WU Sahm Recession Indicator

25 Okt 2023

The Sahm Recession Indicator devised by Economist Claudia Sahm is a rather insightful tool that captures the onset of recessions by utilizing unemployment data, which can provide more real-time insights compared to quarterly GDP reports. If the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the unemployment rate exceeds the minimum unemployment rate of the previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points, it indicates a high likelihood of a recession.

This script allows you to visualize this indicator and set up alerts for when this criterion indicates that a recession could be coming.

10 Nov 2023

Catatan Rilis

Will not display on any other time frame than Monthly. I added also a yellow line when the signal is exactly on the threshold value.

4 Agu

Catatan Rilis

Due to the use of the function ta.lowest(unrate3M, 12), which looked back only 11 months since it included the current one, the previous version was not fully accurate. I have fixed this issue.

5 Sep

Catatan Rilis

Can be switch to a Threshold of 0.61% instead of the 0.5% used by Claudia Sahm.