2300-2450 WALKTHROUGH TO FOMC REACTION PART 6
The next 30 hours are everything. Here is same route as PART 5, but super super detailed.
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6/4 7:30 PM, Notes on incoming low:
1) price is likely to spend ONLY 4-6 HOURS UNDER 2315
2) ONLY 2 HOURS UNDER 2308
3) so that would mean it would be at 2300 only for short while
4) UNLESS
5) price is considerably weaker than hi-light for the next 15 hours
6) which puts us at 10:30 AM ET after reaction to ADP jobs report
1) price is likely to spend ONLY 4-6 HOURS UNDER 2315
2) ONLY 2 HOURS UNDER 2308
3) so that would mean it would be at 2300 only for short while
4) UNLESS
5) price is considerably weaker than hi-light for the next 15 hours
6) which puts us at 10:30 AM ET after reaction to ADP jobs report
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7) be aware that IF PRICE TAKES THIS ROUTE TO 2342 BEFORE ADP REPORT
8) then forecast to tag 2300 IS A PURELY TECHNICAL ONE
9) NOT A FUNDAMENTAL ONE
10) meaning what?
11) meaning that if we are at 2342 at 8:25 AM ET tomorrow
12) would I really be surprised if price just skipped those 6 hours?
13) and move sideways at 2315?
14) not at all
15) bc if price tag 2300, IT HAS NO CHANCE to hit 2700 on 7/4
16) the hard ceiling would be at 2675
17) but if price skips it, the ceiling would be 2690-2700
18) if your argument is it needs to tag 2300 "BECAUSE IT'S A NICE ROUND PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL"
19) the counter argument is "SO IS 2700"
8) then forecast to tag 2300 IS A PURELY TECHNICAL ONE
9) NOT A FUNDAMENTAL ONE
10) meaning what?
11) meaning that if we are at 2342 at 8:25 AM ET tomorrow
12) would I really be surprised if price just skipped those 6 hours?
13) and move sideways at 2315?
14) not at all
15) bc if price tag 2300, IT HAS NO CHANCE to hit 2700 on 7/4
16) the hard ceiling would be at 2675
17) but if price skips it, the ceiling would be 2690-2700
18) if your argument is it needs to tag 2300 "BECAUSE IT'S A NICE ROUND PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL"
19) the counter argument is "SO IS 2700"
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8:31 PM, This is where "Elliot Wave counts" do help with explaining things:
1) at the start of ANY BIG RALLY
2) should be: 1-2, 1-2, then two smaller 1-2, 1-2
3) that is another way of saying that
4) there should be four instances of zigzags
5) a normal size one (as it relates to the rally)
6) a complete one (1-2-3-4-5 pattern, which is 3 individual zigzags)
7) and two smaller ones
8) I respect this idea and consider it pretty much a fact
9) but the current details in this forecast would...
10) SEEM LIKE it's missing first round of 1-2
11) this can be compensated by holding 2315 tomorrow
12) during Tokyo or the LAST 6 HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, NY TIME
13) be very aware of this for tomorrow night
14) because odds ARE STARTING to favor a perfect wave lead-in....
15) that I talked about in PART 5
16) and for the next 12 hours, if price follows this route
17) and make that final spike for 2342 right around 8:30 AM ADP...
18) AFTER THAT: all my focus will be on my trade management and leverage
19) I will only add some notes on current trend and bottoming situation
1) at the start of ANY BIG RALLY
2) should be: 1-2, 1-2, then two smaller 1-2, 1-2
3) that is another way of saying that
4) there should be four instances of zigzags
5) a normal size one (as it relates to the rally)
6) a complete one (1-2-3-4-5 pattern, which is 3 individual zigzags)
7) and two smaller ones
8) I respect this idea and consider it pretty much a fact
9) but the current details in this forecast would...
10) SEEM LIKE it's missing first round of 1-2
11) this can be compensated by holding 2315 tomorrow
12) during Tokyo or the LAST 6 HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, NY TIME
13) be very aware of this for tomorrow night
14) because odds ARE STARTING to favor a perfect wave lead-in....
15) that I talked about in PART 5
16) and for the next 12 hours, if price follows this route
17) and make that final spike for 2342 right around 8:30 AM ADP...
18) AFTER THAT: all my focus will be on my trade management and leverage
19) I will only add some notes on current trend and bottoming situation
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9:05 PM, This is what that last part meant:
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1) hold on, this is better:
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2) in chart above, so...
3) if price really wants to tag 2300
4) like "make sure"
5) price MUST UNDER PERFORM ORANGE ROUTE
6) like yellow hi-light
7) whereas if price follows orange route dead on
8) IT'S ALMOST SAYING THAT IT WILL SKIP 2300
9) and stall at 2315-2318
10 but can't be proven
11) bc 4-6 hours under 2315, 2 hours under 2308 and a short while at 2300
12) IS BASICALLY A STICK SAVE
13) you don't know it will happen until IT'S ABOUT TO
14) I am detailing this area so much
15) because once I know bottom is in
16) most of my attention going forward is to manage my own money
17) that's a wrap
3) if price really wants to tag 2300
4) like "make sure"
5) price MUST UNDER PERFORM ORANGE ROUTE
6) like yellow hi-light
7) whereas if price follows orange route dead on
8) IT'S ALMOST SAYING THAT IT WILL SKIP 2300
9) and stall at 2315-2318
10 but can't be proven
11) bc 4-6 hours under 2315, 2 hours under 2308 and a short while at 2300
12) IS BASICALLY A STICK SAVE
13) you don't know it will happen until IT'S ABOUT TO
14) I am detailing this area so much
15) because once I know bottom is in
16) most of my attention going forward is to manage my own money
17) that's a wrap
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18) to be more clear, that is saying that the decision to hit 2300 or not
19) is being made in the next 11 hours
19) is being made in the next 11 hours
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9:27 PM.. THINK ABOUT IT THIS WAY...
1) right now THIS SECOND the floor 2300, and we are 2327.xx
2) if PRICE MOVES UP 15 TO 2342.... WITH 16 HOURS TO GO TO THE FLOOR
3) that's enough to raise the floor 15 to 2315 IN MOST SITUATIONS
4) the exception being situations like these where 15 pt stick save is basically normal
1) right now THIS SECOND the floor 2300, and we are 2327.xx
2) if PRICE MOVES UP 15 TO 2342.... WITH 16 HOURS TO GO TO THE FLOOR
3) that's enough to raise the floor 15 to 2315 IN MOST SITUATIONS
4) the exception being situations like these where 15 pt stick save is basically normal
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5) there's a lot of "signal traders" who just want a signal
6) and don't consider just how complicated price action is
7) AND HOW QUICKLY IT'S OVER
6) and don't consider just how complicated price action is
7) AND HOW QUICKLY IT'S OVER
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8) continuing from chart above
9) make entry plans now
10) if you have questions, post them now
11) tomorrow night IS A VERY BAD TIME FOR QUESTIONS
9) make entry plans now
10) if you have questions, post them now
11) tomorrow night IS A VERY BAD TIME FOR QUESTIONS
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12) I did not have a scenario for a high higher than 42....
13) think about what that means ok?
14) the curve shift MAY come quicker
13) think about what that means ok?
14) the curve shift MAY come quicker
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10:51 PM, 32.xx as of right now...
15) the only changes I can see is this:
15) the only changes I can see is this:
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a) slightly WEAKER IN TOKYO WEDNESDAY
b) but moderately STRONGER IN TOKYO THURSDAY
b) but moderately STRONGER IN TOKYO THURSDAY
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c) it does SEEM LIKE at this time, that a tag of 42 is NOT ENOUGH to eliminate 2300
d) it does however shorten THE ENTIRE move under 2318...
e) to ABOUT 2 HOURS ALL OF IT
f) 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT
d) it does however shorten THE ENTIRE move under 2318...
e) to ABOUT 2 HOURS ALL OF IT
f) 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT
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6/5 IS HERE, 12:01 AM ... @contactabbas1:
a) tomorrow night is the FINAL CHECKDOWN
b) right NOW it still looks like 2300 to me
c) IF and this is A BIG IF...
d) if bulls break 2355 WITH GRADUAL STRENGTH next 7-8 hours
e) then I have to assume that 2315 is the floor
f) and you might have to buy at 2320 in that scenario
g) bc the 2315 window would be like 2 hours
h) that's all
a) tomorrow night is the FINAL CHECKDOWN
b) right NOW it still looks like 2300 to me
c) IF and this is A BIG IF...
d) if bulls break 2355 WITH GRADUAL STRENGTH next 7-8 hours
e) then I have to assume that 2315 is the floor
f) and you might have to buy at 2320 in that scenario
g) bc the 2315 window would be like 2 hours
h) that's all
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i) all at once
j) if you want safety
k) half Wed night, half Thursday night
j) if you want safety
k) half Wed night, half Thursday night
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6/5, 12:19 AM ... I WOULD REALLY WANT TO SEE 57 before the check down
a) even though that "doesn't guarantee 2315 floor"
b) but sure as fuck makes that possible
c) what 2315 floor NOW makes possible
d) is getting past 2400 BEFORE FOMC
a) even though that "doesn't guarantee 2315 floor"
b) but sure as fuck makes that possible
c) what 2315 floor NOW makes possible
d) is getting past 2400 BEFORE FOMC
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12:51 AM
a) odds of that happening is rising very ... steadily
b) it's still a dog but not by a lot
c) be aware
a) odds of that happening is rising very ... steadily
b) it's still a dog but not by a lot
c) be aware
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d) got a real shot at 60,
e) I am starting to think that check down will be 2315-2318
e) I am starting to think that check down will be 2315-2318
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1) I am not going to draft a new draft right
2) be aware that THIS SHIFTS THE ENTIRE CURVE UP
3) but more importantly it opens the door to 2430 BY 6/11
4) AHEAD OF FOMC...
5) not sure what this means ultimately...
2) be aware that THIS SHIFTS THE ENTIRE CURVE UP
3) but more importantly it opens the door to 2430 BY 6/11
4) AHEAD OF FOMC...
5) not sure what this means ultimately...
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6/5, 1:28 AM, AND HERE IS EARLY LOOK WITH PART 7:
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