A pullback to around 2300 is a shorting opportunity
Diupdate
https://www.tradingview.com/x/m97SV9iH/
On the last trading day of last week, the US non-farm payrolls data was released, showing unexpectedly strong growth momentum. These two pieces of bad news were like a bombshell, causing the gold price to experience a big drop in a short period of time. The gold price plummeted from a high of $2,387 to a low of $2,286, with the largest single-day drop of up to $100, causing an uproar in the market. The weekly line closed with a negative line with a clear upper shadow line, and the gold price has been on a downward trend for three consecutive weeks.
At the same time, the unexpectedly strong US non-farm payrolls data caught gold bulls off guard. The expected safe-haven demand was greatly discounted due to the strong performance of the job market, and the gold price was forced to pull back to below the integer mark of nearly $2,300. Faced with such a severe market situation, traders have become particularly sensitive to the future monetary policy trends of the Federal Reserve. The market expects that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June or July has dropped significantly, and this week's meeting may provide some clues to the interest rate cut policy later this year.
As for the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut, the market generally expects that it may be postponed to November, rather than the original September. This change makes investors full of uncertainty about the future trend of the gold market. In the coming week, the market will pay close attention to a series of important economic data to find clues to the trend of gold prices.
On Wednesday, the announcement of the US CPI and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision will become the focus of the market. The release of these two data will directly affect the market's expectations of inflation and monetary policy, and thus have an important impact on gold prices.
On Thursday, the release of the US PPI, the number of initial jobless claims for the week, and the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Japan will also attract widespread attention from the market. The release of these data will further reveal the direction of the global economy and monetary policy and provide investors with a basis for decision-making.
On Friday, the release of the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is also worth looking forward to. The index is an important indicator for measuring consumers' future economic conditions and willingness to buy, and has a certain reference value for predicting the trend of gold prices.
From the market point of view, after hitting a low of $2386.70 on Friday, the rebound closed at $2293. The rebound was not large, and it basically closed near the lowest point. That is to say, after a continuous decline, the bulls' rebound momentum is still weak, and the bears still firmly control the initiative of the market. Therefore, there will not be much room for rebound at the opening of this week. The focus is on the integer mark of 2300 and the previous low support of $2315. Here, there is suppression converted to suppression.
It is not difficult to find that there are many rebounds during the whole decline, and the amplitude of the rebound is relatively limited. At most, it rebounds upward by fifteen dollars. Therefore, the rebound opportunity of 2300 in the morning of this trading day is the entry point, and the focus below is 2290/2285.
In terms of time rhythm, a single trading day continues to decline, especially after the night market continues to hit a low, the opening of the next trading day is the correction time point, and the short order is followed up with the rebound of the market during this period.
In general, the market in the morning of this trading day is around 2300, and it will fall under pressure first, and the 2290/85 position will be focused on below.
International Gold Layout, for reference only:
Short-term: Directly short at 2300, stop loss 2308., target 2290/2285!
On the last trading day of last week, the US non-farm payrolls data was released, showing unexpectedly strong growth momentum. These two pieces of bad news were like a bombshell, causing the gold price to experience a big drop in a short period of time. The gold price plummeted from a high of $2,387 to a low of $2,286, with the largest single-day drop of up to $100, causing an uproar in the market. The weekly line closed with a negative line with a clear upper shadow line, and the gold price has been on a downward trend for three consecutive weeks.
At the same time, the unexpectedly strong US non-farm payrolls data caught gold bulls off guard. The expected safe-haven demand was greatly discounted due to the strong performance of the job market, and the gold price was forced to pull back to below the integer mark of nearly $2,300. Faced with such a severe market situation, traders have become particularly sensitive to the future monetary policy trends of the Federal Reserve. The market expects that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June or July has dropped significantly, and this week's meeting may provide some clues to the interest rate cut policy later this year.
As for the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut, the market generally expects that it may be postponed to November, rather than the original September. This change makes investors full of uncertainty about the future trend of the gold market. In the coming week, the market will pay close attention to a series of important economic data to find clues to the trend of gold prices.
On Wednesday, the announcement of the US CPI and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision will become the focus of the market. The release of these two data will directly affect the market's expectations of inflation and monetary policy, and thus have an important impact on gold prices.
On Thursday, the release of the US PPI, the number of initial jobless claims for the week, and the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Japan will also attract widespread attention from the market. The release of these data will further reveal the direction of the global economy and monetary policy and provide investors with a basis for decision-making.
On Friday, the release of the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is also worth looking forward to. The index is an important indicator for measuring consumers' future economic conditions and willingness to buy, and has a certain reference value for predicting the trend of gold prices.
From the market point of view, after hitting a low of $2386.70 on Friday, the rebound closed at $2293. The rebound was not large, and it basically closed near the lowest point. That is to say, after a continuous decline, the bulls' rebound momentum is still weak, and the bears still firmly control the initiative of the market. Therefore, there will not be much room for rebound at the opening of this week. The focus is on the integer mark of 2300 and the previous low support of $2315. Here, there is suppression converted to suppression.
It is not difficult to find that there are many rebounds during the whole decline, and the amplitude of the rebound is relatively limited. At most, it rebounds upward by fifteen dollars. Therefore, the rebound opportunity of 2300 in the morning of this trading day is the entry point, and the focus below is 2290/2285.
In terms of time rhythm, a single trading day continues to decline, especially after the night market continues to hit a low, the opening of the next trading day is the correction time point, and the short order is followed up with the rebound of the market during this period.
In general, the market in the morning of this trading day is around 2300, and it will fall under pressure first, and the 2290/85 position will be focused on below.
International Gold Layout, for reference only:
Short-term: Directly short at 2300, stop loss 2308., target 2290/2285!
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