1. Inputs and Data Sources The script pulls data for the following financial metrics using TradingView's request.security function:
CBOE:VIX (Volatility Index): A measure of market volatility. MOVE Index: A measure of bond market volatility (or Treasury volatility). BAMLH0A0HYM2 (High-Yield Spread): The spread between high-yield corporate bonds and Treasury yields. BAMLC0A0CM (Credit Spread): The spread for investment-grade corporate bonds. Each of these metrics represents a key aspect of financial conditions:
VIX: Equity market risk. MOVE: Bond market risk. High-Yield Spread and Credit Spread: Perception of risk in corporate debt.
2. Z-Score Calculation A z-score standardizes each metric to show how far it deviates from its average over a specified period (lookback = 160, or 160 days):
Positive z-scores indicate the metric is higher than average. Negative z-scores indicate the metric is lower than average. The formula for the z-score:
Z-Score = Metric − Mean Standard Deviation Z-Score = Standard Deviation Metric−Mean
3. Combined Z-Score The script combines the four individual z-scores into a single Composite Z-Score, equally weighted across the metrics:
Combined Z-Score = (Z VIX + Z MOVE + Z High-Yield Spread + Z Credit Spread) / 4 This Combined Z-Score provides an overall measure of financial conditions:
Positive combined z-scores indicate tighter or riskier financial conditions. Negative combined z-scores indicate looser or less risky financial conditions.
4. Visual Elements on the Chart A. Colorful Lines: Individual Z-Scores Each of the four metrics is plotted as a separate line:
Red: Z-score of the VIX. Green: Z-score of the MOVE index. Orange: Z-score of the high-yield spread. Purple: Z-score of the credit spread. These lines show how each metric contributes to the overall financial conditions. For example:
A rising red line means increasing equity market volatility (risk). A rising green line means increasing bond market volatility (risk). B. Blue Line: Combined Z-Score The blue line represents the Combined Z-Score. It aggregates the individual z-scores into a single measure:
A rising blue line suggests financial conditions are tightening (greater risk across markets). A falling blue line suggests financial conditions are loosening (lower risk across markets). C. Red and Green Background: Z-Score Regions Red Background: When the Combined Z-Score is positive (>0), it indicates riskier or tighter financial conditions. Green Background: When the Combined Z-Score is negative (<0), it indicates less risky or looser financial conditions. This background coloring helps visually distinguish periods of riskier financial conditions from less risky ones.
5. Purpose of the Visualization This indicator provides a comprehensive view of financial conditions across multiple asset classes:
Traders can use it to gauge the level of systemic market stress. Investors can use it to assess when risk is elevated (positive z-scores) or subdued (negative z-scores). It helps in decision-making for strategies that depend on market volatility or risk appetite. Summary of What You See: Colorful Lines (Red, Green, Orange, Purple): Individual z-scores for each metric (VIX, MOVE, high-yield spread, credit spread). Blue Line: The aggregated Combined Z-Score that summarizes financial conditions. Red and Green Background: Red: Tight or risky financial conditions (Combined Z-Score > 0). Green: Loose or low-risk financial conditions (Combined Z-Score < 0). This visualization provides a multi-dimensional view of financial conditions at a glance, helping to identify periods of high or low risk in the markets.
Dengan semangat TradingView yang sesungguhnya, penulis skrip ini telah menerbitkannya sebagai sumber terbuka, sehingga para trader dapat memahami dan memverifikasinya. Hormat untuk penulisnya! Anda dapat menggunakannya secara gratis, namun penggunaan kembali kode ini dalam publikasi diatur oleh Tata Tertib. Anda dapat memfavoritkannya untuk digunakan pada chart
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.