BTCUSD ~ WEEKLY ~ Retracement & Accumulation
Diupdate
Taking a "zoom out" perspective here, mostly on the W and D charts.
TL;DR = we should see approx ~35% dump on BTC over the next week or two. This is healthy and expected to continue this bullrun. Thats about 44k zone on BTC.
All other coins will also dump, respective of their BTC-pair ratio (eg: the smaller the coin, the bigger the dump). EG: ETH I expect to dump 40-45% from its ATH in this dip cycle.
What does this mean? IDEAL time to be BUYING! Might be the last time we ever see BTC below 50k and ETH below $1500.
Whats going on?
-------------------------------------
Looks like we are about halfway through this bull run, which means the biggest gains are still ahead.
Like in last bullruns, we repeated effectively the same pattern, with an avg -35% dip between pumps.
We have had an amazing run up to where we are right now, but we are long overdue for a retracement.
In the last bullrun it was approx ~150 days between start and end of the first pump wave, then about a month of -35% retracement.
In this bullrun we are already above ~220 days since the start of this first pump wave. So as many predicted, supercycles are getting longer, but we should still retrace to be healthy.
Dip cycles
-------------------------------------
So - IMO we are looking at the first wave top at
64K, and should now retrace approx 35% (29% to 40% previous bullrun wave retracements).
Which puts us nicely along another touch of the 20W MA (yellow line) and lines up pretty well.
Another thing to note is that in every previous bullrun, we always retrace to touch the 10W and 20W MA's.
We havent been anywhere close to touching those MA's for months now, so yes, to keep the market healthy, we really do need to drop down and touch it again.
Technical Indicators
-------------------------------------
There is also a rising wedge on the D and W chart (easily visible on the W chart).
Rising wedges tend to drop, which we already did over the weekend dump.
If we do not immediately regain position into the rising wedge, then we can consider BTC having dropped out of it, which also means a drop down to support (either horizontal or MA).
So there are many many technical indicators showing that we will drop to the roughly 44k-45k level:
1) It is a horizontal support
2) It will allow us to retouch the 20W MA
3) It is a volume support zone
DYOR...
-------------------------------------
What am I going to do?
Setup buy orders with a spread of +/-5% of this level across all charts.
I typically set between 2 and 4 buy orders which line up with supports on the D and W chart.
I think this makes it very easy for us to rebuy this dip, with all these TA's lining up so perfecly if we do drop to 44k.
Expect a very strong bounce at this support zone, and I believe we will probably see either 85k or possibly even our first ever 6-digit BTC zone (100k+) as a result of the subsequent pump.
Do I sell if I know we are dipping? I used to do that....and made too many big mistakes...so now, I just dump all my crypto into yield farming and buy even more on the dip. No point selling, because none of us is ever going to get the exact bottom.
I sold 90% of my ETH at $355 on the dip months ago, thinking I could pick it up cheaper. That was 500 ETH and a 1.2m+ mistake. Not worth it at all.
TL;DR = we should see approx ~35% dump on BTC over the next week or two. This is healthy and expected to continue this bullrun. Thats about 44k zone on BTC.
All other coins will also dump, respective of their BTC-pair ratio (eg: the smaller the coin, the bigger the dump). EG: ETH I expect to dump 40-45% from its ATH in this dip cycle.
What does this mean? IDEAL time to be BUYING! Might be the last time we ever see BTC below 50k and ETH below $1500.
Whats going on?
-------------------------------------
Looks like we are about halfway through this bull run, which means the biggest gains are still ahead.
Like in last bullruns, we repeated effectively the same pattern, with an avg -35% dip between pumps.
We have had an amazing run up to where we are right now, but we are long overdue for a retracement.
In the last bullrun it was approx ~150 days between start and end of the first pump wave, then about a month of -35% retracement.
In this bullrun we are already above ~220 days since the start of this first pump wave. So as many predicted, supercycles are getting longer, but we should still retrace to be healthy.
Dip cycles
-------------------------------------
So - IMO we are looking at the first wave top at
64K, and should now retrace approx 35% (29% to 40% previous bullrun wave retracements).Which puts us nicely along another touch of the 20W MA (yellow line) and lines up pretty well.
Another thing to note is that in every previous bullrun, we always retrace to touch the 10W and 20W MA's.
We havent been anywhere close to touching those MA's for months now, so yes, to keep the market healthy, we really do need to drop down and touch it again.
Technical Indicators
-------------------------------------
There is also a rising wedge on the D and W chart (easily visible on the W chart).
Rising wedges tend to drop, which we already did over the weekend dump.
If we do not immediately regain position into the rising wedge, then we can consider BTC having dropped out of it, which also means a drop down to support (either horizontal or MA).
So there are many many technical indicators showing that we will drop to the roughly 44k-45k level:
1) It is a horizontal support
2) It will allow us to retouch the 20W MA
3) It is a volume support zone
DYOR...
-------------------------------------
What am I going to do?
Setup buy orders with a spread of +/-5% of this level across all charts.
I typically set between 2 and 4 buy orders which line up with supports on the D and W chart.
I think this makes it very easy for us to rebuy this dip, with all these TA's lining up so perfecly if we do drop to 44k.
Expect a very strong bounce at this support zone, and I believe we will probably see either 85k or possibly even our first ever 6-digit BTC zone (100k+) as a result of the subsequent pump.
Do I sell if I know we are dipping? I used to do that....and made too many big mistakes...so now, I just dump all my crypto into yield farming and buy even more on the dip. No point selling, because none of us is ever going to get the exact bottom.
I sold 90% of my ETH at $355 on the dip months ago, thinking I could pick it up cheaper. That was 500 ETH and a 1.2m+ mistake. Not worth it at all.
Catatan
well we finally hit 49k!keep going!
keep buying!
BTC is so damn strong I cannot believe it has gone so far without touching weekly MA.
hopefully we wick down super low with newbies getting wrekkt selling, and get some cheap coins for the last time....possibly ever!
BUY BUY BUY! EVERYTHING ON SALE!
Catatan
LOL...pasteboard.co/JYJ71f9.png
Catatan
aaaaaaand that played out literally perfectly.........hit PLAY button :)
Catatan
get ready....
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