MyJournal 19 - 23/02/2024

25 Feb

MyJournal 19 - 23/02/2024 XAU

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WINS/LOSSES COMMENTS
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Summary:
.USDX W1 became bearish pinbar
.Mon-Wed sell, Thu-Fri FOMC news=USD became stronger, bullish pinbar

Position:
.XAUUSD previous W1 pinbar reject 1980, predicted current W1 to become bullish
.Prediction: Mon-Wed sell, WedThu-Fri buy
.Reality: Monday- touched 38.2 W1, and went up, Wed/Thu never come back except Friday
No entry, as RR not that great


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FUNDAMENTALS
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a) DXY -
CPI getting hotter, sentiment still rate cut delayed (bullish USD)
Technical W1>
Last> bearish pinbar
(NOW)> bearish engulf

b) Other news:
USD - (Thur) FOMC = Case1) Rate cuts delayed- USD stronger, buy
CHF - (...) No data
GBP - (...) No data
JPY - (...) No data
AUD - (...) No data
c) XAU - XAU strong fundamentally, Lobo Tiggre said 2024 bullish gold in all cases


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TECHNICALS
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a) Monthly/ W1 chart template- Bearish;
1st> bearish engulf
2nd> bearish pinbar
(NOW) 3rd> bullish engulf
4th> ?? bearish pinbar

b) D1 chart template -
Monday/Tuesday> bullish - bullish
Tues/Wed> bearish - bearish
(NOW) Wed/Thurs/Fri> bearish - bearish
*check DXY chart to confirm the thesis, 15M chart- Execute, Breakout/Pullback


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TAKING POSITION RULES
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(Normal)
0.25% per position,
1) Daily/Weekly 61.8/78.6 swing, plus all conservative positions.

(Conservative)
1) Monthly 61.8/78.6
2) 2nd try after SL
3) 3rd try
4) 4th try

(Ultra conservative)
1) Monthly 61.8/78.6
2) 3rd try after SL
2) 4th try


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ESSENTIAL CONCEPTS
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a) Typical structure - Monthly: Buy Buy Sell Sell / Sell Sell Buy Buy
- Weekly: Buy Buy Sell Sell / Sell Sell Buy Buy
b) Sessions - Asian/London/New York


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ADDITIONAL BIAS
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a) Round psychology number 50/00
b) WeeklyTypicalStructure:
-anatomy of candle, price always push to other side first before making real move
-midweek reversalrejection/continuation > BuyBuy*SellSell / SellSell*BuyBuy
c) Daily Candlestick Pattern: doji, engulfing, insidebar/railroad
d) TakeProfit TP / StopLoss SL
Depends on:
-fundamentally / what are the news saying
-liquidity pool at Daily/Weekly/Monthly where
-averageDailyRange ADR
-catch explosive move only if direction align with weekly high low bias.
Eg. Previous day was bullish doji at daily support & it is mid of the week, do catch today explosive move to next weekly liquidity pool.
e) Entry timing recommendation
-session LONDON, NY 9-12PM GMT+8
f) Entry with discount price, use Fibonacci