Machine Learning Moving Average [LuxAlgo]The Machine Learning Moving Average (MLMA) is a responsive moving average making use of the weighting function obtained Gaussian Process Regression method. Characteristic such as responsiveness and smoothness can be adjusted by the user from the settings.
The moving average also includes bands, used to highlight possible reversals.
🔶 USAGE
The Machine Learning Moving Average smooths out noisy variations from the price, directly estimating the underlying trend in the price.
A higher "Window" setting will return a longer-term moving average while increasing the "Forecast" setting will affect the responsiveness and smoothness of the moving average, with higher positive values returning a more responsive moving average and negative values returning a smoother but less responsive moving average.
Do note that an excessively high "Forecast" setting will result in overshoots, with the moving average having a poor fit with the price.
The moving average color is determined according to the estimated trend direction based on the bands described below, shifting to blue (default) in an uptrend and fushia (default) in downtrends.
The upper and lower extremities represent the range within which price movements likely fluctuate.
Signals are generated when the price crosses above or below the band extremities, with turning points being highlighted by colored circles on the chart.
🔶 SETTINGS
Window: Calculation period of the moving average. Higher values yield a smoother average, emphasizing long-term trends and filtering out short-term fluctuations.
Forecast: Sets the projection horizon for Gaussian Process Regression. Higher values create a more responsive moving average but will result in more overshoots, potentially worsening the fit with the price. Negative values will result in a smoother moving average.
Sigma: Controls the standard deviation of the Gaussian kernel, influencing weight distribution. Higher Sigma values return a longer-term moving average.
Multiplicative Factor: Adjusts the upper and lower extremity bounds, with higher values widening the bands and lowering the amount of returned turning points.
🔶 RELATED SCRIPTS
Machine-Learning-Gaussian-Process-Regression
SuperTrend-AI-Clustering
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ADX (levels)This Pine Script indicator calculates and displays the Average Directional Index (ADX) along with the DI+ and DI- lines to help identify the strength and direction of a trend. The script is designed for Pine Script v6 and includes customizable settings for a more tailored analysis.
Features:
ADX Calculation:
The ADX measures the strength of a trend without indicating its direction.
It uses a smoothing method for more reliable trend strength detection.
DI+ and DI- Lines (Optional):
The DI+ (Directional Index Plus) and DI- (Directional Index Minus) help determine the direction of the trend:
DI+ indicates upward movement.
DI- indicates downward movement.
These lines are disabled by default but can be enabled via input settings.
Customizable Threshold:
A horizontal line (hline) is plotted at a user-defined threshold level (default: 20) to highlight significant ADX values that indicate a strong trend.
Slope Analysis:
The slope of the ADX is analyzed to classify the trend into:
Strong Trend: Slope is higher than a defined "medium" threshold.
Moderate Trend: Slope falls between "weak" and "medium" thresholds.
Weak Trend: Slope is positive but below the "weak" threshold.
A background color changes dynamically to reflect the strength of the trend:
Green (light or dark) indicates trend strength levels.
Custom Colors:
ADX color is customizable (default: pink #e91e63).
Background colors for trend strength can also be adjusted.
Independent Plot Window:
The indicator is displayed in a separate window below the price chart, making it easier to analyze trend strength without cluttering the main price chart.
Parameters:
ADX Period: Defines the lookback period for calculating the ADX (default: 14).
Threshold (hline): A horizontal line value to differentiate strong trends (default: 20).
Slope Thresholds: Adjustable thresholds for weak, moderate, and strong trend slopes.
Enable DI+ and DI-: Boolean options to display or hide the DI+ and DI- lines.
Colors: Customizable colors for ADX, background gradients, and other elements.
How to Use:
Identify Trend Strength:
Use the ADX value to determine the strength of a trend:
Below 20: Weak trend.
Above 20: Strong trend.
Analyze Trend Direction:
Enable DI+ and DI- to check whether the trend is upward (DI+ > DI-) or downward (DI- > DI+).
Dynamic Slope Detection:
Use the background color as a quick visual cue to assess trend strength changes.
This indicator is ideal for traders who want to measure trend strength and direction dynamically while maintaining a clean and organized chart layout.
FTD & DD AnalyzerFTD & DD Analyzer
A comprehensive tool for identifying Follow-Through Days (FTDs) and Distribution Days (DDs) to analyze market conditions and potential trend changes, based on William J. O'Neil's proven methodology.
About the Methodology
This indicator implements the market analysis techniques developed by William J. O'Neil, founder of Investor's Business Daily and author of "How to Make Money in Stocks." O'Neil's research, spanning market data back to the 1880s, has successfully identified major market turns throughout history. His FTD and DD concepts remain crucial tools for institutional investors and serious traders.
Overview
This indicator helps traders identify two critical market conditions:
Distribution Days (DDs) - days of institutional selling pressure
Follow-Through Days (FTDs) - confirmation of potential market bottoms and new uptrends
The combination of these signals provides valuable insight into market health and potential trend changes.
Key Features
Distribution Day detection with customizable criteria
Follow-Through Day identification based on classical methodology
Market bottom detection using EMA analysis
Dynamic warning system for accumulated Distribution Days
Visual alerts with customizable labels
Advanced debug mode for detailed analysis
Flexible display options for different trading styles
Distribution Days Analysis
What is a Distribution Day?
A Distribution Day occurs when:
The price closes lower by a specified percentage (default -0.2%)
Volume is higher than the previous day
DD Settings
Price Threshold: Minimum price decline to qualify (default -0.2%)
Lookback Period: Number of days to analyze for DD accumulation (default 25)
Warning Levels:
First warning at 4 DDs
Severe warning (SOS - Sign of Strength) at 6 DDs
Display Options:
Show/hide DD count
Show/hide DD labels
Choose between showing all DDs or only within lookback period
Follow-Through Day Detection
What is a Follow-Through Day?
Following O'Neil's research, a Follow-Through Day confirms a potential market bottom when:
Occurs between day 4 and 13 after a bottom formation (optimal: days 4-7)
Shows significant price gain (default 1.5%)
Accompanied by higher volume than the previous day
Key Statistics:
FTDs followed by distribution on days 1-2 fail 95% of the time
Distribution on day 3 leads to 70% failure rate
Later distribution (days 4-5) shows only 30% failure rate
FTD Settings
Minimum Price Gain: Required percentage gain (default 1.5%)
Valid Window: Day 4 to Day 13 after bottom
Quality Rating:
🚀 for FTDs occurring within 7 days (historically most reliable)
⭐ for later FTDs
Market Bottom Detection
The indicator uses a sophisticated approach to identify potential market bottoms:
EMA Analysis:
Tracks 8 and 21-period EMAs
Monitors EMA alignment and momentum
Customizable tolerance levels
Price Action:
Looks for lower lows within specified lookback period
Confirms bottom with subsequent price action
Reset mechanism to prevent false signals
Visual Indicators
Label Types
📉 Distribution Days
⬇️ Market Bottoms
🚀/⭐ Follow-Through Days
⚠️ DD Warning Levels
Customization Options
Label size: Tiny, Small, Normal, Large
Label style: Default, Arrows, Triangles
Background colors for different signals
Dynamic positioning using ATR multiplier
Practical Usage
1. Monitor DD Accumulation:
Watch for increasing number of Distribution Days
Pay attention to warning levels (4 and 6 DDs)
Consider reducing exposure when warnings appear
2. Bottom Recognition:
Look for potential bottom formations
Monitor EMA alignment and price action
Wait for confirmation signals
3. FTD Confirmation:
Track days after potential bottom
Watch for strong price/volume action in valid window
Note FTD quality rating for additional context
Alert System
Built-in alerts for:
New Distribution Days
Follow-Through Day signals
High DD accumulation warnings
Tips for Best Results
Use multiple timeframes for confirmation
Combine with other market health indicators
Pay attention to sector rotation and market leadership
Monitor volume patterns for confirmation
Consider market context and external factors
Technical Notes
The indicator uses advanced array handling for DD tracking
Dynamic calculations ensure accurate signal generation
Debug mode available for detailed analysis
Optimized for real-time and historical analysis
Additional Information
Compatible with all markets and timeframes
Best suited for daily charts
Regular updates and maintenance
Based on O'Neil's time-tested market analysis principles
Conclusion
The FTD & DD Analyzer provides a systematic approach to market analysis, combining O'Neil's proven methodologies with modern technical analysis. It helps traders identify potential market turns while monitoring institutional participation through volume analysis.
Remember that no indicator is perfect - always use in conjunction with other analysis tools and proper risk management.
IronBot v3Introduction
IronBot V3 is a TradingView indicator that analyzes market trends, identifies potential trading opportunities, and helps manage trades by visualizing entry points, stop-loss levels, and take-profit targets.
How It Works
The indicator evaluates price action within a specified analysis window to determine market trends. It uses Fibonacci retracement levels to identify key price levels for trend detection and trading signals. Based on user-defined inputs, it calculates and displays trade levels, including entry points, stop-loss, and multiple take-profit levels.
Trend Definition:
The highest high and lowest low are calculated over a specified number of candles.
The price range is determined as the difference between the highest high and lowest low.
Three Fibonacci levels are calculated within this range:
- Fib Level 0.236
- Trend Line (0.5 level)
- Fib Level 0.786
Determining Long and Short Conditions:
Long Conditions (Buy):
The closing price must be above both the trend line (0.5 level) and the Fib Level 0.236.
Additionally, the market must not currently be in a bearish trend.
Short Conditions (Sell):
The closing price must be below both the trend line and the Fib Level 0.786.
The market must not currently be in a bullish trend.
Trend State Updates:
When a condition is met, the indicator sets the trend to bullish or bearish and turns off bearish or bullish trend conditions.
If neither buy nor sell conditions are met, the trend remains unchanged, and no new trade signals are generated.
Inputs and Their Role in the Algorithm
General Settings
Analysis Window: Specifies the number of historical candles to analyze. This influences the calculation of key levels such as highs and lows, which are critical for determining Fibonacci retracement levels.
First Trade: Defines the start date for generating trading signals.
Trade Configuration
Display TP/SL: Enables or disables the visualization of take-profit and stop-loss levels on the chart.
Leverage: Defines the leverage applied to trades for risk and position size calculations.
Initial Capital: Specifies the starting capital, which is used for calculating position sizes and profits.
Exchange Fees (%): Sets the percentage of fees applied by the exchange, which is factored into profit calculations.
Country Tax (%): Allows users to define applicable taxes, which are subtracted from net profits.
Stop-Loss Configuration
Break Even: Toggles the break-even functionality. When enabled, the stop-loss level adjusts dynamically as take-profit levels are reached.
Stop Loss (%): Defines the percentage distance from the entry price to the stop-loss level.
Take-Profit Settings
The indicator supports up to four take-profit levels:
- TP1 through TP4 Ratios: Specify the price levels for each take-profit target as a percentage of the entry price.
- Profit Percentages: Allocate a percentage of the position size to each take-profit level.
Visualization Elements
Trend Indicators: Displays Fibonacci-based trend lines and markers for bullish or bearish conditions.
Trade Levels: Entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels are visualized on the chart by dotted lines for clarity. Additionally, a semi-transparent background is applied when a portion of the trade is closed to enhance visualization. Positive profits from a closed trade are green; otherwise, they are red.
Trade Profit Indicator: On each trade, every time a part of the trade is closed (e.g., take profit is reached), the profit indicator will be updated.
Performance Panel: Summarizes key account statistics, including net balance, profit/loss, and trading performance metrics.
Usage Guidelines
Add the indicator to your TradingView chart.
Configure the input settings based on your trading strategy.
Use the displayed levels and trend signals to make informed trading decisions.
Contact
For further assistance, including automation inquiries, feel free to contact me through TradingView’s messaging system.
Purpose and Disclaimer
IronBot V3 is designed for educational purposes and to assist in analyzing market trends. It is not financial advice, and users should perform their own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this indicator responsibly.
ADX Breakout Strategy█ OVERVIEW
The ADX Breakout strategy leverages the Average Directional Index (ADX) to identify and execute breakout trades within specified trading sessions. Designed for the NQ and ES 30-minute charts, this strategy aims to capture significant price movements while managing risk through predefined stop losses and trade limits.
This strategy was taken from a strategy that was posted on YouTube. I would link the video, but I believe is is "against house rules".
█ CONCEPTS
The strategy is built upon the following key concepts:
ADX Indicator: Utilizes the ADX to gauge the strength of a trend. Trades are initiated when the ADX value is below a certain threshold, indicating potential for trend development.
Trade Session Management: Limits trading to specific hours to align with optimal market activity periods.
Risk Management: Implements a fixed dollar stop loss and restricts the number of trades per session to control exposure.
█ FEATURES
Customizable Stop Loss: Set your preferred stop loss amount to manage risk effectively.
Trade Session Configuration: Define the trading hours to focus on the most active market periods.
Entry Conditions: Enter long positions when the price breaks above the highest close in the lookback window and the ADX indicates potential trend strength.
Trade Limits: Restrict the number of trades per session to maintain disciplined trading.
Automated Exit: Automatically closes all positions at the end of the trading session to avoid overnight risk.
█ HOW TO USE
Configure Inputs :
Stop Loss ($): Set the maximum loss per trade.
Trade Session: Define the active trading hours.
Highest Lookback Window: Specify the number of bars to consider for the highest close.
Apply the Strategy :
Add the ADX Breakout strategy to your chart on TradingView.
Ensure you are using a 30-minute timeframe for optimal performance.
█ LIMITATIONS
Market Conditions: The strategy is optimized for trending markets and may underperform in sideways or highly volatile conditions.
Timeframe Specific: Designed specifically for 30-minute charts; performance may vary on different timeframes.
Single Asset Focus: Primarily tested on NQ and ES instruments; effectiveness on other symbols is not guaranteed.
█ DISCLAIMER
This ADX Breakout strategy is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be construed as such. Trading involves significant risk, and you may incur substantial losses. Always perform your own analysis and consider your financial situation before using this or any other trading strategy. The source material for this strategy is publicly available in the comments at the beginning of the code script. This strategy has been published openly for anyone to review and verify its methodology and performance.
Relative Strength Scatter Plot [LuxAlgo]The Relative Strength Scatter Plot indicator is a tool that shows the historical performance of various user-selected securities against a selected benchmark.
This tool is inspired by Relative Rotation Graphs®. Relative Rotation Graphs® is a registered trademark of JOOS Holdings B.V. This script is neither endorsed, nor sponsored, nor affiliated with them.
🔶 USAGE
This tool depicts a simple scatter plot using the relative strength ratio as the X-axis and its momentum as the Y-axis of the user-selected symbols against the selected benchmark.
The graph is divided into four quadrants, and the interpretation of the graph is done depending on where a point is situated on the graph:
A point in the green quadrant would indicate that the security is leading the benchmark in strength, with positive strength momentum.
A point in the yellow quadrant would indicate that the security is leading the benchmark in strength, with negative strength momentum.
A point in the blue quadrant would indicate that the security is lagging behind the benchmark in strength, with positive strength momentum.
A point in the red quadrant would indicate that the security is lagging behind the benchmark in strength, with negative strength momentum.
The trail of each symbol allows the user to see the evolution of the relative strength momentum relative to the relative strength ratio. The length of the trail can be controlled by the "Trail Length" setting.
🔶 DETAILS
Our relative strength ratio estimate is first obtained from the relative strength between the symbol of interest and the benchmark, the result is then smoothed using a linearly weighted moving average (wma). This result is then normalized with a wma of the smoothed relative strength, this ratio is again smoothed with the wma and multiplied by 100.
The relative strength momentum estimate is obtained from the ratio between the previously estimated RS-Ratio and its wma, this ratio is then multiplied by 100.
🔶 SETTINGS
Calculation Window: Calculation window of the RS-Ratio and RS-Momentum metrics.
Symbols: Symbols used for the computation of the graph, each settings line allows us to determine whether the symbol is to be displayed on the graph as well as its color.
Benchmark: Benchmark symbol used for the computation of the graph. Indices are commonly used as a benchmark.
🔹 Graph Settings
Trail Length: Number of past data points to display on the graph for each symbol.
Resolution: Controls the horizontal length of the graph.
THISMA btccorrelationDescription:
This is a tool designed for traders who want to analyze correlation between any traded crypto's price in USD and the price of Bitcoin in USD.
Key Features:
Adjustable Correlation Window: The script features an input parameter that allows traders to set the length of the correlation window, with a default value of 14. Lower if you want faster granularity.
Clear Visualization: The correlation coefficient is plotted in a distinct pane below the main trading chart.
Reference Lines for Interpretation: Horizontal reference lines are included at 0.5 (indicating weak positive correlation), -0.5 (indicating weak negative correlation), and 0 (indicating no correlation). These lines, color-coded in green, red, and gray respectively, assist traders in quickly interpreting the correlation coefficient's value.
Applications:
Market Insight: If you want to be able to monitor if you should enter a trade on an altcoin or if its better to stick to Bitcoin to avoid being double exposed.
Risk Management: Identifying the correlation can help in assessing and managing the systemic risk associated with market movements, especially in cryptocurrency markets where Bitcoin's influence is significant.
Kernel Regression ToolkitThis toolkit provides filters and extra functionality for non-repainting Nadaraya-Watson estimator implementations made by @jdehorty. For the sake of ease I have nicknamed it "kreg". Filters include a smoothing formula and zero lag formula. The purpose of this script is to help traders test, experiment and develop different regression lines. Regression lines are best used as trend lines and can be an invaluable asset for quickly locating first pullbacks and breaks of trends.
Other features include two J lines and a blend line. J lines are featured in tools like Stochastic KDJ. The formula uses the distance between K and D lines to make the J line. The blend line adds the ability to blend two lines together. This can be useful for several tasks including finding a center/median line between two lines or for blending in the characteristics of a different line. Default is set to 50 which is a 50% blend of the two lines. This can be increased and decreased to taste. This tool can be overlaid on the chart or on top of another indicator if you set the source. It can even be moved into its own window to create a unique oscillator based on whatever sources you feed it.
Below are the standard settings for the kernel estimation as documented by @jdehorty:
Lookback Window: The number of bars used for the estimation. This is a sliding value that represents the most recent historical bars. Recommended range: 3-50
Weighting: Relative weighting of time frames. As this value approaches zero, the longer time frames will exert more influence on the estimation. As this value approaches infinity, the behavior of the Rational Quadratic Kernel will become identical to the Gaussian kernel. Recommended range: 0.25-25
Level: Bar index on which to start regression. Controls how tightly fit the kernel estimate is to the data. Smaller values are a tighter fit. Larger values are a looser fit. Recommended range: 2-25
Lag: Lag for crossover detection. Lower values result in earlier crossovers. Recommended range: 1-2
For more information on this technique refer to to the original open source indicator by @jdehorty located here:
4H RangeThis script visualizes certain key values based on a 4-hour timeframe of the selected market on the chart. These values include the High, Mid, and Low price levels during each 4-hour period.
These levels can be helpful to identify inside range price action, chop, and consolidation. They can sometimes act as pivots and can be a great reference for potential entries and exits if price continues to hold the same range.
Here's a step-by-step overview of what this indicator does:
1. Inputs: At the beginning of the script, users are allowed to customize some inputs:
Choose the color of lines and labels.
Decide whether to show labels on the chart.
Choose the size of labels ("tiny", "small", "normal", or "large").
Choose whether to display price values in labels.
Set the number of bars to offset the labels to the right.
Set a threshold for the number of ticks that triggers a new calculation of high, mid, and low values.
* Tick settings may need to be increased on equity charts as one tick is usually equal to one cent.
For example, if you want to clear the range when there is a close one point/one dollar above or below the range high/low then on ES
that would be 4 ticks but one whole point on AAPL would be 100 ticks. 100 ticks on an equity chart may or may not be ideal due to
different % change of 100 ticks might be too excessive depending on the price per share.
So be aware that user preferred thresholds can vary greatly depending on which chart you're using.
2. Retrieving Price Data: The script retrieves the high, low, and closing price for every 4-hour period for the current market.
The script also calculates the mid-price of each 4-hour period (the average of the high and low prices).
3. Line Drawing: At the start of the script (first run), it draws three lines (high, mid, and low) at the levels corresponding to the high,
mid, and low prices. Users can also change transparency settings on historical lines to view them. Default setting for historical lines
is for them to be hidden.
4. Updating Lines and Labels: For each subsequent 4-hour period, the script checks whether the close price of the period has gone
beyond a certain threshold (set by user input) above the previous high or below the previous low. If it has, the script deletes the
previous lines and labels, draws new lines at the new high, mid, and low levels, and creates new labels (if the user has opted to
show labels).
5. Displaying Values in the Data Window: In addition to the visual representation on the chart, the script also plots the high, mid, and
low prices. These plotted values appear in the Data Window of TradingView, allowing users to see the exact price levels even when
they're not directly labeled on the chart.
6. Updating Lines and Labels Position: At the end of each period, the script moves the lines and labels (if they're shown) to the right,
keeping them aligned with the current period.
Please note: This script operates based on a 4-hour timeframe, regardless of the timeframe selected on the chart. If a shorter timeframe is selected on the chart, the lines and labels will appear to extend across multiple bars because they represent 4-hour price levels. If a longer timeframe is selected, the lines and labels may not accurately represent high, mid, and low levels within that longer timeframe.
Rolling QuartilesThis script will continuously draw a boxplot to represent quartiles associated with data points in the current rolling window.
Description :
A quartile is a statistical term that refers to the division of a dataset based on percentiles.
Q1 : Quartile 1 - 25th percentile
Q2 : Quartile 2 - 50th percentile, as known as the median
Q3 : Quartile 3 - 75th percentile
Other points to note:
Q0: the minimum
Q4: the maximum
Other properties :
- Q1 to Q3: a range is known as the interquartile range ( IQR ). It describes where 50% of data approximately lie.
- Line segments connecting IQR to min and max (Q0→Q1, and Q3→Q4) are known as whiskers . Data lying outside the whiskers are considered as outliers. However, such extreme values will not be found in a rolling window because whenever new datapoints are introduced to the dataset, the oldest values will get dropped out, leaving Q0 and Q4 to always point to the observable min and max values.
Applications :
This script has a feature that allows moving percentiles (moving values of Q1, Q2, and Q3) to be shown. This can be applied for trading in ways such as:
- Q2: as alternative to a SMA that uses the same lookback period. We know that the Mean (SMA) is highly sensitive to extreme values. On the other hand, Median (Q2) is less affected by skewness. Putting it together, if the SMA is significantly lower than Q2, then price is regarded as negatively skewed; prices of a few candles are likely exceptionally lower. Vice versa when price is positively skewed.
- Q1 and Q3: as lower and upper bands. As mentioned above, the IQR covers approximately 50% of data within the rolling window. If price is normally distributed, then Q1 and Q3 bands will overlap a bollinger band configured with +/- 0.67x standard deviations (modifying default: 2) above and below the mean.
- The boxplot, combined with TradingView's builtin bar replay feature, makes a great tool for studies purposes. This helps visualization of price at a chosen instance of time. Speaking of which, it can also be used in conjunction with a fixed volume profile to compare and contrast the effects (in terms of price range) with and without consideration of weights by volume.
Parameters :
- Lookback: The size of the rolling window.
- Offset: Location of boxplot, right hand side relative to recent bar.
- Source data: Data points for observation, default is closing price
- Other options such as color, and whether to show/hide various lines.
vol_boxA simple script to draw a realized volatility forecast, in the form of a box. The script calculates realized volatility using the EWMA method, using a number of periods of your choosing. Using the "periods per year", you can adjust the script to work on any time frame. For example, if you are using an hourly chart with bitcoin, there are 24 periods * 365 = 8760 periods per year. This setting is essential for the realized volatility figure to be accurate as an annualized figure, like VIX.
By default, the settings are set to mimic CBOE volatility indices. That is, 252 days per year, and 20 period window on the daily timeframe (simulating a 30 trading day period).
Inside the box are three figures:
1. The current realized volatility.
2. The rank. E.g. "10%" means the current realized volatility is less than 90% of realized volatility measures.
3. The "accuracy": how often price has closed within the box, historically.
Inputs:
stdevs: the number of standard deviations for the box
periods to project: the number of periods to forecast
window: the number of periods for calculating realized volatility
periods per year: the number of periods in one year (e.g. 252 for the "D" timeframe)
Levels Of Fear [AstrideUnicorn]"Buy at the level of maximum fear when everyone is selling." - says a well-known among traders wisdom. If an asset's price declines significantly from the most recent highest value or established range, traders start to worry. The higher the drawdown gets, the more fear market participants experience. During a sell-off, a feedback loop arises, in which the escalating fear and price decline strengthen each other.
The Levels Of Fear indicator helps analyze price declines and find the best times to buy an asset after a sell-off. In finance, volatility is a term that describes the degree of variation of an asset price over time. It is usually denoted by the letter σ (sigma) and estimated as the standard deviation of the asset price or price returns. The Levels Of Fear indicator helps measure the current price decline in the standard deviation units. It plots seven levels at distances of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 standard deviations (sigmas) below the base price (the recent highest price or upper bound of the established range). In what follows, we will refer to these levels as levels of fear.
HOW TO USE
When the price in its decline reaches a certain level of fear, it means that it has declined from its recent highest value by a corresponding number of standard deviations. The indicator helps traders see the minimum levels to which the price may fall and estimate the potential depth of the current decline based on the cause of the actual market shock. Five-seven sigma declines are relatively rare events and correspond to significant market shocks. In the lack of information, 5-7 sigma levels are good for buying an asset. Because when the price falls that deep, it corresponds to the maximum fear and pessimism in the market when most people are selling. In such situations, contrarian logic becomes the best decision.
SETTINGS
Window: the averaging window or period of the indicator. The algorithm uses this parameter to calculate the base level and standard deviations. Higher values are better for measuring deeper and longer declines.
Levels Stability: the parameter used in the decline detection. The higher the value is, the more stable and long the fear levels are, but at the same time, the lag increases. The lower it is, the faster the indicator responds to the price changes, but the fear levels are recalculated more frequently and are less stable. This parameter is mostly for fine-tuning. It does not change the overall picture much.
Mode: the parameter that defines the style for the labels. In the Cool Guys Mode , the indicator displays the labels as emojis. In the Serious Guys Mode , labels show the distance from the base level measured in standard deviation units or sigmas.
Liquidity Levels [LuxAlgo]The Peak Activity Levels indicator displays support and resistance levels from prices accompanied by significant volume. The indicator includes a histogram returning the frequency of closing prices falling between two parallel levels, each bin shows the number of bullish candles within the levels.
1. Settings
Length: Lookback for the detection of volume peaks.
Number Of Levels: Determines the number of levels to display.
Levels Color Mode: Determines how the levels should be colored. "Relative" will color the levels based on their location relative to the current price. "Random" will apply a random color to each level. "Fixed" will use a single color for each level.
Levels Style: Style of the displayed levels. Styles include solid, dashed, and dotted.
1.1 Histogram
Show Histogram: Determines whether to display the histogram or not.
Histogram Window: Lookback period of the histogram calculation.
Bins Colors: Control the color of the histogram bins.
2. Usage
The indicator can be used to display ready-to-use support and resistance. These are constructed from peaks in volume. When a peak occurs, we take the price where this peak occurred and use it as the value for our level.
If one of the levels was previously tested, we can hypothesize that the level might be used as support/resistance in the future. Additional analysis using volume can be done in order to confirm a potential bounce.
The histogram can return various information to the user. It can show if the price stayed within two levels for a long time and if the price within two levels was mostly made of bullish or bearish candles.
In the chart above, we can see that over the most recent 200 bars (determined by Histogram Window) 68 closing prices fall between levels A and B, with 27 bars being bullish.
Additionally, the width of a bin and its length can sometimes give information about the volatility of a specific price variation. If a bin is very wide but short (a low number of closing prices fallen within the levels) then we can conclude a most of the movement was done on a short amount of time.
vol_signalNote: This description is copied from the script comments. Please refer to the comments and release notes for updated information, as I am unable to edit and update this description.
----------
USAGE
This script gives signals based on a volatility forecast, e.g. for a stop
loss. It is a simplified version of my other script "trend_vol_forecast", which incorporates a trend following system and measures performance. The "X" labels indicate when the price touches (exceeds) a forecast. The signal occurs when price crosses "fcst_up" or "fcst_down".
There are only three parameters:
- volatility window: this is the number of periods (bars) used in the
historical volatility calculation. smaller number = reacts more
quickly to changes, but is a "noisier" signal.
- forecast periods: the number of periods for projecting a volatility
forecast. for example, "21" on a daily chart means the plots will
show the forecast from 21 days ago.
- forecast stdev: the number of standard deviations in the forecast.
for example, "2" means that price is expected to remain within
the forecast plot ~95% of the time. A higher number produces a
wider forecast.
The output table shows:
- realized vol: the volatility over the previous N periods, where N =
"volatility window".
- forecast vol: the realized volatility from N periods ago, where N =
"forecast periods"
- up/down fcst (level): the price level of the forecast for the next
N bars, where N = "forecast periods".
- up/down fcst (%): the difference between the current and forecast
price, expressed as a whole number percentage.
The plots show:
- blue/red plot: the upper/lower forecast from "forecast periods" ago.
- blue/red line: the upper/lower forecast for the next
"forecast periods".
- red/blue labels: an "X" where the price touched the forecast from
"forecast periods" ago.
+ NOTE: pinescript only draws a limited number of labels.
They will not appear very far into the past.
Density Zones (GM Crossing Clusters) + QHO Spin FlipsINDICATOR NAME
Density Zones (GM Crossing Clusters) + QHO Spin Flips
OVERVIEW
This indicator combines two complementary ideas into a single overlay: *this combines my earlier Geometric Mean Indicator with the Quantum Harmonic Oscillator (Overlay) with additional enhancements*
1) Density Zones (GM Crossing Clusters)
A “Density Zone” is detected when price repeatedly crosses a Geometric Mean equilibrium line (GM) within a rolling lookback window. Conceptually, this identifies regions where the market is repeatedly “snapping” across an equilibrium boundary—high churn, high decision pressure, and repeated re-selection of direction.
2) QHO Spin Flips (Regression-Residual σ Breaches)
A “Spin Flip” is detected when price deviates beyond a configurable σ-threshold (κ) from a regression-based equilibrium, using normalized residuals. Conceptually, this marks excursions into extreme states (decoherence / expansion), which often precede a reversion toward equilibrium and/or a regime re-scaling.
These two systems are related but not identical:
- Density Zones identify where equilibrium crossings cluster (a “singularity”/anchor behavior around GM).
- Spin Flips identify when price exceeds statistically extreme displacement from the regression equilibrium (LSR), indicating expansion beyond typical variance.
CORE CONCEPTS AND FORMULAS
SECTION A — GEOMETRIC MEAN EQUILIBRIUM (GM)
We define two moving averages:
(1) MA1_t = SMA(close_t, L1)
(2) MA2_t = SMA(close_t, L2)
We define the equilibrium anchor as the geometric mean of MA1 and MA2:
(3) GM_t = sqrt( MA1_t * MA2_t )
This GM line acts as an equilibrium boundary. Repeated crossings are interpreted as high “equilibrium churn.”
SECTION B — CROSS EVENTS (UP/DOWN)
A “cross event” is registered when the sign of (close - GM) changes:
Define a sign function s_t:
(4) s_t =
+1 if close_t > GM_t
-1 if close_t < GM_t
s_{t-1} if close_t == GM_t (tie-breaker to avoid false flips)
Then define the crossing event indicator:
(5) crossEvent_t = 1 if s_t != s_{t-1}
0 otherwise
Additionally, the indicator plots explicit cross markers:
- Cross Above GM: crossover(close, GM)
- Cross Below GM: crossunder(close, GM)
These provide directional visual cues and match the original Geometric Mean Indicator behavior.
SECTION C — DENSITY MEASURE (CROSSING CLUSTER COUNT)
A Density Zone is based on the number of cross events occurring in the last W bars:
(6) D_t = Σ_{i=0..W-1} crossEvent_{t-i}
This is a “crossing density” score: how many times price has toggled across GM recently.
The script implements this efficiently using a cumulative sum identity:
Let x_t = crossEvent_t.
(7) cumX_t = Σ_{j=0..t} x_j
Then:
(8) D_t = cumX_t - cumX_{t-W} (for t >= W)
cumX_t (for t < W)
SECTION D — DENSITY ZONE TRIGGER
We define a Density Zone state:
(9) isDZ_t = ( D_t >= θ )
where:
- θ (theta) is the user-selected crossing threshold.
Zone edges:
(10) dzStart_t = isDZ_t AND NOT isDZ_{t-1}
(11) dzEnd_t = NOT isDZ_t AND isDZ_{t-1}
SECTION E — DENSITY ZONE BOUNDS
While inside a Density Zone, we track the running high/low to display zone bounds:
(12) dzHi_t = max(dzHi_{t-1}, high_t) if isDZ_t
(13) dzLo_t = min(dzLo_{t-1}, low_t) if isDZ_t
On dzStart:
(14) dzHi_t := high_t
(15) dzLo_t := low_t
Outside zones, bounds are reset to NA.
These bounds visually bracket the “singularity span” (the churn envelope) during each density episode.
SECTION F — QHO EQUILIBRIUM (REGRESSION CENTERLINE)
Define the regression equilibrium (LSR):
(16) m_t = linreg(close_t, L, 0)
This is the “centerline” the QHO system uses as equilibrium.
SECTION G — RESIDUAL AND σ (FIELD WIDTH)
Residual:
(17) r_t = close_t - m_t
Rolling standard deviation of residuals:
(18) σ_t = stdev(r_t, L)
This σ_t is the local volatility/width of the residual field around the regression equilibrium.
SECTION H — NORMALIZED DISPLACEMENT AND SPIN FLIP
Define the standardized displacement:
(19) Y_t = (close_t - m_t) / σ_t
(If σ_t = 0, the script safely treats Y_t = 0.)
Spin Flip trigger uses a user threshold κ:
(20) spinFlip_t = ( |Y_t| > κ )
Directional spin flips:
(21) spinUp_t = ( Y_t > +κ )
(22) spinDn_t = ( Y_t < -κ )
The default κ=3.0 corresponds to “3σ excursions,” which are statistically extreme under a normal residual assumption (even though real markets are not perfectly normal).
SECTION I — QHO BANDS (OPTIONAL VISUALIZATION)
The indicator optionally draws the standard σ-bands around the regression equilibrium:
(23) 1σ bands: m_t ± 1·σ_t
(24) 2σ bands: m_t ± 2·σ_t
(25) 3σ bands: m_t ± 3·σ_t
These provide immediate context for the Spin Flip events.
WHAT YOU SEE ON THE CHART
1) MA1 / MA2 / GM lines (optional)
- MA1 (blue), MA2 (red), GM (green).
- GM is the equilibrium anchor for Density Zones and cross markers.
2) GM Cross Markers (optional)
- “GM↑” label markers appear on bars where close crosses above GM.
- “GM↓” label markers appear on bars where close crosses below GM.
3) Density Zone Shading (optional)
- Background shading appears while isDZ_t = true.
- This is the period where the crossing density D_t is above θ.
4) Density Zone High/Low Bounds (optional)
- Two lines (dzHi / dzLo) are drawn only while in-zone.
- These bounds bracket the full churn envelope during the density episode.
5) QHO Bands (optional)
- 1σ, 2σ, 3σ shaded zones around regression equilibrium.
- These visualize the current variance field.
6) Regression Equilibrium (LSR Centerline)
- The white centerline is the regression equilibrium m_t.
7) Spin Flip Markers
- A circle is plotted when |Y_t| > κ (beyond your chosen σ-threshold).
- Marker size is user-controlled (tiny → huge).
HOW TO USE IT
Step 1 — Pick the equilibrium anchor (GM)
- L1 and L2 define MA1 and MA2.
- GM = sqrt(MA1 * MA2) becomes your equilibrium boundary.
Typical choices:
- Faster equilibrium: L1=20, L2=50 (default-like).
- Slower equilibrium: L1=50, L2=200 (macro anchor).
Interpretation:
- GM acts like a “center of mass” between two moving averages.
- Crosses show when price flips from one side of equilibrium to the other.
Step 2 — Tune Density Zones (W and θ)
- W controls the time window measured (how far back you count crossings).
- θ controls how many crossings qualify as a “density/singularity episode.”
Guideline:
- Larger W = slower, broader density detection.
- Higher θ = only the most intense churn is labeled as a Density Zone.
Interpretation:
- A Density Zone is not “bullish” or “bearish” by itself.
- It is a condition: repeated equilibrium toggling (high churn / high compression).
- These often precede expansions, but direction is not implied by the zone alone.
Step 3 — Tune the QHO spin flip sensitivity (L and κ)
- L controls regression memory and σ estimation length.
- κ controls how extreme the displacement must be to trigger a spin flip.
Guideline:
- Smaller L = more reactive centerline and σ.
- Larger L = smoother, slower “field” definition.
- κ=3.0 = strong extreme filter.
- κ=2.0 = more frequent flips.
Interpretation:
- Spin flips mark when price exits the “normal” residual field.
- In your model language: a moment of decoherence/expansion that is statistically extreme relative to recent equilibrium.
Step 4 — Read the combined behavior (your key thesis)
A) Density Zone forms (GM churn clusters):
- Market repeatedly crosses equilibrium (GM), compressing into a bounded churn envelope.
- dzHi/dzLo show the envelope range.
B) Expansion occurs:
- Price can release away from the density envelope (up or down).
- If it expands far enough relative to regression equilibrium, a Spin Flip triggers (|Y| > κ).
C) Re-coherence:
- After a spin flip, price often returns toward equilibrium structures:
- toward the regression centerline m_t
- and/or back toward the density envelope (dzHi/dzLo) depending on regime behavior.
- The indicator does not guarantee return, but it highlights the condition where return-to-field is statistically likely in many regimes.
IMPORTANT NOTES / DISCLAIMERS
- This indicator is an analytical overlay. It does not provide financial advice.
- Density Zones are condition states derived from GM crossing frequency; they do not predict direction.
- Spin Flips are statistical excursions based on regression residuals and rolling σ; markets have fat tails and non-stationarity, so σ-based thresholds are contextual, not absolute.
- All parameters (L1, L2, W, θ, L, κ) should be tuned per asset, timeframe, and volatility regime.
PARAMETER SUMMARY
Geometric Mean / Density Zones:
- L1: MA1 length
- L2: MA2 length
- GM_t = sqrt(SMA(L1)*SMA(L2))
- W: crossing-count lookback window
- θ: crossing density threshold
- D_t = Σ crossEvent_{t-i} over W
- isDZ_t = (D_t >= θ)
- dzHi/dzLo track envelope bounds while isDZ is true
QHO / Spin Flips:
- L: regression + residual σ length
- m_t = linreg(close, L, 0)
- r_t = close_t - m_t
- σ_t = stdev(r_t, L)
- Y_t = r_t / σ_t
- spinFlip_t = (|Y_t| > κ)
Visual Controls:
- toggles for GM lines, cross markers, zone shading, bounds, QHO bands
- marker size options for GM crosses and spin flips
ALERTS INCLUDED
- Density Zone START / END
- Spin Flip UP / DOWN
- Cross Above GM / Cross Below GM
SUMMARY
This indicator treats the Geometric Mean as an equilibrium boundary and identifies “Density Zones” when price repeatedly crosses that equilibrium within a rolling window, forming a bounded churn envelope (dzHi/dzLo). It also models a regression-based equilibrium field and triggers “Spin Flips” when price makes statistically extreme σ-excursions from that field. Used together, Density Zones highlight compression/decision regions (equilibrium churn), while Spin Flips highlight extreme expansion states (σ-breaches), allowing the user to visualize how price compresses around equilibrium, releases outward, and often re-stabilizes around equilibrium structures over time.
Fractal Dimension (Katz, Quant Lab)This indicator estimates the Katz Fractal Dimension of the price series over a rolling window.
It computes:
• L = sum of absolute price changes within the window
• d = maximum distance between any point and the first point in the window
• n = window length
Then applies Katz’s formula:
FDI = ln(n) / (ln(n) + ln(d / L))
The resulting Fractal Dimension typically lies between 1.0 and 2.0:
• FDI ≈ 1.0–1.3 → Strong, directional trend (low randomness)
• FDI ≈ 1.3–1.5 → Mixed / transitional behavior
• FDI ≈ 1.5–2.0 → Noisy, choppy, mean-reverting / range market
Luxy VWAP Magic - MTF Projection EngineThis indicator transforms the classic VWAP into a comprehensive trading system. Instead of switching between multiple indicators, you get everything in one place: multi-timeframe analysis, statistical bands, momentum detection, volume profiling, session tracking, and divergence signals.
What Makes This Different
Traditional VWAP indicators show a single line. This tool treats VWAP as a foundation for complete market analysis. The indicator automatically detects your asset type (stocks, crypto, forex, futures) and adjusts its behavior accordingly. Crypto traders get 24/7 session tracking. Stock traders get proper market hours handling. Everyone gets institutional-grade analytics.
Anchor Period Options
The anchor period determines when VWAP resets and recalculates. You have three categories of options:
Time-Based Anchors:
Session - Resets at market open. Best for intraday stock trading where you want fresh VWAP each day.
Day - Resets at midnight UTC. Standard option for most traders.
Week / Month / Quarter / Year - Longer reset periods for swing traders and position traders who want broader context.
Rolling Window Anchors:
Rolling 5D - A sliding 5-day window that never resets. Solves the Monday problem where weekly VWAP equals daily VWAP on first day of week.
Rolling 21D - Approximately one month of trading data in continuous calculation. Excellent for crypto and forex markets that trade 24/7 without clear session breaks.
Event-Based Anchors:
Dividends - Resets on ex-dividend dates. Track institutional cost basis from dividend events.
Splits - Resets on stock split dates. Useful for analyzing post-split trading behavior.
Earnings - Resets on earnings report dates. See where volume-weighted trading occurred since last quarterly report.
Standard Deviation Bands
Three sets of bands surround the main VWAP line:
Band 1 (Aqua) - Plus and minus one standard deviation. Approximately 68% of price action occurs within this range under normal distribution. Touches suggest minor extension.
Band 2 (Fuchsia) - Plus and minus two standard deviations. Only 5% of trading should occur outside this range statistically. Touches here indicate significant overextension and high probability of mean reversion.
Band 3 (Purple) - Plus and minus three standard deviations. Touches are rare (0.3% probability) and represent extreme conditions. Often marks climax moves or panic selling/buying.
Each band can be toggled independently. Most traders show Band 1 by default and add Band 2 and 3 for specific setups or volatile instruments.
Multi-Timeframe VWAP System
The MTF section plots previous period VWAPs as horizontal support and resistance levels:
Daily VWAP - Previous day's final VWAP value. Key intraday reference level.
Weekly VWAP - Previous week's final VWAP. Important for swing traders.
Monthly VWAP - Previous month's final VWAP. Institutional benchmark level.
Quarterly VWAP - Previous quarter's final VWAP. Major support/resistance for position traders.
Previous Day VWAP - Yesterday's closing VWAP specifically, separate from current daily calculation.
The Confluence Zone percentage setting determines how close multiple VWAPs must be to trigger a confluence alert. When two or more timeframe VWAPs converge within this threshold, you get a high-probability support/resistance zone.
Session VWAPs for Global Markets
For forex, crypto, and futures traders who operate in 24/7 markets, the indicator tracks three major global sessions:
Asia Session - UTC 21:00 to 08:00. Gold colored line. Typically lower volatility, range-bound action that sets overnight levels.
London Session - UTC 08:00 to 17:00. Orange colored line. Often determines daily direction with high volume European participation.
New York Session - UTC 13:00 to 22:00. Blue colored line. Highest volume session globally. Sharp directional moves common.
Previous session VWAP values display as horizontal lines when each session closes, acting as intraday support and resistance. The table shows which sessions are currently active with checkmarks.
On-Chart Labels and Signals
The indicator plots several types of labels directly on price action when significant events occur:
Volume Spike Labels
Fire when current bar volume exceeds configurable thresholds relative to both the previous bar and the 20-bar average. Default settings require 300% of previous bar AND 200% of average volume. Green labels indicate bullish candles. Red labels indicate bearish candles. These spikes often mark institutional entry points.
Momentum Shift Labels
Appear when VWAP acceleration changes direction. The Slowing label warns when an active trend loses steam, often preceding reversal. The Accelerating label confirms trend continuation or potential bottom during downtrends. Filters available to show only reversal signals in existing trends.
VWAP Squeeze Labels
Detect when standard deviation bands contract relative to ATR (Average True Range). Low volatility compression often precedes explosive breakout moves. When the squeeze fires (releases), a label appears with directional prediction based on VWAP slope.
Divergence Labels
Mark price/volume divergences using CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) analysis:
Bullish divergence: Price makes lower low, but CVD makes higher low. Hidden accumulation despite price weakness.
Bearish divergence: Price makes higher high, but CVD makes lower high. Hidden distribution despite price strength.
Dynamic VWAP Coloring
The main VWAP line changes color based on its slope direction:
Green - VWAP is rising. Institutional buying pressure. Volume-weighted price increasing.
Red - VWAP is falling. Institutional selling pressure. Volume-weighted price decreasing.
Gray - VWAP is flat. Consolidation or balance between buyers and sellers.
This coloring can be disabled for a static blue line if you prefer cleaner visuals. The VWAP label next to the line shows the current trend direction and delta percentage.
Calculated Projection Cone
One of the most powerful features is the Calculated Projection Cone. Unlike traditional extrapolation methods that simply extend a trend line forward, this system analyzes what actually happened in similar market conditions throughout the chart's history.
How It Works:
The system classifies each bar into one of 27 unique market states:
Z-Score Level - LOW (oversold), MID (fair value), or HIGH (overbought) based on configurable thresholds
Trend Direction - DOWN, FLAT, or UP based on VWAP slope
Volume Profile - LOW (below 80%), NORMAL (80-150%), or HIGH (above 150%) relative volume
When you look at the current bar, the indicator:
1. Identifies the current market state (e.g., LOW Z-Score + UP Trend + HIGH Volume)
2. Searches through all historical bars on the chart that had the same state
3. Calculates what happened in those bars X bars later (where X is your projection horizon)
4. Shows you the probability of up/down and the average move size
Visual Elements:
Probability Cone - Colored green (bullish probability above 55%), red (bearish below 45%), or gold (neutral). The cone width represents the historical range of outcomes (roughly the 20th to 80th percentile).
Center Line - Shows the average expected price based on historical outcomes in similar conditions.
Probability Label - Displays direction probability and average move. Example: "67% UP (+0.8%)" means 67% of similar past cases moved up, averaging 0.8% gain.
Fallback System:
When the exact 27-state match has insufficient historical data:
First fallback: Uses Z-Score plus Trend only (9 broader states, ignoring volume)
Second fallback: Uses Z-Score only (3 states)
When fallback is active, confidence automatically adjusts
Settings:
Projection Horizon - How many bars forward to analyze outcomes (5, 10, 15, or 20 bars, default 10)
Lookback Period - Historical data window in days (30-252, default 60)
Minimum Samples - Cases needed before using fallback (5-30, default 10)
Z-Score Threshold - Bucket boundary for LOW/MID/HIGH classification (1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 sigma)
Cloud Transparency - Adjust visibility (50-95%)
Colors - Customize bullish, bearish, and neutral cone colors
Confidence Levels:
HIGH - 30 or more similar historical cases found
MEDIUM - 15-29 similar cases
LOW - Fewer than 15 cases (more uncertainty)
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
The Calculated Projection is based on past patterns only. It is NOT a price prediction or financial advice. Similar market states in the past do not guarantee similar outcomes in the future. The probability shown is historical frequency, not a guarantee. Always combine with other analysis and never rely solely on projections for trading decisions.
Alert Conditions
The indicator includes over 20 pre-built alert conditions:
Price vs VWAP:
Price crosses above VWAP
Price crosses below VWAP
Band Touches:
Price touches plus or minus one sigma band
Price touches plus or minus two sigma band (extreme)
Price touches plus or minus three sigma band (very extreme)
Z-Score Extremes:
Z-Score crosses above plus two (overbought extreme)
Z-Score crosses below minus two (oversold extreme)
Momentum and Trend:
Momentum slowing
Momentum accelerating
Trend turns bullish/bearish/neutral
Volume:
Volume spike detected
CVD Direction:
Buyers take control
Sellers take control
High Probability Signals:
Bullish reversal signal (oversold plus accelerating momentum)
Bearish reversal signal (overbought plus slowing momentum)
MTF and Special:
MTF confluence zone entry
VWAP squeeze fired
Bullish/Bearish divergence detected
Any significant signal (catch-all)
All signals use confirmed bar data to prevent false alerts from incomplete candles.
Settings Overview
Settings are organized into logical groups:
VWAP Settings
Anchor Period selection
Show/Hide VWAP line
Dynamic coloring toggle
VWAP label visibility
Bands Visibility
Toggle each of three bands independently
Info Table
Show/Hide table
Table position (9 options)
Text size
Volume spike label settings with adjustable thresholds
Momentum label settings with filters
Signal labels limited to 5 most recent (auto-managed)
Probability engine lookback period
Multi-Timeframe VWAP
Enable/Disable MTF system
Show MTF in table
Show MTF lines on chart
Individual timeframe toggles
Confluence zone threshold
Squeeze detection toggle
Session VWAPs
Enable/Disable session tracking
Apply to all assets option
Show session labels
Divergence Detection
Enable/Disable divergence
Pivot lookback period
Show divergence labels
Calculated Projection
Enable/Disable projection cone
Projection horizon (5, 10, 15, or 20 bars)
Lookback period in days (30-252)
Minimum samples threshold
Z-Score classification threshold (1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 sigma)
Cloud transparency adjustment
Bullish, bearish, and neutral colors
The Info Table - Your Trading Dashboard
The right side of your chart displays a compact table with up to twelve metrics.
Row-by-Row Breakdown:
Asset and Period - Shows what the indicator detected (US Stock, Crypto, Forex, etc.) and your selected anchor period. The detection happens automatically based on exchange data, so VWAP resets and calculations match your actual trading instrument.
Delta Percentage - How far current price sits from VWAP, expressed as a percentage. Positive means price trades above fair value. Negative means below. Large delta values (beyond 1-2%) often precede mean reversion moves. Day traders watch this for overextension.
Z-Score - Statistical deviation from VWAP measured in standard deviations. Unlike raw delta, Z-Score accounts for volatility. A 2% move in a volatile biotech stock differs from 2% in a stable utility. Z-Score normalizes this. Values beyond plus or minus two sigma occur only 5% of the time statistically.
Trend Direction - Whether VWAP itself is rising, falling, or flat. Rising VWAP means the volume-weighted average price is increasing, which indicates institutional accumulation. Falling VWAP suggests distribution. This differs from price trend since it weights by volume.
Momentum State - Is the trend accelerating or slowing down? This measures the rate of change in VWAP slope. When an uptrend shows slowing momentum, it often precedes reversal. Accelerating momentum in a downtrend can signal capitulation and potential bottom.
Relative Volume - Current bar volume compared to the 20-bar average, shown as percentage. Values above 150% indicate above-average activity. Spikes above 200-300% often mark institutional involvement. Low volume (below 80%) warns of potential fake moves.
MTF Bias - Four checkmarks or X marks showing whether price sits above or below Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly VWAP. Four checkmarks means strong bullish alignment across all timeframes. Four X marks indicates bearish alignment. Mixed readings suggest consolidation or transition.
Band Probabilities - Historical statistics showing how often price touched each standard deviation band over your lookback period. This helps you understand if mean reversion or trend following works better for your specific instrument.
Session Status - Which global trading sessions are currently active (Asia, London, New York). Shows checkmarks for active sessions. Important for forex and crypto traders who need to know when major liquidity windows open and close.
Divergence State - Whether the indicator detects bullish or bearish divergence between price and cumulative volume delta. Bullish divergence occurs when price makes lower lows but buying pressure (CVD) makes higher lows, suggesting hidden accumulation.
Confidence Score - A weighted composite of all factors displayed as a progress bar and percentage. Combines MTF alignment, Z-Score, trend direction, volume delta, momentum, and relative volume into a single 0-100 score. Higher scores indicate stronger conviction setups.
Calculated Projection - When the Projection Cone is enabled, shows the historical probability of price direction and expected move. For example: "▲ 67% (+0.8%)" means in similar market states historically, price moved up 67% of the time with an average gain of 0.8%. The system analyzes 27 unique market states based on Z-Score, Trend, and Volume conditions.
Recommended Use Cases
Day Trading Stocks:
Use Session anchor with Band 1 visible. Watch for price returning to VWAP after morning move. Volume spikes near VWAP often mark institutional accumulation zones.
Swing Trading:
Use Weekly or Rolling 21D anchor. Enable MTF lines for Daily and Weekly levels. Trade pullbacks to these levels in direction of MTF bias.
Crypto and Forex:
Enable Session VWAPs. Use Rolling anchors to avoid artificial resets. Monitor session transitions for breakout opportunities.
Mean Reversion:
Focus on Z-Score reaching plus or minus two. Add Band 2 visibility. Combine with slowing momentum for highest probability reversals.
Trend Following:
Watch MTF bias alignment. Four checkmarks plus accelerating momentum plus high volume confirms trend continuation setups.
Projection Planning:
Enable the Calculated Projection to see what happened historically in similar market conditions. Use 5-10 bars for intraday setups, 15-20 bars for swing trade planning. Focus on high probability readings (above 60%) with HIGH confidence (30 or more samples). The cone shows the probable range of outcomes based on actual historical data. Combine with other factors like MTF alignment and volume for higher conviction setups.
Important Notes
The indicator does not repaint. MTF values use previous period's confirmed data.
Rolling VWAP works best on 15-minute timeframes and above due to bar lookback requirements.
Session VWAPs apply to global markets by default (forex, crypto, futures). Enable the all-assets option for stocks if desired.
Volume data for forex represents tick volume, not actual traded volume.
All alert conditions fire only on confirmed (closed) bars to prevent false signals.
The Calculated Projection updates each bar as market state changes. This is expected behavior. The projection shows probabilities based on similar past conditions, not a fixed prediction.
Q AND A
Q: Does this indicator repaint?
A: No. The main VWAP calculation uses standard TradingView VWAP methodology. Multi-timeframe values use previous period's confirmed data with appropriate lookahead settings. All alert signals require bar confirmation.
Q: Why does my Rolling VWAP look different on 1-minute versus 15-minute charts?
A: Rolling VWAP calculates across a fixed number of trading days. On very short timeframes, the bar lookback may hit TradingView limits. For best Rolling VWAP accuracy, use 15-minute or higher timeframes.
Q: Can I use this on any instrument?
A: Yes. The indicator automatically detects asset type and adjusts behavior. Stocks use standard market hours. Crypto uses 24/7 calculations. Forex uses tick volume. Everything adapts automatically.
Q: What does the Confidence Score actually measure?
A: The score combines six weighted factors: MTF alignment (25%), Z-Score position (20%), Trend direction (20%), CVD pressure (15%), Momentum state (10%), and Relative volume (10%). Higher scores indicate more factors aligned in one direction.
Q: Why are Session VWAPs not showing on my stock chart?
A: Session VWAPs apply to 24-hour markets by default (forex, crypto, futures). For stocks, enable the Use for All Assets option in Session VWAP settings.
Q: The Divergence labels appear delayed. Is this a bug?
A: Divergence detection requires pivot confirmation, which needs bars on both sides of the pivot point. The label appears at the actual pivot location (several bars back) once confirmed. This is intentional and prevents false signals.
Q: Can I change the band colors?
A: Yes. Each of the three bands has its own color input setting. You can customize Band 1, Band 2, and Band 3 colors to match your preferences. The defaults are Aqua, Fuchsia, and Purple. The main VWAP line color adapts dynamically based on slope direction or can be set to static blue.
Q: How do I set up alerts?
A: Right-click on the chart, select Add Alert, choose this indicator, and select your desired condition from the dropdown. All conditions include descriptive alert messages with relevant data.
Q: What is the Probability Engine lookback period?
A: This setting determines how many trading days the indicator analyzes to calculate band touch rates and mean reversion statistics. Default is 60 days (approximately 3 months). Longer periods provide more stable statistics but may miss recent behavior changes.
Q: Why do I see fewer labels than expected?
A: Signal labels (Volume, Momentum, Squeeze, Divergence) are limited to 5 most recent labels on the chart to keep it clean. When a new label appears, the oldest one is automatically removed. Additionally, momentum labels have several filters: check the slope multiplier setting (higher values require stronger trends) and the Only Reversal Signals option (when enabled, labels only appear for potential reversals, not trend confirmations).
Q: What is the Calculated Projection and how accurate is it?
A: The Calculated Projection analyzes what happened in past market conditions similar to the current state. It classifies each bar by Z-Score level, Trend direction, and Volume profile (27 unique states), then shows the historical probability of up vs down and the average move size. It is NOT a price prediction or guarantee. The probability shown is how often similar conditions led to up/down moves historically, not a future guarantee. Always use it as one input among many.
Q: Why does the Projection probability change?
A: The projection updates on each bar as market state changes. If Z-Score moves from LOW to MID, or trend shifts from UP to FLAT, the system looks up a different historical category. This is expected behavior. The projection shows what happened in similar past conditions to the current bar's state.
Q: The Projection shows LOW confidence. What does that mean?
A: Confidence levels indicate sample size: HIGH means 30 or more historical cases found, MEDIUM means 15-29 cases, LOW means fewer than 15 cases. When sample size is low, the system uses a fallback: first aggregating by Z-Score plus Trend only (ignoring volume), then by Z-Score only. LOW confidence means less statistical reliability, so weight other factors more heavily in your decision.
Q: Why does the cone sometimes show 50/50 probability?
A: A 50/50 reading means that in similar past market states, price moved up roughly half the time and down half the time. This indicates a neutral or balanced condition where historical patterns provide no directional edge. Consider waiting for a higher probability setup or using other analysis methods.
CREDITS AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Methodology Foundation:
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) - Standard institutional benchmark calculation, widely used since the 1980s for algorithmic execution and fair value assessment
Standard Deviation Bands - Statistical volatility measurement applying normal distribution principles to price deviation from mean
Z-Score Analysis - Classic statistical normalization technique for comparing values across different volatility regimes
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) - Order flow analysis concept measuring aggressive buying versus selling pressure
Concept Integration:
Mean reversion probability engine - Custom historical statistics tracking for band touch rates
Momentum acceleration detection - Second derivative analysis of VWAP slope changes
VWAP Squeeze - Volatility compression concept adapted from TTM Squeeze methodology applied to VWAP bands versus ATR
Confidence scoring system - Weighted composite scoring combining multiple technical factors
Calculated Projection Cone - Probability-based projection using 27-state market classification (Z-Score, Trend, Volume) with historical outcome analysis and weighted fallback system
All calculations use standard public domain formulas and TradingView built-in functions. No proprietary third-party code was used.
For questions, feedback, or feature requests, please comment below or send a private message.
Happy Trading!
Bifurcation Early WarningBifurcation Early Warning (BEW) — Chaos Theory Regime Detection
OVERVIEW
The Bifurcation Early Warning indicator applies principles from chaos theory and complex systems research to detect when markets are approaching critical transition points — moments where the current regime is likely to break down and shift to a new state.
Unlike momentum or trend indicators that tell you what is happening, BEW tells you when something is about to change. It provides early warning of regime shifts before they occur, giving traders time to prepare for increased volatility or trend reversals.
THE SCIENCE BEHIND IT
In complex systems (weather, ecosystems, financial markets), major transitions don't happen randomly. Research has identified three universal warning signals that precede critical transitions:
1. Critical Slowing Down
As a system approaches a tipping point, it becomes "sluggish" — small perturbations take longer to decay. In markets, this manifests as rising autocorrelation in returns.
2. Variance Amplification
Short-term volatility begins expanding relative to longer-term baselines as the system destabilizes.
3. Flickering
The system oscillates between two potential states before committing to one — visible as increased crossing of mean levels.
BEW combines all three signals into a single composite score.
COMPONENTS
AR(1) Coefficient — Critical Slowing Down (Blue)
Measures lag-1 autocorrelation of returns over a rolling window.
• Rising toward 1.0: Market becoming "sticky," slow to mean-revert — transition approaching
• Low values (<0.3): Normal mean-reverting behavior, stable regime
Variance Ratio (Purple)
Compares short-term variance to long-term variance.
• Above 1.5: Short-term volatility expanding — energy building before a move
• Near 1.0: Volatility stable, no unusual pressure
Flicker Count (Yellow/Teal)
Counts state changes (crossings of the dynamic mean) within the lookback period.
• High count: Market oscillating between states — indecision before commitment
• Low count: Price firmly in one regime
INTERPRETING THE BEW SCORE
0–50 (STABLE): Normal market conditions. Existing strategies should perform as expected.
50–70 (WARNING): Elevated instability detected. Consider reducing exposure or tightening risk parameters.
70–85 (DANGER): High probability of regime change. Avoid initiating new positions; widen stops on existing ones.
85+ (CRITICAL): Bifurcation likely imminent or in progress. Expect large, potentially unpredictable moves.
HOW TO USE
As a Regime Filter
• BEW < 50: Normal trading conditions — apply your standard strategies
• BEW > 60: Elevated caution — reduce position sizes, avoid mean-reversion plays
• BEW > 80: High alert — consider staying flat or hedging existing positions
As a Preparation Signal
BEW tells you when to pay attention, not which direction. When readings elevate:
• Watch for confirmation from volume, order flow, or other directional indicators
• Prepare for breakout scenarios in either direction
• Adjust take-profit and stop-loss distances for larger moves
For Volatility Adjustment
High BEW periods correlate with larger candles. Use this to:
• Widen stops during elevated readings
• Adjust position sizing inversely to BEW score
• Set more ambitious profit targets when entering during high-BEW breakouts
Divergence Analysis
• Price making new highs/lows while BEW stays low: Trend likely to continue smoothly
• Price consolidating while BEW rises: Breakout incoming — direction uncertain but move will be significant
SETTINGS GUIDE
Core Settings
• Lookback Period: General reference period (default: 50)
• Source: Price source for calculations (default: close)
Critical Slowing Down (AR1)
• AR(1) Calculation Period: Bars used for autocorrelation (default: 100). Higher = smoother, slower.
• AR(1) Warning Threshold: Level at which AR(1) is considered elevated (default: 0.85)
Variance Growth
• Variance Short Period: Fast variance window (default: 20)
• Variance Long Period: Slow variance window (default: 100)
• Variance Ratio Threshold: Level for maximum score contribution (default: 1.5)
Regime Flickering
• Flicker Detection Period: Window for counting state changes (default: 20)
• Flicker Bandwidth: ATR multiplier for state detection — lower = more sensitive (default: 0.5)
• Flicker Count Threshold: Number of crossings for maximum score (default: 4)
TIMEFRAME RECOMMENDATIONS
• 5m–15m: Use shorter periods (AR: 30–50, Var: 10/50). Expect more noise.
• 1H: Balanced performance with default or slightly extended settings (AR: 100, Var: 20/100).
• 4H–Daily: Extend periods further (AR: 100–150, Var: 30/150). Cleaner signals, less frequent.
ALERTS
Three alert conditions are included:
• BEW Warning: Score crosses above 50
• BEW Danger: Score crosses above 70
• BEW Critical: Score crosses above 85
LIMITATIONS
• No directional bias: BEW detects instability, not direction. Combine with trend or momentum indicators.
• Not a timing tool: Elevated readings may persist for several bars before the actual move.
• Parameter sensitive: Optimal settings vary by asset and timeframe. Backtest before live use.
• Leading indicator trade-off: Early warning means some false positives are inevitable.
CREDITS
Inspired by research on early warning signals in complex systems:
• Dakos et al. (2012) — "Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions"
DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own analysis and risk management. Use at your own risk.
Echo Chamber [theUltimator5]The Echo Chamber - When history repeats, maybe you should listen.
Ever had that eerie feeling you've seen this exact price action before? The Echo Chamber doesn't just give you déjà vu—it mathematically proves it, scales it, and projects what happened next.
📖 WHAT IT DOES
The Echo Chamber is an advanced pattern recognition tool that scans your chart's history to find segments that closely match your current price action. But here's where it gets interesting: it doesn't just find similar patterns - It expands and contracts the time window to create a uniquely scaled fractal. Patterns don't always follow the same timeframe, but they do follow similar patterns.
Using a custom correlation analysis algorithm combined with flexible time-scaling, this indicator:
Finds historical price segments that mirror your current market structure
Scales and overlays them perfectly onto your current chart
Projects forward what happened AFTER that historical match
Gives you a visual "echo" from the past with a glimpse into potential futures
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HOW TO USE IT
This indicator starts off in manual mode, which means that YOU, the user, can select the point in time that you want to project from. Simply click on a point in time to set the starting value.
Once you select your point in time, the indicator will automatically plot the chosen historical chart pattern and correlation over the current chart and project the price forwards based on how the chart looked in the past. If you want to change the point in time, you can update it from the settings, or drag the point on the chart over to a new position.
You can manually select any point in time, and the chart will quickly update with the new pattern. A correlation will be shown in a table alongside the date/timestamp of the selected point in time.
You can switch to auto mode, which will automatically search out the best-fit pattern over a defined lookback range and plot the past/future projection for you without having to manually select a point in time at all. It simply finds the best fit for you.
You can change the scale factor by adjusting multiplication and division variables to find time-scaled fractal patterns.
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🎯 KEY FEATURES
Two Operating Modes:
🔧 MANUAL MODE - Select any historical point and see how it correlates with current price action in real-time. Perfect for:
• Analyzing specific past events (crashes, rallies, consolidations)
• Testing historical patterns against current conditions
• Educational analysis of market structure repetition
🤖 AUTO MODE - It automatically scans through your lookback period to find the single best-correlated historical match. Ideal for:
• Quick pattern discovery
• Systematic trading approach
• Unbiased pattern recognition
Time Warp Technology:
The time warp feature expands and compresses the correlation window to provide a custom fractal so you can analyze windows of time that don't necessarily match the current chart.
💡 *Example: Multiplier=3, Divisor=2 gives you a 1.5x time stretch—perfect for finding patterns that played out 50% slower than current price action.*
Drawing Modes:
Scale Only : Pure vertical scaling—matches price range while maintaining temporal alignment at bar 0
Rotate & Scale : Advanced geometric transformation that anchors both the start AND end points, creating a rotated fit that matches your current segment's slope and range
Visual Components:
🟠 Orange Overlay : The historical match, perfectly scaled to your current price action
🟣 Purple Projection : What happened NEXT after that historical pattern (dotted line into the future)
📦 Highlight Boxes : Shows you exactly where in history these patterns came from
📊 Live Correlation Table : Real-time correlation coefficient with color-coded strength indicator
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⚙️ PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
Correlation Window Length (20) : How many bars to match. Smaller = more precise matches but noisier. Larger = broader patterns but fewer matches.
Note: if this value is too high in auto mode, the script may time out from computational overload.
Multiplication Factor : Historical time multiplier. 2 = sample every 2nd bar from history. Higher values find slower historical patterns.
Division Factor : Historical time divisor applied after multiplication. Final sample rate = (Length × Factor) ÷ Divisor, rounded down.
Lookback Range : How far back to search for patterns. More history = better chance of finding matches but slower performance.
Note: if this value is too high in auto mode, the script may time out from computational overload.
Future Projection Length : How many bars forward to project from the historical match. Your crystal ball's focal length.
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💼 TRADING APPLICATIONS
Trend Continuation/Reversal :
If the purple projection continues the current trend, that's your historical confirmation. If it reverses, you've found a potential turning point that's happened before under similar conditions.
Support/Resistance Validation :
Does the projection respect your S/R levels? History suggests those levels matter. Does it break through? You've found historical precedent for a breakout.
Time-Based Exits :
The projection shows not just WHERE price might go, but WHEN. Use it to anticipate timing of moves.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis :
Use time compression to overlay higher timeframe patterns onto lower timeframes. See daily patterns on hourly charts, weekly on daily, etc.
Pattern Education :
In Manual Mode, study how specific historical events correlate with current conditions. Build your pattern recognition library.
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📊 CORRELATION TABLE
The table shows your correlation coefficient as a percentage:
80-100%: Extremely strong correlation—history is practically repeating
60-80%: Strong correlation—significant similarity
40-60%: Moderate correlation—some structural similarity
20-40%: Weak correlation—limited similarity
0-20%: Very weak correlation—essentially random match
-20-40%: Weak inverse correlation
-40-60%: Moderate inverse correlation
-60-80%: Strong inverse correlation
-80-100%: Extremely strong inverse correlation—history is practically inverting
**Important**: The correlation measures SHAPE similarity, not price level. An 85% correlation means the price movements follow a very similar pattern, regardless of whether prices are higher or lower.
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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
- Past performance does NOT guarantee future results (but it sure is interesting to study)
- High correlation doesn't mean causation—markets are complex adaptive systems
- Use this as ONE tool in your analytical toolkit, not a standalone trading system
- The projection is what HAPPENED after a similar pattern in the past, not a prediction
- Always use proper risk management regardless of what the Echo Chamber suggests
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🎓 PRO TIPS
1. Start with Auto Mode to find high-correlation matches, then switch to Manual Mode to study why that period was similar
2. Experiment with time warping on different timeframes—a 2x factor on a daily chart lets you see weekly patterns
3. Watch for correlation decay —if correlation drops sharply after the match, current conditions are diverging from history
4. Combine with volume —check if volume patterns also match
5. Use "Rotate & Scale" mode when the current trend angle differs from the historical match
6. Increase lookback range to 500-1000+ on daily/weekly charts for finding rare historical parallels
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🔧 TECHNICAL NOTES
- Uses Pearson correlation coefficient for pattern matching
- Implements range-based scaling to normalize different price levels
- Rotation mode uses linear interpolation for geometric transformation
- All calculations are performed on close prices
- Boxes highlight actual historical bar ranges (high/low)
- Maximum of 500 lines and 500 boxes for performance optimization
Static K-means Clustering | InvestorUnknownStatic K-Means Clustering is a machine-learning-driven market regime classifier designed for traders who want a data-driven structure instead of subjective indicators or manually drawn zones.
This script performs offline (static) K-means training on your chosen historical window. Using four engineered features:
RSI (Momentum)
CCI (Price deviation / Mean reversion)
CMF (Money flow / Strength)
MACD Histogram (Trend acceleration)
It groups past market conditions into K distinct clusters (regimes). After training, every new bar is assigned to the nearest cluster via Euclidean distance in 4-dimensional standardized feature space.
This allows you to create models like:
Regime-based long/short filters
Volatility phase detectors
Trend vs. chop separation
Mean-reversion vs. breakout classification
Volume-enhanced money-flow regime shifts
Full machine-learning trading systems based solely on regimes
Note:
This script is not a universal ML strategy out of the box.
The user must engineer the feature set to match their trading style and target market.
K-means is a tool, not a ready made system, this script provides the framework.
Core Idea
K-means clustering takes raw, unlabeled market observations and attempts to discover structure by grouping similar bars together.
// STEP 1 — DATA POINTS ON A COORDINATE PLANE
// We start with raw, unlabeled data scattered in 2D space (x/y).
// At this point, nothing is grouped—these are just observations.
// K-means will try to discover structure by grouping nearby points.
//
// y ↑
// |
// 12 | •
// | •
// 10 | •
// | •
// 8 | • •
// |
// 6 | •
// |
// 4 | •
// |
// 2 |______________________________________________→ x
// 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
//
//
//
// STEP 2 — RANDOMLY PLACE INITIAL CENTROIDS
// The algorithm begins by placing K centroids at random positions.
// These centroids act as the temporary “representatives” of clusters.
// Their starting positions heavily influence the first assignment step.
//
// y ↑
// |
// 12 | •
// | •
// 10 | • C2 ×
// | •
// 8 | • •
// |
// 6 | C1 × •
// |
// 4 | •
// |
// 2 |______________________________________________→ x
// 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
//
//
//
// STEP 3 — ASSIGN POINTS TO NEAREST CENTROID
// Each point is compared to all centroids.
// Using simple Euclidean distance, each point joins the cluster
// of the centroid it is closest to.
// This creates a temporary grouping of the data.
//
// (Coloring concept shown using labels)
//
// - Points closer to C1 → Cluster 1
// - Points closer to C2 → Cluster 2
//
// y ↑
// |
// 12 | 2
// | 1
// 10 | 1 C2 ×
// | 2
// 8 | 1 2
// |
// 6 | C1 × 2
// |
// 4 | 1
// |
// 2 |______________________________________________→ x
// 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
//
// (1 = assigned to Cluster 1, 2 = assigned to Cluster 2)
// At this stage, clusters are formed purely by distance.
Your chosen historical window becomes the static training dataset , and after fitting, the centroids never change again.
This makes the model:
Predictable
Repeatable
Consistent across backtests
Fast for live use (no recalculation of centroids every bar)
Static Training Window
You select a period with:
Training Start
Training End
Only bars inside this range are used to fit the K-means model. This window defines:
the market regime examples
the statistical distributions (means/std) for each feature
how the centroids will be positioned post-trainin
Bars before training = fully transparent
Training bars = gray
Post-training bars = full colored regimes
Feature Engineering (4D Input Vector)
Every bar during training becomes a 4-dimensional point:
This combination balances: momentum, volatility, mean-reversion, trend acceleration giving the algorithm a richer "market fingerprint" per bar.
Standardization
To prevent any feature from dominating due to scale differences (e.g., CMF near zero vs CCI ±200), all features are standardized:
standardize(value, mean, std) =>
(value - mean) / std
Centroid Initialization
Centroids start at diverse coordinates using various curves:
linear
sinusoidal
sign-preserving quadratic
tanh compression
init_centroids() =>
// Spread centroids across using different shapes per feature
for c = 0 to k_clusters - 1
frac = k_clusters == 1 ? 0.0 : c / (k_clusters - 1.0) // 0 → 1
v = frac * 2 - 1 // -1 → +1
array.set(cent_rsi, c, v) // linear
array.set(cent_cci, c, math.sin(v)) // sinusoidal
array.set(cent_cmf, c, v * v * (v < 0 ? -1 : 1)) // quadratic sign-preserving
array.set(cent_mac, c, tanh(v)) // compressed
This makes initial cluster spread “random” even though true randomness is hardly achieved in pinescript.
K-Means Iterative Refinement
The algorithm repeats these steps:
(A) Assignment Step, Each bar is assigned to the nearest centroid via Euclidean distance in 4D:
distance = sqrt(dx² + dy² + dz² + dw²)
(B) Update Step, Centroids update to the mean of points assigned to them. This repeats iterations times (configurable).
LIVE REGIME CLASSIFICATION
After training, each new bar is:
Standardized using the training mean/std
Compared to all centroids
Assigned to the nearest cluster
Bar color updates based on cluster
No re-training occurs. This ensures:
No lookahead bias
Clean historical testing
Stable regimes over time
CLUSTER BEHAVIOR & TRADING LOGIC
Clusters (0, 1, 2, 3…) hold no inherent meaning. The user defines what each cluster does.
Example of custom actions:
Cluster 0 → Cash
Cluster 1 → Long
Cluster 2 → Short
Cluster 3+ → Cash (noise regime)
This flexibility means:
One trader might have cluster 0 as consolidation.
Another might repurpose it as a breakout-loading zone.
A third might ignore 3 clusters entirely.
Example on ETHUSD
Important Note:
Any change of parameters or chart timeframe or ticker can cause the “order” of clusters to change
The script does NOT assume any cluster equals any actionable bias, user decides.
PERFORMANCE METRICS & ROC TABLE
The indicator computes average 1-bar ROC for each cluster in:
Training set
Test (live) set
This helps measure:
Cluster profitability consistency
Regime forward predictability
Whether a regime is noise, trend, or reversion-biased
EQUITY SIMULATION & FEES
Designed for close-to-close realistic backtesting.
Position = cluster of previous bar
Fees applied only on regime switches. Meaning:
Staying long → no fee
Switching long→short → fee applied
Switching any→cash → fee applied
Fee input is percentage, but script already converts internally.
Disclaimers
⚠️ This indicator uses machine-learning but does not predict the future. It classifies similarity to past regimes, nothing more.
⚠️ Backtest results are not indicative of future performance.
⚠️ Clusters have no inherent “bullish” or “bearish” meaning. You must interpret them based on your testing and your own feature engineering.
Realtime Squeeze Box [CHE] Realtime Squeeze Box — Detects lowvolatility consolidation periods and draws trimmed price range boxes in realtime to highlight potential breakout setups without clutter from outliers.
Summary
This indicator identifies "squeeze" phases where recent price volatility falls below a dynamic baseline threshold, signaling potential energy buildup for directional moves. By requiring a minimum number of consecutive bars in squeeze, it reduces noise from fleeting dips, making signals more reliable than simple threshold crosses. The core innovation is realtime box visualization: during active squeezes, it builds and updates a box capturing the price range while ignoring extreme values via quantile trimming, providing a cleaner view of consolidation bounds. This differs from static volatility bands by focusing on trimmed ranges and suppressing overlapping boxes, which helps traders spot genuine setups amid choppy markets. Overall, it aids in anticipating breakouts by combining volatility filtering with visual containment of price action.
Motivation: Why this design?
Traders often face whipsaws during brief volatility lulls that mimic true consolidations, leading to premature entries, or miss setups because standard volatility measures lag in adapting to changing market regimes. This design addresses that by using a hold requirement on consecutive lowvolatility bars to denoise signals, ensuring only sustained squeezes trigger visuals. The core idea—comparing rolling standard deviation to a smoothed baseline—creates a responsive yet stable filter for lowenergy periods, while the trimmed box approach isolates the core price cluster, making it easier to gauge breakout potential without distortion from spikes.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
Reference baseline: Traditional squeeze indicators like the Bollinger Band Squeeze or TTM Squeeze rely on fixed multiples of bands or momentum oscillators crossing zero, which can fire on isolated bars or ignore range compression nuances.
Architecture differences:
Realtime box construction that updates barbybar during squeezes, using arrays to track and trim price values.
Quantilebased outlier rejection to define box bounds, focusing on the bulk of prices rather than full range.
Overlap suppression logic that skips redundant boxes if the new range intersects heavily with the prior one.
Hold counter for consecutive bar validation, adding persistence before signaling.
Practical effect: Charts show fewer, more defined orange boxes encapsulating tight price action, with a horizontal line extension marking the midpoint postsqueeze—visibly reducing clutter in sideways markets and highlighting "coiled" ranges that standard plots might blur with full highs/lows. This matters for quicker visual scanning of multitimeframe setups, as boxes selflimit to recent history and avoid piling up.
How it works (technical)
The indicator starts by computing a rolling average and standard deviation over a userdefined length on the chosen source price series. This deviation measure is then smoothed into a baseline using either a simple or exponential average over a longer window, serving as a reference for normal volatility. A squeeze triggers when the current deviation dips below this baseline scaled by a multiplier less than one, but only after a minimum number of consecutive bars confirm it, which resets the counter on breaks.
Upon squeeze start, it clears a buffer and begins collecting source prices barbybar, limited to the first few bars to keep computation light. For visualization, if enabled, it sorts the buffer and finds a quantile threshold, then identifies the minimum value at or below that threshold to set upper and lower box bounds—effectively clamping the range to exclude tails above the quantile. The box draws from the start bar to the current one, updating its right edge and levels dynamically; if the new bounds overlap significantly with the last completed box, it suppresses drawing to avoid redundancy.
Once the hold limit or squeeze ends, the box freezes: its final bounds become the last reference, a midpoint line extends rightward from the end, and a tiny circle label marks the point. Buffers and states reset on new squeezes, with historical boxes and lines capped to prevent overload. All logic runs on every bar but uses confirmed historical data for calculations, with realtime updates only affecting the active box's position—no future peeking occurs. Initialization seeds with null values, building states progressively from the first bars.
Parameter Guide
Source: Selects the price series (e.g., close, hl2) for deviation and box building; influences sensitivity to wicks or bodies. Default: close. Tradeoffs/Tips: Use hl2 for balanced range view in volatile assets; stick to close for pure directional focus—test on your timeframe to avoid oversmoothing trends.
Length (Mean/SD): Sets window for average and deviation calculation; shorter values make detection quicker but noisier. Default: 20. Tradeoffs/Tips: Increase to 30+ for stability in higher timeframes, reducing false starts; below 10 risks overreacting to singlebar noise.
Baseline Length: Defines smoothing window for the deviation baseline; longer periods create a steadier reference, filtering regime shifts. Default: 50. Tradeoffs/Tips: Pair with Length at 1:2 ratio for calm markets; shorten to 30 if baselines lag during fast volatility drops, but watch for added whips.
Squeeze Multiplier (<1.0): Scales the baseline downward to set the squeeze threshold; lower values tighten criteria for rarer, stronger signals. Default: 0.8. Tradeoffs/Tips: Tighten to 0.6 for highvol assets like crypto to cut noise; loosen to 0.9 in forex for more frequent but shallower setups—balances hit rate vs. depth.
Baseline via EMA (instead of SMA): Switches baseline smoothing to exponential for faster adaptation to recent changes vs. equalweighted simple average. Default: false. Tradeoffs/Tips: Enable in trending markets for quicker baseline drops; disable for uniform history weighting in rangebound conditions to avoid overreacting.
SD: Sample (len1) instead of Population (len): Adjusts deviation formula to divide by length minus one for smallsample bias correction, slightly inflating values. Default: false. Tradeoffs/Tips: Use sample in short windows (<20) for more conservative thresholds; population suits long looks where bias is negligible, keeping signals tighter.
Min. Hold Bars in Squeeze: Requires this many consecutive squeeze bars before confirming; higher denoise but may clip early setups. Default: 1. Tradeoffs/Tips: Bump to 35 for intraday to filter ticks; keep at 1 for swings where quick consolidations matter—trades off timeliness for reliability.
Debug: Plot SD & Threshold: Toggles lines showing raw deviation and threshold for visual backtesting of squeeze logic. Default: false. Tradeoffs/Tips: Enable during tuning to eyeball crossovers; disable live to declutter—great for verifying multiplier impact without alerts.
Tint Bars when Squeeze Active: Overlays semitransparent color on bars during open box phases for quick squeeze spotting. Default: false. Tradeoffs/Tips: Pair with low opacity for subtlety; turn off if using boxes alone, as tint can obscure candlesticks in dense charts.
Tint Opacity (0..100): Controls background tint strength during active squeezes; higher values darken for emphasis. Default: 85. Tradeoffs/Tips: Dial to 60 for light touch; max at 100 risks hiding price action—adjust per chart theme for visibility.
Stored Price (during Squeeze): Price series captured in the buffer for box bounds; defaults to source but allows customization. Default: close. Tradeoffs/Tips: Switch to high/low for wider boxes in gappy markets; keep close for midline focus—impacts trim effectiveness on outliers.
Quantile q (0..1): Fraction of sorted prices below which tails are cut; higher q keeps more data but risks including spikes. Default: 0.718. Tradeoffs/Tips: Lower to 0.5 for aggressive trim in noisy assets; raise to 0.8 for fuller ranges—tune via debug to match your consolidation depth.
Box Fill Color: Sets interior shade of squeeze boxes; semitransparent for layering. Default: orange (80% trans.). Tradeoffs/Tips: Soften with more transparency in multiindicator setups; bold for standalone use—ensures boxes pop without overwhelming.
Box Border Color: Defines outline hue and solidity for box edges. Default: orange (0% trans.). Tradeoffs/Tips: Match fill for cohesion or contrast for edges; thin width keeps it clean—helps delineate bounds in zoomed views.
Keep Last N Boxes: Limits historical boxes/lines/labels to this count, deleting oldest for performance. Default: 10. Tradeoffs/Tips: Increase to 50 for weekly reviews; set to 0 for unlimited (risks lag)—balances history vs. speed on long charts.
Draw Box in Realtime (build/update): Enables live extension of boxes during squeezes vs. waiting for end. Default: true. Tradeoffs/Tips: Disable for confirmedonly views to mimic backtests; enable for proactive trading—adds minor repaint on live bars.
Box: Max First N Bars: Caps buffer collection to initial squeeze bars, freezing after for efficiency. Default: 15. Tradeoffs/Tips: Shorten to 510 for fast intraday; extend to 20 in dailies—prevents bloated arrays but may truncate long squeezes.
Reading & Interpretation
Squeeze phases appear as orange boxes encapsulating the trimmed price cluster during lowvolatility holds—narrow boxes signal tight consolidations, while wider ones indicate looser ranges within the threshold. The box's top and bottom represent the quantilecapped high and low of collected prices, with the interior fill shading the containment zone; ignore extremes outside for "true" bounds. Postsqueeze, a solid horizontal line extends right from the box's midpoint, acting as a reference level for potential breakout tests—drifting prices toward or away from it can hint at building momentum. Tiny orange circles at the line's start mark completion points for easy scanning. Debug lines (if on) show deviation hugging or crossing the threshold, confirming hold logic; a persistent hug below suggests prolonged calm, while spikes above reset counters.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
Trend following: Enter long on squeezeend close above the box top (or midpoint line) confirmed by higher high in structure; filter with rising 50period average to avoid countertrend traps. Use boxes as support/resistance proxies—short below bottom in downtrends.
Exits/Stops: Trail stops to the box midpoint during postsqueeze runs for conservative holds; go aggressive by exiting on retest of opposite box side. If debug shows repeated threshold grazes, tighten stops to curb drawdowns in ranging followups.
Multiasset/MultiTF: Defaults work across stocks, forex, and crypto on 15min+ frames; scale Length proportionally (e.g., x2 on hourly). Layer with highertimeframe boxes for confluence—e.g., daily squeeze + 1H box for entry timing. (Unknown/Optional: Specific multiTF scaling recipes beyond proportional adjustment.)
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Repaint/confirmation: Core calculations use historical closes, confirming on bar close; active boxes repaint their right edge and levels live during squeezes if enabled, but freeze irrevocably on hold limit or end—mitigates via barbybar buffer adds without future leaks. No lookahead indexes.
security()/HTF: None used, so no external timeframe repaints; all native to chart resolution.
Resources: Caps at 300 boxes/lines/labels total; small arrays (up to 20 elements) and short loops in sorting/minfinding keep it light—suitable for 10k+ bar charts without throttling. Persistent variables track state across bars efficiently.
Known limits: May lag on ultrasharp volatility spikes due to baseline smoothing; gaps or thin markets can skew trims if buffer hits cap early; overlaps suppress visuals but might hide chained squeezes—(Unknown/Optional: Edge cases in nonstandard sessions).
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Start with defaults for most liquid assets on 1Hdaily: Length 20, Multiplier 0.8, Hold 1, Quantile 0.718—yields balanced detection without excess noise. For too many false starts (choppy charts), increase Hold to 3 and Baseline Length to 70 for stricter confirmation, reducing signals by 3050%. If squeezes feel sluggish or miss quick coils, shorten Length to 14 and enable EMA baseline for snappier adaptation, but monitor for added flips. In highvol environments like options, tighten Multiplier to 0.6 and Quantile to 0.6 to focus on core ranges; reverse for calm pairs by loosening to 0.95. Always backtest tweaks on your asset's history.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a volatilityfiltered visualization tool for spotting and bounding consolidation phases, best as a signal layer atop price action and trend filters—not a standalone predictor of direction or strength. It highlights setups but ignores volume, momentum, or news context, so pair with discreteness rules like higher highs/lows. Never use it alone for entries; always layer risk management, such as 12% stops beyond box extremes, and position sizing based on account drawdown tolerance.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on HeikinAshi, Renko, Kagi, PointandFigure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Liquidity Index with Advanced Statistical NormalizationLiquidity Index with Advanced Statistical Normalization
An open-source TradingView indicator for analyzing global liquidity cycles using robust statistical methods
Overview
This Pine Script indicator combines multiple macroeconomic data sources to construct a composite liquidity index that tracks global financial conditions. It employs advanced statistical techniques typically found in quantitative finance research, adapted for real-time charting.
Key Features
📊 Multi-Source Data Integration
- Federal Reserve Components: Fed Funds Rate, Reverse Repo (RRP), Treasury General Account (TGA)
- PBOC Components: China M2 Money Stock adjusted by CNY/USD exchange rate
- Volatility Index: MOVE Index (bond market volatility)
🔬 Advanced Statistical Methods
1. Theil-Sen Estimator: Robust trend detection resistant to outliers
2. Triple Normalization:
- Z-score normalization
- MAD (Median Absolute Deviation) normalization
- Quantile normalization via inverse normal CDF
3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Short (8-bar) and long (34-bar) windows with blended composite
📈 Signal Processing
- Log-transformation for non-linear relationships
- Smoothing via customizable SMA
- Composite signal averaging across normalization methods
Why This Approach?
Traditional liquidity indicators often suffer from:
- Sensitivity to outliers in economic data
- Assumption of normal distributions
- Single-timeframe bias
This script addresses these issues by:
- Using median-based robust statistics (Theil-Sen, MAD)
- Applying multiple normalization techniques
- Blending short and long-term perspectives
Customization Options
short_length // Short window (default: 8)
long_length // Long window (default: 34)
show_short // Display short composite
show_long // Display long composite
show_blended // Display blended signal
smoothing_length // SMA smoothing period (default: 10)
How to Use
1. Liquidity Expansion (positive values): Risk-on environment, favorable for asset prices
2. Liquidity Contraction (negative values): Risk-off environment, potential market stress
3. Divergences: Compare indicator direction vs. price action for early warnings
Potential Improvements
Community members are encouraged to enhance:
- Additional data sources (ECB balance sheet, BOJ operations, etc.)
- Alternative normalization methods (robust scaling, rank transformation)
- Machine learning integration (LSTM forecasting, regime detection)
- Alert conditions for liquidity inflection points
- Volatility-adjusted weighting schemes
Technical Notes
- Uses request.security() for multi-symbol data fetching
- All calculations handle missing data via nz() functions
- Median-based statistics computed via array operations
- Custom inverse CDF approximation (no external libraries required)
Contributing
This is a foundation for liquidity analysis. Potential extensions:
- LLM Integration: Use language models to parse Fed/PBOC meeting minutes and adjust weights dynamically
- Sentiment Layer: Incorporate crypto funding rates or options skew
- Adaptive Parameters: Auto-tune window lengths based on market regime
- Cross-Asset Validation: Backtest signals against BTC, equities, bonds
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License: Open source - modify and redistribute freelyDisclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Adaptive Vol Gauge [ParadoxAlgo]This is an overlay tool that measures and shows market ups and downs (volatility) based on daily high and low prices. It adjusts automatically to recent price changes and highlights calm or wild market periods. It colors the chart background and bars in shades of blue to cyan, with optional small labels for changes in market mood. Use it for info only—combine with your own analysis and risk controls. It's not a buy/sell signal or promise of results.Key FeaturesSmart Volatility Measure: Tracks price swings with a flexible time window that reacts to market speed.
Market Mood Detection: Spots high-energy (wild) or low-energy (calm) phases to help see shifts.
Visual Style: Uses smooth color fades on the background and bars—cyan for calm, deep blue for wild—to blend nicely on your chart.
Custom Options: Change settings like time periods, sensitivity, colors, and labels.
Chart Fit: Sits right on your main price chart without extra lines, keeping things clean.
How It WorksThe tool figures out volatility like this:Adjustment Factor:Looks at recent price ranges compared to longer ones.
Tweaks the time window (between 10-50 bars) based on how fast prices are moving.
Volatility Calc:Adds up logs of high/low ranges over the adjusted window.
Takes the square root for the final value.
Can scale it to yearly terms for easy comparison across chart timeframes.
Mood Check:Compares current volatility to its recent average and spread.
Flags "high" if above your set level, "low" if below.
Neutral in between.
This setup makes it quicker in busy markets and steadier in quiet ones.Settings You Can ChangeAdjust in the tool's menu:Base Time Window (default: 20): Starting point for calculations. Bigger numbers smooth things out but might miss quick changes.
Adjustment Strength (default: 0.5): How much it reacts to price speed. Low = steady; high = quick changes.
Yearly Scaling (default: on): Makes values comparable across short or long charts. Turn off for raw numbers.
Mood Sensitivity (default: 1.0): How strict for calling high/low moods. Low = more shifts; high = only big ones.
Show Labels (default: on): Adds tiny "High Vol" or "Low Vol" tags when moods change. They point up or down from bars.
Background Fade (default: 80): How see-through the color fill is (0 = invisible, 100 = solid).
Bar Fade (default: 50): How much color blends into your candles or bars (0 = none, 100 = full).
How to Read and Use ItColor Shifts:Background and bars fade based on mood strength:Cyan shades mean calm markets (good for steady, back-and-forth trades).
Deep blue shades mean wild markets (watch for big moves or turns).
Smooth changes show volatility building or easing.
Labels:"High Vol" (deep blue, from below bar): Start of wild phase.
"Low Vol" (cyan, from above bar): Start of calm phase.
Only shows at changes to avoid clutter. Use for timing strategy tweaks.
Trading Ideas:Mood-Based Plays: In wild phases (deep blue), try chase-momentum or breakout trades since swings are bigger. In calm phases (cyan), stick to bounce-back or range trades.
Risk Tips: Cut trade sizes in wild times to handle bigger losses. Use calm times for longer holds with close stops.
Chart Time Tips: Turn on yearly scaling for matching short and long views. Test settings on past data—loosen for quick trades (more alerts), tighten for longer ones (fewer, stronger).
Mix with Others: Add trend lines or averages—buy in calm up-moves, sell in wild down-moves. Check with volume or key levels too.
Special Cases: In big news events, it reacts faster. On slow assets, it might overstate swings—ease the adjustment strength.
Limits and TipsIt looks back at past data, so it trails real-time action and can't predict ahead.
Results differ by stock or timeframe—test on history first.
Colors and tags are just visuals; set your own alerts if needed.
Follows TradingView rules: No win promises, for learning only. Open for sharing; share thoughts in forums.
With this, you can spot market energy and tweak your trades smarter. Start on practice charts.
