HYE Mean Reversion SMAIndicator version of the strategy "HYE Mean Reversion SMA "
"Long", "Short", "Exit Long" and "Exit Short" alarms added.
Use with "Once Per Bar Close".
Meanreversion
GMS: GW-VWAPAlright, as per usual with these, I end up adapting an existing indicator to what I want to accomplish. So this is based off the built in VWAP indicator. I added in the gummy worm to easily identify the trend, as well as the related bands to identify potential areas to either reverse position or to trim an existing one.
The middle part of the bands are the gummy worm version of VWAP. It is the VWAP using the high and another VWAP using the low. The black line is HL2 VWAP (technically 3 VWAPs).
The bands follow what I was mentioning above. So the outer most part of the bands are the high & low VWAP (with the same multiplier) and the inner bands are the HL2 VWAP.
Of course you can set whatever input source you want for these. The default is how I use it. If you want to get rid of the bar color just go to the indicator settings and un-select it at the bottom.
Source code is open so feel free to poke around.
Hope this helps,
Andre
Peak Reversal v2This is a brand new version of my Peak Reversal indicator. As with the older version, the idea behind this indicator is simple: identify potential price reversal areas, and identifying markets which are trending. In this new version I focused on improving on the old concept, but introduced a bunch of features heavily inspired by Adam Grimes' ideas from The Art and Science of Trading. (I also blatantly stole the way he colors candles outside of the bands. Sorry.)
As you can see below this indicator gives traders a plethora of tools to judge whether a market is trending, and might be mean reverting soon.
Follow me, join my group, like the script. You know the drill.
Basic functions:
You have a triplet of Keltner (ATR-based) bands in Peak Reversal. They are defined by a multiplier and an EMA, which is referred to as "the mean". There's a tight, normal, and an extreme band. The multiplier defines how far apart your bands are. By default the indicator uses 1.125, 2.25, and 3.375. The tight band is off by default, but you can turn it on in the options. The mean is also off by default. This is more a personal preference thing for me, because I happen to use a different indicator to show a couple of moving averages.
Band crosses:
Peak Reversal can indicate whenever price crosses one of the bands. This can help traders identify points where a mean reversal play could be an option. Triangles indicate these crosses. New in version 2 is the ability to choose which of the bands to use to show these crosses. If you are more of an aggressive trader, you might find it better to show tight band crosses. If you are looking for more extreme market conditions, then choose extreme. The default is "normal".
Free bars:
Indicating free bars is also a concept from the book. A "free bar" is one which stands "freely" above the bands, which means its low price is completely outside of the bands. It can be argued that a freely standing bar is an even more extreme mean deviation, than just a band cross. Traders can gain an additional advantage studying the markets this way. Free bars are not shown by default, when on, a star shape on the candles indicates free bars. Both band crosses and free bars can be shown at the same time, but there might be overlap.
Deviations:
Also based on a concept from The Art and Science of Trading, is an indication of price "deviations". You will notice that when a candle "touches" a band (high and close above band), its colored. The idea here is to show traders when a market is in motion, but also when a mean reversal might be coming next. To accomplish this, the more colors deviate, the darker the color is. The idea here is also simple, the more price deviates off the mean, the likelier it is to return to it. This uses three different shades to show these deviations. 1-2 is one shade, 3-4 another, and upwards of 5 there's only the darkest shade. I didn't make extensive studies, which color for how many candles would be appropriate to use, but I do believe it doesn't matter that much in usage. It's clear what traders gain from using this information: more deviation, the likelier a snapback becomes.
Advanced mode:
Last but not least, I decided to add an advanced mode for advanced traders. This does nothing more than flip all colors and shapes upside down. Everything that is red, becomes green. The idea is where some traders say "buy low, sell high" (standard mode), other traders might say "buy high, sell higher" (advanced mode). See for yourself, which one you like better.
Hurst ExponentMy first try to implement Full Hurst Exponent.
The Hurst exponent is used as a measure of long-term memory of time series. It relates to the autocorrelations of the time series and the rate at which these decrease as the lag between pairs of values increases
The Hurst exponent is referred to as the "index of dependence" or "index of long-range dependence". It quantifies the relative tendency of a time series either to regress strongly to the mean or to cluster in a direction.
In short, depending on the value you can spot the trending / reversing market.
Values 0.5 to 1 - market trending
Values 0 to 0.5 - market tend to mean revert
Hurst Exponent is computed using Rescaled range (R/S) analysis.
I split the lookback period (N) in the number of shorter samples (for ex. N/2, N/4, N/8, etc.). Then I calculate rescaled range for each sample size.
The Hurst exponent is estimated by fitting the power law. Basically finding the slope of log(samples_size) to log(RS).
You can choose lookback and sample sizes yourself. Max 8 possible at the moment, if you want to use less use 0 in inputs.
It's pretty computational intensive, so I added an input so you can limit from what date you want it to be calculated. If you hit the time limit in PineScript - limit the history you're using for calculations.
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Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
ema exhaustion (exa)The exa is an oscillator that combines fisher transform with distance from moving average and it is based on a theory that exhaustion can be derived from how far price is able to extend from a moving average, on average.
The fisher transform converts price into a gaussian normal distribution, also known as a bell curve {1}. A normal distribution is a type of probability distribution for a real-valued random variable {2}. Applying this method to the price of an asset can help to identify probabilities, but it will never identify certainties.
‘exa’ is an abbreviation for ema exhaustion. It can be used to identify when price is probable to revert to the mean but I prefer using it to confirm entries that are signaled following a reversion to the mean (aka buying the dip in bull markets). When price gets oversold into support, in a bull trend, then that can provide a good opportunity to enter long. However that isn’t necessarily the case when the same metrics indicate oversold conditions in a bear trend. In this situation the exa is best suited for identifying profit taking opportunities on shorts.
The default settings are a 9 lookback period and a 50 ema. By default signals will be derived from how far price is from the 50 ema relative to the probable distribution of the last 9 periods. If the exa is above 2, or below -2, then the price is in the 80th percentile of the prior 9 candles. Being outside of 3, or -3, represents the 90th percentile and 4, or -4, represents the 95th percentile.
Those ranges will never indicate a necessity of reverting to the mean, but they will indicate a higher and higher probability. I prefer to use this oscillator in combination with an indicator(s) that identifies the trend. When the oscillator reaches -2 in a bull trend then it can confirm long entry signals, whereas if it reaches +2 in a bull trend then it can be used to confirm signals to take profit.
Crossovers are especially significant because they indicate a shift in the tide. When the exa reaches 2 without crossing over then it is very much in a position to move to 3 or 4+. When it crosses above 2 then it is an indication that price is extended from the mean and exhausted.
This is certainly not a situation that implies price will revert to the mean, it simply provides confirmation.
The default settings are what I have been finding most effective personally, however that is mostly a function of the trend following tools that I use. The same principles should apply with all settings and I would encourage users to experiment with various lookback periods and emas.
{1} www.investopedia.com
{2} en.wikipedia.org
Simple Hurst Exponent [QuantNomad]This is a simplified version of the Hurst Exponent indicator.
In the meantime, I'm working on the full version. It's computationally intensive, so it's a challenge to squeeze it to PineScript limits. It will require some time to optimize it, so I decided to publish a simplified version for now.
The Hurst exponent is used as a measure of long-term memory of time series. It relates to the autocorrelations of the time series, and the rate at which these decrease as the lag between pairs of values increases
The Hurst exponent is referred to as the "index of dependence" or "index of long-range dependence". It quantifies the relative tendency of a time series either to regress strongly to the mean or to cluster in a direction.
In short depend on value you can spot trending / reversing market.
Values 0.5 to 1 - market trending
Values 0 to 0.5 - market tend to mean revert
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Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Coefficient of Variation - EMA and SMA StDevYet another way to try and measure volatility. An alternative to using ATR is Standard Deviation, it can be used to measure volatility or what is also known as risk. SD measures how dispersed or far away the data is from the mean. It's commonly seen in risk management formulas or portfolio diversification formulas. The problem however is that the numbers that ATR and SD give off from one equity might not be relative to others or its own past. For example, SPY can give a large number despite not being as volatile as other equities while others being compared to can have smaller volatility numbers and still be more volatile looking.
A solution I thought of is to use percentages that are relatable to different equities. I found out another name for this idea comes from statistics and is known as coefficient of variation, also known as relative standard deviation. This helps see the volatility as a percentage and not just a number that only relates to what is being seen at the moment. I put in a border line on the zero level to see where zero is at but also to edit in case there is such a thing as a percentage number that can be too high or too low for volatility to be looked at if needed. The average and standard deviation formulas can use either simple moving average or exponential moving average.
Ark Crypto HeatlineThis is the 'on chart' indicator. See also "Ark Crypto Heatband" indicator for a side-by-side BTC view, without a re-scaled line.
The crypto landscape is largely dominated by BTC and characterised by cyclical stages with varying degrees of mean reversion.
To understand what stage of the cycle we are currently experiencing, it is useful to examine to what degree the current price has extended beyond the long term average that BTC has established. This is true even when analysing other crypto assets as BTC is the dominant force in the crypto asset class.
This indicator uses the 1400 period daily SMA , which is broadly the 200 period weekly SMA. This can be configured, but historically has represented a baseline to which BTC commonly returns.
The graph plots current price in terms of multiples of this long term average. Traditionally, at multiples beyond 10, BTC is considered overextended with a higher likelihood of trending towards the mean thereafter. Colors indicate the extent of price extension.
Where the indicator is applied to non BTCUSD pairs, a smoothed conversion is applied, seeking to superimpose the BTC long period SMA onto the current chart.
The indicator specifically references BTC by default on all charts, as it is designed to use BTC as general purpose indication of where crypto as a whole currently sits. Accordingly the indicator is only to be used on crypto charts.
For best results on BTC, using BNC:BLX will give the longest historical view.
Ark Crypto HeatbandThe crypto landscape is largely dominated by BTC and characterised by cyclical stages with varying degrees of mean reversion.
To understand what stage of the cycle we are currently experiencing, it is useful to examine to what degree the current BTC price has extended beyond a long term average. This is true even when analysing other crypto assets and helpful to view side by side.
This indicator uses the 1400 period daily SMA, which is broadly the 200 period weekly SMA. This can be configured, but historically has represented a baseline to which BTC commonly returns.
The graph plots current price in terms of multiples of this long term average. Traditionally, at multiples beyond 10, BTC is considered overextended with a higher likelihood of trending towards the mean thereafter. Colors indicate the extend of price extension.
The indicator specifically references BTC by default on all charts as it is designed to use BTC as general purpose indication of where crypto as a whole currently sits. Accordingly the indicator is only to be used on crypto charts.
Mean Reversion Channel - (fareid's MRI Variant)Description :
Mean Reversion Channel objective, based on Mean Reversion theory ( everything has a tendency to revert back to its mean), is to help visualizing:
Inner Channel -> Dynamic Support and Resistance
Outer Channel -> Overbought/Oversold Zone which may signal consolidation phase or potential reversal due to unsustainable move
Details on some of the filtering type used for mean calculation can be read in Ehlers Technical Papers: "Swiss Army Knife Indicator" and/or his book "Cybernetics Analysis for Stock and Futures"
Disclaimer:
These study scripts was built only to test/visualize an idea to see its viability and if it can be used to optimize existing strategy.
Any ideas to further improve this indicator are welcome :)
dirt cheap yet elegant RSI StrategyFor Educational Purposes. Results can differ on different markets and can fail at any time. Profit is not guaranteed.
This only works in a few markets and in certain situations. Changing the settings can give better or worse results for other markets. This is a good way to show off a good looking strategy, atleast in paper, with minimal effort involved in the making and usage. It can be made with the most minimal lines of code if needed to bring shame unto others. It only works in a few markets and who knows if it will actually rebound from the overbought or oversold levels but in case it doesn't I put in a time-based stop to exit in case of that worst case scenario. There's not much to it, good for trolling others, or serious business, you decide.
Bollinger Bands Strategy with Intraday Intensity IndexFor Educational Purposes. Results can differ on different markets and can fail at any time. Profit is not guaranteed.
This only works in a few markets and in certain situations. Changing the settings can give better or worse results for other markets.
This is a mean reversion strategy based on Bollinger Bands and the Intraday Intensity Index (a volume indicator). John Bollinger mentions that the Intraday Intensity Index can be used with Bollinger Bands and is one of the top indicators he recommends in his book. It seems he prefers it over the other volume indicators that he compares to for some reason. III looks a lot like Chaikin Money Flow but without the denominator in that calculation. On the default settings of the BBs, the III helps give off better entry signals. John Bollinger however is vague on how to use the BBs and it's hard to say if one should enter when it is below/above the bands or when the price crosses them. I find that with many indicators and strategies it's best to wait for a confirmation of some sort, in this case by waiting for some crossover of a band. Like most mean reversion strategies, the exit is very loose if using BBs alone. Usually the plan to exit is when the price finally reverts back to the mean or in this case the middle band. This can potentially lead to huge drawdowns and/or losses. Mean reversion strategies can have high win/loss ratios but can still end up unprofitable because of the huge losses that can occur. These drawdowns/losses that mean reversion strategies suffer from can potentially eat away at a large chunk of all that was previously made or perhaps up to all of it in the worst cases, can occur weeks or perhaps up to months after being profitable trading such a strategy, and will take a while and several trades to make it all back or keep a profitable track record. It is important to have a stop loss, trailing stop, or some sort of stop plan with these types of strategies. For this one, in addition to exiting the trade when price reverts to the middle band, I included a time-based stop plan that exits with a gain or with a loss to avoid potentially large losses, and to exit after only a few periods after taking the trade if in profit instead of waiting for the price to revert back to the mean.
GMS: Mr. Yen's Color ZoneThis is Mr. Yen's color zone. I have also added an input to adjust the sizes of each box. Mainly targeted for MES and ES.
The default settings are as he describes:
white line is the previous day close
red zone = +/- 20 from the previous day close
yellow zone = +/- 40 from the previous day close
green zone = +/- 60 from the previous day close
blue zone = +/- 100 from the previous day close
The source code is open, so feel free to take a look and see whats up. This indicator is quite similar to his, however there is a gap at the cash close to overnight open on his chart that I'm not sure how to adjust for. In any case, this one is still pretty good!
I hope it helps,
Andre
ATR Pivot Point Index [racer8]Description:
ATR Pivot Point Index (ATR_PPI) is based on the theory of mean reversion.
I was inspired to create this indicator after watching a particular YouTube video on the UKspreadbetting channel.
In this video, the trader being interviewed mentioned that he would exit when price is too far from the moving average.
In other words, he exits when he thinks price will revert back to the moving average (mean reversion).
I'm not sure what period moving average he used, so I set it to the standard 14 periods.
I wanted to quantify his strategy so that the user can consistently exit a trade at a fixed distance away from the moving average.
For this indicator, this distance is in ATR units.
This strategy of exiting is known as the mean reversion exit strategy.
Alternatively, if the user wishes to, this indicator can also be used as an entry indicator (Trend entry strategy).
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Parameters:
1. Sma Period - controls length of moving average (Affects histogram).
2. Atr Period - controls length of Atr, doesn't have much affect on indicator (Affects histogram).
3. Atr Pivot Point Level - controls horizontal line, it determines how far away in Atr units you want to exit/enter from the sma for every trade.
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Interpreting signals:
(Trend entry strategy) When histogram is...
Green - enter long
Red - enter short
Purple - No signal
(Mean reversion exit strategy) When histogram is...
Green - exit long
Red - exit short
Purple - No signal
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Calculation:
Distance = Absolute value of (current close - moving average(14))
ATR_units = Distance / ATR(14) ...........Plot as histogram.
Add horizontal line set at (2)*ATR .......Plot line.
Is histogram > line?
Yes, histogram color is green/red.
No, histogram color is purple.
Note: For mean reversion exit strategy, I recommend HIGHER Atr Pivot Point Level values. Vice versa for trend entry strategy.
Enjoy :)
GMS: Candlestick Patterns with RSI FilterI wanted to apply an RSI filter to some of the new Candlestick Patterns (in the indicators tab) since some of them looked to be quite effective for picking reversals. Turns out it's a pretty good pairing.
You can modify the RSI length in addition to the upper and lower thresholds. I also added in check boxes to combine different bullish and bearish patterns.
The candlestick patterns included are:
1. Long Upper Shadow
2. Long Lower Shadow
3. Doji
4. Bullish Harami
5. Bearish Harami
6. Bullish Engulfing
7. Bearish Engulfing
Hope it helps!
Andre
Hammer & Shooting Star IndicatorA hammer candle is defined here as 1) the lower shadow (wick) is at least twice the length of the main body and 2) the close is in the top half of the range.
A shooting star has the opposite conditions 1) the upper shadow is at least twice the size of the main body and 2) the close is in the lower half of the range.
These candles should not be used by themselves but used in context ie with Bollinger bands, RSI or other oscillators they can form part of a mean reversion system.
Bars above/below EMACount of previous bars above or below a chosen Exponential Moving Average. Typically price reconnects with well defined EMAs regularly. If the price has been above/below an EMA for too long, you can expect a reconnect in a short order and bet on mean reversion strategies.
GMS: Mean Reversion StrategyThis is based on my GMS: Mean Reversion Indicator ()
Features:
- % Based Profit Target and Stop Loss
- SMA Trend Filter
- Can choose trade exit based off a moving average or linear regression curve
- Filter for long only trades, short only trades, or both at the same time.
Source code is open, so feel free to take a look!
I hope it helps,
Andre
Data MeanCalculating the Mean, given a set of data.
I'd assume BTCUSD needs to touch this on the daily, as it hasn't yet.
"reverting to the mean" is essential in market dynamics.
GMS: Mean Reversion IndicatorThis is just the close represented as a standard deviation away from an "x" period linear regression. You can select the price source as well.
Trend Following or Mean RevertingThe strategy checks nature of the instruments. It Buys if the close is greater than yesterday's high, reverse the position if the close is lower than yesterday's low and repeat the process.
1. If it is trend following then the equity curve will be in uptrend
2. If it is mean reverting then the equity curve will be downtrend
Thanks to Rayner Teo.
ATR-ranged Donch on 15min// This is a simple Mean Reversion & Breakout Indicator.
// A Donchian Channel is plotted. A threshold equal to 0.25 of Daily ATR.
// If price reverses from this threshold, then it can be taken as possible Mean Reversion.
// If price crosses the previous Donchian levels, it can be taken as a possible breakout.
// Typical of such strategy is the whipsaw effect when price movement is just flat.
// I have marked the region where the lower and higher thresholds are closer to be an indicative of whipsaw.
// But it is not really effective to avoid whipsaw.
Mean Reversion Strategy by KrisWatersThis is a type of mean reversion strategy. It only generates long signals when the price is far away from the mean. It tries buy from the dip. Use it with BTC/USDT pair on 4 hour timeframe.
