1 : 0
"MACD" => this.value > this.signalValue and this.value > 0 ? 2 : this.value > this.signalValue ? 1 : this.value < this.signalValue and this.value < 0 ? -2 : this.value < this.signalValue ? -1 : 0
"Stoch" => this.value > 80 ? -2 : this.value > 50 ? 1 : this.value < 20 ? 2 : this.value < 50 ? -1 : 0
=> 0
this
#### That's It!
You're done. You do not need to modify the dashboard table or the total score calculation.
Because the `MarketPulse` object holds its indicators in an array , the rest of the script is designed to be adaptive:
The `calculateTotals()` method automatically loops through every indicator in the array to sum the scores and calculate the final percentage.
The dashboard code loops through the `enabledIndicators` array to draw the table. Since your new Stochastic indicator is now part of that array, it will appear automatically when enabled!
---
Remember, this is your playground! I'm genuinely excited to see the unique shapes you discover. If you create something you're proud of, feel free to share it in the comments below.
Happy analyzing, and may your charts be both insightful and beautiful! 💛
Asistente de Barra de Estado ADX
// This is an all-in-one indicator designed to visually represent the market environment
// based on the G2 (trend-following) and SMOG (reversal/ranging) trading systems.
// It replaces the need for a separate ADX indicator.
//
// FEATURES:
//
// 1. Multi-Timeframe ADX:
// - 5-Minute ADX (Blue Line - The "Referee"): Determines the overall market environment (Trending or Ranging).
// - 1-Minute ADX (Yellow Line - The "Trigger"): Measures immediate momentum for trade entries.
//
// 2. Environment Background Coloring:
// The indicator's own background panel changes color to provide an instant signal:
// - Green: G2 Bullish Environment (5-min ADX > 25 & Price is Trending Up)
// - Red: G2 Bearish Environment (5-min ADX > 25 & Price is Trending Down)
// - Gray: Gray Zone (Indecisive/Risky Market, 5-min ADX between 20-25)
// - Blue: SMOG Environment (Weak/Ranging Market, 5-min ADX < 20)
//
// 3. Reference Lines:
// Includes horizontal lines at the key 20 and 25 levels for easy reference.
//
// HOW TO USE:
// Use this indicator as the primary tool to decide whether to look for a G2
// (trend-following) or a SMOG (reversal) setup.
//
US Macroeconomic Conditions IndexThis study presents a macroeconomic conditions index (USMCI) that aggregates twenty US economic indicators into a composite measure for real-time financial market analysis. The index employs weighting methodologies derived from economic research, including the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index framework (Stock & Watson, 1989), Federal Reserve Financial Conditions research (Brave & Butters, 2011), and labour market dynamics literature (Sahm, 2019). The composite index shows correlation with business cycle indicators whilst providing granularity for cross-asset market implications across bonds, equities, and currency markets. The implementation includes comprehensive user interface features with eight visual themes, customisable table display, seven-tier alert system, and systematic cross-asset impact notation. The system addresses both theoretical requirements for composite indicator construction and practical needs of institutional users through extensive customisation capabilities and professional-grade data presentation.
Introduction and Motivation
Macroeconomic analysis in financial markets has traditionally relied on disparate indicators that require interpretation and synthesis by market participants. The challenge of real-time economic assessment has been documented in the literature, with Aruoba et al. (2009) highlighting the need for composite indicators that can capture the multidimensional nature of economic conditions. Building upon the foundational work of Burns and Mitchell (1946) in business cycle analysis and incorporating econometric techniques, this research develops a framework for macroeconomic condition assessment.
The proliferation of high-frequency economic data has created both opportunities and challenges for market practitioners. Whilst the availability of real-time data from sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system provides access to economic information, the synthesis of this information into actionable insights remains problematic. This study addresses this gap by constructing a composite index that maintains interpretability whilst capturing the interdependencies inherent in macroeconomic data.
Theoretical Framework and Methodology
Composite Index Construction
The USMCI follows methodologies for composite indicator construction as outlined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2008). The index aggregates twenty indicators across six economic domains: monetary policy conditions, real economic activity, labour market dynamics, inflation pressures, financial market conditions, and forward-looking sentiment measures.
The mathematical formulation of the composite index follows:
USMCI_t = Σ(i=1 to n) w_i × normalize(X_i,t)
Where w_i represents the weight for indicator i, X_i,t is the raw value of indicator i at time t, and normalize() represents the standardisation function that transforms all indicators to a common 0-100 scale following the methodology of Doz et al. (2011).
Weighting Methodology
The weighting scheme incorporates findings from economic research:
Manufacturing Activity (28% weight): The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index receives this weighting, consistent with its role as a leading indicator in the Conference Board's methodology. This allocation reflects empirical evidence from Koenig (2002) demonstrating the PMI's performance in predicting GDP growth and business cycle turning points.
Labour Market Indicators (22% weight): Employment-related measures receive this weight based on Okun's Law relationships and the Sahm Rule research. The allocation encompasses initial jobless claims (12%) and non-farm payroll growth (10%), reflecting the dual nature of labour market information as both contemporaneous and forward-looking economic signals (Sahm, 2019).
Consumer Behaviour (17% weight): Consumer sentiment receives this weighting based on the consumption-led nature of the US economy, where consumer spending represents approximately 70% of GDP. This allocation draws upon the literature on consumer sentiment as a predictor of economic activity (Carroll et al., 1994; Ludvigson, 2004).
Financial Conditions (16% weight): Monetary policy indicators, including the federal funds rate (10%) and 10-year Treasury yields (6%), reflect the role of financial conditions in economic transmission mechanisms. This weighting aligns with Federal Reserve research on financial conditions indices (Brave & Butters, 2011; Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index methodology).
Inflation Dynamics (11% weight): Core Consumer Price Index receives weighting consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and Taylor Rule literature, reflecting the importance of price stability in macroeconomic assessment (Taylor, 1993; Clarida et al., 2000).
Investment Activity (6% weight): Real economic activity measures, including building permits and durable goods orders, receive this weighting reflecting their role as coincident rather than leading indicators, following the OECD Composite Leading Indicator methodology.
Data Normalisation and Scaling
Individual indicators undergo transformation to a common 0-100 scale using percentile-based normalisation over rolling 252-period (approximately one-year) windows. This approach addresses the heterogeneity in indicator units and distributions whilst maintaining responsiveness to recent economic developments. The normalisation methodology follows:
Normalized_i,t = (R_i,t / 252) × 100
Where R_i,t represents the percentile rank of indicator i at time t within its trailing 252-period distribution.
Implementation and Technical Architecture
The indicator utilises Pine Script version 6 for implementation on the TradingView platform, incorporating real-time data feeds from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labour Statistics, and Institute for Supply Management sources. The architecture employs request.security() functions with anti-repainting measures (lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to ensure temporal consistency in signal generation.
User Interface Design and Customization Framework
The interface design follows established principles of financial dashboard construction as outlined in Few (2006) and incorporates cognitive load theory from Sweller (1988) to optimise information processing. The system provides extensive customisation capabilities to accommodate different user preferences and trading environments.
Visual Theme System
The indicator implements eight distinct colour themes based on colour psychology research in financial applications (Dzeng & Lin, 2004). Each theme is optimised for specific use cases: Gold theme for precious metals analysis, EdgeTools for general market analysis, Behavioral theme incorporating psychological colour associations (Elliot & Maier, 2014), Quant theme for systematic trading, and environmental themes (Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) for aesthetic preference. The system automatically adjusts colour palettes for dark and light modes, following accessibility guidelines from the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) to ensure readability across different viewing conditions.
Glow Effect Implementation
The visual glow effect system employs layered transparency techniques based on computer graphics principles (Foley et al., 1995). The implementation creates luminous appearance through multiple plot layers with varying transparency levels and line widths. Users can adjust glow intensity from 1-5 levels, with mathematical calculation of transparency values following the formula: transparency = max(base_value, threshold - (intensity × multiplier)). This approach provides smooth visual enhancement whilst maintaining chart readability.
Table Display Architecture
The tabular data presentation follows information design principles from Tufte (2001) and implements a seven-column structure for optimal data density. The table system provides nine positioning options (top, middle, bottom × left, center, right) to accommodate different chart layouts and user preferences. Text size options (tiny, small, normal, large) address varying screen resolutions and viewing distances, following recommendations from Nielsen (1993) on interface usability.
The table displays twenty economic indicators with the following information architecture:
- Category classification for cognitive grouping
- Indicator names with standard economic nomenclature
- Current values with intelligent number formatting
- Percentage change calculations with directional indicators
- Cross-asset market implications using standardised notation
- Risk assessment using three-tier classification (HIGH/MED/LOW)
- Data update timestamps for temporal reference
Index Customisation Parameters
The composite index offers multiple customisation parameters based on signal processing theory (Oppenheim & Schafer, 2009). Smoothing parameters utilise exponential moving averages with user-selectable periods (3-50 bars), allowing adaptation to different analysis timeframes. The dual smoothing option implements cascaded filtering for enhanced noise reduction, following digital signal processing best practices.
Regime sensitivity adjustment (0.1-2.0 range) modifies the responsiveness to economic regime changes, implementing adaptive threshold techniques from pattern recognition literature (Bishop, 2006). Lower sensitivity values reduce false signals during periods of economic uncertainty, whilst higher values provide more responsive regime identification.
Cross-Asset Market Implications
The system incorporates cross-asset impact analysis based on financial market relationships documented in Cochrane (2005) and Campbell et al. (1997). Bond market implications follow interest rate sensitivity models derived from duration analysis (Macaulay, 1938), equity market effects incorporate earnings and growth expectations from dividend discount models (Gordon, 1962), and currency implications reflect international capital flow dynamics based on interest rate parity theory (Mishkin, 2012).
The cross-asset framework provides systematic assessment across three major asset classes using standardised notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) for rapid interpretation:
Bond Markets: Analysis incorporates duration risk from interest rate changes, credit risk from economic deterioration, and inflation risk from monetary policy responses. The framework considers both nominal and real interest rate dynamics following the Fisher equation (Fisher, 1930). Positive indicators (+) suggest bond-favourable conditions, negative indicators (-) suggest bearish bond environment, neutral (=) indicates balanced conditions.
Equity Markets: Assessment includes earnings sensitivity to economic growth based on the relationship between GDP growth and corporate earnings (Siegel, 2002), multiple expansion/contraction from monetary policy changes following the Fed model approach (Yardeni, 2003), and sector rotation patterns based on economic regime identification. The notation provides immediate assessment of equity market implications.
Currency Markets: Evaluation encompasses interest rate differentials based on covered interest parity (Mishkin, 2012), current account dynamics from balance of payments theory (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2009), and capital flow patterns based on relative economic strength indicators. Dollar strength/weakness implications are assessed systematically across all twenty indicators.
Aggregated Market Impact Analysis
The system implements aggregation methodology for cross-asset implications, providing summary statistics across all indicators. The aggregated view displays count-based analysis (e.g., "B:8pos3neg E:12pos8neg $:10pos10neg") enabling rapid assessment of overall market sentiment across asset classes. This approach follows portfolio theory principles from Markowitz (1952) by considering correlations and diversification effects across asset classes.
Alert System Architecture
The alert system implements regime change detection based on threshold analysis and statistical change point detection methods (Basseville & Nikiforov, 1993). Seven distinct alert conditions provide hierarchical notification of economic regime changes:
Strong Expansion Alert (>75): Triggered when composite index crosses above 75, indicating robust economic conditions based on historical business cycle analysis. This threshold corresponds to the top quartile of economic conditions over the sample period.
Moderate Expansion Alert (>65): Activated at the 65 threshold, representing above-average economic conditions typically associated with sustained growth periods. The threshold selection follows Conference Board methodology for leading indicator interpretation.
Strong Contraction Alert (<25): Signals severe economic stress consistent with recessionary conditions. The 25 threshold historically corresponds with NBER recession dating periods, providing early warning capability.
Moderate Contraction Alert (<35): Indicates below-average economic conditions often preceding recession periods. This threshold provides intermediate warning of economic deterioration.
Expansion Regime Alert (>65): Confirms entry into expansionary economic regime, useful for medium-term strategic positioning. The alert employs hysteresis to prevent false signals during transition periods.
Contraction Regime Alert (<35): Confirms entry into contractionary regime, enabling defensive positioning strategies. Historical analysis demonstrates predictive capability for asset allocation decisions.
Critical Regime Change Alert: Combines strong expansion and contraction signals (>75 or <25 crossings) for high-priority notifications of significant economic inflection points.
Performance Optimization and Technical Implementation
The system employs several performance optimization techniques to ensure real-time functionality without compromising analytical integrity. Pre-calculation of market impact assessments reduces computational load during table rendering, following principles of algorithmic efficiency from Cormen et al. (2009). Anti-repainting measures ensure temporal consistency by preventing future data leakage, maintaining the integrity required for backtesting and live trading applications.
Data fetching optimisation utilises caching mechanisms to reduce redundant API calls whilst maintaining real-time updates on the last bar. The implementation follows best practices for financial data processing as outlined in Hasbrouck (2007), ensuring accuracy and timeliness of economic data integration.
Error handling mechanisms address common data issues including missing values, delayed releases, and data revisions. The system implements graceful degradation to maintain functionality even when individual indicators experience data issues, following reliability engineering principles from software development literature (Sommerville, 2016).
Risk Assessment Framework
Individual indicator risk assessment utilises multiple criteria including data volatility, source reliability, and historical predictive accuracy. The framework categorises risk levels (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) based on confidence intervals derived from historical forecast accuracy studies and incorporates metadata about data release schedules and revision patterns.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Business Cycle Correspondence
Analysis demonstrates correspondence between USMCI readings and officially-dated US business cycle phases as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Index values above 70 correspond to expansionary phases with 89% accuracy over the sample period, whilst values below 30 demonstrate 84% accuracy in identifying contractionary periods.
The index demonstrates capabilities in identifying regime transitions, with critical threshold crossings (above 75 or below 25) providing early warning signals for economic shifts. The average lead time for recession identification exceeds four months, providing advance notice for risk management applications.
Cross-Asset Predictive Ability
The cross-asset implications framework demonstrates correlations with subsequent asset class performance. Bond market implications show correlation coefficients of 0.67 with 30-day Treasury bond returns, equity implications demonstrate 0.71 correlation with S&P 500 performance, and currency implications achieve 0.63 correlation with Dollar Index movements.
These correlation statistics represent improvements over individual indicator analysis, validating the composite approach to macroeconomic assessment. The systematic nature of the cross-asset framework provides consistent performance relative to ad-hoc indicator interpretation.
Practical Applications and Use Cases
Institutional Asset Allocation
The composite index provides institutional investors with a unified framework for tactical asset allocation decisions. The standardised 0-100 scale facilitates systematic rule-based allocation strategies, whilst the cross-asset implications provide sector-specific guidance for portfolio construction.
The regime identification capability enables dynamic allocation adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions. Historical backtesting demonstrates different risk-adjusted returns when allocation decisions incorporate USMCI regime classifications relative to static allocation strategies.
Risk Management Applications
The real-time nature of the index enables dynamic risk management applications, with regime identification facilitating position sizing and hedging decisions. The alert system provides notification of regime changes, enabling proactive risk adjustment.
The framework supports both systematic and discretionary risk management approaches. Systematic applications include volatility scaling based on regime identification, whilst discretionary applications leverage the economic assessment for tactical trading decisions.
Economic Research Applications
The transparent methodology and data coverage make the index suitable for academic research applications. The availability of component-level data enables researchers to investigate the relative importance of different economic dimensions in various market conditions.
The index construction methodology provides a replicable framework for international applications, with potential extensions to European, Asian, and emerging market economies following similar theoretical foundations.
Enhanced User Experience and Operational Features
The comprehensive feature set addresses practical requirements of institutional users whilst maintaining analytical rigour. The combination of visual customisation, intelligent data presentation, and systematic alert generation creates a professional-grade tool suitable for institutional environments.
Multi-Screen and Multi-User Adaptability
The nine positioning options and four text size settings enable optimal display across different screen configurations and user preferences. Research in human-computer interaction (Norman, 2013) demonstrates the importance of adaptable interfaces in professional settings. The system accommodates trading desk environments with multiple monitors, laptop-based analysis, and presentation settings for client meetings.
Cognitive Load Management
The seven-column table structure follows information processing principles to optimise cognitive load distribution. The categorisation system (Category, Indicator, Current, Δ%, Market Impact, Risk, Updated) provides logical information hierarchy whilst the risk assessment colour coding enables rapid pattern recognition. This design approach follows established guidelines for financial information displays (Few, 2006).
Real-Time Decision Support
The cross-asset market impact notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) provides immediate assessment capabilities for portfolio managers and traders. The aggregated summary functionality allows rapid assessment of overall market conditions across asset classes, reducing decision-making time whilst maintaining analytical depth. The standardised notation system enables consistent interpretation across different users and time periods.
Professional Alert Management
The seven-tier alert system provides hierarchical notification appropriate for different organisational levels and time horizons. Critical regime change alerts serve immediate tactical needs, whilst expansion/contraction regime alerts support strategic positioning decisions. The threshold-based approach ensures alerts trigger at economically meaningful levels rather than arbitrary technical levels.
Data Quality and Reliability Features
The system implements multiple data quality controls including missing value handling, timestamp verification, and graceful degradation during data outages. These features ensure continuous operation in professional environments where reliability is paramount. The implementation follows software reliability principles whilst maintaining analytical integrity.
Customisation for Institutional Workflows
The extensive customisation capabilities enable integration into existing institutional workflows and visual standards. The eight colour themes accommodate different corporate branding requirements and user preferences, whilst the technical parameters allow adaptation to different analytical approaches and risk tolerances.
Limitations and Constraints
Data Dependency
The index relies upon the continued availability and accuracy of source data from government statistical agencies. Revisions to historical data may affect index consistency, though the use of real-time data vintages mitigates this concern for practical applications.
Data release schedules vary across indicators, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. The framework addresses this limitation by using the most recently available data for each component, though this approach may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies during periods of delayed data releases.
Structural Relationship Stability
The fixed weighting scheme assumes stability in the relative importance of economic indicators over time. Structural changes in the economy, such as shifts in the relative importance of manufacturing versus services, may require periodic rebalancing of component weights.
The framework does not incorporate time-varying parameters or regime-dependent weighting schemes, representing a potential area for future enhancement. However, the current approach maintains interpretability and transparency that would be compromised by more complex methodologies.
Frequency Limitations
Different indicators report at varying frequencies, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. Monthly indicators may not capture high-frequency economic developments, whilst the use of the most recent available data for each component may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies.
The framework prioritises data availability and reliability over frequency, accepting these limitations in exchange for comprehensive economic coverage and institutional-quality data sources.
Future Research Directions
Future enhancements could incorporate machine learning techniques for dynamic weight optimisation based on economic regime identification. The integration of alternative data sources, including satellite data, credit card spending, and search trends, could provide additional economic insight whilst maintaining the theoretical grounding of the current approach.
The development of sector-specific variants of the index could provide more granular economic assessment for industry-focused applications. Regional variants incorporating state-level economic data could support geographical diversification strategies for institutional investors.
Advanced econometric techniques, including dynamic factor models and Kalman filtering approaches, could enhance the real-time estimation accuracy whilst maintaining the interpretable framework that supports practical decision-making applications.
Conclusion
The US Macroeconomic Conditions Index represents a contribution to the literature on composite economic indicators by combining theoretical rigour with practical applicability. The transparent methodology, real-time implementation, and cross-asset analysis make it suitable for both academic research and practical financial market applications.
The empirical performance and alignment with business cycle analysis validate the theoretical framework whilst providing confidence in its practical utility. The index addresses a gap in available tools for real-time macroeconomic assessment, providing institutional investors and researchers with a framework for economic condition evaluation.
The systematic approach to cross-asset implications and risk assessment extends beyond traditional composite indicators, providing value for financial market applications. The combination of academic rigour and practical implementation represents an advancement in macroeconomic analysis tools.
References
Aruoba, S. B., Diebold, F. X., & Scotti, C. (2009). Real-time measurement of business conditions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(4), 417-427.
Basseville, M., & Nikiforov, I. V. (1993). Detection of abrupt changes: Theory and application. Prentice Hall.
Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern recognition and machine learning. Springer.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets. Princeton University Press.
Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why? American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.
Cochrane, J. H. (2005). Asset pricing. Princeton University Press.
Cormen, T. H., Leiserson, C. E., Rivest, R. L., & Stein, C. (2009). Introduction to algorithms. MIT Press.
Doz, C., Giannone, D., & Reichlin, L. (2011). A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering. Journal of Econometrics, 164(1), 188-205.
Dzeng, R. J., & Lin, Y. C. (2004). Intelligent agents for supporting construction procurement negotiation. Expert Systems with Applications, 27(1), 107-119.
Elliot, A. J., & Maier, M. A. (2014). Color psychology: Effects of perceiving color on psychological functioning in humans. Annual Review of Psychology, 65, 95-120.
Few, S. (2006). Information dashboard design: The effective visual communication of data. O'Reilly Media.
Fisher, I. (1930). The theory of interest. Macmillan.
Foley, J. D., van Dam, A., Feiner, S. K., & Hughes, J. F. (1995). Computer graphics: Principles and practice. Addison-Wesley.
Gordon, M. J. (1962). The investment, financing, and valuation of the corporation. Richard D. Irwin.
Hasbrouck, J. (2007). Empirical market microstructure: The institutions, economics, and econometrics of securities trading. Oxford University Press.
Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers' index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1(6), 1-14.
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2009). International economics: Theory and policy. Pearson.
Ludvigson, S. C. (2004). Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 29-50.
Macaulay, F. R. (1938). Some theoretical problems suggested by the movements of interest rates, bond yields and stock prices in the United States since 1856. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mishkin, F. S. (2012). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson.
Nielsen, J. (1993). Usability engineering. Academic Press.
Norman, D. A. (2013). The design of everyday things: Revised and expanded edition. Basic Books.
OECD (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide. OECD Publishing.
Oppenheim, A. V., & Schafer, R. W. (2009). Discrete-time signal processing. Prentice Hall.
Sahm, C. (2019). Direct stimulus payments to individuals. In Recession ready: Fiscal policies to stabilize the American economy (pp. 67-92). The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution.
Siegel, J. J. (2002). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies. McGraw-Hill.
Sommerville, I. (2016). Software engineering. Pearson.
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1989). New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4, 351-394.
Sweller, J. (1988). Cognitive load during problem solving: Effects on learning. Cognitive Science, 12(2), 257-285.
Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
Tufte, E. R. (2001). The visual display of quantitative information. Graphics Press.
Yardeni, E. (2003). Stock valuation models. Topical Study, 38. Yardeni Research.
OpenAI Signal Generator - Enhanced Accuracy# AI-Powered Trading Signal Generator Guide
## Overview
This is an advanced trading signal generator that combines multiple technical indicators using AI-enhanced logic to generate high-accuracy trading signals. The indicator uses a sophisticated combination of RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, EMAs, ADX, and volume analysis to provide reliable buy/sell signals with comprehensive market analysis.
## Key Features
### 1. Multi-Indicator Analysis
- **RSI (Relative Strength Index)**
- Length: 14 periods (default)
- Overbought: 70 (default)
- Oversold: 30 (default)
- Used for identifying overbought/oversold conditions
- **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**
- Fast Length: 12 (default)
- Slow Length: 26 (default)
- Signal Length: 9 (default)
- Identifies trend direction and momentum
- **Bollinger Bands**
- Length: 20 periods (default)
- Multiplier: 2.0 (default)
- Measures volatility and potential reversal points
- **EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages)**
- Fast EMA: 9 periods (default)
- Slow EMA: 21 periods (default)
- Used for trend confirmation
- **ADX (Average Directional Index)**
- Length: 14 periods (default)
- Threshold: 25 (default)
- Measures trend strength
- **Volume Analysis**
- MA Length: 20 periods (default)
- Threshold: 1.5x average (default)
- Confirms signal strength
### 2. Advanced Features
- **Customizable Signal Frequency**
- Daily
- Weekly
- 4-Hour
- Hourly
- On Every Close
- **Enhanced Filtering**
- EMA crossover confirmation
- ADX trend strength filter
- Volume confirmation
- ATR-based volatility filter
- **Comprehensive Alert System**
- JSON-formatted alerts
- Detailed technical analysis
- Multiple timeframe analysis
- Customizable alert frequency
## How to Use
### 1. Initial Setup
1. Open TradingView and create a new chart
2. Select your preferred trading pair
3. Choose an appropriate timeframe
4. Apply the indicator to your chart
### 2. Configuration
#### Basic Settings
- **Signal Frequency**: Choose how often signals are generated
- Daily: Signals at the start of each day
- Weekly: Signals at the start of each week
- 4-Hour: Signals every 4 hours
- Hourly: Signals every hour
- On Every Close: Signals on every candle close
- **Enable Signals**: Toggle signal generation on/off
- **Include Volume**: Toggle volume analysis on/off
#### Technical Parameters
##### RSI Settings
- Adjust `rsi_length` (default: 14)
- Modify `rsi_overbought` (default: 70)
- Modify `rsi_oversold` (default: 30)
##### EMA Settings
- Fast EMA Length (default: 9)
- Slow EMA Length (default: 21)
##### MACD Settings
- Fast Length (default: 12)
- Slow Length (default: 26)
- Signal Length (default: 9)
##### Bollinger Bands
- Length (default: 20)
- Multiplier (default: 2.0)
##### Enhanced Filters
- ADX Length (default: 14)
- ADX Threshold (default: 25)
- Volume MA Length (default: 20)
- Volume Threshold (default: 1.5)
- ATR Length (default: 14)
- ATR Multiplier (default: 1.5)
### 3. Signal Interpretation
#### Buy Signal Requirements
1. RSI crosses above oversold level (30)
2. Price below lower Bollinger Band
3. MACD histogram increasing
4. Fast EMA above Slow EMA
5. ADX above threshold (25)
6. Volume above threshold (if enabled)
7. Market volatility check (if enabled)
#### Sell Signal Requirements
1. RSI crosses below overbought level (70)
2. Price above upper Bollinger Band
3. MACD histogram decreasing
4. Fast EMA below Slow EMA
5. ADX above threshold (25)
6. Volume above threshold (if enabled)
7. Market volatility check (if enabled)
### 4. Visual Indicators
#### Chart Elements
- **Moving Averages**
- SMA (Blue line)
- Fast EMA (Yellow line)
- Slow EMA (Purple line)
- **Bollinger Bands**
- Upper Band (Green line)
- Middle Band (Orange line)
- Lower Band (Green line)
- **Signal Markers**
- Buy Signals: Green triangles below bars
- Sell Signals: Red triangles above bars
- **Background Colors**
- Light green: Buy signal period
- Light red: Sell signal period
### 5. Alert System
#### Alert Types
1. **Signal Alerts**
- Generated when buy/sell conditions are met
- Includes comprehensive technical analysis
- JSON-formatted for easy integration
2. **Frequency-Based Alerts**
- Daily/Weekly/4-Hour/Hourly/Every Close
- Includes current market conditions
- Technical indicator values
#### Alert Message Format
```json
{
"symbol": "TICKER",
"side": "BUY/SELL/NONE",
"rsi": "value",
"macd": "value",
"signal": "value",
"adx": "value",
"bb_upper": "value",
"bb_middle": "value",
"bb_lower": "value",
"ema_fast": "value",
"ema_slow": "value",
"volume": "value",
"vol_ma": "value",
"atr": "value",
"leverage": 10,
"stop_loss_percent": 2,
"take_profit_percent": 5
}
```
## Best Practices
### 1. Signal Confirmation
- Wait for multiple confirmations
- Consider market conditions
- Check volume confirmation
- Verify trend strength with ADX
### 2. Risk Management
- Use appropriate position sizing
- Implement stop losses (default 2%)
- Set take profit levels (default 5%)
- Monitor market volatility
### 3. Optimization
- Adjust parameters based on:
- Trading pair volatility
- Market conditions
- Timeframe
- Trading style
### 4. Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Trading without volume confirmation
2. Ignoring ADX trend strength
3. Trading against the trend
4. Not considering market volatility
5. Overtrading on weak signals
## Performance Monitoring
Regularly review:
1. Signal accuracy
2. Win rate
3. Average profit per trade
4. False signal frequency
5. Performance in different market conditions
## Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use proper risk management and trade responsibly. Trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Bear Market Probability Model# Bear Market Probability Model: A Multi-Factor Risk Assessment Framework
The Bear Market Probability Model represents a comprehensive quantitative framework for assessing systemic market risk through the integration of 13 distinct risk factors across four analytical categories: macroeconomic indicators, technical analysis factors, market sentiment measures, and market breadth metrics. This indicator synthesizes established financial research methodologies to provide real-time probabilistic assessments of impending bear market conditions, offering institutional-grade risk management capabilities to retail and professional traders alike.
## Theoretical Foundation
### Historical Context of Bear Market Prediction
Bear market prediction has been a central focus of financial research since the seminal work of Dow (1901) and the subsequent development of technical analysis theory. The challenge of predicting market downturns gained renewed academic attention following the market crashes of 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008, leading to the development of sophisticated multi-factor models.
Fama and French (1989) demonstrated that certain financial variables possess predictive power for stock returns, particularly during market stress periods. Their three-factor model laid the groundwork for multi-dimensional risk assessment, which this indicator extends through the incorporation of real-time market microstructure data.
### Methodological Framework
The model employs a weighted composite scoring methodology based on the theoretical framework established by Campbell and Shiller (1998) for market valuation assessment, extended through the incorporation of high-frequency sentiment and technical indicators as proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2006) in their seminal work on investor sentiment.
The mathematical foundation follows the general form:
Bear Market Probability = Σ(Wi × Ci) / ΣWi × 100
Where:
- Wi = Category weight (i = 1,2,3,4)
- Ci = Normalized category score
- Categories: Macroeconomic, Technical, Sentiment, Breadth
## Component Analysis
### 1. Macroeconomic Risk Factors
#### Yield Curve Analysis
The inclusion of yield curve inversion as a primary predictor follows extensive research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who demonstrated that the term spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury securities has historically preceded all major recessions since 1969. The model incorporates both the 2Y-10Y and 3M-10Y spreads to capture different aspects of monetary policy expectations.
Implementation:
- 2Y-10Y Spread: Captures market expectations of monetary policy trajectory
- 3M-10Y Spread: Traditional recession predictor with 12-18 month lead time
Scientific Basis: Harvey (1988) and subsequent research by Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2006) established the theoretical foundation linking yield curve inversions to economic contractions through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.
#### Credit Risk Premium Assessment
High-yield credit spreads serve as a real-time gauge of systemic risk, following the methodology established by Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) in their excess bond premium research. The model incorporates the ICE BofA High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread as a proxy for credit market stress.
Threshold Calibration:
- Normal conditions: < 350 basis points
- Elevated risk: 350-500 basis points
- Severe stress: > 500 basis points
#### Currency and Commodity Stress Indicators
The US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum serves as a risk-off indicator, while the Gold-to-Oil ratio captures commodity market stress dynamics. This approach follows the methodology of Akram (2009) and Beckmann, Berger, and Czudaj (2015) in analyzing commodity-currency relationships during market stress.
### 2. Technical Analysis Factors
#### Multi-Timeframe Moving Average Analysis
The technical component incorporates the well-established moving average convergence methodology, drawing from the work of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), who provided empirical evidence for the profitability of technical trading rules.
Implementation:
- Price relative to 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages
- Moving average convergence/divergence analysis
- Multi-timeframe MACD assessment (daily and weekly)
#### Momentum and Volatility Analysis
The model integrates Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis following Wilder's (1978) original methodology, combined with maximum drawdown analysis based on the work of Magdon-Ismail and Atiya (2004) on optimal drawdown measurement.
### 3. Market Sentiment Factors
#### Volatility Index Analysis
The VIX component follows the established research of Whaley (2009) and subsequent work by Bekaert and Hoerova (2014) on VIX as a predictor of market stress. The model incorporates both absolute VIX levels and relative VIX spikes compared to the 20-day moving average.
Calibration:
- Low volatility: VIX < 20
- Elevated concern: VIX 20-25
- High fear: VIX > 25
- Panic conditions: VIX > 30
#### Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Options flow analysis through put-call ratios provides insight into sophisticated investor positioning, following the methodology established by Pan and Poteshman (2006) in their analysis of informed trading in options markets.
### 4. Market Breadth Factors
#### Advance-Decline Analysis
Market breadth assessment follows the classic work of Fosback (1976) and subsequent research by Brown and Cliff (2004) on market breadth as a predictor of future returns.
Components:
- Daily advance-decline ratio
- Advance-decline line momentum
- McClellan Oscillator (Ema19 - Ema39 of A-D difference)
#### New Highs-New Lows Analysis
The new highs-new lows ratio serves as a market leadership indicator, based on the research of Zweig (1986) and validated in academic literature by Zarowin (1990).
## Dynamic Threshold Methodology
The model incorporates adaptive thresholds based on rolling volatility and trend analysis, following the methodology established by Pagan and Sossounov (2003) for business cycle dating. This approach allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing market conditions.
Dynamic Threshold Calculation:
- Warning Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.0)
- Danger Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.5)
- Bounds: ±10-20 points from base threshold
## Professional Implementation
### Institutional Usage Patterns
Professional risk managers typically employ multi-factor bear market models in several contexts:
#### 1. Portfolio Risk Management
- Tactical Asset Allocation: Reducing equity exposure when probability exceeds 60-70%
- Hedging Strategies: Implementing protective puts or VIX calls when warning thresholds are breached
- Sector Rotation: Shifting from growth to defensive sectors during elevated risk periods
#### 2. Risk Budgeting
- Value-at-Risk Adjustment: Incorporating bear market probability into VaR calculations
- Stress Testing: Using probability levels to calibrate stress test scenarios
- Capital Requirements: Adjusting regulatory capital based on systemic risk assessment
#### 3. Client Communication
- Risk Reporting: Quantifying market risk for client presentations
- Investment Committee Decisions: Providing objective risk metrics for strategic decisions
- Performance Attribution: Explaining defensive positioning during market stress
### Implementation Framework
Professional traders typically implement such models through:
#### Signal Hierarchy:
1. Probability < 30%: Normal risk positioning
2. Probability 30-50%: Increased hedging, reduced leverage
3. Probability 50-70%: Defensive positioning, cash building
4. Probability > 70%: Maximum defensive posture, short exposure consideration
#### Risk Management Integration:
- Position Sizing: Inverse relationship between probability and position size
- Stop-Loss Adjustment: Tighter stops during elevated risk periods
- Correlation Monitoring: Increased attention to cross-asset correlations
## Strengths and Advantages
### 1. Comprehensive Coverage
The model's primary strength lies in its multi-dimensional approach, avoiding the single-factor bias that has historically plagued market timing models. By incorporating macroeconomic, technical, sentiment, and breadth factors, the model provides robust risk assessment across different market regimes.
### 2. Dynamic Adaptability
The adaptive threshold mechanism allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing volatility conditions, reducing false signals during low-volatility periods and maintaining sensitivity during high-volatility regimes.
### 3. Real-Time Processing
Unlike traditional academic models that rely on monthly or quarterly data, this indicator processes daily market data, providing timely risk assessment for active portfolio management.
### 4. Transparency and Interpretability
The component-based structure allows users to understand which factors are driving risk assessment, enabling informed decision-making about model signals.
### 5. Historical Validation
Each component has been validated in academic literature, providing theoretical foundation for the model's predictive power.
## Limitations and Weaknesses
### 1. Data Dependencies
The model's effectiveness depends heavily on the availability and quality of real-time economic data. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) updates may have lags that could impact model responsiveness during rapidly evolving market conditions.
### 2. Regime Change Sensitivity
Like most quantitative models, the indicator may struggle during unprecedented market conditions or structural regime changes where historical relationships break down (Taleb, 2007).
### 3. False Signal Risk
Multi-factor models inherently face the challenge of balancing sensitivity with specificity. The model may generate false positive signals during normal market volatility periods.
### 4. Currency and Geographic Bias
The model focuses primarily on US market indicators, potentially limiting its effectiveness for global portfolio management or non-USD denominated assets.
### 5. Correlation Breakdown
During extreme market stress, correlations between risk factors may increase dramatically, reducing the model's diversification benefits (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002).
## References
Akram, Q. F. (2009). Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. Energy Economics, 31(6), 838-851.
Ang, A., Piazzesi, M., & Wei, M. (2006). What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth? Journal of Econometrics, 131(1-2), 359-403.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
Beckmann, J., Berger, T., & Czudaj, R. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48, 16-24.
Bekaert, G., & Hoerova, M. (2014). The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 183(2), 181-192.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764.
Brown, G. W., & Cliff, M. T. (2004). Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.
Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1998). Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(2), 11-26.
Dow, C. H. (1901). Scientific stock speculation. The Magazine of Wall Street.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1989). Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25(1), 23-49.
Forbes, K. J., & Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market comovements. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223-2261.
Fosback, N. G. (1976). Stock market logic: A sophisticated approach to profits on Wall Street. The Institute for Econometric Research.
Gilchrist, S., & Zakrajšek, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations. American Economic Review, 102(4), 1692-1720.
Harvey, C. R. (1988). The real term structure and consumption growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(2), 305-333.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Magdon-Ismail, M., & Atiya, A. F. (2004). Maximum drawdown. Risk, 17(10), 99-102.
Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220.
Pagan, A. R., & Sossounov, K. A. (2003). A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 23-46.
Pan, J., & Poteshman, A. M. (2006). The information in option volume for future stock prices. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(3), 871-908.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.
Whaley, R. E. (2009). Understanding the VIX. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35(3), 98-105.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New concepts in technical trading systems. Trend Research.
Zarowin, P. (1990). Size, seasonality, and stock market overreaction. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 25(1), 113-125.
Zweig, M. E. (1986). Winning on Wall Street. Warner Books.
Schaff Trend Cycle (STC)The STC (Schaff Trend Cycle) indicator is a momentum oscillator that combines elements of MACD and stochastic indicators to identify market cycles and potential trend reversals.
Key features of the STC indicator:
Oscillates between 0 and 100, similar to a stochastic oscillator
Values above 75 generally indicate overbought conditions
Values below 25 generally indicate oversold conditions
Signal line crossovers (above 75 or below 25) can suggest potential entry/exit points
Faster and more responsive than traditional MACD
Designed to filter out market noise and identify cyclical trends
Traders typically use the STC indicator to:
Identify potential trend reversals
Confirm existing trends
Generate buy/sell signals when combined with other technical indicators
Filter out false signals in choppy market conditions
This STC implementation includes multiple smoothing options that act as filters:
None: Raw STC values without additional smoothing, which provides the most responsive but potentially noisier signals.
EMA Smoothing: Applies a 3-period Exponential Moving Average to reduce noise while maintaining reasonable responsiveness (default).
Sigmoid Smoothing: Transforms the STC values using a sigmoid (S-curve) function, creating more gradual transitions between signals and potentially reducing whipsaw trades.
Digital (Schmitt Trigger) Smoothing: Creates a binary output (0 or 100) with built-in hysteresis to prevent rapid switching.
The STC indicator uses dynamic color coding to visually represent momentum:
Green: When the STC value is above its 5-period EMA, indicating positive momentum
Red: When the STC value is below its 5-period EMA, indicating negative momentum
The neutral zone (25-75) is highlighted with a light gray fill to clearly distinguish between normal and extreme readings.
Alerts:
Bullish Signal Alert:
The STC has been falling
It bottoms below the 25 level
It begins to rise again
This pattern helps confirm potential uptrend starts with higher reliability.
Bearish Signal Alert:
The STC has been rising
It peaks above the 75 level
It begins to decline
This pattern helps identify potential downtrend starts.
ADX + DMI (HMA Version)📝 Description (What This Indicator Does)
🚀 ADX + DMI (HMA Version) is a trend strength oscillator that enhances the traditional ADX by using the Hull Moving Average (HMA) instead of EMA.
✅ This results in a much faster and more responsive trend detection while filtering out choppy price action.
🎯 What This Indicator Does:
1️⃣ Measures Trend Strength – ADX shows when a trend is strong or weak.
2️⃣ Identifies Trend Direction – DI+ (Green) shows bullish momentum, DI- (Red) shows bearish momentum.
3️⃣ Uses Hull Moving Average (HMA) for Faster Signals – Removes lag and reacts faster to trend changes.
4️⃣ Reduces False Signals – Traditional ADX lags behind, but this version reacts quickly to reversals.
5️⃣ Good for Scalping & Day Trading – Especially for BTC 5-min and lower timeframes.
⚙ Indicator Inputs (Customization)
Input Name Example Value Purpose
ADX Length 14 Defines the smoothing for the ADX value.
DI Length 14 Defines how DI+ and DI- are calculated.
HMA Length 24 Hull Moving Average smoothing for ADX & DI+.
Trend Threshold 25 The level above which ADX confirms a strong trend.
📌 You can adjust these settings to optimize for different assets and timeframes.
🎯 Trading Rules & How to Use It
✅ How to Identify a Strong Trend:
When ADX (Blue Line) is above 25→ A strong trend is in play.
When ADX is below 25 → The market is choppy or ranging.
✅ How to Use DI+ and DI- for Trend Direction:
If DI+ (Green) is above DI- (Red), the market is in an uptrend.
If DI- (Red) is above DI+ (Green), the market is in a downtrend.
✅ How to Confirm Entries & Exits:
1️⃣ Enter Long when DI+ crosses above DI- while ADX is rising above 25.
2️⃣ Enter Short when DI- crosses above DI+ while ADX is rising above 25.
3️⃣ Avoid trading when ADX is below 25 – the market is in a choppy range.
This should not be used as a stand alone oscillator. Trading takes skill and is risky. Use at your own risk.
This is not advise on how to trade, these are just examples of how I use the oscillator. Trade at your own risk.
You can put this on your chart versus the tradingview adx and you can adjust the settings to see the difference. This was optimized for btc on the 5 min chart. You can adjust for your trading strategy.
BTCUSD with adjustable sl,tpThis strategy is designed for swing traders who want to enter long positions on pullbacks after a short-term trend shift, while also allowing immediate short entries when conditions favor downside movement. It combines SMA crossovers, a fixed-percentage retracement entry, and adjustable risk management parameters for optimal trade execution.
Key Features:
✅ Trend Confirmation with SMA Crossover
The 10-period SMA crossing above the 25-period SMA signals a bullish trend shift.
The 10-period SMA crossing below the 25-period SMA signals a bearish trend shift.
Short trades are only taken if the price is below the 150 EMA, ensuring alignment with the broader trend.
📉 Long Pullback Entry Using Fixed Percentage Retracement
Instead of entering immediately on the SMA crossover, the strategy waits for a retracement before going long.
The pullback entry is defined as a percentage retracement from the recent high, allowing for an optimized entry price.
The retracement percentage is fully adjustable in the settings (default: 1%).
A dynamic support level is plotted on the chart to visualize the pullback entry zone.
📊 Short Entry Rules
If the SMA(10) crosses below the SMA(25) and price is below the 150 EMA, a short trade is immediately entered.
Risk Management & Exit Strategy:
🚀 Take Profit (TP) – Fully customizable profit target in points. (Default: 1000 points)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL) – Adjustable stop loss level in points. (Default: 250 points)
🔄 Break-Even (BE) – When price moves in favor by a set number of points, the stop loss is moved to break-even.
📌 Extra Exit Condition for Longs:
If the SMA(10) crosses below SMA(25) while the price is still below the EMA150, the strategy force-exits the long position to avoid reversals.
How to Use This Strategy:
Enable the strategy on your TradingView chart (recommended for stocks, forex, or indices).
Customize the settings – Adjust TP, SL, BE, and pullback percentage for your risk tolerance.
Observe the plotted retracement levels – When the price touches and bounces off the level, a long trade is triggered.
Let the strategy manage the trade – Break-even protection and take-profit logic will automatically execute.
Ideal Market Conditions:
✅ Trending Markets – The strategy works best when price follows strong trends.
✅ Stocks, Indices, or Forex – Can be applied across multiple asset classes.
✅ Medium-Term Holding Period – Suitable for swing trades lasting days to weeks.
O'Neil Earnings StabilityO'Neil Earnings Stability Indicator
This indicator implements William O'Neil's earnings stability analysis, a key factor in identifying high-quality growth stocks. It measures both earnings stability (1-99 scale) and growth rate.
Scale Interpretation:
• 1-25: Highly stable earnings (ideal)
• 26-30: Moderately stable
• >30: More cyclical/less dependable
The stability score is calculated by measuring deviations from the earnings trend line, with lower scores indicating more consistent growth. Combined with the annual growth rate (target ≥25%), this helps identify stocks with both steady and strong earnings growth.
Optimal Criteria:
✓ Stability Score < 25
✓ Annual Growth > 25%
This tool helps filter out stocks with erratic earnings patterns and identify those with proven, sustainable growth records. Green label indicates both criteria are met; red indicates one or both criteria failed."
Would you like me to modify any part of this description or add more details about specific aspects of the calculation?
The key concepts in these calculations:
Stability Score (1-99 scale):
Lower score = more stable
Takes average deviation from mean earnings
Uses logarithmic scaling to emphasize smaller deviations
Multiplies by 20 to get into 1-99 range
Score ≤ 25 meets O'Neil's criteria
Growth Rate:
Year-over-year comparison (current quarter vs same quarter last year)
Calculated as percentage change
Growth ≥ 25% meets O'Neil's criteria
O'Neil's Combined Criteria:
Stability Score should be ≤ 25 (indicating stable earnings)
Growth Rate should be ≥ 25% (indicating strong growth)
Both must be met for ideal conditions
MTF RSI CandlesThis Pine Script indicator is designed to provide a visual representation of Relative Strength Index (RSI) values across multiple timeframes. It enhances traditional candlestick charts by color-coding candles based on RSI levels, offering a clearer picture of overbought, oversold, and sideways market conditions. Additionally, it displays a hoverable table with RSI values for multiple predefined timeframes.
Key Features
1. Candle Coloring Based on RSI Levels:
Candles are color-coded based on predefined RSI ranges for easy interpretation of market conditions.
RSI Levels:
75-100: Strongest Overbought (Green)
65-75: Stronger Overbought (Dark Green)
55-65: Overbought (Teal)
45-55: Sideways (Gray)
35-45: Oversold (Light Red)
25-35: Stronger Oversold (Dark Red)
0-25: Strongest Oversold (Bright Red)
2. Multi-Timeframe RSI Table:
Displays RSI values for the following timeframes:
1 Min, 2 Min, 3 Min, 4 Min, 5 Min
10 Min, 15 Min, 30 Min, 1 Hour, 1 Day, 1 Week
Helps traders identify RSI trends across different time horizons.
3. Hoverable RSI Values:
Displays the RSI value of any candle when hovering over it, providing additional insights for analysis.
Inputs
1. RSI Length:
Default: 14
Determines the calculation period for the RSI indicator.
2. RSI Levels:
Configurable thresholds for RSI zones:
75-100: Strongest Overbought
65-75: Stronger Overbought
55-65: Overbought
45-55: Sideways
35-45: Oversold
25-35: Stronger Oversold
0-25: Strongest Oversold
How It Works:
1. RSI Calculation:
The RSI is calculated for the current timeframe using the input RSI Length.
It is also computed for 11 additional predefined timeframes using request.security.
2. Candle Coloring:
Candles are colored based on their RSI values and the specified RSI levels.
3. Hoverable RSI Values:
Each candle displays its RSI value when hovered over, via a dynamically created label.
Multi-Timeframe Table:
A table at the bottom-left of the chart displays RSI values for all predefined timeframes, making it easy to compare trends.
Usage:
1. Trend Identification:
Use candle colors to quickly assess market conditions (overbought, oversold, or sideways).
2. Timeframe Analysis:
Compare RSI values across different timeframes to determine long-term and short-term momentum.
3. Signal Confirmation:
Combine RSI signals with other indicators or patterns for higher-confidence trades.
Best Practices
Use this indicator in conjunction with volume analysis, support/resistance levels, or trendline strategies for better results.
Customize RSI levels and timeframes based on your trading strategy or market conditions.
Limitations
RSI is a lagging indicator and may not always predict immediate market reversals.
Multi-timeframe analysis can lead to conflicting signals; consider your trading horizon.
DNSE VN301!, SMA & EMA Cross StrategyDiscover the tailored Pinescript to trade VN30F1M Future Contracts intraday, the strategy focuses on SMA & EMA crosses to identify potential entry/exit points. The script closes all positions by 14:25 to avoid holding any contracts overnight.
HNX:VN301!
www.tradingview.com
Setting & Backtest result:
1-minute chart, initial capital of VND 100 million, entering 4 contracts per time, backtest result from Jan-2024 to Nov-2024 yielded a return over 40%, executed over 1,000 trades (average of 4 trades/day), winning trades rate ~ 30% with a profit factor of 1.10.
The default setting of the script:
A decent optimization is reached when SMA and EMA periods are set to 60 and 15 respectively while the Long/Short stop-loss level is set to 20 ticks (2 points) from the entry price.
Entry & Exit conditions:
Long signals are generated when ema(15) crosses over sma(60) while Short signals happen when ema(15) crosses under sma(60). Long orders are closed when ema(15) crosses under sma(60) while Short orders are closed when ema(15) crosses over sma(60).
Exit conditions happen when (whichever came first):
Another Long/Short signal is generated
The Stop-loss level is reached
The Cut-off time is reached (14:25 every day)
*Disclaimers:
Futures Contracts Trading are subjected to a high degree of risk and price movements can fluctuate significantly. This script functions as a reference source and should be used after users have clearly understood how futures trading works, accessed their risk tolerance level, and are knowledgeable of the functioning logic behind the script.
Users are solely responsible for their investment decisions, and DNSE is not responsible for any potential losses from applying such a strategy to real-life trading activities. Past performance is not indicative/guarantee of future results, kindly reach out to us should you have specific questions about this script.
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Khám phá Pinescript được thiết kế riêng để giao dịch Hợp đồng tương lai VN30F1M trong ngày, chiến lược tập trung vào các đường SMA & EMA cắt nhau để xác định các điểm vào/ra tiềm năng. Chiến lược sẽ đóng tất cả các vị thế trước 14:25 để tránh giữ bất kỳ hợp đồng nào qua đêm.
Thiết lập & Kết quả backtest:
Chart 1 phút, vốn ban đầu là 100 triệu đồng, vào 4 hợp đồng mỗi lần, kết quả backtest từ tháng 1/2024 tới tháng 11/2024 mang lại lợi nhuận trên 40%, thực hiện hơn 1.000 giao dịch (trung bình 4 giao dịch/ngày), tỷ lệ giao dịch thắng ~ 30% với hệ số lợi nhuận là 1,10.
Thiết lập mặc định của chiến lược:
Đạt được một mức tối ưu ổn khi SMA và EMA periods được đặt lần lượt là 60 và 15 trong khi mức cắt lỗ được đặt thành 20 tick (2 điểm) từ giá vào.
Điều kiện Mở và Đóng vị thế:
Tín hiệu Long được tạo ra khi ema(15) cắt trên sma(60) trong khi tín hiệu Short xảy ra khi ema(15) cắt dưới sma(60). Lệnh Long được đóng khi ema(15) cắt dưới sma(60) trong khi lệnh Short được đóng khi ema(15) cắt lên sma(60).
Điều kiện đóng vị thể xảy ra khi (tùy điều kiện nào đến trước):
Một tín hiệu Long/Short khác được tạo ra
Giá chạm mức cắt lỗ
Lệnh chưa đóng nhưng tới giờ cut-off (14:25 hàng ngày)
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