XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!

KOG Report:

In last weeks KOG Report we suggested we would be bullish on Gold and would be looking for the market to target the 1985 mark as long as it stayed above the 1950 price region. We suggested we wanted to see how the market would open and if that 1960-65 price region would act as resistance on the price, if that was the case then we would be looking for 1950 to get tested and would need to hold as support for the price to go higher. During the week we updated the analysis to keep followers in tow with what we were doing and looking at, you can see it played out not perfectly, but well.

So what can we expect in the week ahead?

We would love to say we’re bullish on Gold but at the moment we’re not too convinced with the structure and price action on the chart. This is not to say we’re not looking to go long but we feel we may see some more bearish movement on Gold as long as we remain below that 1960-65 price region. We're going to share the months analysis on a separate chart to give you our view on a longer term basis so please do take a look at that as well.

So we’ll use the 4H chart today for the report as the levels in ranges like this are more appropriate and easier to use. Just like we did with the NFP report on Friday we’ll stick with a similar plan where we will be looking at the range of 1960-65 as resistance and key support sitting at around the 1880-85 region. We have FOMC on Wednesday so we would expect the market to begin the week slowly and potentially stay within the immediate range of 1910 to 1940-45. So we will look at this with 2 scenarios as usual keeping in mind we will update the analysis specifically for the FOMC KOG Report on Wednesday.

Scenario 1:

The market opens and tests the higher resistance levels as shown on the chart, we will be looking for this resistance level to hold and we feel that would represent an opportunity to short the market down towards the lower support levels, also shown on the chart. Please remember, this is a weekly plan, the best way to trade this is KOGs level to level way working your way through the levels to the final destination.

Scenario 2:

The market opens, we see the price test the lower support level of 1910 initially, based on support here we feel this would represent an opportunity to long the market towards the immediate resistance levels and range high.

As we mentioned last week, while we’re in this range we will trade level to level with the plan to wait for the extreme support or resistance levels to take our positions for the longer term. We will maintain a neutral bias for this week waiting for the break or the range and the break level to turn into support or resistance. We have drawn a box on the chart with the immediate range for you.

Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do.

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As always, trade safe.

KOG