Probabilistic Panel - COMPLETE VERSION

📘 Probabilistic Panel — User Manual
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INTRODUCTION
The Probabilistic Panel is an advanced TradingView indicator that merges multiple technical-analysis components to provide a probabilistic evaluation of market direction. It is composed of several sections that assess trend, volume, price zones, support and resistance, multiple timeframes, and candle distribution.
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PANEL STRUCTURE
1. HEADER
• PROBABILISTIC PANEL: Indicator name.
• FULL VERSION: Indicates that all functionalities are enabled.
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2. GENERAL INFORMATION
• ASSET: Displays the asset symbol being analyzed.
• LIMITS: Shows score thresholds for classifying setups (A+, B, C).
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3. DIRECTION PROBABILITIES
• PROB: Displays probability of upward movement (upPct) and downward movement (downPct) in percentage.
o Importance: Indicates the direction with the highest probability based on weighted factors.
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4. CONTINUATION BIAS
• BIAS: Shows the probability of continuation of the current trend (intrProbCont).
o Importance: Evaluates whether the market is likely to continue in the same direction.
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5. MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS (MTF)
• MTF: Shows trend direction across multiple timeframes (1D, 1H, 15M, 5M, 1M) using arrows (↑ uptrend, ↓ downtrend, → sideways).
o Importance: Helps identify convergence or divergence between timeframes.
• ALIGNED MTF: Displays the percentage of alignment between timeframes.
o Importance: Higher alignment indicates stronger trends.
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6. VOLUME
• VOLUME: Indicates whether volume is “INCREASING”, “DECREASING”, or “STABLE.”
o Importance: Increasing volume confirms trend strength.
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7. TECHNICAL INDICATORS
• RSI/ROC: Displays RSI (Relative Strength Index) and ROC (Rate of Change).
o Importance:
 RSI > 65 → Overbought
 RSI < 35 → Oversold
 ROC → Momentum strength indicator
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8. PRICE ZONE
• ZONE: Classifies current price as “PREMIUM” (above average), “DISCOUNT” (below average), or “EQUILIBRIUM.”
o Importance: Helps identify buying/selling opportunities based on mean-reversion logic.
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9. CANDLE ANALYSIS
• AMPLITUDE: Shows current candle size in percentage and ticks.
o Importance: Candles above minimum amplitude threshold are considered trade-valid.
• FORMATION: Classifies candle as:
o HIGH INDECISION
o TOP REJECTION
o BOTTOM REJECTION
o CONVICTION
o MIXED
o Importance: Reflects market sentiment and psychology.
• WICKS: Displays upper and lower wick size in percentage.
o Importance: Longer wicks suggest rejection or indecision.
• RATIO: Ratio between total wick size and candle body.
o Importance: High ratio = indecision; low ratio = conviction.
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10. TRENDS
• AMPLITUDE TREND: Indicates if amplitude is “INCREASING,” “DECREASING,” or “STABLE.”
o Importance: Increasing amplitude may signal rising volatility.
• CONVICTION TREND: Indicates recent candle conviction:
o STRONG UP
o STRONG DOWN
o INDECISIVE
o MIXED
o Importance: Measures the strength of recent candles.
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11. PROBABILITY DIFFERENCE (DIF PROB)
• Shows the percentage difference between upward and downward probabilities, classified as:
o EXCELLENT: Very favorable
o GOOD: Significant
o MEDIUM: Moderate (avoid entering)
o MARKET LOSING STRENGTH: Small difference (avoid entering)
o UNSTABLE MARKET: Very small difference (do not trade)
o Importance: Higher difference = more directional clarity.
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12. CONFIRMATIONS
• Shows how many consecutive confirmations of the current signal were achieved relative to the configured requirement.
o Importance: More confirmations increase reliability.
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13. SCORE & CLASSIFICATION
• SCORE: Final score from 0 to 100, calculated based on multiple factors.
o Higher scores = better setups.
• CLASSIFICATION: Setup categorized as:
o A+ SETUP
o B SETUP
o C SETUP
o DO NOT TRADE
o Importance: Defines whether conditions are favorable.
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14. ACTION
• ACTION: Suggests “BUY,” “SELL,” or “WAIT.”
o Importance: Final actionable signal.
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DECISION LOGIC
The indicator uses a weighted combination of multiple factors:
1. Trend (wTrend): Based on the price relative to EMA50.
2. Volume (wVol): Based on recent volume vs. its average.
3. Zone (wZona): Based on price position within recent price range.
4. Support/Resistance (wSR): Based on strength of S/R levels.
5. MTF (wMTF): Timeframe alignment.
6. Distribution (wDist): Distribution of bullish, bearish, and neutral candles.
The final score integrates:
• Probability of upward movement
• Continuation bias
• MTF conflict
• Moving-average alignment
• Volume
• Extreme RSI conditions
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FALSE-SIGNAL FILTERS
• Close-Only Mode: Updates calculations only on candle close.
• Minimum Candle Size: Ignores very small candles.
• Consecutive Confirmations: Requires repeated signal confirmation.
• Minimum Probability Difference: Enforces a minimum separation between bullish and bearish probabilities.
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CONCLUSION
The Probabilistic Panel is a comprehensive tool that integrates multiple technical-analysis dimensions to deliver more reliable trading signals. Parameters must be adjusted according to the asset and timeframe.
Remember: no indicator is infallible.
Always combine it with risk management and additional confirmations.