Moving Average Dispersion Index w/ Z-Score (Adjusted MADI-Z)

14 Jan

Overview

The Adjusted MADI-Z indicator is a custom indicator that looks to decipher trends and consolidations based on the clustering and dispersion of Moving Averages. It calculates a z-score based on the dispersion of various exponentially weighted moving averages to identify trends and consolidation. The z-score is then adjusted using a logistic function to map it between 0-100.

How can it be used?

- Identify trends and consolidation - Values above 80 indicate a strong trend while values below 20 show consolidation
- Gauge trend strength - Higher positive values suggest a stronger uptrend while lower negative values indicate a stronger downtrend
- Generate trading signals - Crossovers of key levels can act as entry/exit triggers
- Smooth noise in price action - The adjusted z-score filters out market noise

Default Values

- ma5_len = 5
- ma10_len = 10
- ma50_len = 50
- ma200_len = 200
- lookback_period = 100

Strategies

The Adjusted MADI-Z can be used for trend-following strategies across various timeframes. Specific strategies include:

- Trend trading - Enter long on crossover above 80, exit on crossover below 80. Reverse for short trades.
- Range trading - Enter short on crossover below 20, exit on crossover above 20. Reverse for long trades.
- Identifying pullbacks - Temporary moves below 80 during uptrends and above 20 during downtrends can act as retracement entry points.

Rationale

By adjusting the z-score output of the standard MADI using a logistic function, the indicator becomes bounded and easier to interpret for trading purposes. The customized moving average lengths also allow tuning the indicator to particular assets and timeframes.

Interpretation

- Above 80 - Strong uptrend
- 70 to 80 - Moderate uptrend
- 50 to 70 - Weak uptrend
- 30 to 50 - Range-bound consolidation
- 20 to 30 - Weak downtrend
- Below 20 - Strong downtrend

Values below 15 or above 85 represent extremes outside two standard deviations.