Hedge Coin M - Statistical Support and ResistanceHedge Coin M - Statistical Support and Resistance
Introduction
"Hedge Coin M - Statistical Support and Resistance" is a sophisticated, statistically-driven indicator designed specifically for traders in the COIN-M market on Binance. It offers a nuanced approach to identifying key market levels, focusing on the dynamics of support and resistance through advanced volatility analysis.
Foundation and Credits:
This script is an advanced adaptation of TradingView's standard code for the Bollinger Bands indicator. It extends the foundational concept of Bollinger Bands by integrating additional volatility metrics.
Calculation Method
This indicator employs Volume Weighted Moving Averages (VWMA) to create two distinct sets of Bollinger Bands, named BB-a and BB-b.
BB-a is derived from the VWMA of high prices, targeting potential resistance levels.
BB-b is based on the VWMA of low prices, aimed at identifying critical support levels.
Users can independently adjust the standard deviation (SD) multipliers for the upper and lower bands of both BB-a and BB-b, accommodating different market conditions.
Enhanced Volatility Analysis
The indicator calculates additional standard deviation lines for the upper band of BB-a and the lower band of BB-b. These lines provide deeper insights into market volatility.
Plotted Graphs
The primary plots include the upper and lower bands of BB-a and BB-b, marked in distinct colors for clarity.
Additional SD lines are plotted to indicate potential extended levels of support and resistance, offering traders a broader view of possible market movements.
Purpose and Usage
"Hedge Coin M - Statistical Support and Resistance" is designed to provide traders with a consistent, statistical method for identifying significant price levels.
It aids in scaling entry into positions, helping traders to navigate the COIN-M market with more informed decision-making.
This tool is especially useful for traders who combine long-term holding with swing trading strategies, offering a balanced approach to market engagement.
Integration and Adaptation
Easily integrate this indicator into your TradingView chart for the COIN-M market.
Use the insights provided to complement your overall trading strategy, particularly in identifying and reacting to significant market movements.
Disclaimer
Important Note: This indicator is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. Trading decisions should be made based on your own analysis, prudence, and judgment. Please be aware of the risks involved in trading and consult a financial advisor if necessary.
Hedging
LNL Simple Hedging ToolLNL Simple Hedging Tool
Simple Hedging Tool was created specifically for swing traders who struggle with hedging. This tool helps to spot the ideal moments to put the hedges on (protection of the portfolio during "high risk" times). Simple Hedging Tool will not help you when day trading. It was designed for the daily charts. It is called simple because it is pretty much self-explanatory indicator. The candles are either blue or yellow. Meaning of the colors depend on the version you are using. This tool consist of two versions:
SPX Version:
This version was designed for indexes & overall market benchmarks. In contrast with the VIX version, the SPX version is little more sophisticated since it is based on key market internals. Blue arrows above the candles? More often than not this is signalizing that the key market internals are now approaching bearish signals which means it is the best time to hedge any bullish positions. On the contrary, the yellow arrows are the good reason to lighten up of the shorts & ease off the gas pedal on any bearish outlooks.
VIX Version:
Apart from the black swan events (big market crashes) Vix usually oscillates between the daily extremes. The VIX version is based on a simple bollinger band technique which is visualized with blue & yellow arrows. Whenever the yellow arrows & candles appear, it is good time to put the hedges on & perhaps lighten up on longs.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
The signals from this tool WILL NOT TELL YOU where to buy or sell! But rather when is a good time TO NOT buy or TO NOT sell. Once the signals appear it does not necessarily mean that the move is over & reversion willl happen immidiately. These signals can be flashing for days even weeks. They are not flashing for you to change the bias but rather tighten up your exposure in case your portfolio is mostly one sided.
Hope it helps.
4C Expected Move (Weekly Options)This indicator plots the Expected Move (EM) calculated from weekly options pricing, for a quick visual reference.
The EM is the amount that a stock is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price, based on the current level of implied volatility.
This range can be viewed as support and resistance, or once price gets outside of the range, institutional hedging actions can accelerate the move in that direction.
The EM range is based on the Weekly close of the prior week.
It can be useful to know what the weekly EM range is for a stock to understand the probabilities of the overall distance, direction and volatility for the week.
To use this indicator you must have access to a broker with options data (not available on Tradingview).
Look at the stock's option chain and find the weekly expected move. You will have to do your own research to find where this information is displayed depending on your broker.
See screenshot example on the chart. This is the Thinkorswim platform's option chain, and the Implied Volatility % and the calculated EM is circled in red. Use the +- number in parentheses, NOT the % value.
Input that number into the indicator on a weekly basis, ideally on the weekend sometime after the cash market close on Friday, and before the Market open at the beginning of the trading week.
The indicator must be manually updated each week.
It will automatically start over at the beginning of the week.
Generalized Black-Scholes-Merton on Variance Form [Loxx]Generalized Black-Scholes-Merton on Variance Form is an adaptation of the Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing Model including Numerical Greeks. The following information is an excerpt from Espen Gaarder Haug's book "Option Pricing Formulas". This version is to price Options using variance instead of volatility.
Black- Scholes- Merton on Variance Form
In some circumstances, it is useful to rewrite the BSM formula using variance as input instead of volatility, V = v^2:
c = S * e^((b - r) * T) * N(d1) - X * e^(-r * T) * N(d2)
p = X * e^(-r * T) * N(-d2) - S * e^((b - r) * T) * N(-d1)
where
d1 = (log(S / X) + (b + V^2 / 2) * T) / (V * T)^0.5
d2 = d1 - (V * T)^0.5
BSM on variance form clearly gives the same price as when written on volatility form. The variance form is used indirectly in terms of its partial derivatives in some stochastic variance models, as well as for hedging of variance swaps. The BSM on variance form moreover admits an interesting symmetry between put and call options as discussed by Adamchuk and Haug (2005) at www.wilmott.com .
c(S, X, T, r, b, V) = -c(-S, -X, -T, -r, -b, -V)
and
p(S, X, T, r, b, V) = -p(-S, -X, -T, -r, -b, -V)
It is possible to find several similar symmetries if we introduce imaginary numbers.
b = r ... gives the Black and Scholes (1973) stock option model.
b = r — q ... gives the Merton (1973) stock option model with continuous dividend yield q.
b = 0 ... gives the Black (1976) futures option model.
b = 0 and r = 0 ... gives the Asay (1982) margined futures option model.
b = r — rf ... gives the Garman and Kohlhagen (1983) currency option model.
Inputs
S = Stock price.
X = Strike price of option.
T = Time to expiration in years.
r = Risk-free rate
cc = Cost of Carry
V = Variance of the underlying asset price
cnd (x) = The cumulative normal distribution function
nd(x) = The standard normal density function
convertingToCCRate(r, cmp ) = Rate compounder
Numerical Greeks or Greeks by Finite Difference
Analytical Greeks are the standard approach to estimating Delta, Gamma etc... That is what we typically use when we can derive from closed form solutions. Normally, these are well-defined and available in text books. Previously, we relied on closed form solutions for the call or put formulae differentiated with respect to the Black Scholes parameters. When Greeks formulae are difficult to develop or tease out, we can alternatively employ numerical Greeks - sometimes referred to finite difference approximations. A key advantage of numerical Greeks relates to their estimation independent of deriving mathematical Greeks. This could be important when we examine American options where there may not technically exist an exact closed form solution that is straightforward to work with. (via VinegarHill FinanceLabs)
Things to know
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
You can adjust the text size to fit the screen
R:R Trading System FrameworkFirst off, huge thanks to @fikira! He was able to adapt what I built to work much more efficiently, allowing for more strategies to be used simultaneously. Simply put, I could not have gotten to this point without you. Thanks for what you do for the TV community. Second, I am fairly new to pinescript writing, so I welcome criticism, thoughtful input and improvement suggestions. I would love to grow this concept into something even better, if possible. So please let me know if you have any ideas for improvement. However I do juggle a lot of different things outside of TV, so implementations may be delayed.
I have decided, at this time, not to add alerts. First, because I feel most people looking to adapt this framework can add their own pretty easily. Also, given how customized the framework is currently, while also attempting to account for all the possible ways in which people may want alerts to function after they customize it, it seems best to leave them out as it doesn't exactly fit the idea of a framework.
For best viewing, I recommend hovering over the script's name > ... > Visual order > Bring to front. Also I found hollow candles with mono-toned colors (like pictured) are more visually appealing for me personally. I HIGHLY RECOMMEND USING WITH BAR REPLAY TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE FRAMEWORK'S FUNCTIONALITY.
▶️ WHAT THIS FRAMEWORK IS
- A huge collection of concepts and capabilities for those trying to better understand, learn, or teach pinescript.
- A system designed to showcase Risk:Reward concepts more holistically by providing all of the most popular components of retail trading to include backtesting, trade visual plotting, position tracking, market condition shifts, and useful info while positioned to help highlight changes in your risk:reward based decision-making processes.
- A system that can showcase individual strategies regardless of trade direction, allowing you to develop hedging strategies without having multiple indicators that do not correlate with each other.
- Designed around the idea that you trade less numbers of assets but manage your positions and risk based on multiple concurrently running strategies to manage your risk exposure and reward potential.
- An attempt to combine all the things you need to execute with an active trading management style.
- A framework that uses backtested results (in this case the number of averaged bars it takes to hit key levels) in real-time to inform your risk:reward decision-making while in-trade (in this case in your Trade Tracking Table using dynamic color to show how you might be early, on-time, or late compared to the average amount of backtested time it normally takes to hit that specific key level).
▶️ WHAT THIS FRAMEWORK IS NOT
- A complete trading product. DO NOT USE as-is. It is a FRAMEWORK for you to generate ideas of your own and fairly easily implement your own triggering conditions in the appropriate sections of the script.
▶️ USE CASES
- If you decide you like the Stop, Target, Trailing Stop, and Risk:Reward components as-is, then just understanding how to plug in your Entry and Bullish / Bearish conditions (Triangles) and adjust the input texts to match your custom naming will be all you need to make it your own!
- If you want to adapt certain components, then this system gives you a great starting point to adapt your different concepts and ideas from.
▶️ SYSTEM COMPONENTS
- Each of the system's components are described via tooltips both in the input menu and in the tables' cells.
- Each label on the chart displays the corresponding price at those triggered conditions on hover with tooltips.
- The Trailing Stop only becomes active once it is above the Entry Price for that trade, and brightens to show it is active. The STOP line (right of price) moves once it takes over for the Entry Stop representing the level of the Trailing Stop at that time for that trade.
- The Lines / Labels to the right of price will brighten once price is above for Longs or below for Shorts. The Trade Tracking Table cells will add ☑️ once price is above for Longs or below for Shorts.
- The brighter boxes on the chart show the trades that occurred based on your criteria and are color coded for all components of each trade type to ensure your references are consistent. (Defaults are TV built-in strategies)
- The lighter boxes on the chart show the highest and lowest price levels reached during those trades, to highlight areas where improvements can be made or additional considerations can be accounted for by either adjusting Entry triggers or Bullish / Bearish triggers.
- Default Green and Red Triangles (Bullish / Bearish) default to having the same triggering condition as the Entry it corresponds to. This is to highlight either a pyramiding concept, early exit, or you can change to account for other things occurring during your trades which could help you with Stop and Target management/considerations.
TradingView and many of its community members have done a lot for me, so this is my attempt to give back.
vix_vx_regressionAn example of the linear regression library, showing the regression of VX futures on the VIX. The beta might help you weight VX futures when hedging SPX vega exposure. A VX future has point multiplier of 1000, whereas SPX options have a point multiplier of 100. Suppose the front month VX future has a beta of 0.6 and the front month SPX straddle has a vega of 8.5. Using these approximations, the VX future will underhedge the SPX straddle, since (0.6 * 1000) < (8.5 * 100). The position will have about 2.5 ($250) vega. Use the R^2 (coefficient of determination) to check how well the model fits the relationship between VX and VIX. The further from one this value, the less useful the model.
(Note that the mini, VXM futures also have a 100 point multiplier).
Short In Downtrend Below MA100 (Coinrule)This is a simple strategy to take advantage of downtrends. It's useful to run such a strategy as a hedge in times of market uncertainty.
The Sell Condition - Entry
The sell signal triggers when:
the coin has MA (100) greater than the price in a timeframe of 15 minutes, meaning that the coin is in a short-term downtrend.
the coin has an RSI greater than 30 in a timeframe of 15 minutes, indicating that it didn't reach oversold conditions yet, so there is still room for a further price drop.
On Coinrule, you can launch the strategy on real market conditions, setting up multiple sequential sell orders. The strategy would keep selling while the price stays below the MA(100). In that case, it's advisable to set low amounts for the sell orders. the position will grow gradually while the downtrend intensifies. Set a minimum time interval between the sell orders will also help to have control over the overall position size.
The Buy Condition - Exit
The bot connects to each trade a stop loss and a take profit. The percentages are optimized for short term trades on mid-cap coins. You can adjust the percentages depending on the specific coin you are trading. A ratio of 1:1.5 between the stop loss and the take profit could work as the strategy trades in the same direction of the trend.
Stop loss at 3% from the entry price
Take profit at 2% from the entry price
A slightly larger stop loss allows tolerating more volatility to reduce the case of stops triggering when it shouldn't.
