Modified Mannarino Market Risk Indicator & Bubbles

8 Feb 2022

Modified Mannarino Market Risk Indicator

MMRI = DXY * 10Y Yield
MMMRI = MMRI * (Debt/GDP)

• Color Indicators
  Green ~ Low Risk
  Yellow - Mod Risk
  Red - High Risk
  Purple - Extreme Risk
  

*


Bubbles Formula (MMMRI_DK)

DXY*(10Y + FED Rate)* (Shiller P/E Ratio) * (Warren Buffet Indicator)*(Debt/GDP) /1.61

Similar to the Shiller P/E Ratio - you need to look back to see where the bubbles were. The difference between the Dot Com bubble and subsequent ones is that we now have QE which is why I included the FED Rate + 10Y.


*Color Indicators
Green ~ Low Risk
Yellow - Mod Risk
Red - High Risk
Purple - Extreme Risk


Future Bubbles Formula (MMMRI_DK_Fut)

DXY*(10Y + Future FED Rate)* (Shiller P/E Ratio) * (Warren Buffet Indicator)*(Debt/GDP) /1.61

Assumes that the 10Y is fixed but what is important is that you will get an idea on when the system may pop.

3 Jan 2023

Catatan Rilis

Bug Fix