Today I wanted to share with everyone a potential time line as to when XRP might see some price movement. It’s no surprise, i’m seeing it everywhere and you are too, the bottom is expected to reach $0.12-15.
My guess is a candle closure in the $0.15 range and a nasty ‘wick-fish’ down to $0.125. The question is when? Obviously nobody can predict this however what we can do is speculate, plan ahead and get ready as next bull run is going to be absolutely magic especially to those that are buying at these prices!
This bear market has lasted 943 days and XRP has retraced 96% from the all time high of roughly $3.50 back in January 2018. This range matches the previous cycle seen back in late 2013 to mid 2014 which had a 96% retrace and then there was also an 86% retrace that occurred throughout all of 2015.
The 2017 bull run had a 77,630% increase from the previous all time low. I’ve had a few friends say based on the ‘Law of Diminishing Returns’, XPR won’t have the same increase as seen back in 2017 however I disagree. I suspect after this next bull run, we will then start to see the ‘Law of Diminishing Returns’ playout.
What we can all see was that in 2017, XRP had two massive moon-shots. The first occurred in Q2 of 2017 and the second occurred in Q4. I remember FOMO was in full effect in Q4 2017 which could have been why XRP saw such an additional increase in price. As we all remember Bitcoin went parabolic in the mainstream media with many taking out second mortgages, over leveraging themselves, dumping their life savings into this market however not understanding the cyclical nature of the crypto-market (what goes up goes down). In order for XRP to see a continuation in price that same FOMO needs to be present otherwise we might only see that Golden Ratio be the peak of this next bull run (1.618=$27-30).
Going back to the point of this post, when will we see the bottom? There are 213 days remaining in this falling wedge (7 bars/months). Using historical data, many falling wedges don’t go all the way till the closure.
My guess is that we will see the bottom reached sometime in January 2020 based on historical bar pattern from 2017. If we copy the previous bull run bar-pattern and place it at the possible bottom at $0.1255, we can see that January and February will retest the downward trend-line before making a massive breakout from March to May, with the potential for a parabolic, FOMO move in December 2020 and January 2021 taking XRP to $113-114.
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As we can all see the price of XRP has met that support trendline and held it quite nicely so far. Nobody could have seen the catalyst coming though (coronavirus)...the question now is, what will be the bull-run catalyst? My guess? A CURE.
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