
Key supporting factors: Uncertainty over the shutdown: The phased reopening plan has not yet been approved, which is keeping demand for safe-haven assets high.
Expectations of Fed easing: The probability of a rate cut in October is 100%, and in December is 80%, despite disagreements within the Fed.
As prices rise, the risks of a correction increase, especially against the backdrop of the Fed chair's speech.
Gold remains in a bullish trend. A correction to $4,000 looks like a healthy pause. Further dynamics depend on the Fed's tone and developments with the shutdown — a break below $4,000 is unlikely without new fundamental reasons.
Resistance levels: 4041, 4059, 4100
Support levels: 4001, 3986
Technically, gold has been rising without pullbacks for 35 days. The growth amounted to more than 22%. Accordingly, the market may form corrections, pullbacks, or consolidations within local timeframes. News may provoke such corrective maneuvers before the main movement. I consider the support levels of 4000 - 3986 - 3961 to be areas of interest. A retest or false breakdown could trigger a rebound and growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
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