BitcoinDiupdate 19.04.2021
50k and 60k are the key levels. Everything else is noise at this point.
Four scenarios:
1. Acceptance above 60k.Bull trap above 60k.
2. Bull trap above 60k.
3. Bear trap below 50k
4. Acceptance below 50k.
Four scenarios:
1. Acceptance above 60k.Bull trap above 60k.
2. Bull trap above 60k.
3. Bear trap below 50k
4. Acceptance below 50k.
Catatan
The crowded trade will obviously be long >60k and sell <50k. As long as funding stays flat or negative, I imagine smart money to be long.
Catatan
My gut feeling is 50k next, but my brain says 60k until funding picks up.Catatan
The crowded trade is obvious as stated above. But selling >60k and buying <50k is where the edge is lies.
Money is made by discounting the obvious.
Catatan
Ask me if I hedged between 55-60k like the original plan was? Nope. Fell in love with the idea of longing to a higher area of liquidity (>60k) until funding picks up. Burnt.Catatan
Once again my gut feeling is telling me to hedge everything at 
49K, since this type of PA usually marks the top. But my brain tells me that is the crowded trade.Catatan
The bearish thing is this is spot driven sell-off. We are at 48k and derivatives still haven't turned negativeCatatan
I hedged about 30% of my portfolio, I feel that's a must here to stay level-headed.Catatan
Bearish re-test of 50k and funding still yet to go negative. Time to hedge more?
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Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.