I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “If you are not in a position then opening a short at $6,300 - $6,315 provides favorable risk:reward. A stop loss slightly above $6,400 makes a long of sense” / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 (order set at 0.97 to exit at a nominal loss) | Short ETH:USD from $197.81 & Short ADA:BTC from 0.00001129
Patterns: Symmetrical triangle with $5,492 target if it breaks to the downside and $7,101 target if it breaks to the upside
Horizontal support and resistance: Prior support is expected to become resistance from $6,345 - $6,385 | S: $6,300
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back hard, will it find support above 28,500? | Could this be the last squeeze before the trend starts?
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% | Do not think funding has been this out of balance towards longs in all of 2018
Short term trend (3 day MA): Price above and angling up = bullish | Trying to make bullish crossover with 8 MA (signals medium term trend along with 3 week)
Medium term trend (3 week MA): 3 & 8 MA’s are angling up but price is below = neutral
Long term trend ( 34 Week): bear
Overall trend: If 3 day crosses 8 that will make me short term bullish (although I will wait for much more confirmation before looking for a bullish entry). Definitely don’t like being against the trend with my shorts
Volume: gfy
FIB’s: Broke through 0.618 at $6,312 and 0.5 at $6,345 | Next up is 0.382 at $6,378
Candlestick analysis: Just took out daily shooting star. I was really hoping that the top of that wick would hold as resistance
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud is fatting up after a bearish kumo twist. Shows thick resistance from $6,340 - $6,478 unless we can breakthrough the thin cloud before | Broke through 1h cloud on this last move | Daily cloud is right above the down trend line. This has saved me before, the area between the cloud and the bear trendline indicates a potential area for a bull trap
TD’ Sequential: D g1 | 4h g5 | Had a small 1 candle correction after the g9 on the hourly, now g2 > g1
Visible Range: Testing point of control for 2018. There should be a ton of built of resistance in this area
Price action: 24h: +0.088% | 2w: -1.66% | 1m: -11.52%
Bollinger Bands: Testing MA right now. MA is angling up which indicates that it is less likely to act as resistance
Trendline: Bear trend: $6,475 | Bull trend: $6,200
Daily Trend: bull
Fractals: Created new down fractal at $6,300
RSI: One hour RSI is very overbought (> 80) while we are trading at major resistance. Very strong indication of a reversal
Stochastic: 4h is overbought, agrees with 1h RSI
Summary: I rarely put any emphasis on the 1h hour chart. However I have the 1h & 10m RSI's to be very helpful for recognizing when we are overbought or oversold on a short term basis. After the price broke through the daily shooting star as well as the 4h shooting star from the prior candle I was very worried that we would pump right back through $6,400. Now I am feeling cautiously optimistic. Being overbought at major resistance is generally a very strong sign of a short term reversal.
If you took the position that I outlined yesterday then your stop should still be safe (for now) and I don't see any reason why that should be adjusted now. If you are still on the sidelines then this could be a great opportunity to build a short and use a tight stop loss. We are at a very significant resistance cluster and this was the original area where I suggested an entry from two days ago. Setting a stop loss anywhere from $6,450 - $6,550 makes a lot of sense based on horizontal and trend resistance.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “If you are not in a position then opening a short at $6,300 - $6,315 provides favorable risk:reward. A stop loss slightly above $6,400 makes a long of sense” / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 (order set at 0.97 to exit at a nominal loss) | Short ETH:USD from $197.81 & Short ADA:BTC from 0.00001129
Patterns: Symmetrical triangle with $5,492 target if it breaks to the downside and $7,101 target if it breaks to the upside
Horizontal support and resistance: Prior support is expected to become resistance from $6,345 - $6,385 | S: $6,300
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back hard, will it find support above 28,500? | Could this be the last squeeze before the trend starts?
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% | Do not think funding has been this out of balance towards longs in all of 2018
Short term trend (3 day MA): Price above and angling up = bullish | Trying to make bullish crossover with 8 MA (signals medium term trend along with 3 week)
Medium term trend (3 week MA): 3 & 8 MA’s are angling up but price is below = neutral
Long term trend ( 34 Week): bear
Overall trend: If 3 day crosses 8 that will make me short term bullish (although I will wait for much more confirmation before looking for a bullish entry). Definitely don’t like being against the trend with my shorts
Volume: gfy
FIB’s: Broke through 0.618 at $6,312 and 0.5 at $6,345 | Next up is 0.382 at $6,378
Candlestick analysis: Just took out daily shooting star. I was really hoping that the top of that wick would hold as resistance
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud is fatting up after a bearish kumo twist. Shows thick resistance from $6,340 - $6,478 unless we can breakthrough the thin cloud before | Broke through 1h cloud on this last move | Daily cloud is right above the down trend line. This has saved me before, the area between the cloud and the bear trendline indicates a potential area for a bull trap
TD’ Sequential: D g1 | 4h g5 | Had a small 1 candle correction after the g9 on the hourly, now g2 > g1
Visible Range: Testing point of control for 2018. There should be a ton of built of resistance in this area
Price action: 24h: +0.088% | 2w: -1.66% | 1m: -11.52%
Bollinger Bands: Testing MA right now. MA is angling up which indicates that it is less likely to act as resistance
Trendline: Bear trend: $6,475 | Bull trend: $6,200
Daily Trend: bull
Fractals: Created new down fractal at $6,300
RSI: One hour RSI is very overbought (> 80) while we are trading at major resistance. Very strong indication of a reversal
Stochastic: 4h is overbought, agrees with 1h RSI
Summary: I rarely put any emphasis on the 1h hour chart. However I have the 1h & 10m RSI's to be very helpful for recognizing when we are overbought or oversold on a short term basis. After the price broke through the daily shooting star as well as the 4h shooting star from the prior candle I was very worried that we would pump right back through $6,400. Now I am feeling cautiously optimistic. Being overbought at major resistance is generally a very strong sign of a short term reversal.
If you took the position that I outlined yesterday then your stop should still be safe (for now) and I don't see any reason why that should be adjusted now. If you are still on the sidelines then this could be a great opportunity to build a short and use a tight stop loss. We are at a very significant resistance cluster and this was the original area where I suggested an entry from two days ago. Setting a stop loss anywhere from $6,450 - $6,550 makes a lot of sense based on horizontal and trend resistance.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/