SMC N-Gram Probability Matrix [PhenLabs]📊 SMC N-Gram Probability Matrix
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
The SMC N-Gram Probability Matrix applies computational linguistics methodology to Smart Money Concepts trading. By treating SMC patterns as a discrete “alphabet” and analyzing their sequential relationships through N-gram modeling, this indicator calculates the statistical probability of which pattern will appear next based on historical transitions.
Traditional SMC analysis is reactive—traders identify patterns after they form and then anticipate the next move. This indicator inverts that approach by building a transition probability matrix from up to 5,000 bars of pattern history, enabling traders to see which SMC formations most frequently follow their current market sequence.
The indicator detects and classifies 11 distinct SMC patterns including Fair Value Gaps, Order Blocks, Liquidity Sweeps, Break of Structure, and Change of Character in both bullish and bearish variants, then tracks how these patterns transition from one to another over time.
🚀 Points of Innovation
First indicator to apply N-gram sequence modeling from computational linguistics to SMC pattern analysis
Dynamic transition matrix rebuilds every 50 bars for adaptive probability calculations
Supports bigram (2), trigram (3), and quadgram (4) sequence lengths for varying analysis depth
Priority-based pattern classification ensures higher-significance patterns (CHoCH, BOS) take precedence
Configurable minimum occurrence threshold filters out statistically insignificant predictions
Real-time probability visualization with graphical confidence bars
🔧 Core Components
Pattern Alphabet System: 11 discrete SMC patterns encoded as integers for efficient matrix indexing and transition tracking
Swing Point Detection: Uses ta.pivothigh/pivotlow with configurable sensitivity for non-repainting structure identification
Transition Count Matrix: Flattened array storing occurrence counts for all possible pattern sequence transitions
Context Encoder: Converts N-gram pattern sequences into unique integer IDs for matrix lookup
Probability Calculator: Transforms raw transition counts into percentage probabilities for each possible next pattern
🔥 Key Features
Multi-Pattern SMC Detection: Simultaneously identifies FVGs, Order Blocks, Liquidity Sweeps, BOS, and CHoCH formations
Adjustable N-Gram Length: Choose between 2-4 pattern sequences to balance specificity against sample size
Flexible Lookback Range: Analyze anywhere from 100 to 5,000 historical bars for matrix construction
Pattern Toggle Controls: Enable or disable individual SMC pattern types to customize analysis focus
Probability Threshold Filtering: Set minimum occurrence requirements to ensure prediction reliability
Alert Integration: Built-in alert conditions trigger when high-probability predictions emerge
🎨 Visualization
Probability Table: Displays current pattern, recent sequence, sample count, and top N predicted patterns with percentage probabilities
Graphical Probability Bars: Visual bar representation (█░) showing relative probability strength at a glance
Chart Pattern Markers: Color-coded labels placed directly on price bars identifying detected SMC formations
Pattern Short Codes: Compact notation (F+, F-, O+, O-, L↑, L↓, B+, B-, C+, C-) for quick pattern identification
Customizable Table Position: Place probability display in any corner of your chart
📖 Usage Guidelines
N-Gram Configuration
N-Gram Length: Default 2, Range 2-4. Lower values provide more samples but less specificity. Higher values capture complex sequences but require more historical data.
Matrix Lookback Bars: Default 500, Range 100-5000. More bars increase statistical significance but may include outdated market behavior.
Min Occurrences for Prediction: Default 2, Range 1-10. Higher values filter noise but may reduce prediction availability.
SMC Detection Settings
Swing Detection Length: Default 5, Range 2-20. Controls pivot sensitivity for structure analysis.
FVG Minimum Size: Default 0.1%, Range 0.01-2.0%. Filters insignificant gaps.
Order Block Lookback: Default 10, Range 3-30. Bars to search for OB formations.
Liquidity Sweep Threshold: Default 0.3%, Range 0.05-1.0%. Minimum wick extension beyond swing points.
Display Settings
Show Probability Table: Toggle the probability matrix display on/off.
Show Top N Probabilities: Default 5, Range 3-10. Number of predicted patterns to display.
Show SMC Markers: Toggle on-chart pattern labels.
✅ Best Use Cases
Anticipating continuation or reversal patterns after liquidity sweeps
Identifying high-probability BOS/CHoCH sequences for trend trading
Filtering FVG and Order Block signals based on historical follow-through rates
Building confluence by comparing predicted patterns with other technical analysis
Studying how SMC patterns typically sequence on specific instruments or timeframes
⚠️ Limitations
Predictions are based solely on historical pattern frequency and do not account for fundamental factors
Low sample counts produce unreliable probabilities—always check the Samples display
Market regime changes can invalidate historical transition patterns
The indicator requires sufficient historical data to build meaningful probability matrices
Pattern detection uses standardized parameters that may not capture all institutional activity
💡 What Makes This Unique
Linguistic Modeling Applied to Markets: Treats SMC patterns like words in a language, analyzing how they “flow” together
Quantified Pattern Relationships: Transforms subjective SMC analysis into objective probability percentages
Adaptive Learning: Matrix rebuilds periodically to incorporate recent pattern behavior
Comprehensive SMC Coverage: Tracks all major Smart Money Concepts in a unified probability framework
🔬 How It Works
1. Pattern Detection Phase
Each bar is analyzed for SMC formations using configurable detection parameters
A priority hierarchy assigns the most significant pattern when multiple detections occur
2. Sequence Encoding Phase
Detected patterns are stored in a rolling history buffer of recent classifications
The current N-gram context is encoded into a unique integer identifier
3. Matrix Construction Phase
Historical pattern sequences are iterated to count transition occurrences
Each context-to-next-pattern transition increments the appropriate matrix cell
4. Probability Calculation Phase
Current context ID retrieves corresponding transition counts from the matrix
Raw counts are converted to percentages based on total context occurrences
5. Visualization Phase
Probabilities are sorted and the top N predictions are displayed in the table
Chart markers identify the current detected pattern for visual reference
💡 Note:
This indicator performs best when used as a confluence tool alongside traditional SMC analysis. The probability predictions highlight statistically common pattern sequences but should not be used as standalone trading signals. Always verify predictions against price action context, higher timeframe structure, and your overall trading plan. Monitor the sample count to ensure predictions are based on adequate historical data.
Liquiditysweeps
Valid Monthly LevelsValid Monthly Levels (No Sweeps) + Smart Labels
This tool automatically plots the highs and lows of each completed monthly candle and tracks their validity in real time. A level is considered valid until it has been swept (price trades strictly beyond that high or low). Once swept, the line and label can either be removed or dimmed depending on your settings.
Key features:
Monthly highs and lows: Each month’s range is marked with horizontal levels that extend forward.
Valid vs. swept logic: Levels are only valid until breached; swept levels can be hidden or kept as dotted/grey lines.
Smart labels: Each level is labeled with the month and year (e.g., Sep ’25 H/L). On higher timeframes, labels sit at the candle; on lower timeframes, labels automatically shift to the right edge so they don’t disappear off-screen.
Customizable appearance: Choose colors for highs, lows, and swept levels; adjust line styles; and limit how many past months are shown.
Clutter control: Cap the maximum number of labels, so your chart stays readable even on small intraday timeframes.
This indicator is useful for traders who track monthly supply/demand extremes, liquidity sweeps, and higher-timeframe context when executing on lower timeframes.
[TehThomas] - ICT Liquidity sweepsThe ICT Liquidity Sweeps Indicator is designed to track liquidity zones in the market areas where stop-losses and pending orders are typically clustered. This indicator marks buyside liquidity (resistance) and sellside liquidity (support), helping traders identify areas where price is likely to manipulate liquidity before making a significant move.
This tool is based on Inner Circle Trader (ICT) Smart Money Concepts, which emphasize how institutional traders, or “Smart Money,” manipulate liquidity to fuel price movements. By identifying these zones, traders can anticipate liquidity sweeps and position themselves accordingly.
⚙️ How It Works
1️⃣ Detects Key Liquidity Zones
The script automatically identifies significant swing highs and swing lows in price action using a pivot-based method.
A swing high (buyside liquidity) is a peak where price struggles to break higher, forming a resistance level.
A swing low (sellside liquidity) is a valley where price struggles to go lower, creating a support level.
These liquidity points are prime targets for liquidity sweeps before a true trend direction is confirmed.
2️⃣ Draws Liquidity Lines
Once a swing high or low is identified, a horizontal line is drawn at that level.
The lines extend to the right, serving as future liquidity targets until they are broken.
The indicator allows customization in terms of color, line width, and maximum number of liquidity lines displayed at once.
3️⃣ Handles Liquidity Sweeps
When price breaks a liquidity level, the indicator reacts based on the chosen action setting:
Dotted/Dashed: The line remains visible but changes style to indicate a sweep.
Delete: The line is completely removed once price has interacted with it.
This feature ensures that traders can easily spot where liquidity has been taken and determine whether a reversal or continuation is likely.
4️⃣ Prevents Chart Clutter
To maintain a clean chart, the script limits the number of liquidity lines displayed at any given time.
When new liquidity zones are formed, the oldest lines are automatically removed, keeping the focus on the most relevant liquidity zones.
🎯 How to Use the ICT Liquidity Sweeps Indicator
🔍 Identifying Liquidity Grabs
This indicator helps you identify areas where Smart Money is targeting liquidity before making a move.
Buyside Liquidity (BSL) Sweeps:
Occur when price spikes above a resistance level before reversing downward.
Indicate that Smart Money has hunted stop-losses and buy stops before driving price lower.
Sellside Liquidity (SSL) Sweeps:
Occur when price drops below a support level before reversing upward.
Indicate that Smart Money has collected liquidity from stop-losses and sell stops before pushing price higher.
📈 Combining with Market Structure Shifts (MSS)
One of the best ways to use this indicator is in conjunction with our Market Structure Shifts Indicator.
Liquidity sweeps + MSS Confirmation give strong high-probability trade setups:
Wait for a liquidity sweep (price takes out a liquidity level).
Look for an MSS in the opposite direction (e.g., price sweeps a high, then breaks a recent low).
Enter the trade in the new direction with stop-loss above/below the liquidity sweep.
📊 Entry & Exit Strategies
Long Trade Example:
Price sweeps a key sellside liquidity level (SSL) → creates a false breakdown.
MSS confirms a reversal (price breaks structure upwards).
Enter long position after confirmation.
Stop-loss below the liquidity grab to minimize risk.
Short Trade Example:
Price sweeps a key buyside liquidity level (BSL) → takes liquidity above resistance.
MSS confirms a bearish move (price breaks a key support level).
Enter short position after confirmation.
Stop-loss above the liquidity grab.
🚀 Why This Indicator is a Game-Changer
✅ Helps Identify Smart Money Manipulation – Understand where institutions are likely to grab liquidity before the real move happens.
✅ Enhances Market Structure Analysis – When paired with MSS, liquidity sweeps become powerful signals for trend reversals.
✅ Filters Out False Breakouts – Many traders get caught in liquidity grabs. This indicator helps avoid bad entries.
✅ Keeps Your Chart Clean – The auto-limiting feature ensures that only the most relevant liquidity levels remain visible.
✅ Works on Any Timeframe – Whether you’re a scalper, day trader, or swing trader, liquidity concepts apply universally.
📌 Final Thoughts
The ICT Liquidity Sweeps Indicator is a must-have tool for traders who follow Smart Money Concepts. By tracking liquidity levels and highlighting sweeps, it allows traders to enter trades with precision while avoiding false breakouts.
When combined with Market Structure Shifts (MSS), this strategy becomes even more powerful, offering traders an edge in spotting reversals and timing entries effectively.
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