Bitcoin - Bubble Bear Trap
The week has just closed after a short-squeeze, ending with a potential head and shoulders. This could be the result of whales pushing price through short stop losses to establish short positions of their own.
If this is a bubble, which I believe it is, then we are just about to finish the Awareness Phase and Enter the Mania Phase. We have had the "First Sell Off" But are yet to see a Bear Trap. (See linked image: i2.wp.com/transportgeography.org/wp-content/uploads/stages_bubble.png?w=720&ssl=1 )
If a Bear Trap is to occur then the primary target would be the local big even of 5K.
Bubbles form hyperwaves, which require a weekly close above the trend line of the respective phase. We are potentially in phase 2 right now, which places support at around 6250 (indicated by blue dotted line). This means that the Bear Trap should begin shortly after this week's close, reaching a low of 5K around mid-late week and ending above 6250 before the close of next week.
If this is a bubble, which I believe it is, then we are just about to finish the Awareness Phase and Enter the Mania Phase. We have had the "First Sell Off" But are yet to see a Bear Trap. (See linked image: i2.wp.com/transportgeography.org/wp-content/uploads/stages_bubble.png?w=720&ssl=1 )
If a Bear Trap is to occur then the primary target would be the local big even of 5K.
Bubbles form hyperwaves, which require a weekly close above the trend line of the respective phase. We are potentially in phase 2 right now, which places support at around 6250 (indicated by blue dotted line). This means that the Bear Trap should begin shortly after this week's close, reaching a low of 5K around mid-late week and ending above 6250 before the close of next week.
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Blue bar pattern from EW 3-4
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The past week can be considered one complete Elliot Wave Set. One week in duration, 5% price range. This set projects the B wave to form around mid-late week (soon), which has been a time of sudden volatility over the past few months. The C wave is likely to be quite steep, perhaps leading into a 3 day bear trap.Catatan
B Wave could look more like this: Catatan
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The B wave has now completed, SMAs about to cross.3 Days until the weekly close, this remains the window for a bear trap.
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UPDATE: Bear trap to occur next week, not this week. Market needs time to bounce and turn bearish first Catatan
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