Fractal Trend Detector [Skyrexio]

12 Nov

Introduction
Fractal Trend Detector [Skyrexio] leverages the combination of Williams fractals and Alligator Indicator to help traders to understand with the high probability what is the current trend: bullish or bearish. It visualizes the potential uptrend with the coloring bars in green, downtrend - in red color. Indicator also contains two additional visualizations, the strong uptrend and downtrend as the green and red zones and the white line - trend invalidation level (more information in "Methodology and it's justification" paragraph)

Features

1. Optional strong up and downtrends visualization: with the specified parameter in settings user can add/hide the green and red zones of the strong up and downtrends.
   
2. Optional trend invalidation level visualization: with the specified parameter in settings user can add/hide the white line which shows the current trend invalidation price.
   
3. Alerts: user can set up the alert and have notifications when uptrend/downtrend has been started, strong uptrend/downtrend started.
   

Methodology and it's justification
In this script we apply the concept of trend given by Bill Williams in his book "Trading Chaos". This approach leverages the Alligator and Fractals in conjunction. Let's briefly explain these two components.

The Williams Alligator, created by Bill Williams, is a technical analysis tool used to identify trends and potential market reversals. It consists of three moving averages, called the jaw, teeth, and lips, which represent different time periods:

• Jaw (Blue Line): The slowest line, showing a 13-period smoothed moving average shifted 8 bars forward.
  
• Teeth (Red Line): The medium-speed line, an 8-period smoothed moving average shifted 5 bars forward.
  
• Lips (Green Line): The fastest line, a 5-period smoothed moving average shifted 3 bars forward.
  

When the lines are spread apart and aligned, the "alligator" is "awake," indicating a strong trend. When the lines intertwine, the "alligator" is "sleeping," signaling a non-trending or range-bound market. This indicator helps traders identify when to enter or avoid trades.

Williams Fractals, introduced by Bill Williams, are a technical analysis tool used to identify potential reversal points on a price chart. A fractal is a series of at least five consecutive bars where the middle bar has the highest high (for a up fractal) or the lowest low (for a down fractal), compared to the two bars on either side.

Key Points:

• Up fractal: Formed when the middle bar shows a higher high than the two preceding and two following bars, signaling a potential turning point downward.
  
• Down fractal: Formed when the middle bar has a lower low than the two surrounding bars, indicating a potential upward reversal.
  

Fractals are often used with other indicators to confirm trend direction or reversal, helping traders make more informed trading decisions.

How we can use its combination? Let's explain the uptrend example. The up fractal breakout to the upside can be interpret as bullish sign, there is a high probability that uptrend has just been started. It can be explained as following: the up fractal created is the potential change in market's behavior. A lot of traders made a decision to sell and it created the pullback with the fractal at the top. But if price is able to reach the fractal's top and break it, this is a high probability sign that market "changed his opinion" and bullish trend has been started. The moment of breaking is the potential changing to the uptrend. Here is another one important point, this breakout shall happen above the Alligator's teeth line. If not, this crossover doesn't count and the downtrend potentially remaining. The inverted logic is true for the down fractals and downtrend.

According to this methodology we received the high probability up and downtrend changes, but we can even add it. If current trend established by the indicator as the uptrend and alligator's lines have the following order: lips is higher than teeth, teeth is higher than jaw, script count it as a strong uptrend and start print the green zone - zone between lips and jaw. It can be used as a high probability support of the current bull market. The inverted logic can be used for bearish trend and red zones: if lips is lower than teeth and teeth is lower than jaw it's interpreted by the indicator as a strong down trend.

Indicator also has the trend invalidation line (white line). If current bar is green and market condition is interpreted by the script as an uptrend you will see the invalidation line below current price. This is the price level which shall be crossed by the price to change up trend to down trend according to algorithm. This level is recalculated on every candle. The inverted logic is valid for downtrend.

How to use indicator

1. Apply it to desired chart and time frame. It works on every time frame.
   
2. Setup the settings with enabling/disabling visualization of strong up/downtrend zones and trend invalidation line. "Show Strong Bullish/Bearish Trends" and "Show Trend Invalidation Price" checkboxes in the settings. By default they are turned on.
   
3. Analyze the price action. Indicator colored candle in green if it's more likely that current state is uptrend, in red if downtrend has the high probability to be now. Green zones between two lines showing if current uptrend is likely to be strong. This zone can be used as a high probability support on the uptrend. The red zone show high probability of strong downtrend and can be used as a resistance. White line is showing the level where uptrend or downtrend is going be invalidated according to indicator's algorithm. If current bar is green invalidation line will be below the current price, if red - above the current price.
   
4. Set up the alerts if it's needed. Indicator has four custom alerts called "Uptrend has been started" when current bar closed as green and the previous was not green, "Downtrend has been started" when current bar closed red and the previous was not red, "Uptrend became strong" if script started printing the green zone "Downtrend became strong" if script started printing the red zone.
   

Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test indicators before live implementation.