DXY is back on its track ... Gold should be scared!
Dollar index is back on its track after a slump many days ago due to so many noises from the news. Nonetheless, what's driving the DXY up this time is also due to the "news"!, but this time a quality one. I want you to focus back to the fact why DXY will continue to go up from the following news ... "FED will raise the rates anyway regardless of the inflation" ... "Yellen emphasized that the inflation should rise soon" ... "FED chair's appointment which whoever he/she is the rates will be gradually raised anyway" ... "tax reform successful probability rate is still high" ... "US GDP, inflation, and PMI data are fair" ... all these news are what driving the DXY up in a long run. In my opinion, a level of 97.xx is not impossible at all in the next 3 months. However, some quick fact, there is still a risk from the debt ceiling which was pushed to December due to two hurricanes that hit the US last month; this debt ceiling problem could loom out again in the late November this year and could be a negative factor to the DXY, but the problem should be solved by "somehow" ... why?! Because don't forget that there's a congressional election next year which the Replubican need all the support it can get to win this election by solving all these problems to get public support. Also, there is this childlish "Rocket-man" problem as well in the Korean peninsula that is now reinforcing by US-South Korea military drills; North-Korea will not stand idle to this and this could put pressure on every markets again including the DXY. In general, I believe the DXY will continue its trend - uptrend - for a while and give us a good opportunity to trade everything against the greenback whenever an opportunity arise which in this case is Gold. For Gold, you only have to consider two things DXY and geopolitical issues which lately has been soften even with constant rocket-man threats of striking with nuclear weapons, but this surely is just a noise. So, shorting gold at this point is quite an interesting trade why?
In a daily time frame, I was waiting for a good opportunity to short the gold again even if I recommended, in my another channel, to Long Gold back at around 1270.xx - a counter trend trade which I marked a target at 1300.xx - after we shorted it a little below 1300.xx. This time it's clear that gold is conforming to its bigger picture down trend, week trend, which is why I'm recommending to short gold.
In a week time frame, it is clear by just a glimse look at the Fisher Transform because I mean it has yet triggered a reversal; it's still down.
In a daily time frame, I was waiting for a good opportunity to short the gold again even if I recommended, in my another channel, to Long Gold back at around 1270.xx - a counter trend trade which I marked a target at 1300.xx - after we shorted it a little below 1300.xx. This time it's clear that gold is conforming to its bigger picture down trend, week trend, which is why I'm recommending to short gold.
In a week time frame, it is clear by just a glimse look at the Fisher Transform because I mean it has yet triggered a reversal; it's still down.
Catatan
XAUUSD is losing its value since geopolitical tension is fading away. Remember Gold is never a hedge for a portfolio; it's a hedge for uncertain geopolitical issues and inflation or you could only play during the late cycle and definitely this is yet the market late cycle.Catatan
Curbing inflation with interest rate hike will only reduce the shiny metal value and negligence of geopolitical tension is helping boosting our short position profit.Catatan
Even a bomb in NY did not even give Gold a rally. This is obvious now that Gold will not even make it back again soon. Short!
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