ProbRSI Adaptive SPY and QQQ Swing One Hour Strategy

Summary in one paragraph
A probabilistic RSI engine for large cap ETFs and index names on intraday and swing timeframes. It converts ATR scaled returns into a 0 to 100 probability line, adapts its smoothing from path efficiency, and gates flips with simple percent levels. It is original because it fuses three pieces that traders rarely combine in one signal line: ATR normalized return probability, curvature compression, and per bar adaptive EMA. Add it to a clean chart, keep the default one hour signal on QQQ, and read the entry and exit markers generated by the strategy. For conservative alerts select on bar close.

Scope and intent
• Markets. Major ETFs and large cap equities. Index futures. Liquid crypto. Major FX pairs
• Timeframes. One minute to daily. Defaults to one hour for swing pace
• Default demo used in this publication. SPY/QQQ on one hour
• Purpose. Reduce false flips by adapting to path efficiency and by gating long and short separately
• Limits. This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles only

Originality and usefulness
• Unique fusion. Logistic probability of ATR scaled returns with arcsine pre transform, optional curvature compression, and per bar adaptive EMA steered by an efficiency ratio
• Failure mode addressed. Fast whips in congestion and late entries after spikes
• Testability. Each component has a named input and can be tuned directly. Entry names Long and Short are visible in the list of trades
• Portable yardstick. ATR scaled return is a common unit across symbols and venues
• Protected rationale. The code stays protected to preserve implementation details of the adaptive engine and curvature assist while the method and usage are fully explained here for community review

Method overview in plain language
You convert raw returns into a probability scale, adapt the smoothing to the straightness of the path, and only allow flips when a simple gate is satisfied. The probability line crosses its own EMA to generate signals. When the cross happens below a short gate or above a long gate, the flip is allowed. Otherwise it is ignored.

Base measures
• Return basis. Close minus prior close normalized by ATR, then arcsine to damp large steps. ATR window is set by ATR length. Sensitivity is adjusted by an ATR scale input
• Probability map. A logistic function maps the normalized return to 0 to 1 which becomes 0 to 100 after scaling

Components
• Probability core. Logistic probability of ATR scaled returns. Higher values imply upside pressure. Smoothed by an adaptive EMA
• Curvature assist optional. A curvature proxy compresses extreme spikes toward neutral. Useful after news bars. Weight controls strength
• Efficiency ratio. A path efficiency score from 0 to 1 extends the smoothing length during noisy paths and shortens it during directional paths
• Signal line. An EMA of the probability line creates the reference for cross up and cross down
• Gates. Two simple percent levels define when long and short flips are allowed

Fusion rule
• The adaptive EMA length is computed as a linear map between a minimum and a maximum bound based on one minus efficiency
• If curvature assist is enabled the probability is adjusted by a small counter spike term
• Final probability is compared to its EMA

Signal rule
• Long. A long entry is suggested when probability crosses above the signal line and the current probability is above the Long gate level
• Short. A short entry is suggested when probability crosses below the signal line and the current probability is below the Short gate level
• Exit and flip. When an opposite entry condition appears the current position is closed and a new position opens in the opposite direction

What you will see on the chart
• Strategy markers on suggestion bars. Orders named Long and Short
• Exit marker when the opposite signal closes the open side
• No table by design. All tuning lives in Inputs for a clean chart

Inputs with guidance

Market TF
• Symbol. Series used for oscillator computation. Use the instrument you trade or a close proxy
• Signal timeframe. Timeframe where the oscillator is evaluated. Leave blank to follow the chart

Core
• Price source. Series used for returns. Typical choice close
• Base length. Fallback EMA length used when adaptation is off. Typical range 20 to 200. Larger smooths more
• ATR length. Window for ATR that scales returns. Typical range 10 to 30. Larger normalizes more and lowers sensitivity
• Logit sharpness. Steepness of the logistic link. Typical range 1 to 8. Raising it reacts more to the same input
• ATR scale. Extra divisor on ATR. Typical range 0.5 to 2. Smaller is more sensitive
• Signal length. EMA of the probability line. Typical range 5 to 20. Larger gives fewer flips
• Long gate. Allow long flips only above this level. Typical range 20 to 40
• Short gate. Allow short flips only below this level. Typical range 20 to 40

Adaptive
• Adaptive smoothing. If on, the efficiency ratio controls the per bar EMA length
• Min effective length. Lower bound of adaptive EMA. Typical range 5 to 50
• Max effective length. Upper bound of adaptive EMA. Typical range 50 to 300
• Efficiency window. Window for efficiency ratio. Typical range 30 to 100

Shape Assist
• Curvature influence. If on, extreme spikes are nudged toward neutral
• Curvature weight. Strength of compression. Typical range 0.1 to 0.3


Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital. 25000
• Base currency. USD
• request.security lookahead off everywhere
• Commission. 0.03 percent
• Slippage. 5 ticks
• Default order size method percent of equity with value 3 for realistic testing
• Pyramiding 0
• Process orders on close ON
• Bar magnifier OFF
• Recalculate after order is filled OFF
• Calc on every tick OFF

Realism and responsible publication
• No performance claims. Past results never guarantee future outcomes
• Shapes can move while a bar forms and settle on close
• Strategies use standard candles for signals and orders only

Honest limitations and failure modes
• Economic releases and thin liquidity can break assumptions behind the curvature assist
• Gap heavy symbols may prefer a longer ATR window
• Very quiet regimes can reduce signal contrast. Consider higher gates or longer signal length
• Session time follows the exchange of the chart and can change symbol to symbol
• Symbol sensitivity is expected. Use the gates and length inputs to find stable settings
• Past results never guarantee future outcomes

Open source reuse and credits
• None

Mode
Public protected. Source is hidden while access is free. Implementation detail remains private. Method and use are fully disclosed here

Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. You are responsible for your decisions. Test on historical data and in simulation before any live use. Use realistic costs.