Bitcoin Daily Update (day 242)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis / position: “Bounce to $6,385 | selloff to $6,000 | bounce to $6,150 and then breakdown $6,000” & warned against selling bear flag breakdown due to underlying support / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 | Short ETHUSD' from $197.81
Patterns: Coil
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,300 | R: $6,312
BTCUSDSHORTS: Closed below triangle
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Above MA, but it has not starting turning up - neutral
Medium term trend (4 week MA): bear
Long term trend ( 32 Week): bear
Overall trend: bear
Volume: Lowest monthly volume since Oct 2017
FIB’s: Selloff found support at 0.786 ($6,210) | Breaking down 0.618 ($6,327) is very significant | 1.618 extention is at $5,630
Candlestick analysis: Daily was a bit of a darth maul | Interested to see how we react from the 4h doji
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud called the area of resistance on this last pump. Watch for price to close below the kumo at ~$6,300
TD’ Sequential: With monthly close the setup in continued with a r3 | Daily r5 | Weekly r4
Visible Range: Looking back to Feb 2018 (when this range started) and the POC is at $6,339 with the bottom of the highest volume node at $6,162.
Price action: 24h: +0.63% | 2w: -1.37% | 1m: -4.42%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA at $6,364 has just starting angling up which is very interesting. Haven’t seen this angle up for weeks and that indicates that it is less likely to act as resistance
Trendline: Bear trend is at $6,500 | Bull trend line (phase 2 hyperwave) is at $6,195
Daily Trend: bull
Fractals: Busted two down fractals on last move, next one waits at $6,055
RSI: 4h resisted 50 | 1h no longer oversold and is pulling back from overbought territory
Stochastic: Daily buy signal | 4h entering overbought territory | 1h sell

Summary: Everything is still going according to plan. I was closely watching the monthly close today for a couple reasons. First of all I was really wanting the TD’ setup to continue with a red 3 as outlined in my most reason Bitcoin Bubble Comparison. The second reason was a close below $6,390 (Bitstamp) gave us the lowest monthly close since September 2017.

Now I am watching for resistance to hold strong below $6,385 over the next 24 - 48 hours. If that happens then I will be feeling confident in a $6,000 retest,. I still expect that area to provide one last dead cat bounce before the price breaks down the yearly support.

If you are not in a position then opening a short at $6,300 - $6,315 provides favorable risk:reward. A stop loss slightly above $6,400 makes a long of sense based on horizontal support and resistance along with the visible range volume profile.