CoinsKid Crystal Ball

CoinsKid Crystal Ball – Global M2 Money Supply Risk Forecast Indicator
A Liquidity-Driven Forecasting Tool for Risk Assets

Based on original work by KrystianHutyra
Enhanced with advanced time-shift functionality and overlay capabilities.

The CoinsKid Crystal Ball is a custom TradingView indicator designed to anticipate future trends in risk assets such as Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and other markets sensitive to liquidity flows. The indicator is built upon the global M2 money supply from major economies, adjusted by their respective exchange rates against the US dollar.

By tracking the expansion and contraction of M2 liquidity across global financial hubs, this indicator provides a forward-looking signal for risk-on and risk-off conditions. Historical observations suggest a 70-day lag in the impact of global M2 changes on risk assets, making this tool valuable for traders seeking early signals of market shifts.

Calculation Formula

The indicator aggregates the M2 money supply from the world’s leading economies, converting them into USD terms for a unified measurement. The formula is:
Global M2 in USD=(CNM2×CNYUSD)+USM2+(EUM2×EURUSD)+(JPM2×JPYUSD)+(GBM2×GBPUSD)

Where:

CNM2 = China’s M2 Money Supply
USM2 = United States M2 Money Supply
EUM2 = Eurozone M2 Money Supply
JPM2 = Japan’s M2 Money Supply
GBM2 = United Kingdom’s M2 Money Supply
CNYUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD = Exchange rates to convert M2 values into USD



This composite metric creates a global liquidity benchmark, offering insight into whether liquidity is expanding or contracting across major economies.

Key Features

Liquidity Forecasting for Risk Assets
Provides a leading indicator of market risk conditions, predicting shifts in Bitcoin, the stock market, and other speculative assets.
Helps traders understand when liquidity expansion might fuel risk-on rallies or when contraction could signal risk-off environments.
Customizable Styling & Offset Options
Users can modify the visual appearance of the plotted line to align with their preferences.
The indicator includes an offset setting, allowing traders to shift the forecast forward or backward for alignment with price action.
Multi-Timeframe Support
Works across 1H, 4H, 8H, Daily, 5-Day, Weekly, and Monthly timeframes.
Can be configured to different preset periods for analysis at various levels of market structure.
70-Day Lag Adjustment
Historical data suggests that M2 liquidity changes impact risk assets with a 70-day delay.
This insight helps traders position themselves ahead of market moves based on expected liquidity inflows and outflows.


How It Works in Trading


Rising Global M2: Suggests increasing liquidity, which often supports bullish trends in risk assets like Bitcoin and equities.
Falling Global M2: Indicates liquidity contraction, often preceding market corrections or risk-off periods.
Crossovers & Divergences: Comparing the indicator’s trend to price action can highlight potential early warning signals for trend reversals.


Use Cases

Crypto Traders: Identify liquidity-driven bullish and bearish phases in Bitcoin and altcoins.
Stock Market Investors: Assess broader liquidity conditions affecting equity markets.
Macro Analysts: Monitor global M2 trends to anticipate financial cycles.