Global monetary policy has turned from hiking rate to rate cut and QE. Only BOE and BOC have not followed these rate cut path; however, given recent data miss in Q3, I am expecting these 2 central banks will cut rate in the near future.
XAUUSD not only react with news of trade wars (US - China) or Brexit, it also react with the market expectation of more rate cut of big central banks. For now, market expectation of FED rate cut in Oct 31th has gone up due to recent data miss which is the main market drivers of Gold in recent days. I m expecting Gold will continue to make continuation pattern and go up in short-term; however, up side may be limited and a reversal is expected in or after Oct 31th. The reason is that Central banks may pause rate cut for the year 2019 to see if previous rate cut kicks in the economy.
In technical perspective, Gold market structure is still in downtrend in H4, another lower swing high is forming. Therefore, i m looking for reversal signals below the previous swing high in H4. 1510 is good zone to watch for short. Trading zone is 1510 - 1440.
A higher swing high in H4 will terminate this setup
XAUUSD not only react with news of trade wars (US - China) or Brexit, it also react with the market expectation of more rate cut of big central banks. For now, market expectation of FED rate cut in Oct 31th has gone up due to recent data miss which is the main market drivers of Gold in recent days. I m expecting Gold will continue to make continuation pattern and go up in short-term; however, up side may be limited and a reversal is expected in or after Oct 31th. The reason is that Central banks may pause rate cut for the year 2019 to see if previous rate cut kicks in the economy.
In technical perspective, Gold market structure is still in downtrend in H4, another lower swing high is forming. Therefore, i m looking for reversal signals below the previous swing high in H4. 1510 is good zone to watch for short. Trading zone is 1510 - 1440.
A higher swing high in H4 will terminate this setup
