Bitcoin bulls pushing back, time to breath a little bit

11 Agu 2018

I had a plan in mind since we broke the support and that was waiting for a big bullish wedge to form around the low, but i was waiting for another move down first to give more shape to this wedge, but it's starting to look like the bulls pushed it out of the wedge already. There is small bull flag in the making now, bulls are slowly loosing a bit of the buy momentum here, but as long as we stay above the 6350/70 the bulls should be able to keep the upper hand here. If we stay above that level, could give confidence back the bulls, instead of seeing another rally getting smashed down again. This flag indicates prices at 6700/6800, but then the bulls really need to step up and get in with good volume. The trend is still clearly down, for me the turning point is around 7300, to think if this big drop from the 8500 was just a retest of the support or a new impulse wave to break downwards to lower 5K levels.

If that green support area holds around the 6100/6200, there could still be a retest of that support, of the current bull flag fails. If that doesn't hold, than it's very likely that the 6000/5800 support won't hold as well.

Previous analysis:

11 Agu 2018

Catatan

This is something i wrote yesterday when we dropped to the 6350, was having doubts to post it or not, but i thought why not just share it and see if some you have something to say about it, maybe even fill the gaps i have in this theory :) Maybe together we can break the patterns of these whales who keep F ing around with us.

12 Agu 2018

Catatan

Unfortunately, it's official again, the Bart moves are completely back again. It's almost like when we get in the 6K levels, they start to flourish again. The moves are just getting random again. One shake out after the other again. It's following the red line now, so it was not unexpected, but the way it moved again is just what is so frustrating, because it means their back again. We maybe had 1 week i think that we did not see their tricks. Just sad to see what this market has become, seems like retail money is nothing more than fuel for these people to steer in the direction they want to go.

Bulls need to hold this level now, otherwise it was probably nothing more than a big short shake out AND luring longs in at the highs to dump on their asses again so they cut their losses as well and start selling at the lows. In other words, FUEL!!!

12 Agu 2018

Catatan

This kinda sticks out, on bitfinex it got pumped 3 times to 6320, on Bitstamp it got stuck at 6300 and Bitmex 6280. This attempt was not once, something we see more often, but 3 or 4 times even. Like someone with volume is standing up.
I am mentioning this, because the volume at the dump was less than this buying volume. It's like market buy order with high volume is pocket change and probably bots immediately fill the sell order book again because other exchanges have lower prices. I have not been able to watch it all, just mentioning what i did see.

13 Agu 2018

Catatan

With the moves we made earlier today, it had formed a bearish wedge. The target of this wedge seems to be have reached. I think the 6100 has to hold, if that breaks the 6000 could still make a double bottom, but i am not really confident about that, rather see it bounce up from these levels.

13 Agu 2018

Catatan

It started to look good, the bear flag it was making almost got invalidated. Bulls were almost taking over again but there is no conviction at all seems.There is still some hope, the green 6150ish is still holding, as long as we stay above that level there is hope for the bulls.

Alts are complete crap again, not even showing a small bounce up. The panic seems to be very big in the Alt coins. They are making a big V shape it seems, but impossible to say where a bounce will happen.

14 Agu 2018

Catatan

It's hell on earth for the alts, with this much force and violence, the end could be near though. But i have no idea where it will be! Could drop another 5%, could be another 50% no use looking back at past support levels, this is pure panic at the moment.
Bitcoin broke the first support, that green area, from the looks of it, the 6000 will get tested again, but wondering if it will hold this time, with all the panic in the market right now.

14 Agu 2018

Catatan

Think the bulls have to push it back above the 6000 again, otherwise we will probably see another dump after this small bear flag

14 Agu 2018

Catatan

If this resistance breaks (in the middle) could be the start to break the big resistance on the left. Look a bit like an inverse H&S, but usually these or not that reliable. Think they need to keep it above the 6050, otherwise bears might take over again and test the lows

14 Agu 2018

Catatan

Bears are still pushing back, so it could still fail, the resistance on the left is still there. if they are able to break, we could see a squeeze! But not there yet. Bulls need to keep pushing here, hold their grip. If they let it drop below the 6100/6150, they will probably have lost the fight

14 Agu 2018

Catatan

Shorts on Bitfinex are close to the April low, doesn't say a whole lot, because it doesn't show all the volume and of course people are getting smarter (i think :))

15 Agu 2018

Catatan

Big whale is buying bitcoin on Bitfinex, think he bought 3000/4000 btc the last 15 min. Sick :)

15 Agu 2018

Catatan

Dont think he is loading up for a few hundred points, probably for a big move. Think he bought like 6000/8000 btc, dont have any exact numbers.
Other exchanges still don't have the nerves to follow though.
He still has a huge hidden buy order at 6300, think already 2000 got sold into it.

15 Agu 2018

Catatan

Alts are on strike? Not ready to dump anymore even though bitcoin dropped 200 points from the high?

15 Agu 2018

Catatan

Bitcoin has made the xx attempt to make that inverse H&S around the 6500 neckline. So far it got rejected again, But with all the action going on yesterday, don't think it will fail this time.
Unless a big part was all wash trading we saw yesterday, we can never now that for sure :(
Anyway, if it's not fake, these people don't buy for a 100/300 points, they buy for moves of 1000/3000 points. But i don't see the market recover very easily though, unless we see the alts make a second move up, something we have not seen for a while now. The big turning point for the mid-term is 7300, but a road of resistances is up ahead in the mean while as well.

There is room for a drop to 6100 even, but i don't think the market will be able to handle that, bulls need to feel safe with their longs, no big crashes if this is a turn around.

15 Agu 2018

Catatan

And a small H&S on the left, dont want to see that neckline break for the bulls, could mean 6100 again