3000* BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 10-6, FORMULATING ROUTE

2 Okt

10/02, 12:27 AM ET, 2655.25 after a dip to 2653. I said in 10-5 that the break of dashed line would kill blue route. And in "JUST RIGHT NOW #002", I said that means 2627 again. Now I know that it means 2593 and 2572.

The 2570 line is MAJOR SUPPORT, that also gives us the 115-pt correction we need to continue up. But the question is of course, can we hit 3000 still? This one is tough, but I was ready for 2593 low on Friday, a 2573 extrapolated 4x would only throw price of 80 max. So if I am ready to all 3000 before, I should be ready to call 2920 by Halloween.

Admittedly, this doesn't sound as cool as "3000", but we will put an asterisk on 3000 like this 3000*. And then add notes at the end like this:

*When I say 3000, I really mean 2920.

2 Okt

Catatan

1:19 AM, SO I AM WORKING ON THE ROUTE TO END OF THE MONTH AND:
1) it's not obvious we cannot hit 3000
2) in fact the spring we get from the check down is probably better for...
3) the first part of the rally to 2800s
4) long story short:
a) we have a massive rally end starting AFTER NFP checkdown
b) we pretty gave up on the route to 27xx first
c) so we have to complete the 115-125 pt check down
d) which now looks like 113-117
e) that means we will hit 2568-2572 on Friday, before heading back up
5) while I work on the long route
6) I am not adding notes to the short term price action

2 Okt

Catatan

7) but overall, it should reflect orange hi-light in chart at top
8) with the CAVEAT THAT I DID NOT DETAIL FOR 2-WAY VOL
9) meaning that I see 2568-2572
10) but I did not draft for the exact zigzags in chart at top
11) so be aware

2 Okt

Catatan

1:30 AM, hit first box after 48 (chart at top)

2 Okt

Catatan

1:38 AM, I can call 2978, so that's pretty much 3000
a) considering we have to go to 2570 first...
b) that's not bad by any means

2 Okt

Catatan

1:45 AM, think about this right? ...
a) the pattern of the today's high at 2671-72, gave away the short
b) so this is what I mean pattern can be stronger than trend
c) bc trend outright favored higher, and yet losing 2657 means 2572
d) there's no explanation why
e) that's just how it works
f) but what is the difference between pattern and trend?
g) pattern is basically specific number off moves in a defined time frame
h) that repeats a specific way to to signal a specific outcome
i) despite what trend may say
j) so trend is not the ultimate arbiter
k) but it should be in order of importance:
1) trend
2) pattern
3) obvious wave counts like EW and rally sizing w/ Fibonaccis...
4) all fall under pattern

2 Okt

Catatan

1:51 and this why the correct price action model must be:
a) a continuously binary model
b) bc no matter how good it looks
c) you can only evaluate through probability of up or down
d) because the correct call is not about getting it right or wrong
e) the correct call is CALLING IT BOTH WAYS AND LET PRICE DECIDE
f) like chart at top
g) that would've been the correct call while it was still 2662
h) this is why I said in 10-4 that under "2662 is a problem"
i) it's only a problem is you are not aware of the range of outcomes
j) if you knew the range, then it wouldn't be a problem
k) you can bet it both ways if the vol is high enough like straddle
l) but I digress

2 Okt

Catatan

2:26 AM, the second box is not deep enough
a) the floor there is 2615-2619
b) that's it, have a good night

2 Okt

Catatan

2:46 AM, this wont move seriously under 2642 until NY day session
a) and should hit 2617 by end of NY session
b) so 13-14 hours from now

2 Okt

Catatan

2 Okt

Catatan

3:01, more zig zag then that hi-light
a) or more 2-way vol
b) which is same thing

2 Okt

Catatan

3:16, short term trend maps too complicated
a) long story short we are going to 2572 by Friday afternoon
b) and obviously not a straight line
c) I gotta sleep now

2 Okt

Catatan

2 Okt

Catatan

7) or if t does go down
8) it's going to be VERY zig zag until Thurs 2-3 AM

2 Okt

Catatan

5:35, 2653.xx bulls running out of momentum.

2 Okt

Catatan

8:28 RESPONSE TO ADP GIVES US A CLEAR ROUTE DOWN

2 Okt

Catatan

9:06, no it doesn't. I thought I have the route. But its obvious now I don't.

2 Okt

Catatan

9:14, but it's the only way to I have to "drop down 80 bullishly".

2 Okt

Catatan

so here's 10-7: