Patient Trendfollower (7)(alpha)

6 Mar 2020

Patient Trendfollower consists of 21 and 55 EMA, Commodity Channel Index and Supertrend indicator. It confirms a trend and gives you a signal on a pullback. Original creation worked on 1h EURUSD chart.



►Long setup:
• 21 EMA is above 55 EMA, which is above the Supertrend indicator.
• Commodity Channel Index is an oscillator, which prints into the chart if extreme levels are reached. Green is for a level above 100 or below -100, red is above 140 or below -140 and black is above 180 or below -180.[1]
• If 21 EMA > 55EMA > Supertrend and an oversold signal appear, you can buy into the trend.
• When backtesting on 1h EURUSD, profit target 400 pips worked best with a stop-loss below Supertrend's bottom and the size of your spread.
• A picture shows two valid entries.

[1]: This part still malfunctions and shows red dots over some green ones. It is important to disable red ones in the settings to see green ones.

Some more long signals:



Some short signals:



►Backtesting data with default settings and trading only green CCI signals with mentioned risk management strategy:
• 212 closed trades
• 58.96% profitable with average win trade 348 USD and average loss trade 263 USD when only green signals are followed.
• Profit factor 1.903, Sharpee 0.792
• 20 bars is average for all trades, short trades were 18 bars long on average.

With given data, you can see the strategy is profitable by itself. However, original risk management settings do work only on 1h charts of EURUSD and would need to be adjusted for other instruments based on average volatility.

Even though the profitability is low, you can increase your odds by a great margin, if you properly use price action (impulsive and corrective moves, patterns, bar analysis), if you trade when major exchanges are open, you may also use wave analysis such as Elliot Waves or Market Profiles to predict whether the next day might be a trending day. My backtesting program didn't consider these ideas.

Unfortunately, I won't be making backtesting strategy public with it anytime soon, because it still has some parts that do not work. I am ok with that since I understand the code and know what does malfunction and how. Then, there are parts which I am not sure how to fix yet. This is why the indicator is still considered alpha.

In the future when a strategy is published, you will also be able to set your own overbought/oversold values without entering the code itself and probably some other features. But I am not in a hurry for that. You can give me feedback on UX and try to figure out the best setups for other symbols, it might help to improve the automatic testing script when I know what I should achieve. My main point is to make this public for friends who can already be using it on EURUSD at least.

Close doesn't always have to be 400 pips, you might want to close on a logical level such as strong resistance or a trendline too.

Thanks to:
• everget for providing Supertrend solution.
• Satik FX who hand-tested the system by hand and reported results in this article. He is my main inspiration for creating the complete indicator as one because I want to be able to show and hide it with a single click. My future scripts will also work as a whole strategy each by itself.
• The number in the script's name comes from Satik's numbering. A mentioned article was his seventh shared strategy.