$BTC 0.382 Fib and 50 SMA Bounce | Will it hold? #Bitcoin #XBT

2 Jul 2019

Been short hedged since getting the "Close" signal on my GTS strategy code at just under 12k (See results of my code over the last 2 years at the bottom of this page). Below is a link to a screen cap of that position on Mex.

imgur.com/a/JRLG8kd

Bitcoin just bounced on the 0.382 Fib retracement taken from the bottom in December to the recent top. I suspect further downside, but I am perfectly hedged at the moment and happy to stay short until my code gives me another signal.

At the moment the only way in which I get another signal would be if we cross the black dashed line in the chart in the next 7 hours before the next 12-hour candle closes. The dashed line is currently at ~11500 and will move down toward the current price in dynamic intervals every candle close, accelerating and decelerating relative to the price action.

I am still short, but if BTC was to establish a new range, this would be the first place I would be paying attention to. One thing I am seeing is that we are dropping at descending volume and the Bitmex funding is still overleveraged to the long side.



This could mean we haven't capitulated with this move just yet and more pain is incoming for the bulls.

2 Jul 2019

Catatan

I ideally want to see BTC retrace at least to it's 100 Day SMA or to the 200 Day EMA. If we can make it there I will decisively close my shorts and buy some more spot.