After six weeks of uninterrupted selling, the yellow metal turned a corner last week. Piggybacking off USD weakness, bullion concluded the week closing within striking distance of resistance plotted at 1214.4, a level that held strongly as support on May/July of 2017. As a result, this is not a barrier to overlook, fellow traders!
Daily perspective:
Encasing the current weekly resistance level is a daily supply zone seen at 1221.2-1207.5 (brought into the mix on Friday). Features worth mentioning here is the strong base comprised of a number of daily candles, and robust downside momentum produced from the zone (pink arrow). In addition to this, extra weight is credited to this area given it was effectively the obvious decision point to print 2018 yearly lows of 1160.3.
H4 perspective:
Having seen the USD extend its downside presence on Friday, the price of gold capitalized on this movement, breaking above resistance at 1197.8 (now acting support) and confronting resistance drawn from 1207.1 (fuses with nearby 61.8% Fib resistance at 1206.7 and trend line support-turned resistance [extended from the low 1204.1]). Note this resistance also effectively represents the underside of the aforementioned daily supply, supported further with the H4 RSI indicator seen nearing overbought territory.
Areas of consideration:
Owing to the H4 confluence seen surrounding the current H4 resistance level at 1207.1, along with daily supply at 1221.2-1207.5 recently entering the game, lower prices could potentially be on the horizon, targeting nearby H4 support at 1197.8 as the initial port of call. In regard to stop-loss placement, above the minor H4 supply (small kink) marked with a black arrow at 1209.6 is certainly an option.
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