MARA / mNAV=1 (x)

What it does
This script overlays two signals on the MARA chart:

mNAV=1 fair-value line — the MARA price implied by Bitcoin NAV:
mNAV1 = (BTC price × BTC holdings) / MARA shares

Premium/Discount ratio — how far MARA trades vs. its NAV fair value:
Ratio = Close / mNAV1 (1.00 = fair; >1 = premium; <1 = discount)

Inputs

Shares outstanding (default: 370,460,000)

BTC holdings (official or estimated; you can roll forward +25 BTC/day if you want)

BTC symbol used for pricing (e.g., BTCUSD, BTCUSDT, BTCUSDTPERP)

How to use

When Price < mNAV=1 and Ratio < 1.00 → MARA trades at a discount to BTC NAV (potential mean-reversion if BTC is stable).

When Price > mNAV=1 and Ratio > 1.00 → premium (premium often compresses during BTC chop/weakness).

Rule of thumb (with ~53k BTC and 370.46M shares): +$1,000 BTC ≈ +$0.14 on the mNAV=1 line.

Visuals

Blue line = mNAV=1 (fair value) plotted directly on the MARA chart.

Purple line = Ratio (×) on a separate right-hand scale centered around 1.00.

Optional shading: green when Ratio > 1.05 (+5% premium), red when Ratio < 0.95 (−5% discount).

Alerts (suggested)

Premium > +5%: Ratio > 1.05

Discount < −5%: Ratio < 0.95

Notes

This is a proxy for NAV parity; it assumes your BTC holdings input is correct (official last report or your estimate).

Choice of BTC symbol matters; use the feed that best matches your workflow (spot, perp, or index).

The ratio is most informative when BTC is range-bound; during fast BTC moves MARA can overshoot temporarily.