Probabilistic Trend Oscillator

8 Nov

** MACD PLOTS ARE NOT PART OF THE INDICATOR IT IS FOR COMPARSION**
The "Probabilistic Trend Oscillator" is a technical indicator designed to measure trend strength and direction by analyzing price behavior relative to a moving average over both long-term and short-term periods. This indicator incorporates several innovative features, including probabilistic trend detection, enhanced strength scaling, and percentile-based thresholds for identifying potential trend reversals.

Key Components
Inputs:

The indicator allows users to customize several key parameters:
EMA Length defines the period for the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which serves as a baseline to classify trend direction.
Long and Short Term Lengths provide customizable periods for analyzing trend strength over different timeframes.
Signal Line Length is used to smooth the trend strength data, helping users spot more reliable trend signals.
Extreme Value Lookback Length controls how far back to look when calculating percentile thresholds, which are used to identify overbought and oversold zones.
Trend Classification:

The indicator categorizes price behavior into four conditions:
Green: Price closes above the open and is also above the EMA, suggesting a strong upward trend.
Red: Price closes below the open but is above the EMA, indicating weaker upward pressure.
Green1: Price closes above the open but remains below the EMA, representing weak upward movement.
Red1: Price closes below the open and the EMA, signaling a strong downward trend.
Trend Strength Calculation:

The script calculates long-term and short-term trend values based on the frequency of these trend conditions, normalizing them to create probabilistic scores.
It then measures the difference between the short-term and long-term trend values, creating a metric that reflects the intensity of the current trend. This comparison provides insight into whether the trend is strengthening or weakening.
Enhanced Trend Strength:

To emphasize significant movements, the trend strength metric is scaled by the average absolute price change (distance between close and open prices). This creates an "enhanced trend strength" value that highlights periods with high momentum.
Users can toggle between two variations of trend strength:
Absolute Trend Strength is a straightforward measure of the trend's force.
Relative Trend Strength accounts for deviations between short term and long term values, focusing on how current price action differs from a long term behavior.
Percentile-Based Thresholds:

The indicator calculates percentile thresholds over the specified lookback period to mark extreme values:
The 97th and 3rd percentiles act as overbought and oversold zones, respectively, indicating potential reversal points.
Intermediate levels (75th and 25th percentiles) are added to give additional context for overbought or oversold conditions, creating a probabilistic range.
Visualization:

The selected trend strength value (either absolute or relative) is plotted in orange.
Overbought (green) and oversold (red) percentiles are marked with dashed lines and filled in blue, highlighting potential reversal zones.
The signal line—a smoothed EMA of the trend strength—is plotted in white, helping users to confirm trend changes.
A gray horizontal line at zero acts as a baseline, further clarifying the strength of upward vs. downward trends.
Summary
This indicator provides a flexible, probabilistic approach to trend detection, allowing users to monitor trend strength with customizable thresholds and lookback periods. By combining percentile-based thresholds with enhanced trend strength scaling, it offers insights into market reversals and momentum shifts, making it a valuable tool for both trend-following and counter-trend trading strategies.