XRP - Defining A 4-year Cycle Transition - Third Macro Update!

3 Jul 2020

This is a third in a series of a developing Macro Cycle based analysis of XRP/USD. On this iteration, I am taking a more granular view of the point of transition in the 4-year cycles (note this doesn't have to fit 4 years perfectly that is more of a normative average). In this updated chart I have added two resistance curves (Orange dotted curves) that play off the broader macro S-curve value and Macro support curve (bright purple). As the orange resistance curves converge upon the support value of the Purple level we can see the final Distribution into Accumulation noting the beginning of a new 4-year cycle. Please note that at the end of the orange resistance curves the price flips from being resisted to support (this is noted by the yellow arcs that show the final accumulation before going on to retrace the previous bull run and setup for a new ATH). These are interesting times, there are powerful contrarian views to what I have posted in this chart. It will be up to each of us to reason through these muddy waters, just don't forget to manage your risk and know what you're investing in. For me personally, I lean more towards a 70% retrace of the previous bear market then brief (couple months) redistribution and accumulation to setup for a test of the ATH (all-time high). Please note my chart also provides for the lower levels of 12 and 6 cents, so that is still technically in play. How I determine the probability of reaching down to the 12 and 6 cent levels is to note how the price moves along the yellow arc at the end of the orange resistance curve. If the price flips from being resisted to supported then imo we have better odds at an imminent bull phase, however if we fall out of that key zone with force and close on daily then I am adjusting my expectations towards the 12 and 6 cent lows. I hope this has been an interesting read, thanks for your time. Hodl on brothers and sisters, you won't want to be asleep at the wheel when XRP wakes up.

In service,


Not financial advice, always DYOR

8 Jul 2020

Catatan

We are now at the key level of the S-Curve. If we get consolidation on this level, then things could get very interesting in about a week or so, could be sooner as well. Stay level headed and keep your risk management at the front and center.

9 Jul 2020

Catatan

Price just broke the S-Curve macro resistance level. This is where things get interesting! Possible consolidation here, but strength looks like it has momentum. Manage your risks everyone, move your stops in close now!

2 Agu 2020

Catatan

This view has been validated, the new market cycle is in. This can only be invalidated by a lower low than the previous market cycle. I will go ahead and post a new chart updating this idea.