SUMMARY - Getting closer to to bull thesis outcome, but not quite yet. If bull thesis is true for this December, it will look like this.
DETAILS - All the lines are price regressions. Blue vertical bars are FOMC, gray are ADP, black are NFP, red are CPI, and of course, yellow are new moon dates for November and December. Current odds strongly favor one more low. Number-crunching say 1700-1710 from 11/22 to 12/02 as it stands right now. I will say that we are about 3 weeks out from confirming this move (by 11/04).
SO? - If you really want to get short, wait until 11/02. If you want to get long, wait until November 30th.