FX Rate Bias US vs EU 2Y

FX Rate Bias – US vs EU (2Y)

This indicator implements a rate-differential based macro bias model using the 2-year government bond yield spread between the United States and Germany.

The methodology focuses on the short end of the yield curve, which primarily reflects central bank expectations rather than long-term inflation or risk premiums.
By applying light smoothing and a zero-line regime framework, the script classifies market conditions into USD rate advantage or EUR rate advantage states.

Calculation logic:

Retrieves daily 2Y sovereign yields for the US and Germany

Computes the yield differential (US − DE)

Applies optional smoothing to reduce noise

Uses the zero line as a regime boundary to define relative monetary bias

Practical use:
This tool is designed to provide directional macro context for FX analysis, particularly for EURUSD.
It helps traders align technical setups with prevailing interest rate expectations, and is not intended as a standalone signal or timing indicator.