What i think will happen over the next 6 months

29 Mar 2020

TECHNICALS:

Bullish:

200 wsma holding


rsi stupidly oversold *though it's not an indication of a bottom

From chart history, the price doesn't like to stay below lower bb'


Lower trendline penetration


Wyckoff


I guess this is bullish. lol


Bearish:

this (overleveraged corona panic)


Hyperwave?


Wedge?





SENTIMENTAL

Finex shorts +200% and longs - 40% near (in the bottom) late shorts loading and longs getting liquidated - bullish reversal. (though this is more short term oriented)


OKEx net longs short is near 0.80 - an almost all-time low.
okex.com/markets/futures-data/btc-usd-weekly

binance short account - 62%, long - 38%

I have never seen F&G staying so low for so long.
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

After the big dump, more people got rekt trying to 100x long than on 30% down move


People try to short every time they see a down move


A lot of gurus got liquidated from twitter. ( unfortunately not all of them)

After the big dump, i thought btc is a scam. Usually, i am wrong.

Funding on fire


COT. Leveraged funds went short and quit, professional traders went long and also quit. - bullish
tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/133741

Overall, sentiment is extremely negative.

ATH of XBT Volatility (fear)

FUNDAMENTALS

Bullish:

Whales keep growing 1000k+ adresses
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.Min1KCount&mAvg=7&s=1337577556&u=1581292800&zoom=

lowest ever SOPR
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.Sopr&mAvg=7&s=1357516800&u=1583798400&zoom=

Puell Multiple is green. And after the halving, it will dump more


Unrealized profit/loss at its lows
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.NetUnrealizedProfitLoss

Reserve/Risk is also supper low
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.ReserveRisk&mAvg=7

NVT is also looking good. Maybe not that good for 2 years ahead


Difficulty ribbon and market multiple


FED printer go brrrr.

Euro printer go brrrr.

Tether printer go brr (almost 2 billions in a few weeks)
skew.com/dashboard/stable-coins

USDC printer go brrr.

skew.com/dashboard/macro
Q2 alway had higher returns.

India unbanning crypto

Plenty of yearly bases in alts.


Bearish:

- Too many miners. ( more hash = more competition). We may witness a real mining disaster after halving.


- South Korea may do more regulations.

- Transactions do not grow fast.

- People still do not trust it.

31 Mar 2020

Catatan

Tether chart. Maybe people just want to short now. Guess what will happen with em

2 Apr 2020

Catatan

2 Apr 2020

Catatan

It is not supper precise but you may understand a level of sentiment while approaching to decision levels

2 Apr 2020

Catatan

2 Apr 2020

Catatan

I would say this - when it stays negative/positive over the period of time first poll change will indicate on reversal. The same logic as with support/resistance